Welcome, Raging Moderates. I'm Scott Galloway.
So before we get started, please subscribe to support our show and stay up to date on all the news. Also, I have another podcast. I don't know if you've heard.
This is the first time hearing of this.
Yeah, I have another sister-wife, but there's a lot of different dimensions around this relationship such that you should not be threatened. Her name is Kara Swisher. She's fond of glasses and texting me late night and berating me. But anyways, we're taking our show on the road. It's our, I think, our third live Pivot tour across the US: Minneapolis, Los Angeles, Denver, San Francisco, and New York City. Grab tickets before they sell out. I believe we're already, we're close to sold out in San Francisco and New York City because she's popular in San Francisco and people like to hate-watch me in New York City. Grab tickets before they sell out. You can get your tickets at pivottour.com. That's pivottour.com.
All right, as we're doing each day up until the race, we're going to have Jess call on her background as a pollster and her PhD in data sciences. Was that, was that what it was?
It was in political science, but it was a data-based PhD, so we just like mashed them together.
All right. So let's, let's look at the map we're watching with just 19 days until election day. And here's where things stand. In Texas, a new Marist poll has James Talarico leading Ken Paxton by two points. A new Suffolk University poll has Troy Jackson up two points over Susan Collins. And in Florida, Cal gives Democrat Angie Nixon just a 9% chance of winning the Senate seat. Any thoughts anywhere, anywhere on the map where you want to start? Jess, anything, anything interesting or any new developments in the last 24 or 48 hours?
There have been a lot of debates. They're continuing, and James Talarico had a town hall last night which Ken Paxton was invited to participate in and didn't. I thought he did a stellar job, and I just wanted to say something about his fundraising. $64 million this summer. It's the largest third-quarter haul of any Senate candidate in history. He's now raised $134 million in total since he launched his campaign. He will still be outspent by Republicans. And I was talking about this yesterday with Aaron that the money differential isn't hitting as hard because the Republican ads are not resonating with people the same way as the Democratic ads are. But there is still this huge cash advantage people should pay attention to. I'm glad we highlighted that Angie Nixon at just 9%. It is Florida, and I know that miracle things are going on potentially in like, in Iowa, Alaska, or Texas. I just don't think Florida is in the same conversation there. And if you're donating, you might be better served by giving to David Jolly, who seems to have a very competitive race with Byron Donalds on the gubernatorial side. And generally speaking, I just wanted to say something about these governor's races and covered this for the Monday Rage, our newsletter, which I hope everyone is receiving. It's less sexy to talk about governor's races, save for Rob Sand, who is sexy. But the Democratic Governor's Association is pumping an enormous amount of money into races that we should be focused on. You know, obviously expanding in Texas, and we're going to have Gina and Yosa on the podcast, which I'm psyched about, but Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa, like I said, Michigan, Nevada, there are a lot of races that deserve your attention and they have big implications for the future of governance in this country. Governors serve as a backstop against the Trump administration. They also are the guys who just, like, guys and gals who just get [__] done for people within the state, right? Protect your health care, expand rights, quality of life stuff, tracked right to your governor. So, just be mindful of the governor's races, too, as we all get jazzed about the Senate map.
Yeah. And of course, I never miss an opportunity to talk about how important I am. I was in my second regent meeting, and I think that, I know this is public, but they put up a couple slides on what they call the compact with the governor's office in California and everything he committed to the University of California and then everything the governor demands in return in terms of enrollments, performance at the universities, access to financial aid. Just, it is a very thoughtful, rigorous document, and the University of California has really excelled over the last decade or eight years while the governor's been in office, in large part because of this compact. Not only the resources the governor's office has provided, but the demands that in exchange for those resources. So the governor in every state has a real impact on your kids' ability to access affordable education. A lot of people say these local races, to your point, are actually more important because Washington suffers from such incredible gridlock that in terms of what actually happens to your household, your roads, your school system, local taxation, your fire department, the crime in your city and your community, it's up to the, it's up to the local person. And generally speaking, the people who usually run for president are governors because people want someone with some operational or executive experience. Anyways, thanks for that, Jess. We'll, we'll bust right into the next part of our show. Republicans are bracing themselves to possibly lose the US House of Representatives in just a few weeks. The numbers have been turning in Democrats' favor, while polls show competitive races in parts of Kentucky, North Carolina, and Nevada that Trump carried by, get this, 10 points or more in 2024. Trump has been stumping in red states, including Texas, Ohio, and Alaska, where Republicans wouldn't typically have to fight to hold. Meanwhile, the top super PAC for Senate Democrats is throwing around $7 million into the highly contested races in Michigan and Maine. It feels like the Democrats themselves, it's been distributed, the fundraising has never been stronger for the candidates themselves, but at an umbrella level, it's never been weaker. While in Montana yesterday, Trump had this to say about the state of inflation.
