This time in America, but viewers, with great significance for India.
Viewers, next month on the 3rd, America will vote in a crucial midterm election to decide who gets to control both houses of the US Congress or Parliament. The election comes as America nears a point of inflection. A less centrist, more socialist, perhaps arguably, Democratic Party is seeking to win the election to pivot America away from the populist America First nationalism of Donald Trump's Republican Party. Which ideological option American voters choose can prove to be consequential not just for America, but also for India and the world at large.
And to decode the election, we have with us none other than Fareed Zakaria. It's been a while since we spoke, but he's the host of CNN's geopolitical show, widely watched GPS. He's an author and an intellectual, all rolled into one. So, thank you, Mr. Zakaria, for taking the time out.
I want to begin with some basic questions. The November midterms are being billed as this crucial test of Trump's presidency. Now, what are the key factors that will determine the outcome, in your opinion?
I think that more than anything else, the basic question of the public satisfaction with the present course is going to determine which way it goes, and what that suggests is that it will go badly for the president, because Donald Trump is now at the lowest approval rating of any president since Richard Nixon, when he had to resign over Watergate. So, there's no question the public disapproves of Trump, not just disapproves of him, his presidency in generic terms, but when you ask questions about specific policies, with the sole exception of the border, and I don't say immigration, the border, which means illegal immigration. That is the only issue on which Trump, I think, is broadly speaking positive. On everything else the public has a negative attitude, particularly, by the way, on things like tariffs, which frankly surprised me, because you can blame tariffs as a kind of nationalist, you know, kind of symbolic thing, but the public isn't buying it. The public sees that as producing higher prices. The public sees the Iran war as a mistake. The public sees his control of economic policy as having been negative.
Now, there is a reality here, which is that the Republican Party is outspending the Democratic Party by a massive amount. I think, to my recollection, the largest imbalance in funding that I have ever seen. Two, three, four to one; in some cases, it's a ten to one difference. Secondly, the Republicans have done a lot of gerrymandering, which allows them to create what they think are safe districts. But all this said, though, when you ask what is called the generic question, which is who would you rather have run the House of Representatives, for example, or Congress in general, the gap is right now ten points in favor of the Democrats. That is very, very substantial. And sometimes, when the gap is that large, it overwhelms all these smaller issues.
Well, I'll come to the funding aspect of it in a couple of questions, but noted economic analyst Ruchir Sharma argues that Trump is facing a political backlash despite what he calls strong economic growth. So, how do you explain this paradox?
I think most Americans are intelligent enough to realize that, you know, this is the largest economy in the history of the world, very complex, very multi-dimensional, largely driven by the private sector. It doesn't have that much to do with a particular president's policies at any given time. You know, the Federal Reserve probably has more to do with the state of the economy than the government, and it's also taking place because of an AI boom that, frankly, began in the Biden years, has very little to do with Trump. But I would say that the most important piece of this is that this is a very concentrated economic boom the United States is having. It is concentrated in essentially one sector, the AI sector, and that's a broad sector because data centers do involve construction and heating systems and cooling systems and all that. But all that said, it's one sector. It's one phenomenon which is not translating into growth for, you know, higher incomes for most people, and inflation is pervasive.
I don't understand how economists measure inflation sometimes, because it really does feel like there is some mismatch between the way people are experiencing the cost of goods, between the tariffs and the Iran war, and the way it is translating into only, I say, three, three and a half percent inflation. I say only, that's quite high. That's one and a half percent higher than the Federal Reserve wants it to be, but I think people are experiencing inflation as much worse. So, you put all that together and you get back to that basic question: do they think the country is on the right track or the wrong track? And the answer is overwhelmingly negative.
Well, Trump's approval ratings may be low, but that doesn't mean that his funders, like Musk for example, have given up on him. Usually they say follow the money. If money is betting on Trump, then can anyone write off his chances?
Yeah, you're raising a very interesting issue, Rahul. So Trump is, let's say, roughly at a 37 percent approval rating. And I'm now just doing very, very broad numbers, so please don't hold me to them. If you look at Nixon when he was at 37 percent when he resigned, roughly speaking, his approval rating among Republicans was more like 55 percent. His approval rating with Democrats was 20 percent, and that kind of got you to the 37 average. Trump is a... this is a unique phenomenon. He's at an 85 percent approval rating among Republicans. He's at 5 percent or maybe 2 percent among Democrats. So, what you see is a very strange phenomenon: general disapproval of Trump, but in his core voters, enormous support. In his funders, enormous support. So, the base of the party still adores Donald Trump, which does give him a kind of superpower, which is that within the Republican Party, they're all still terrified of him. Nobody will break with him.
Given that the Republican Party controls much of government right now, that gives him an enormous control. So, you know, normally when you get unpopular, you get unpopular with everyone. Less so among your followers, you know, more so among your opponents, but that's not what's happening. It's a highly polarized reality. And here, you know, this is part of a global phenomenon, and I would argue probably there are some parallels in India as well.
You know, whatever one may think of how the general public thinks of Modi, the 37, 38 percent who voted for BJP in the last election are still, you know, fanatically attached to him. And this bifurcation is a new reality we have in democracies, which frankly makes it more difficult to govern. Because, you know, you have this intensely divided electorate, even at moments when you think you're getting some consensus that this guy is good or this guy is bad. No, you know, the composition is still 90/10, not 50/50.
Well, just to digress before we return to Trump and the midterms, Musk, since we're speaking about him, has accused Prime Minister Modi of listening to oligarchs and preventing his company's Starlink from entering India. How do you view this outburst?
Well, Musk, you know, I think it's fair to say that Elon Musk is a genius on matters of engineering and science and technology. He has not shown that much acumen in terms of his political skills or judgment. I think what his play, from what I can tell, you know, I'm not there, has backfired, because what he doesn't realize is that what is happening around the world is a deep, deep suspicion of arbitrary American power, thanks to the president that Elon Musk is supporting. I think a lot of Indians might have been receptive to his argument five years ago, at a time when America seemed much more benign and, frankly, pro-Indian. Right now, people look at Starlink and they say, 'This is American technology. Look at America's, you know, Trump's current love affair with Pakistan and with its field marshal. Look at how they are capriciously, you know, withholding intelligence now apparently from Ukraine after having backed it. Look at how they treat their closest allies in Europe. If we were to rely on Starlink, who's to say if Trump ordered Elon Musk to, you know, shut it down at a critical moment for India, what would happen?' So, I think he misplayed it completely, and my guess is it won't go anywhere.
