Good afternoon, gangsters, gangster compound nation. So excited to welcome everybody back. We are live. It's 5:00 p.m. on a Tuesday, so you know what that means. It's time for your favorite show. What are your thoughts? My name is Downtown Josh Brown. My co-host is Michael Batnik. Michael, say hi to everyone.
All right, get the point. All right, guys. We're in earnings season. That snuck up on us. Did it sneak up on us?
It always does. It always does every time.
Yeah, we're I mean, we're This is it. Like, we had some we had some big ones come today. We hit some earnings last week and it's it's on it's like I don't know what else to say. So we're going to get into all of that. The banks reported today. There's some stories there that I think are worth you guys paying attention to. And we have a lot more to do. Before we do so, I want to thank our sponsor IMGP DBI, better known as the DBMF ETF, aka the ETF with the sloth mascot. Josh, it's it's the world's largest managed futures ETF. Feel like the world's changing fast?
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Very cool. Great job. That's a 10 out of 10 read, Michael. No flubs, no stumbles. You really you really brought it home.
Been reading for 38 years.
All right. I know I know we got all the regulars in the chat. I want to say what's up to everybody all at once. In particular, Slum Grub Gabillionaire says, "Boys, I didn't eat enough carbs today. What should I eat?" Michael, do you have a suggestion? What's your go-to carb? You have like a like when you're when you're really craving and you know you shouldn't do it, but what do you do? Like what's your what's your move?
So, here's what I would do. Go down to a French bakery. Get an entire baguette, like four foot long baguette. The kind that you can't walk out of the store carrying it sideways.
No, baguettes are hard to eat. They're a little bit little bit little.
Let me finish. Let me finish. Put the baguette in the car. Put it in the trunk so no one sees it.
Stick it out your window.
And that you stick it out your window. Right. That that could also work depending on the temperature. On the way home supermarket, get yourself one of those little tubs of boursin cheese. You ever had that?
No, I never heard of it. Boursin cheese.
It's like a French herbed cheese.
It's It's soft. You spread it. It's Rip that baguette in half, spread the boursin cheese, and your eyes will roll back into your head.
I'm tell I'm telling you, it might be it might be up there with sex.
That was that was oddly specific.
Well, listen, they ask me for my opinion. I'm trying to help.
Any other questions in the chat?
Yeah. Any other carbohydrate related? Let's do protein.
Matt Steic reminding everyone I am salt of the earth. That's right. With the boursin cheese. All right. We do have to make an announcement. We our advisor call today was very salt of the earth.
It Yeah, it was almost I thought it was I thought it was important.
All right. We we told everybody if you want to get the first crack at at our big event in New York City to sign up for the Compound Insider this morning, we did the ticket drop. I'm told we have sold a ton of tickets already, which is really exciting. And I want to let you guys know. Tickets are now officially live for the Compound and Friends on Broadway. That's right. And you could see we are bringing out an all-star group of guests. We've got Adam Parker, Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe, Encore Crawford, and the one and only Tom Lee. They'll be joining Ben Carlson, Michael Batnik, and I on stage. This is legit a Broadway theater. We're going to sell it out. You guys can be there. Nicole is dropping the link in the chat as you can see. We'll also put that below us into the description.
You know what? Now that you mention it, maybe we'll do something with baguettes. No, but you know what? There will be. We're going to be we're going to be talking about the outlook for 2027 with the smartest people I know. Like Nick and Jessica, are you kidding me? Adam Parker, Tom, like think think about what we're doing. Encore is coming. Like who else do you want to hear from in December about the year to come? Like that's my dream. That's my dream lineup. So I don't know. And then and then you get me, Ben, and Michael on this on the side.
Oh, we're going to be like twirling can. We got to We got to like do we got to do a number. No.
Put that graphic up one more time.
Look at that. We got Ben is uh Simba. Michael is the Phantom of the Opera.
And I get to be Hamilton cuz I commissioned the uh I commissioned the design from our in-house design genius Daniel Parah. Um all right, we're going to see you guys in December. Thank you so much for scooping up those tickets. This is the biggest event we've we've ever done for the show and uh I know you guys will come out represent. Um I rang the opening bell to celebrate 15 years of the Halftime Report this week and show you guys some picks. So, this is the current cast. There's a few people missing like uh Bill Baruch and Malcolm and Bryn wasn't there. Like, we had a few people not there, but as you could see, um I am now tied with Joe and Stephanie as the three longest lived castmates on the Halftime Report. Obviously, Scott is the host. He doesn't count, but we were all on the pilot episode.
And I I don't remember who else was on it. Um, I can't I tried to find it. I couldn't find it. But, uh, that was October 2011. Michael, does it does it feel that way?
Who Who's the fellow all the way on the right next to Shannon?
