Squawk Pod: The Nasdaq’s AI IPOs, Tesla’s Q3, gloomy economic sentiment - 10/22/26 | Audio Only

Bring in show music, please.

Hi, I'm CNBC producer Katie Kramer. Today on Squawk Pod, enthusiasm, anxiety, our feelings about artificial intelligence may be two sides of the same coin.

Once AI decides they no longer need humans, there's going to be all these scary robots that you can't possibly either run from or be.

That is actually when I think we're going to have a true problem.

One CEO riding the high of AI expectations, Adena Friedman at the NASDAQ.

She's on the winning team of the IPO race so far.

Then investor Rebecca Patterson on buying in AI.

AI is too much of a good thing at the wrong time.

How she counsels smart savers who are a little lost closer to home.

People come to me, often people who are on your air, who are very successful but didn't grow up personal investing and they're embarrassed that they don't know more.

Plus, the president's approval rating on the economy hits an all-time low. Our Steve Leeman crunches the numbers.

I present a poll like this and the expressed objective of every campaign is to prove my poll wrong.

Just another day on Squawkbox.

If you're tap dancing in a minefield, it's just a matter of time.

But you don't want to tap dance too long.

It's Thursday, October 22nd. Squawk Pod begins right now.

Stand by, Joe. In three, two, one. His mic.

You're watching Squawkbox on CNBC live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. I'm Joe Kernan along with Andrew Ross Orin. Becky is off today. I think she'll be back tomorrow though.

And Tom, let's talk about Tesla right now because those shares they are lower this morning despite the better than expected third quarter results. The company cutting its annual capex forecast and posted a drop in automotive revenue, but Tesla reported surprise positive free cash flow in the quarter. Now, revenue in its services segment increased by a third. Here's CEO Elon Musk on the earnings call.

Unless we're stopped by governments, which is certainly a possibility, like if they're trying to protect a domestic industry, I think Tesla will end up doing a majority of all passenger miles on Earth in any country where it is allowed to operate freely.

Yeah.

And you can come back and look at this prediction, but I feel confident about this prediction. Addressing a possible Tesla SpaceX merger, Musk repeated an analogy as the head of both companies talking about a combination was like a tap dancing through a minefield. He said he'd pretty much covered all he could during the SpaceX call that took place the day before, which is what led to all the increased commotion. I mean, I think we all thought that the directionally this is where this would go. The question, of course, is these two special committees, are they talking to each other? Are they talking to themselves before they would talk to each other? What is the process with which all of that could potentially work? Meanwhile, Musk may push for a Tesla SpaceX merger in relatively short order. Bloomberg saying Musk is looking to get a deal done before President Trump is out of office and may try to announce something by the first half of next year. The article adds the timing will depend on when Tesla's board feels comfortable with the details of that merger. And that's a big part of how this trying to just understand the mechanics of how this could potentially play out.

Did we decide there was a premium in Tesla shares already?

So then invariably there's a premium in it already. And then the question is are you going to add another 20%?

Almost $500 in the last year. It's only $400 now. And we're looking it's less than that 367. So that's just that's a daily. Interestingly, there was a fascinating analyst on X yesterday which actually Elon replied to who walked through what he thought the benefits would be to the various shareholders and interestingly effectively thinks it's actually more beneficial for Tesla shareholders effectively to be part of SpaceX long-term than it is for SpaceX shareholders to want to buy Tesla. So, it's almost, you know, in terms of what you think a premium is needed unclear because sort of there's a short-term long-term play here and potentially being part of a SpaceX might actually be more valuable to a Tesla shareholder and that was actually something that Elon responded you know sort of interesting which when Elon sort of responds interesting it's sort of a way of highlighting that maybe I'm maybe I'm you know.

Maybe the more obvious thing to me is is you have to actually arrive at it in a different way. But I would, you know, you're talking about, you know, driving around here instead of driving around out in SP. I mean, it the future is much much bigger. And if there's going to be any premium to pay for Tesla, you'd have to think that somehow Tesla is benefiting SpaceX more than SpaceX benefiting. That's why I was thinking it could be a merger. I'd give I would as a Tesla shareholder take me. You just take it. You say, 'Take it. I'm I'm ready for it.'

Interestingly, the other piece of this though is if you really think about what the future of Tesla is, it's really two things. It's robo taxis. I mean, I think they've effectively said, not they're getting out of the car business, but that the that the future of the business is the robo taxi business, which is a much higher margin business. If they can just manufacture and run a service of robo taxis, that is a better business than selling cars to you and me.

Yeah. And then the second piece which maybe is as or more important is the Optimus robot which end of next year start deploying and if you need the Optimus robot and you need connectivity for all of these things then you'd like to be connect and you think that we're it's all going to be AI based you might as well be all together.

It's all playing out perfectly for the end of humanity. So, once AI decides they do no longer need humans, there's going to be all these scary robots that you can't possibly either run from or be.

That is actually when I think we're going to have a true problem.

I don't know. Did you see there was a Microsoft post last night that was pretty scary, a threat assessment about a Chinese China state actor using AI that I think sort of threw me for a little bit. Well, you know, you figure, you know, the AI on your phone or your laptop's not going to kill you, but if they're walking around and invincible, I'm seeing Arnold. That's I'm seeing Arnold. Check out this is you still the uh and tap dancing in a month. That's a bad analogy.

Well, because you can't say the right or wrong thing.

You ever not hit one? I mean, it sounds like you're going to be onelegged or or nothing pretty soon. If you're tap dancing in a minefield, there it's just a matter of time, isn't it?

That's why you don't want to tap dance too long. Maybe that's what I would say. That's what I would Yeah.

