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Scott Kirby
Scott Kirby UAL
Chief Executive Officer & Director, United Airlines Holdings Inc
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United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby: Stress from higher oil prices is increasing

📅 Oct 21, 2026 CNBC Television 10 MIN 37 VIEWS 22 SEGMENTS · 4 SPEAKERS
CNBC’s Phil LeBeau and United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby join 'Squawk Box' to discuss the company's quarterly earnings results, impact of higher jet fuel costs, state of travel demand, his thoughts on wealth tax, and more.

What Scott Kirby said

Written from the verified transcript and checked against it. Every figure links to the moment it was said.

Scott Kirby, CEO of United Airlines, discussed Q4 earnings guidance of $0.50 to $1.50 per share, below the street's $1.75, attributing the shortfall to jet fuel costs up $8 billion year over year. He said United will pass on about 72% of the fuel increase, aiming for 100% over time, and remains solidly profitable due to structural industry changes and brand loyalty. Kirby predicted six to ten U.S. airlines will lose money this year, with Spirit already gone, and expects high oil into 2027, forcing competitors to stop flying unprofitable routes. He highlighted Starlink as a tailwind, crossing 50% of flights this week and finishing by end of next year, with status match applications four times normal. On taxes, he clarified his New York Times comments were one non-consensus view, supporting lower income taxes and taxing passive wealth growth for fairness, not as a policy advocate. He also discussed the new Houston terminal, built in 33 months, and airspace constraints.

Key takeaways

  1. United expects Q4 EPS of $0.50 to $1.50, below the street's $1.75, due to jet fuel costs up $8 billion year over year.
  2. United will pass on about 72% of the fuel increase, aiming for 100% over time.
  3. Six to ten U.S. airlines will lose money this year; Spirit already went away, and high oil into 2027 will force more casualties.
  4. Starlink will be on 50% of United flights this week and completed by end of next year, driving customer switching.
  5. Kirby supports lower income taxes and taxing passive wealth growth, but says it's just one guy's opinion, not a policy advocacy.

Numbers and commitments

FigureWhat it refers toTypeAt
$0.50 to $1.50 Q4 2026 earnings per share guidance guidance 0:10
$8 billion year-over-year increase in fuel costs metric 0:34
72% portion of fuel increase passed on to customers metric 0:34
six to 10 number of U.S. airlines expected to lose money this year metric 1:43
50% share of United flights with Starlink this week metric 3:13
33 months time to build the new Houston terminal timeline 9:25

Chapters

  1. 0:00Q4 earnings and fuel costs
  2. 1:08Airline industry losses and pricing
  3. 2:18Competitor casualties and planning
  4. 3:13Starlink rollout and customer gains
  5. 4:45Wealth tax and inheritance tax views
  6. 9:08Airport infrastructure and airspace