Oh, great question. That is our executive producer, Kevin Flynn. And I met Kevin probably 12 years ago when I was doing hits in the afternoon. He now produces both of the shows that Scott is on, 12 and 3. It's obviously a lot of cross-pollination with the guests and the topics. Um, but Kevin effectively runs the show. So, if we ever do anything that pisses you guys off, now you know who to at on Twitter. Um, but as I was as I was on the the balcony ringing the bell, which was a huge honor, and the New York there I am. The New York Stock Exchange pulled out all the stops for us. Show a couple of more and then I'll get to the point. Um, we have Scott signing the Here's me signing the wall, which is kind of cool.
But wait, Josh, I want to ask you, does it feel like 15 years? Like, what does it feel like from from your purview?
Some days it feels like 15 years, and some days it feels like 5 years. It's just like uh here's Scott signing the book. So, this book is everyone that's ever rung the bell. Um, literally on like on the books, which is pretty cool that they let us do that. Do we have anything else? And here we are down at the lower podium. Um, I mean, everybody was really excited. There's Joe and Stephanie signing the wall. Everybody was really excited to be there. And, uh, how old is Josh in the chat? Great question. I was 34 years old on the premiere episode of uh Halftime Report. And today I'm 49. So, that's a big difference right there, right? Like the market the market opinions of a 34 year old versus a 49-year-old, right? I mean, I I know my opinions about a lot of things have changed since then. So, um, I thought it'd be fun to take a look at the 15-year scorecard, like everything that's happened in markets and money since the first episode of Halftime Report when we went on the air uh up until now. So, Michael, I'm just going to I'm going to uh share some of these with you and feel free to jump in and react at will. The S&P 500 uh or what are we showing here? Oh, the size of the stock market. Let's start there. It was 11.9 trillion back then. It's 75 trillion today. Is that surprising to you?
I can't believe it. I really can't.
Okay. Now, the economy has only doubled. What does that tell you? The economy was 15 trillion. Now, it's 32.
The stock market has sex.
I mean, it's very simple. Uh, corporate America, specifically the tech giants, are much better at growing a lot faster than the rest of the economy. I think the message is that the stock market investors have won the last decade and a half.
Versus the people that are not stock market investors.
Well, here here is here's the rundown. The Dow is up 360%. The S&P 573. The NASDAQ has more than 10-x'd.
It was 2479. It's 27,000 and change. It is up 1,050%.
And can I tell you something? Wait, can I just say one thing? There hasn't been a day since over the last 15 years that I felt like market's going a lot higher. Like honestly, I mean, I'm sure there's, you know, times where I'm more bullish than others, but like the the a 15x or 10x, whatever it is, I can't believe it.
Well, this is part of the thing like
like it's been scary the whole way.
Yes. But my shtick on the show for 15 years and counting, including today, is stop crying and buy more stock. Like, this has been my stance all the pretty much the entire time. There have definitely been times where I was nervous or cautious or whatever, but like basically this is what I think I brought to the table for the show.
I would agree with you. I I don't know that I'd go as far as to call you a national treasure or even remotely close to that. You you could if you need to.
Salt of the earth, national treasure,
but it is undeniable that you have impacted the lives of millions of investors all for the better if they listen to you.
I'm crying. Um, the Russell 2000 is only up 329%. Gold is only up 154%. Silver 90.
Yeah, we have more. What else do we I know I thought we had this in charts form. Never mind.
Yeah, there we go. All right, this is where it gets crazy. Did you know, Michael, natural gas, Henry Hub, is negative 6% since we started the Halftime Report?
Well, given given as close as I track natural gas, I'm not surprised at all.
No, but just like or it's not it's not true to say, oh, you could have just invested in anything. No, large cap tech was the thing to invest in just on the robots. Like, that was the thing. Um, the people making tactical calls, crude oil is only up 8% in 15 years. Holy If you were one of these real assets investors, I hope you are a great trader cuz there's nothing there. Nothing. Um, the the uh size of the ETF market is one of the big changes. It was 954 billion. Now it's 16.3 trillion. Is up 1,600% in assets. Um we did the US economy. Um so basically the story of the last 15 years is the economy doubled, the stock market grew by 6x, tech stocks 10x and ETFs 17x and the real assets gold plus 150, oil flat, natural gas down. Like I you're cherry-picking. It's 15 years. I'm cherry-picking. This is the time frame.
One other one other thing that is is noteworthy to me is that you've been saying the same message for the entire time for the most part in terms of long-term investing and you didn't do it pretending that bear markets don't happen or that there's not legitimate risks like I think you did it in a very sober fashion.
Thank you, Michael. Let's look at the top five stocks then versus now. We do have a graphic for this.
This is money so good. Um, first of all, Nvidia is worth four times the entire 2011 top five stocks combined. Just process that. The top five stocks in August of 2011, Apple, Exxon, Microsoft, IBM, Walmart. In that order, Apple was 350 billion. And we thought that was outrageous.
