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Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben. Michael, something is happening in the market that I don't think people really thought was possible as recently as 12, 18 months ago. Everything is outperforming the S&P 500 this year. And I'm going to start with the — this is through the close on Monday. You know what? I got a bone to pick with you.
Your attention, it's not there. I feel like we need to go to couples counseling.
There's a lot. I'm sorry. I apologize.
All right. I want right here. What's going on in your life? You got problems?
All right. Figure it out. I'm kidding. All right. Everything is outperforming the S&P 500 this year. And so I got Russell — this is through the close on Monday. The numbers don't matter because things are changing today, but the Russell 2000's outperforming by — it's like doubling the S&P. Small cap value outperforming by a lot. Large cap value, REITs, midcaps, emerging markets, dividend stocks, all outperforming the S&P 500, some by a very large margin.
I don't think anyone thought this was possible before, and I think the only way people thought this could happen is if the S&P 500 had been falling, and it's up through the close on Monday, up close to 10% per year. And so I think that the idea would be — we talked about the dispersion thing last year, last week, remember that happened in the tech bubble, and then you had this other diversification stuff work because the S&P didn't in the early 2000s. Now it's working when the S&P actually is having a pretty decent year. This is surprising.
Yeah. Because the MAG7 are not participating in the rally, and that is keeping a lid on the S&P 500 returns. It is weird. I don't think that anybody could have predicted that they would take a backseat and the rally would broaden out. It makes a lot of sense why this is happening. I saw —
Not even really keeping a lid on it, though. It's up 10% six months through the year.
True, true, true, true. I saw a chart this morning that the average PE for Microsoft, Amazon, Google and one other name are at their lowest level in the last five years. Microsoft is trading like death. It looks terrible. Not surprising. It is the largest software stock in the entire world. So AI is disrupting software. Okay, makes sense. Obviously Microsoft has many things. It's not just a software stock, but that's what it's trading like. Meta is trading terribly as well. Well —
Look at this next chart I have with all the drawdowns. Microsoft is down 33%. Meta's down almost 30. Oracle is almost 50% off the highs. Netflix is still — Netflix is crashing again. Are you still a holder there? So 45%.
I own Netflix. I am down 30%. I don't think I've — I can't say ever. In the last 10 years, I've never been down 30% on a stock. It's just not my style. I cut my losers fast. Netflix is my smallest position, and I'm very comfortable owning it here. In fact, I hope it goes a lot lower because I would be very comfortable buying a decent amount. Yeah, not to get on Netflix specifically, but the transition from a growth stock to a value stock is very messy. And I think that's what's happening right now with Netflix. All right, whatever. We don't talk about that.
So we also have Google down a quick 13%, Amazon down 15%, Tesla's down 17%. Like this is to me — SpaceX is down 25% from the highs. The stock's been trading for a week, whatever. I think this is good news. The market is doing okay and all these companies that people have been relying on forever are getting dinged. I think this is great news for the market.
It's not great news if these are your biggest stocks. So, I don't want to be insensitive. It sucks when people — I don't like when anybody's losing money. But if you zoom out to the macro level, assuming that these hyperscalers don't completely fall apart, because right — like yeah, it's good now, but if Microsoft's down 60, that wouldn't be so great for the overall market. I think the story makes sense. You're seeing the erosion of the halo that these stocks had. And I can't believe I just used Josh's word to describe that, but like the invincibility cape that these stocks had with all their — they're gushing free cash flow, and finally the market is saying, 'Hey, wait a minute. Like you're spending pretty much all of your free cash flow on capex. Asset light was good. Asset heavy, not so good.'
Yeah. What if these companies disrupted — they literally disrupted themselves by doing this. The Maudlin was on Koo's podcast last week, the intangible economy, and he was talking about the fact that these companies — this is a huge, huge risk that they're taking, and he kind of said, listen, I don't know that they really understand the risk they took by doing this, by getting into the more physical world, by building the data centers and becoming less asset light, and maybe their margins go down by a lot, and the fact that they're not as intangible as they once were. This is a huge risk. And is it possible that these companies disrupted themselves and all these other parts of the economy and the world are the beneficiaries of that?