We've got exclusive results of the CNBC All-America Economic Survey, the midterm edition. Senior economics reporter Steve Leeman has the details for us this morning. Good morning.

Good morning, Andrew. The CNBC All-America economic survey finding the public nearly as gloomy on the economy as it was when the nation emerged from the pandemic and President Trump's economic approval rating hitting an all-time low. The poll of a thousand registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1% finding that 20% of the public say the economy is excellent or good. That's down from 27 in July. 80% say it's just fair or poor. That's up from 73%. And that's the highest it's been since the economy emerged from the pandemic. A big part of the change, growing economic pessimism among Republicans and independents. 35% of Republicans are pessimistic about the current economy and the outlook was 29 in July. 72% of independents. That's up from 67%. Democrats a little bit more optimistic maybe because of what they expect to be the elections. 87% of Democrats are saying the economy is fair and poor. The president's Trump President Trump's overall approval rating is stable though at a low level. Our numbers a little bit higher than others at 40% approval, 59% disapproval. Net approval has fallen to minus 19. It was minus8 one year ago. But there was a sharp downward move in the president's in views of president's handling of the economy. 34% approving, 65% disapproving. That's minus 31 net approval. A 9point drop in net approval from last quarter. The highest disapproval rating we've registered for any president going back to President Obama. Democrats look to benefit at least somewhat from the president from the president and the economy's low numbers. 45% say they prefer Republican control of Congress. 52% prefer Democratic control. That's a sevenpoint Dem lead up three points from July. Congressional preference in eight battleground states. Democrats plus four. In 2024 election, President Trump carried these states by plus 10 points. Dems have led in these issues, in those issues that matter the most to voters. 36% say corruption is the biggest issue. Democratic preference for Democratic control is plus four in that one. 34% say it's the cost of food and groceries. Dems have a 16-point lead on that. Protecting democracy. Dems have a seven-point lead. 23% say it's the price of gas and Dems have a 9-point lead on that. Republicans do better on immigration and border security where they have a 9-point lead and a 22-point lead, respectively. Now, while Democratic gains look likely, our Democratic pollster says this won't mean realignment as much as a reversion to the mean where several Democratic constituencies return to voting Democratic. Our Republican pollster notes that only so many seats are actually competitive and Republicans, even if they are down on the economy on the president, they're unlikely to cross the line and vote Democratic.

So assuming all of this is right, right?

We know what's going to happen. We know what's right.

Well, do you not know what's going to happen?

I would like to just put an asterisk next to it.

Have you seen the president's itinerary and schedule? He is out there.

They're pushing hard.

I mean, every day in another state, I don't know that it's being matched. There's 11 billion dollars being sent being spent. I think what people forget is I present a poll like this and the expressed objective of every campaign is to prove my poll wrong.

Right.

Right. So there's and there's two weeks to go. We've seen the president, you know, do a stretch run before. So that's possible. It's a turnout issue among other things. And we don't we it's very difficult to model the turnout. We were very good by the way in 2024. We had the 1% in the national poll. But issue is enthusiasm. We show that Democrats are more interested in this election by 10 points than Republicans and there are key constituencies that are more interested. Meanwhile, the president is out there trying to round up. He has his base and it has been stable. Our overall approval rating shows that he's got this 40%, others are down 33, 35, whatever. But this MAGA base of 28% is fairly stable. And now we have this new demographic, the democratic socialists, and that represents 22% of the public. There is a important split that's worth talking more about sometime between MAGA and non-MAGA Republicans.

And what's that? What's the decision?

They show lower approval rating, worse views on the economy. They're much more concerned about the vote Democratic.

That's the question. That's the question. Will they That's how I ended my piece there. Will they cross the line? Our Republican pollsters thinks not. And I don't know that our Democratic pollster disagrees with that.

Steve Leeman, thank you.

And Democrats have some pretty far-left perceptions of where that party is.

Hey, you want to know a good statue?

Yeah.

Take see DSA is the far left. Okay. I want to get my hand on camera.

Yeah.

Let's say MAGA is the far right.

Okay.

Yeah.

22 and 28 is what?

50%.

Right. half of the country if we accept that definition

Which then gets away from

is part of is part of the the extreme.

I don't equate MAGA with with that end of any political spectrum of of the DSA.

Okay.

That's your call. I'm just saying that's

And I'm also wondering whether

Oh, by the way, you can read all about this online cbc.com. Folks, with cell phones, I don't know how to do polls anymore.

We do cell phone polls. We

I don't think we're public. I don't think we're that's the that's what

We were 444.

But you know what? The special elections that we've had so far in previous years where you thought that the Democratic lead was overstated. They Democrats won everyone. That's what's worrisome to Republicans.

But we still know there's an underounting and underrepresentation of Republicans.

Okay, we got to run.

Cheese will be next. Coming up on SquawkPod, the NASDAQ's big win in the AI IPO race with CEO Adena Friedman. How artificial intelligence is changing the game for every sector's return on investment.

We'll be right back.

You're listening to Squawkpod from CNBC today with Joe Kernan and Andrew Ross Sorcin.

Up and Q.

The NASDAQ reporting better than expected third quarter earnings and revenue. Joining us right now in the chair is NASDAQ's chair and CEO Adena Freeman who is here. Good morning. Congratulations. We were just talking about should we read the headline?

It's the Yeah, the NASDAQ trouncer. The NASDAQ is trouncing and it's the this is the 10point, Andrew, I've learned.

I've got that.

So, this is the top top story. The NASDAQ is trouncing the NYSC. Trouncing. And you could there's other words you could use. And the competition for the biggest IPOs and anthropic now expected to bring the tech heavy exchange, another blockbuster listing. What?

How do you do it so well? How do you do it so well? day in and day out without it getting boring.