You know, every once in a while you hear somebody say, 'Oh, tariffs caused inflation.' They haven't. Again, we have very little inflation. We have a lot of, you know, energy and stuff, but just if you take a look at just that. So, let's say I didn't do those tariffs and let's say you bought the lumber for just a tiny bit less. Wouldn't be much. Maybe it would be more, but just a tiny bit less. You would also have all your sawmills would be out of business, right? So, they don't talk about that. They never mention that every sawmill would be out of business. Your sawmills are thriving. American sawmills are now thriving.
I get it that he has a lot of energy, except when he's publicly sleeping. But he is not delivering the goods as far as the messaging out on the campaign trail. And I think it's important to keep highlighting the fact that all of these clips that we're seeing of his campaign rallies are in states that he should not have to be in. And this is very different than 2024, where he was expanding the map and he was on the ballot. You're looking at real vulnerabilities in blood-red states because Democrats, like you pointed out, have fielded incredible candidates. In Montana, there's an independent, Seth Bodner, who's running. Go check him out. He is exceptional. But I am struck by the messaging around all of this and how Republicans are refusing to learn from our mistakes. You can't force this messaging down people's throats. And he also said yesterday, which kind of blew my mind, our country is making more money than it ever has made because of the fact that oil is so high at a time, literally the day the inflation report comes out, 3.7%. Gas is up 34% year-over-year. It's the most consecutive days in a year that we've had on record of over $4 gasoline. And this is the messaging that they're choosing. They are just continuing to reinforce to the American people they got us into this mess and they have no plan to get us out of it and they also don't care that they're suffering.
Yeah. So to be fair, because America is a net exporter of oil and energy, it's not that we're losing capital overseas as people might think. The Gulf nations obviously do really well, as does Russia, and gas prices go up globally and the price is set globally, if you will. And because we're a net exporter, you could argue that in fact we do benefit. But the transfer of wealth is the following: it's a transfer of wealth from every consumer in America who, everything they buy, every item in the grocery store, 20 to 30% of the cost is the cost to get that product to the store. So what you have is a transfer of wealth from every consumer in America to oil and gas and energy companies and those shareholders. Now you might think, well, that's not that bad. Well, actually it is. So, okay, Chevron and Exxon are doing just great and home prices are up 70, 80% in some oil-driven economies in Texas, but meanwhile, consumers are feeling it everywhere. In addition, gas prices play an especially important role in terms of branding for the current incumbent party. And that is, think about it, every block or every other block as Americans drive around the nation, they get a scorecard on the current administration in the form of a large neon sign that's dynamic. It changes every day showing the price of unleaded, leaded, and diesel. And so, consciously and subconsciously, every day you're getting either a positive commercial or a negative commercial on current leadership. It's just, it's like they say the price of diapers. Most grocery stores will sell diapers below cost because for some reason moms, who do the majority of the shopping, look at the price of diapers and assign the entire value of the entire store to what is the price of those diapers. So they sell diapers for less than cost thinking that for some reason moms won't notice the price of whatever beef or Progresso or, you know, but they remember what the price of diapers are. Every block there's an ad saying this is what gas costs. And also they didn't learn anything from the Biden administration. The Biden administration kept throwing numbers at people. Meanwhile, people felt like the economy was bad. And all you have to do is walk into any store. One of my greatest joys and disappointments is that my 16-year-old is growing like crazy right now. I mean, he's literally shooting up. And every day, if I'm on the road more than a week, I come home and I notice that he's grown. And then I listen to a Cat Stevens song and start sobbing. But he asked me to take him shopping for back to school or fall. He's on his fall break right now. And something that is just incredibly upsetting is he's a fan of Vineyard Vines, which I just think is the lamest clothes in the world.