Yeah, I don't think they didn't think about the downside of it. Like I think that they're probably spending a lot of time thinking about that. But they all said the same thing. This is an — we view not participating as an existential threat. We have no choice. So basically —
Yeah. True. But is Mark Zuckerberg like, 'Oh no, my stock's in a 30% drawdown. I made a giant mistake.' I really don't think so.
No, because he's a psychopath. He doesn't think about this stuff. It doesn't impact him at all. Right.
I mean, well, that's the benefit of having a founder CEO with the biggest shareholder. He has the ability to look past — rightly or wrongly, you know, time will tell, but a 30% drawdown, whatever, he's down to his last $300 billion. So, I think a couple weeks ago, we showed the exhibit, a chart about the S&P 500 versus the 493 versus the MAG7. And this lead by the 493 is widening over both the S&P and the MAG7. This is honestly — this is very surprising. It is.
Yeah. We don't have a chart showing the difference between the two. Like over a three-month period, I'm going to guess that the 493 has not outperformed the Mag 7 by this margin in a long, long time. And I'm here for it. I think it's wonderful.
So, we also got the — we're recording this 9:10 a.m. Tuesday before the market open, which usually when we record, the NASDAQ 100 is down 3% opening pre-market. The South Korean stocks got [__] up last night. They're down 10% or something. This is the second time in what, three weeks this has happened where we've had this like really big flush. South Korea falls a lot. The NASDAQ falls. Again, I think this is good news that they're having this pullback, these two steps forward, one step back, and people keep getting slapped on the wrist in these stocks to go, 'Hey, listen. If you want these high-flyers, these stocks that have gone absolutely bananas, you're going to have to deal with some give and take, these pullbacks.' This is the market biting the hand that feeds you essentially. It's good. I continue to think this is good news until it isn't. And this happens more often than not, but —
Yeah, I have more — listen, more on this later in the doc, but let's keep it moving.
Okay, Morningstar had this piece last week about the number of stocks that are in the triple-digit club, and they looked at stocks this year that are up 100% or more. So they said — sorry, in the past 12 months. So they looked at the Morningstar large midmarket index. So they said in the past year, 42 stocks have more than doubled. That's more than twice the 10-year average. Over in the past six months alone, 12 stocks are up 100% each. Obviously, a lot of them are dealing with the AI infrastructure boom. And so they chart these out, and it's the stocks we've been talking about, SanDisk and Micron and Western Digital and Dell and Intel and all these companies. But then they — this is kind of cool — they looked at how the rolling 12-month stocks up at least 100%. And the biggest one here is the rebound from COVID when there was a huge crash, then they came back. This is crazy. SK Hynix, this is before the little fall yesterday, was up over 300% on the year — not the last 12 months, just this year, six months into the year. So, the fact that you have these 10% flushes or these 3% flushes, the NASDAQ 100, that should be expected when you have gains this big. This is the thing that you talk about, like the profit taking happens faster. It should happen faster when you have —
But obviously it's funny because we keep — I feel like we've been saying all decade this kind of thing isn't normal,
But we just keep seeing stuff that's abnormal becoming normal. These huge moves in short periods of time.
What if that is just the new normal?
That's such a good point. There is no such thing as normal. Every market environment is a little bit different. I mean, what's normal? Like when you say this isn't normal, where do people's heads go to a normal time in the market?
2015. I mean, what do they like? Seriously,
This century there hasn't been one like normal environment, if you want to call it that. So the Wall Street Journal had this chart the other day showing change from the start of the war through last Friday. And it's gold, oil, and the semiconductor index. And if you would have said, 'Hey, we're going to go to war in the Middle East. Oil prices are going to spike 60% on the year or something. What do you want to own?' And it's not gold because gold is down since the start of the war. Gold's down 20% since the start of the war, which is kind of crazy. Oil has essentially round-tripped almost. It's now only up 10% from the start of the war, and semiconductors are up 70%. So you'd say, how do you hedge a war in the Middle East by —
But I guess the point here is that there really are no true perfect hedges for every situation.
Can I be you for a second?
The best hedge is a diversified portfolio.
Of semiconductors, oil and gold, I guess.
