Welcome to Meet the Leader. I'm Linda Lasina, and I'm very excited to introduce you to Kristalina Georgieva. She is the Managing Director at the International Monetary Fund, and she's going to share some new research on the complex ways that AI is going to be reshaping work, what that might mean for jobs and paychecks, and also what's needed to make sure that we're prepared. She's also going to help us understand what's ahead for the global economy. How are you, Kristalina?
I'm very well. Happy to be with you.
Oh, pleased to have you. I wanted to get started here. Every year starts with some measure of economic uncertainty. But what is different in 2026?
What we are seeing is that uncertainty has settled as the new normal. My message to everybody is: learn to think of the unthinkable, and then stay calm. Adapt when the unthinkable happens. I don't think anymore that we will go back in a world of predictability. Why? Because the world now is truly, genuinely multipolar. Because technology is moving so rapidly, changes are happening so fast, because we have other factors like climate change hitting on countries, and demography has split the world into aging, shrinking populations and growing, youthful populations, very often seeking for jobs and the jobs are not there. A complex world, and I think 2026 will be another year in which we will have to learn how to live, operate and prosper in this world.
Absolutely. The IMF just released its economic outlook, that was just yesterday. What might surprise people about some of the trends?
The biggest surprise, I believe, is that we have upgraded almost everybody. We have upgraded our projections to now 3.3% for this year, 3.2 for next year. And that brought us back to what we were projecting in October, before the tariff tensions started. And the question is, why this resilience of the world economy? What are the factors defining it? And we came up with four. One: the private sector. Almost everywhere on this planet, the government moved out from where it doesn't belong — running companies — and the private sector stepped forward. It is more adaptable, more agile, and we see the benefits of it. Two: trade tensions did not materialize on the scale people feared. In fact, the impact of trade on growth is muted, and we are encouraging people, especially now when there is some reappearance of trade tensions: please keep it this way.
Three, we see AI as a very powerful driver of growth and potentially prosperity. And four, and something that we don't talk much about: our governments actually are doing a pretty decent job in deploying policies to support businesses and support households. So, we have a story. What is surprising in this story is the incredible resilience of the world economy. And I think we need to not only understand why it is resilient but nurture this resilience for the future, because going back to your first question, we are in a world of uncertainty. Do everything you can to have better buffers, a better position in this world.
You talked a little bit about the trade tariffs and sort of the muted impact that they had. Why is that? Why is it that trade tariffs didn't dent forecasts like we thought they would? Why is that?
Two reasons. One, the announced tariffs did not materialize at the level they were announced. In fact, what we have seen are deals, exceptions, corrections in the tariff path. And two, very important: we did not see tit for tat. The majority of the countries have said, we want to trade, it is good for us, especially medium-size, smaller economies, and therefore we choose to have the rules of trade apply. So these two factors — more muted impact from the US and no tit for tat, no accepting restrictions to trade — they are the reasons. Now let me be very clear: we should not take resilience for granted. We have to work to sustain good conditions, and ultimately it is for the well-being of people.
And how do you see geopolitical instability affecting the economy in the year ahead? What are you thinking about when it comes to that?
Very clearly, geopolitical factors are now very significant for the world, and they play a role both disruptive and positive. We often talk about geopolitical clashes. We forget to recognize that there are geopolitical positive developments, especially in the form of regions coming together, trading more with each other within a region, and building more bridges with other parts of the world. The fact that the world is now moving to multipolarity also means that there is positive energy coming from parts of the world that are becoming more dynamic, economically stronger, and that are modeling cooperation, and that I think deserves more attention than it is receiving today.
When you look at 2026, what are you thinking about when it comes to risks, and what are you thinking about when you're thinking about bright spots?
So in terms of risks, there are three that are very clear. One is geopolitical disruptions that can lead to accidents in terms of the functioning of the world economy. Two, artificial intelligence enthusiasm leading to increase in financing, but not to increase in profitability, and therefore possibly pushing investors away. And we know that investors often act like a group: one moves, the others follow. And three, I dare say the thing we cannot see but it's likely to happen — remember COVID, we didn't see it, it happened — natural disasters affecting countries and regions. We don't know it, we don't see it, but it may happen to us.
Trade disruptions remain a risk. We believe that so far rational decision-making has led to trade retaining its role as an engine of growth. I personally believe that, never mind how we act in the short term, trade will continue to be an engine of growth. We have traded with each other forever. And the way I think of trade is like water: you put an obstacle, it goes around it. But please, let's not put too many obstacles. Let the water flow.
As leaders are looking ahead to this year, in your mind, what would you think that they should be prioritizing? What should they keep top of mind?
Well, overwhelmingly globally, one thing that has been lagging is the desire to have a peaceful world everywhere. Right now we have some very visible wars, like the one in Ukraine, like the conflicts in Sudan, in the eastern part of the DRC, the Democratic Republic of Congo — far too many places there is this flare of conflict, and I don't think that we are putting enough attention to mobilize the world, from politicians to private sector to people, to recognize that war — a war — is a horrible, horrible thing. I was just in Ukraine, in Kyiv, and people live in fear of what may happen to them, to their families. And I cannot stress enough: if you think of humanity, this is the number one problem we have to aspire to solve.
Two, I see the risk of fragmentation deepening, and a fragmented world is, of course, weaker — economically weaker, socially weaker. Three, how we are going to take advantage of the miracle of artificial intelligence? Is it going to help the majority, if not all, to have better opportunities, better jobs, better lives, or will it be a divisive force in which the accordion of inequality opens widely? And I think if you step back, what do people want? They want peace and well-being for them, for their families. When we simplify our objective to how can we have that for everybody around the world, I think we get our jobs quite clearly defined. For me, for my job, this means doing all we can to help our 191 members make good policy choices for their people.
You talked a little bit about trade and growth, but in general, rapid growth. How should we be thinking about this? Is rapid growth still realistic, or do you think that maybe we are entering into something fundamentally different — a new era?
