MUTARES – Short seller attack completed?! | Mick the Insider aktienlust

Let me say one thing upfront: I, I believe you don't need something like that more than once in life as an entrepreneur. Our business model is of course justified by the fact that we buy companies that are in a turnaround, that we take risks in these company acquisitions, and in the end you have to say, a short seller, whether it's Gotham or someone else, in the first line they want to make money, they want to earn cash. They operate in a gray area in the sense that companies that were affected before us also obtained court decisions there, in Spain for example, regarding market manipulation. In the end, it's a construct that has been set up; you can obtain something in court there, but the enforceability of the whole thing is then, is then, well, zero, I would say. That's why we decided to answer the short attack by reinforcing what we have always said: that we are on a growth path, that a growth path also costs money at the beginning, that we started the growth path in 2020, that we have grown from one billion to almost seven billion annualized, and that we now, after four and a half years — which is a typical holding period for us — now in 2025 have a very full exit pipeline that we are already working on, where our goal is to bring at least eight companies to an exit. We had the attack, the share has recovered somewhat despite the difficult situation in the small and mid-cap segment that we are currently seeing at the Frankfurt Stock Exchange or in Germany. I just came back from the USA, where we opened an office this year. If you're invited in Frankfurt, it's a bit of a depressing barbecue, and if you're in the USA, there is rather — perhaps also due to the new administration from January — more of a sense of optimism to be seen. And therefore, Gotham is behind us. They certainly made a little money on it, but that doesn't burden or impress us in the current situation. And that means, please, Schman, our founder and my friend is called Robin Lee, so we're well positioned when it comes to Batman.

Exactly, that's how we see it. And if something else comes along, who knows, we are prepared for it. If it happens, we keep what we promise. We have a strategy, we have been on a growth path, and next year we will deliver the exits. And with that, we have also done this in recent years — individually, now in a bundle, because the growth path is now taking effect. So we feel very comfortable in the situation we are in.

Goal, very much for me, this is — besides India, besides Asia, and specifically perhaps also Japan — the USA is one of the growth markets of the future for us at Mutares. We have focused very much on Europe in recent years and decades; we have been in the market for over 16 years, we are active in Europe with a footprint and with 12 locations where we are very established, where we see every deal in our spectrum in turnaround, where we have a standing in the market, a brand, where no significant growth rates are to be expected in either revenue or earnings. And the USA for me is a market — I still believe it is the land of unlimited possibilities — and we as Mutares, and the nice thing about Mutares is, we can buy and sell a turnaround every day as Mutares, we can become a millionaire every day, and that is something that the USA embodies even more. And especially in the American market, I believe the topic of turnaround, the topic of restructuring, is something that is rather commonplace for Americans than it is for Europeans. Therefore, I see very, very big opportunities there to develop ourselves further, and I also expect that within the next three to four years we will generate approximately one billion in revenue there.

I believe what you can generally say, now speaking globally with a focus first on Europe, is that everything related to electromobility has fallen far, far behind expectations this year, while everything related to the combustion engine is somewhat above expectations. In total, one has not overshadowed the other. That means our participations that were very strongly involved in electromobility and won orders three, four years ago now have the problem that the call-offs are not coming — and not just 10% less than planned, but we're talking here partly about somewhere between 40 and 70% fewer call-offs on certain models than were planned. In the USA, I believe you can neglect the topic. The latest study I know is electromobility in America under 1%, in California 3%, and if you take Tesla away, it's not even measurable across the whole country. And I believe the path there is still far. What in the USA, however, from my perspective — and here our second segment in technology comes into play very strongly — what first needs to be created in the USA is the network, the possibility to build charging stations at all to cover longer distances. And the US network has grown by 6% this year for the first time in consumption, in capacity that the grid has demanded, also through data centers, AI, and so on. And there we are very strongly represented with companies like the F, or companies like the Quas, companies like the Nem Sofenta, to be part of the build-out of the network and the infrastructure in the USA, so that one can even begin to think about bringing an e-mobility hype to the USA. And in the end, I also have to say, I have family in Texas whom I regularly see twice a year. If you drive from south to north in Texas, you are in the car for more than 24 hours. From their perspective, it's simply nonsense to drive an electric car there. Above all, I mean, the fuel prices in the United States are also so cheap that you don't have to think much about it.

It is, I believe, the one million dollar question. On the other hand, he has made a very experienced and very reputable oil manager the environment minister. So I believe that will have to be observed. But I also believe that the conditions in the USA simply aren't there yet, also because of the distances and so on. It is much easier if you look at Europe. But admittedly, without large subsidies, we're not getting it done here either.

I believe that electromobility cannot be stopped in the long term — but that is my personal opinion — it will only be significantly slower than perhaps originally envisioned. If you look at it globally, there are of course exceptions, and I believe Norway is one of them. It is probably much easier to introduce electromobility across the board in countries like Norway than in the USA. And I also believe that if you want to introduce it now, it would require similar steps as Singapore or Shanghai has demonstrated — that you simply regulate electromobility through, for example, license plate issuance, so that you only get a license plate if you buy an electric car. Those would of course be options.

Probably, yes. I think, I think so. Come on, electromobility cannot be stopped, but it will happen significantly more slowly from my perspective than perhaps envisioned five, six years ago.

We listed Steyr in the Scale segment in Frankfurt three weeks ago with a stake, including a small capital increase. We still hold over 70% of the stake — 70.9%, I believe, to be precise. Steyr Motors is, in the broadest sense, a manufacturer for the mobility segment, let's put it that carefully. Essentially, we're talking here about defense. And we bought the company from Thales in France, who saw it as an extended workbench, and we revitalized the company, made it profitable, and sought external customers. And at the end of the day, our main customers come from everything around the military sector. We have a major customer in Spain, we have Rheinmetall, we have Mauser, we have the US Navy, which uses the diesel engine that we manufacture. They are essentially secondary motors, for example, for the turret of the Leopard tank to rotate or the cannon to lower. So everything important when it comes to defense or armaments.

Well, you have to say that we had a plan for the restructuring, for the build-up, for the unique selling proposition with Steyr in 2022 when we bought it. But due to the developments of the past two years, we received an incredible amount of tailwind, which is why we were able to do the IPO relatively early. Steyr has a net result of over 10 million euros this year with secure order books, to increase both revenue and earnings by 50% over the next three years — 50% every year. I believe we see a similar phenomenon on the flip side: three years ago, you got headwind if you bought something like Steyr, and you got applause if you made very ESG-compliant companies and investments. And I believe that has now turned around a bit as well — that the shirt is closer than the skin, so to speak — and accordingly, this ESG topic, also regarding investment decisions, should no longer be a red flag for us, not as present as it perhaps was three, four years ago.

There are still efforts, of course, to be CO2 neutral — the OEMs are pushing for that — and we are, in all these groups, predominantly Tier One, meaning a direct supplier to the OEMs, and therefore also confronted with their requirements, let's put it that way. The efforts still exist, but the sustainable pressure to implement it as quickly as possible is not really there at the moment. Currently, rather topics like delivery reliability, delivery capability in general, price adjustments, price negotiations, shifting of SOPs — start of productions — such topics are in the foreground, and less the ESG goals of the companies. Because at the end of the day, you have to say, they are selling significantly more combustion engines than originally planned, and significantly fewer electric cars than originally planned as well.