Yeah. Goldman Sachs — I think Meb Faber had this one in his Idea Farm email. And if people don't have that, it's pretty good. He pulls together all the best long-form research pieces and sends them out once a week. Meb and his team and Goldman Sachs had some really interesting charts on valuation I thought were worth talking about. So they compare the CAPE ratio to the ROE on stocks, which ROE is always Buffett's favorite indicator, right? And this is something that you and I — I feel like we were really ahead of the game on this, I don't know, 10 years ago,
Saying that valuation should be higher. And this is just showing that valuations have followed ROE higher, which makes sense. It's like —
I think what we did a good job of was putting a little bit of context around the PE because I think a lot of the context — it was just the number with no look-through to the fundamentals of what was actually driving the number. The funny thing is, so if you look at this next one, it's the trailing four-quarter ROE, and it's just shot higher this decade especially. And in my book, I wrote a piece about Buffett talked about how inflation impacts stocks because the ROE is relatively stable over time. He said it's like 12 to 14%. That's like the ROE. He wrote this in the '70s and he's like, the ROE really doesn't change over time, which is kind of funny to think about now because actually technology did change it.
And then finally, this last one is just kind of hilarious.
Wait, hold on. I don't want to leave this. This is so important. The return on equity was one of the most cyclical data series in all of finance. It was down then up, then up and down and back and forth for 45 years until these companies that we've discussed ad nauseam rewrote the physics laws of business of what we thought was possible, what an incremental dollar invested can generate. And by the way, that is changing right now. It's going the other direction for the hyperscalers. And you know, so what's happening with their stock price makes sense and it's really, really interesting.
Yeah, you're right. This is like a new level. But look at the next one. This is kind of hilarious. It shows a semiconductor trailing 12-month net profit margin, and it was at, I don't know, a low of 25% as recently as 2024. It's projected to be 49% in 2027.
We spoke to Dr. Ankur Crawford for a talk book episode that came out on Monday, and she's one of the best voices in my opinion on what's happening in the semis across all areas of the supply chain. And it's really easy to look at the price and say bubble, and I'm guilty of that too sometimes where I say, oh boy, don't like this. And you can have that opinion, but you really need to have an understanding, a little bit of an understanding of what is causing the margins and the earnings to skyrocket, and of course the stocks following suit.
But the question is, what is this incentivized? If other competitors see a 49% net profit margin, what does that do? I don't understand this industry enough. Obviously,
Nothing. My limited understanding is Taiwan Semi is not the type of company that you could just spin up. This is the most high-tech — you know, like, you know the scene, you probably didn't see the new Jurassic World where they walk into the —
Let's see it. It was awful.
Okay. It was terrible. Where they in the opening scene where they walk into the T-Rex — the what do they call that thing? The Dominus, the Dominus, I don't know. Whatever it was, the fake —
The alien T-Rex where they walk in with those hazmat suits and everything is like a Snickers wrapper got in there and destroyed the integrity of the unit. That's what these fabs are like where they manufacture these semiconductors. The amount of technology in these places is to an extreme level that there's a reason why there's only one Taiwan Semi. You can't just bring supply to the market. And that is why there is a bottleneck at almost every area of the chain. There is just a shortage. And I'm not saying anything that's not very obvious and potentially in the price of these stocks, but you can't just bring supply to the market. You can't just snap your fingers and fix the issue.
It is interesting in what feels like we live in a world of abundance now when it comes to technology that there still are bottlenecks.
You'd think they wouldn't exist anymore. It's kind of like how is the Strait of Hormuz still a bottleneck for energy? But it is. There's still these points that make things difficult to expand as much as we want to.
Ben, one of my favorite categories in our doc is the investor behavior section. And I know we're on this beat a lot, but I'm going to keep doing it because I think it's important. There's so many different sources of investor behavior and different pieces of data that you could point to and say, see, XYZ.
Yeah, back to your shoe shine thing from last week.