Questions asked in this interview

8
  1. 0:10It's jet fuel at the heart of this, correct?
  2. 1:08... happened with the airline stocks, and you look at the fact that if we have higher jet fuel for longer, I'm not going to say it's dead money, but why does an investor want to even be interested in an airline stock in this environment?
  3. 1:41But are you surprised by the price?
  4. 2:18Does oil have to stay at this price well into '27, and then we see the casualties?
  5. 3:06How are you planning on your competitors, you know, not crying uncle, but saying, okay, we've got to make changes?
  6. 3:51For us, put some numbers on how many customers have moved over to you because you believe Starlink has convinced them that this is the place to go?
  7. 7:10Do you put that into your calculus that that could happen?
  8. 9:08The level of commitment in terms of financially and physically, what needs to be done to upgrade it?
Joe Kernen 0:03 ↗
Welcome back to Squawk Box. Let's get to Phil LeBeau with United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby. Hey, Phil.
Phil LeBeau 0:10 ↗
Thank you very much, Joe. Scott, it's good to be here. We're going to talk about this a little bit because we're in a new terminal here in Houston for United, one of your hubs. Let's start first off with the results that you posted yesterday afternoon. And I think the thing that stands out with everyone is your expectation of Q4 earnings of $0.50 to a buck 50. The street's at a buck 75. It's jet fuel at the heart of this, correct?
Scott Kirby 0:34 ↗
Yeah. Well, thanks for being down here with us in Houston. We are excited to open the new terminal. It's pretty remarkable. I'm excited to be here talking to you today on a year when fuel is up $8 billion year over year. And while we're not going to make as much in three and four Q as we were planning to or hoping to, it's a testament to the changes in the industry, the structural changes, but also to decommoditizing air travel here at United, getting brand loyal customers that we're still solidly profitable even in this environment. We're going to pass on about 72% of the increase in fuel. We'd like to get that to 100%. I think with time it does, but it's pretty amazing the resilience of where we are today.
Phil LeBeau 1:08 ↗
But you look at what's happened with the airline stocks, and you look at the fact that if we have higher jet fuel for longer, I'm not going to say it's dead money, but why does an investor want to even be interested in an airline stock in this environment?
Scott Kirby 1:21 ↗
You know, to me, actually, this is a year, particularly with an airline like United, that it demonstrates strong earnings even in bad times. You know, in the past, in tough times, you know, we would go to loss making, you know, talk of all kinds of bad talk. Now we're earning less, but we're still solidly profitable. And we thought oil was going to be higher for longer, so we're not surprised by it. We actually...
Phil LeBeau 1:41 ↗
But are you surprised by the price?
Scott Kirby 1:43 ↗
I am pleasantly surprised. Not really surprised. It's sort of structural because costs have gone up so much across the board. At so many, six to 10 U.S. airlines are going to lose money this year. And when you have a situation like that, you know, and you're coming off of the COVID lows. So while airfares are up a lot this year, they're still down in real terms compared to 2019. And so we're just coming back to a normal where airlines have to price to a level that they can actually at least make a little bit of money. And so I hoped that would happen, but it really has happened this year. I think that's a really strong sign from the investor case for the future that pricing is much more rational now.
Phil LeBeau 2:18 ↗
Last time we talked, you said, look, if we see high oil for a long period of time, high jet fuel, there will be casualties. And you said six of 10 losing money. When do you expect those casualties to actually happen? Does oil have to stay at this price well into '27, and then we see the casualties?
Scott Kirby 2:34 ↗
Well, first started saying it, and one of them, you know, Spirit, you know, did go away this year, which sort of gave a stay of reprieve to a number of other airlines. I think we'll stay high into 2027. You know, I don't know when, or I don't know what they do. There's things that they can do to correct themselves, but they're going to have to stop flying places that lose money. It's actually pretty simple. Running an airline and being successful is simple: don't fly places that lose money. It's emotionally hard, but it's logically easy. And I think higher oil prices, the stress is increasing. I don't know when it's going to happen, but I do think it's...
Phil LeBeau 3:06 ↗
So how are you planning on that? How are you planning on your competitors, you know, not crying uncle, but saying, okay, we've got to make changes?
Scott Kirby 3:13 ↗
You know, we're not planning on that because I don't know, because it's impossible to predict the timing. We're planning for higher oil or higher jet fuel prices and also high industry capacity next year. We're doing reasonably well even in this environment. We've got a big tailwind coming next year, too, like Starlink. You flew last night and didn't have it, and you can tell how different it is without it. We're going to cross the 50% threshold this week with 50% of flights on Starlink. By the end of next year, we'll finish Starlink. We already see customers moving from other airlines. So it's a unique tailwind. Is it going to be enough to get us to double-digit margins? I don't know, it's going to be hard, but it's a really unique tailwind.

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Cite this transcript

APA, MLA, BibTeX
APA

Kirby, S. (2026, October 21). United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby: Stress from higher oil prices is increasing [Interview transcript]. CNBC Television. CEOInterviews.AI. https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3104935/

MLA

Scott Kirby. "United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby: Stress from higher oil prices is increasing." CNBC Television, 21 Oct. 2026. Transcript, CEOInterviews.AI, https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3104935/.

BibTeX 
@misc{kirby2026_3104935,
  author       = {Scott Kirby},
  title        = {United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby: Stress from higher oil prices is increasing},
  howpublished = {Interview transcript, CNBC Television. CEOInterviews.AI},
  year         = {2026},
  month        = {oct},
  url          = {https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3104935/},
  note         = {Speaker-attributed transcript with timestamps}
}