Can I tell you something about this? This really, this me up for a while. Um, Apple $355 billion in 2011. Throw off for a second. I remember uh somebody close to me, a family member who had been a long-term shareholder in Apple probably in like 2013. So Apple was $500 billion. And he said to me, "The next Apple is Apple." And I just thought it was the dumbest thing I've ever heard in my entire life. And it made me it made me like, "Huh, this what does this clown know about anything?"
Like other words in other words, we missed Apple. It already did. It already appled. But Apple in in in place as a placeholder for large tech, right? It could have could have it could have been any stock, but it happened to be Apple and he happened to be 100% right. And it has 10-x'd since I laughed. So really, I just I I this the size and scale and the growth of the the market is is astounding.
And this happens all the time. Um because like Exxon, think about how long Exxon was one of the largest companies in America. like that decades, right? Um I do think it's interesting the sector weights.
So put up this tech took over the S&P. I mean, everyone knows this, but tech was 19 or 20% in 2011. It's 37% now.
That is above the dot-com peak when it was 34%.
And and this probably doesn't even include communication services,
right? It's probably closer like 50.
It could be right. If you throw if you put back in Netflix, Google, Meta,
forget about it. It's half the market. Um, energy was 12% in 2011. It's 2%.
What the hell is that noise? Is that a baby?
You have a baby? I don't have a baby here.
I don't I don't think it's a baby here. Um, energy went from a top three sector to basically the size of real estate and utilities. And when you see energy stocks running up, which many of them are now doing, I want you to remember this could go way further and way longer than you might actually think is possible. Like this absolutely could could run. Um the financials aspect is pretty interesting.
Like you can't disrupt that.
Yes. I will also tell you the millionaires in the United States. M.
So here, let's put this up. What are you type? What could you possibly be typing?
All right. Um, millionaires in the US 2011 versus now. So this is inclusive of the home. Okay. So this is net worth. In 2011 there were 10 million and today there are 23.6 million millionaire households. That is a change of 13.5 million new millionaire households over the last 15 years. So that is 2.3x. There are there were 440,000 new US millionaire households created just last year. The US now has 40% of the world's millionaires. If you had to if you had to rank like on the scale of 1 to 10, how much of that growth in millionaire households is due to the stock market versus all I know there's other factors, but versus all other factors. What would you like would you say that statement is true as like a 10 out of 10, an 8 out of 10? Like what would be your what would be your take on why we have added 13.5 million new millionaire households?
Let me put it this way. If there's a pie chart to explain the growth of the rise of millionaires, I would say 85% of it is due to the stock market and then 15% and is like uh real estate and then everything else
right like and and people say oh what about startups right startups that eventually go public
like I feel I feel like we have to include the private
it's a stock it's a stock market and then a little bit of real estate. cuz the growth in the in the private assets is a byproduct of a bull market for public stocks. So it really this is what separates United States from all other countries. We have forced people kicking and screaming in some cases into the stock market. We have based the entirety of retirement around um the equity market growing like we don't do pensions in this country. This is how we do it and it it's working. Um for speaking of 401ks and retirement balances 2.9 trillion in September 2011 today almost 11 trillion that's $272% almost a quadruple.
You know what's great about this? Yeah.
So, the stock market is obviously very unevenly distributed, right? Rich people, the mega wealth, but not in this. Bill, Bill Gates owns a lot more stocks than all of us combined. But look at the 401k. That is pretty damn There's a lot of equality in the 401k plan. And it's 11 trillion.
Spread out, not evenly, but like pretty damn close.
That is as egalitarian as it gets. Anyone with a job at a at a company or corporation that's got a plan is able to access it.
And we all we all have the same limit. We we right all employer um defined contribution plans which is 401k um gone from 4.3 trillion to 15 trillion total US retirement assets 18 trillion to 51 trillion. So that's inclusive of IRAs and 403bs and all the rest. That's a that's a triple. Um retirement assets today like invested retirement assets are now 33% of all household financial assets. We have 70 million people in this country currently contributing to 401ks.
Um the last thing we're going to do, US stock ownership. I thought this was interesting. It is not linear and it is not growing. It has had ebbs and flows. In 2011, 57% of Americans own stock in in by the 2013 2016 period. That number had fallen to 52% which is the lowest that Gallup says they've ever recorded. We had a rebound to 58% by 2022, probably thanks to the meme stock craze, uh, and people sitting at home opening brokerage accounts. We hit a high in 24 and 25 at 62%. Um, or a local high. Um, the Federal Reserve says 58% of families held stock as of 2022. So, we're sort of bouncing around in a range that's not on its way to 70% of households. Um, and maybe that's part of the problem that the Trump accounts are meant to address because that number should be growing as the stock market grows. Do you agree?
Yes. And credit uh Michael Dell and his wife, $6.25 billion. I mean, holy