Whatever narrative you want to spin about the market, you could find it in various sources of investor behavior data. So, for example, according to Citadel Securities — Frank Chapar tweeted this — the day of SpaceX's blockbuster IPO marked the largest single day of net retail stock buying ever recorded by the firm, which handles roughly 35% of US retail trading volume. In fact, nine of the 10 largest trading days ever observed on our platform have occurred in just the last month, including seven during the first half of June alone. Okay, so factually, there is a mania around the SpaceX IPO. Retail traders are having a moment of euphoria. They are trading a lot, a lot, a lot, a lot. Now, is it all bullish trades? I don't know. I don't know how much money went into the 2x SpaceX negative leverage ETF, the inverse, which by the way was down 43% in two days. I think it does. So, bullish, bears. They're trading their asses off. And then I'm on the daily chart book this morning and I see equity positioning. Now, this says consolidated equity positioning. It's a weighted average of z-scores for positioning indicators. And they're looking at — this is from Deutsche Bank asset allocation. Okay. So, I think they have like a pretty good view on whatever pool of investors they're looking at. And if you're looking at this, you see nothing. Equity positioning sits in the 42nd percentile. Still far from crowded, leaving plenty of room for further upside. So, you see this, you go, huh, how do you square this with what I just said? And then I see another one, discretionary. So again from Deutsche Bank, they break down discretionary versus systematic equity positioning, and again nothing there. Discretionary investor is 41st percentile, systematic is 40th percentile, exposure to equities in terms of how allocated you are, and you say, you scratch your head like, I don't get this, make it make sense. All right, well there's another chart from Bloomberg that shows speculators are getting shorter in equities. This shows the net positioning of the S&P, the NASDAQ, the Dow, Midcap futures as a percent of open interest, and it's getting more negative. Huh? They're getting more short in the market. And then you say, okay, okay, well, this makes sense. We're looking at the prime book, so hedge fund exposure gross and net to semiconductors, and it is parabolic. It has gone from 8% at the beginning of the year to 22% today. So hedge funds are all in on semiconductors, and then you see retail piling into semi stocks, flows for all US semi ETFs listed on Bloomberg, completely insane. All right, so like there's just so many different sourcing here. So yeah, everybody is overweight semis. There is —
The DRAM ETF, it went from — we said 10 billion last week, it's now 20 billion. Okay, so clearly, clearly, clearly everyone and their mother is all in on semis. Rightly or wrongly, is it going to fall 30%, 40%? Is it going to double from here? Who knows? But there is a lot of optimism, perhaps beyond optimism, with retail behavior and professional behavior and semiconductor stocks. But everything else, at least according to the charts that I just shared, and I'm sure there's others.
Well, Kevin Gordon had one from Vanguard. He said retail single stock net buying is falling to the lowest since COVID.
I don't know if they just moved all to the ETFs or what.
So anyway, I guess my point is I love these charts as much as the next guy, but I think they're really noisy. And I think you should just consider the source — not in terms of like the underlying data, but who is showing you the data and what narrative are they trying to spin? Because it's very easy to make any case based on any of these charts.
Yeah. What was the Munger quote from a few years ago? If you're not confused, you're not paying attention, something like that. How about this one? I've got a theory. So, Citadel had this really good report that they put out monthly, and they said household cash as a percentage of total financial assets is now 8%. That's higher than it's been at any time since 1990. Okay. What's your theory for why household cash as a percentage of total assets is so much higher than it's been since 1990? Is 20 years ago, right?
In my mind, 1990 is always 20 years ago.
No, 1990 — that was, I was, that was 13 years ago.
Okay. The only thing that I can think of without having thought about this prior to the last 10 seconds is people are putting money aside to save for a house.
I didn't think of that one. I'm going to say no. Here's my thought.
Here's my — I have two theories. I put this out on Twitter and I asked because this is another one of those you go, how could you have a speculative mania when people have more cash than ever? And I think there's two things going on here. One is just we lived through a period that was so long with like financial repression and no rates, and now finally you can get 3 to 4% in cash. People are okay with that. I think this is just baby boomers deciding and people trading down from fixed income and going, I got nailed in bonds when the interest rates rose. I'm going to keep more money in cash, and I'm retiring so I need some money in cash. So I think this is mostly a baby boomer phenomenon. That'd be my theory.
I subscribe to that theory. That's good. That's better than mine.
It's a surprising thing though, right? You go, wait, this is a speculative mania and people are holding more cash than ever. But another — this is the episode of surprises, I guess. By the way, SpaceX, I believe it debuted at 150 when it first opened. Is that correct? Ish.
I think it opened, yeah, something like that. Yep.
It's back down there at pre-market today. So it round-tripped. So who is the bag holder in that scenario then? No, because the index funds — it didn't really, it's still getting there, right? So who counts as the bag holder now?
I guess people that bought at the top and are still holding on. I don't know.
All right. Anyway, that was kind of —
But the amount of trading that happened in SpaceX.