It's very WASPy for the Galloway brand.
Hello. Can you speak to him?
I mean, sure. Or I would love.
He was, I took him there because I, like, I don't want to judge him. Fine. And then he started making a move towards belts with whales on them. I'm like, 'No, that's where I draw the line. I'm sorry. That's it. No whales on belts.' Anyways, Vineyard Vines is a premium retailer. I can't get over how expensive everything is. And then in the grocery store, just, you notice just in the last 12 months everything from milk to, you know, Diet Cokes to everything has gotten, and chicken has gotten so expensive. And here's the thing, not to only blame the Trump administration, you had Mark Zandi, the chief economist from Moody's on property markets, and he basically did the math and said that the war in Iran and tariffs have now cost every American household $2,000. It's like telling people to ignore something and it just makes them, it just makes them angrier. And just to go back to some of these races, when Democrats are within margin of error in Texas and Maine, I feel like the map isn't shifting. It's literally tilting. And as you said, Florida is no longer a swing state. It's a retirement community with a voting booth. I mean, that's just, it's just not, it's just not in play. And I agree Jolly is the only hope we have there. And then when we see the president campaigning in Texas, Ohio, and Alaska 19 days out, he's basically defending the fortress. He's not even on the battlefield.
And they're pulling money out of a lot of the battlefield races as well. Marquee Senate races down to congressional races that they actually redistricted to be able to win, like Henry Cuellar's race in Texas, and now they're pulling out of it and they got their dream candidate for that race. I want to say your point about the gas prices being the every-other-block reminder of what's actually going on is so important. And Lakshya Jain, who's a great Democratic pollster, had this chart that said it's the most important one to understand what's going on in this race. And it's the correlation between the gas prices and Donald Trump's approval, and that it's almost all you need to know about what's going on here. And people are surveying, obviously asking all sorts of other questions. And he said this is really the thing that you can just, you know, fix your gaze on this one because it's telling the story on grocery prices. You brought up beef and then even the price of chicken. Another great candidate in a race that we shouldn't even be competitive in is Ty Coleman in Mississippi running for Senate. And Cindy Hyde-Smith, who's the sitting senator, was doing an interview about the cost of things. And they asked her about the price of beef. And she said, 'Well, you could consider another protein.' And he did a hilarious ad.
Pick another protein. [__] I'd rather pick another senator instead.
Pick another protein. She done lost her damn mind. I'd rather pick another senator.
Pick another protein. What the?
Pick another senator instead.
Hilarious. And I've been overwhelmed by the incredible ads that are coming out of these campaigns that we're not thinking about, like Todd Achilles in Idaho and this Mississippi ad. And it makes you hopeful for what is possible, and also the quality of the people that are running for office, because we often bemoan that we can't get the best people to do these things and that we should pay them more and having to be in this inevitable fundraising cycle, and obviously these ads are about fundraising. But I have been really jazzed just to see who's out there trying their hand at winning office, and not just winning office, but taking it in deep, deep, deep, deep red places so that they can chart a better course for the populace there.
Yeah. Just to speak to that notion, I think the candidate quality on the Democratic side has been outstanding.
We have more veterans deciding to run. I think that a lot of people really feel a call to duty and have decided and have seen enough surprises and weird outcomes. I thought, well, why the hell not? We see more veterans. We're seeing more women running. We're seeing more people from our security apparatus who are disgusted with how our government and our security apparatus acquits itself. I think the candidate quality has been outstanding. Let's move literally around the world and get the latest on the war between Ukraine and Russia.
Volodymyr Zelensky says Ukraine will resume striking Russian oil refineries in defiance of Trump's claim of an energy ceasefire. It comes after Trump's Russian diesel deal as well as the sudden loss of some Star Shield access. A Zelensky adviser stated that SpaceX recently imposed a speed limit on Ukraine's drone-mounted Starlink terminals and the country says the restriction is hurting their air defenses. Elon Musk responded on X saying that Star Shield systems are owned and controlled by the US government and that any limits on speed or usage are set by the US military or the president. Let's listen to a clip of Zelensky on Piers Morgan this week.
It's a pity that we are losing, we are losing a strong partner. So this is my opinion and...
You think you're losing America?
