Hi everybody, Ian Bremmer here, and a quick take to kick off your week. It is a horrible week for Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky — a clear public blowup with President Trump, certainly the most significant since a year ago, April, when he was kicked out of the White House and then intelligence from the United States was suspended. I think I would argue at this point that the United States is shifting to a neutral military posture on the war, where President Trump increasingly consistently doesn't care who's responsible for the war, just wants it over, wants it over under any circumstances, and therefore is prepared to put the Ukrainians under a lot more pressure than the Russians.
Also, I would say that President Trump is taking a more favorable diplomatic and political stance towards Putin than he is towards Zelensky. He wants Zelensky out of office, which is aligned with Putin's position. He has no problem with Putin staying as leader. He thinks that Zelensky isn't interested in ending the war, but Putin actually is, and he wants to do business with Russia again, irrespective of if the war is over or not. He wants to engage in terms of energy relations, investment, and would like to do that over the heads of the Europeans.
All of this engagement has been unilateral from President Trump, as opposed to with European allies. It's in very marked distinction from the Biden administration. And Biden was criticized by many, including by the Ukrainians, as not moving fast enough to provide military support for Ukraine, even though a lot of money for Ukraine's defense did come under Biden from the American taxpayers. Biden's position was that the transatlantic relationship is much more important than Ukraine, and so most essential is to try to build consensus and act in lockstep with the Europeans.
President Trump's perspective is wildly different. It is that the Americans would be better off engaging economically with the Russians and ending the war irrespective of Europe's position, and that no coordination with European allies is worthwhile or useful. And indeed, this is Trump's discussion with Xi Jinping in their last meeting in Washington, that perhaps there should be a trilateral meeting, that Xi Jinping could help coordinate with the Russians. Putin now coming out and making the same suggestion. The Chinese have not taken a view on it. But Trump did invite Putin to attend the G20 summit upcoming in Miami, and Xi Jinping is going to be there. Certainly a real problem for the Ukrainians, a real problem for the Europeans.
The Europeans are worried not only that the Americans are prepared to throw the Ukrainians under the bus, but that also here is an opportunity for Putin to expand his own hybrid attacks into European countries, and that the Americans would be unlikely to support Europe in that case if the Europeans are putting all the money into Ukraine — and they are — and the Americans are not. And that means, from Trump's perspective, the Europeans are responsible for continuing the war, as Biden was. Then if the Russians are attacking the Europeans, then the Europeans are part of the problem. It's not — I mean, it's understandable why Putin would do that. He wants to end the war; the Europeans don't.
And this is an existential threat to NATO — NATO where the Europeans still rely on the United States for their defense and yet can't rely for collective security on the United States because President Trump would be unwilling in that circumstance to provide it. Meanwhile, you've got far-right, pro-Russian forces in Europe only doing better, and that's particularly true in France, where after lots of violent demonstrations and riots over the weekend, which the far left provided some cover for, Macron is in office, the far right benefits from. And this means that Marine Le Pen, who doesn't have a coherent economic plan for fixing France's challenges, nonetheless is more likely than not to become president of France next year.
And that means ending France's support and undermining Europe's support for Ukraine, and a willingness to engage and align with Trump on Putin. So this is a serious, serious challenge for the Ukrainians as they enter winter. Yes, a milder winter plausibly given El Niño, but still one where all of their critical infrastructure is going to be targeted and potentially leading to mass outmigration from Kyiv and from Ukraine more broadly back into Europe. Even more strain on the European economies, even more strain on Zelensky if he can stay in power in those conditions.
And Russia, which is being driven into economic ruin by Putin and his war economy, but still seeing significant opportunities for themselves given Trump's changed position and willingness to engage with Putin much more directly than any of America's allies would. I do find that President Trump's public positioning on this — that the Ukrainians are somehow more responsible for the war on their territory than Putin is — to be downright Orwellian. It's like war is peace, ignorance is knowledge, weakness is strength. That's basically what President Trump is saying.
And so much of his failed policies — saying he would end forever wars and now eight-plus months into Iran — would bring prices down, make life better for the average person. Prices are up, and the one that benefits the most is President Trump and his family. He's going to lose the midterms in a big way on the back of that. His popularity, at about 37% blended right now, is the worst of either of his two administrations. And yet he is still the elected president and is still able to drive foreign policy, and the damage that that will cause to the transatlantic relationship and to the Ukrainians in particular is noteworthy and significant.
And so it's going to be a very tough winter for Ukraine going forward. The Europeans are still going to provide the lion's share of support. Whether America will continue to provide any intelligence going forward, it still appears that as of right now that is the case. Whether the US will support Star Shield for Ukrainian defense and for attacks that Ukraine makes against Russia on Ukrainian territory is an open question worth watching very carefully. Certainly no one is watching more carefully right now than Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin. That's it for me. I'll talk to you all real soon.