Yeah, the volume was crazy.
There's just so much volume. So I mean, is anybody holding the bag? I don't know. Everybody's trading their ass off. Some people made money, some people lost money.
Okay. Did you put this survey in here? 8% of investors believe there isn't a bubble in AI-related stocks.
Oh, okay. This is interesting. So sort of getting back to what we spoke with Dr. Crawford about, and something that I take — and I want to be careful saying this — a little bit of a worse word, there's still early — does early might be the wrong word here. I think what I'm trying to say, Ben, is I love that there is still so much doubt. Now, just because everybody thinks that this is a bubble, that doesn't mean it's not. Okay, so I want to be very careful. It doesn't mean just because everybody thinks that doesn't mean everybody's — but it does mean that there is a lot of doubt. There are still a lot of people that are non-believers that these things aren't going to come crashing down. So the AI sentiment survey, they asked, is there a bubble in AI-related stocks? And no, there isn't a bubble, only 8%. Now, to be fair, I don't think that I would say that because I think that you could credibly make the case that there is a bubble in some areas of the AI industrial complex.
This is also the way that the survey is worded. It says 51% of people said some but not all AI-related stocks are too expensively valued.
Yeah, that's probably where I would fall. Anyway, whatever.
The fact that there have been people who have been calling for a bubble for 12 years in a row — just because those people continue to call a bubble doesn't mean there's not going to be a bubble at some point, right? You can't use that as a disqualifier. Like, hey, this person's still calling a bubble, that means it can't be. You can't use that as a —
Disqualifier. Correct. If somebody worded this better than I'm going to be, but they said usually — and again, not disqualifying what we just spoke about — usually tops happen because everybody's looking to buy, right? Like when there is nobody left to buy, there will be a top.
But there's still so many people that are just saying like —
But to your point about there being so many different investors, there is no like everyone in the boat anymore. That's not going to happen. There's too many diverse set of investors today.
There is no everyone. All right, let's talk about spending. Mike Cardi tweeted this from Bank of America. Consumer spending momentum is remarkably robust with total card spending rising 5.1% year-over-year in May, the strongest growth in nearly four years. Now, of course, there are some reasons for this, gasoline being one of them, but up five — strongest growth in nearly four years.
I got a question. Whatever you want to say, people are spending.
We've talked about this before. I need someone to explain this to me. So the average credit card rate is somewhere in the range of 20 to 25% depending on who you ask, right? It's really, really high. They pay out the rewards. I know you spend the two to three percent at the vendors, but I keep getting these — I think I sent you a picture of one. I keep getting these things for, hey, 0% rate for 21 months or something. How do we live in a world where the credit cards can charge 25% but also 0% for 21 months?
Well, because the 25 pays for the zero.
That is insane to me. So we did like a 0% financing for our flooring we did last year. Of course, I'm going to take it. They gave me 0% for 18 months. When that runs up, I found a 0% for 21. I'm going to roll some of it over to that and just keep having the 0% go. Like, why? And slowly pay it off. Why wouldn't I do that? I just can't believe that that's actually an option that they give you.
This is like the reverse Robin Hood, stealing from the poor to give to the rich.
It kind of is. And obviously, when you apply, they don't give you a huge limit. And also, your limit, I'm sure, is determined by your credit score. Not to brag, got a good credit score, of course. But I just can't believe that these things exist in today's day and age. That's all I'm saying.
Now, you could say that — and I'm obviously sensitive to this argument — that these rates are punitive. There is a reason why subprime borrowers have to be charged a high rate. It's because they're risky to loan money to. I know that sounds cold, but like it's completely unsecured debt,
Right. All right. More decent economic news from Bespoke. Retail sales breadth in this month's report was remarkably strong with just two sectors showing negative growth. So it's not just gasoline. Following these results, our diffusion index, which measures the six-month average net number of sectors expanding, ticked up to the high end of its recent range. Good news.
All right. Wait, the diffusion thing got me. I don't know, that's just a lot of terminology. Don't worry about it. Don't worry about it.
It's very technical. You want to —
If you look at that chart of retail sales that just had the one, it sprung up from COVID, and obviously part of that is inflation. It's not everything, but that was another thing that is on a completely new level. Like the trend was broken forever, and we just spend more, and everyone has just moved on. It didn't come back.
All right. Hold on. The market is open. Let's see. Nvidia — Nvidia's down 3.4%. Let's take a look at the —
The NASDAQ is down two and a half percent.
Yeah, by the end of the day —
To the point that we were making earlier about everyone in semis — I mean, everyone in semis. Yeah, there's going to be bigger air pockets. So, Micron is down 11%, SanDisk is down 11%. I think Micron reports after the bell. Guess what? Micron could fall — Micron can and probably — what would I know? Micron could fall 30%. Matter of fact, I know I said this every episode.
Micron could fall 30% in a week and still be in an incredibly strong uptrend. Like the shakeouts are probably going to be just as fast as the rise. So —
No pain, no gain, as they said.
Yeah, exactly. All right, cool one from Stripe, Stripe Economics here. They look at new business applications. I think this is one of the things I think —
Wait, why did you skip that?
Rich people complain of the worst. I think it's a good topic.
Oh, you want to do that? Okay. All right.
Yeah, these are the absolute worst.
So, this is from the Wall Street Journal. Okay. America's economic anxiety is rising up the income ladder. And they ask people a set of questions. Do you think America's political and economic systems are stacked against people like me? And the upper middle class people in 2017 said — 29% said yes. In 2026, 65% of people said yes. And also, do you lack confidence that their life will be better for your children than it is for theirs? In 2019, it was 64% said yes. 2026, 86% said they lack confidence that their children will have a better life than theirs.
Stacked against — give me a break.
Now, I know it's hard to live in expensive areas, Long Island being one of them. I am sympathetic to that. But stacked against you — come on. There are people who actually have —
The system is stacked against some certain people.
Yes, we are not one of them.
You're in the upper middle class. Yes. Just that rich people — this is such a big pet peeve of mine. Rich people who pretend or say they're middle class or complain about their lives when there's other people who have actual complaints that are worth telling. I hate it. All right. This is what makes America great. New business applications. This is something we never could have possibly foreseen when we remember all the conversations we had like, what is COVID going to do? Like what is the thing that it's going to change forever? And we had all the — and there was a lot of wrong predictions, there was some right. This is something no one ever would have predicted, that you'd see this huge increase in business applications. There's a reason for it. Back then, so Ernie Tedeschi and team at Stripe wrote about this. They said the PPP program, there was a small business loan program that required an EIN and a little else for eligibility. So you got like these loans, and it was like, hey, guess what, if we make it easier for people to start businesses, they're going to start businesses. And you saw this huge rise in business formation, but then it stuck, and now you're seeing another acceleration. And the team at Stripe is saying there is no program now that's causing this. What's causing it? AI. And so they break it down by saying it's easier for people to start businesses now because of AI. And I think this is actually a very good — this is a great thing that's happening. And look at the numbers from 2005 to 2018 or so. These numbers were stuck. They didn't move much at all. And now we've essentially seen more than a doubling of business applications of people starting their own businesses because it's easier.
Yeah, there is a lot to celebrate about what's happening in the country. It's very, very easy to lose sight of that given all the negativity, and a lot of the negativity is genuine. I'm not trying to sweep the negativity under the rug. There's a lot of shitty, terrible things happening to a lot of people. But there's so much good stuff happening too.
Just think about how delusional you have —
To be to start your own business, though, it's really, really hard.
Yeah, it's pretty psychotic. But so many people do it in this country because there's this idea that yes, these surveys talk about things getting worse, but you don't start a business if you don't think that it's going to work or that you're not somehow optimistic. I think that's...
All right, let's pivot. Let's pivot to the dark. It's enough positivity for one day, am I right?
So, Tim Ferriss wrote a post describing that his book sales are crashing. Now, Tim Ferriss is probably the modern-day king of the self-help, like the...
Wait, this is not dark. I think I'm going to go on record and say this is a good thing.
Yeah, no, I'm just saying like the... No, I totally agree. I'm just saying the transition to AI dumerism. I think this is a great thing. But he's all like the self-help hacker book, right? Like The 4-Hour Work Week, The 4-Hour Body, the four this, the that. He basically said that...
There's still stuff that he talked about in The 4-Hour Body that I do today still. Like there's some workout stuff in there that he laid out. It's like it's a really big book and most of it was useless to me, but there was some stuff that I still use to this day from his book, from that 4-Hour Body book.
