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Scott Galloway
Founder; Host of The Prof G Pod; Co-host of Pivot and Prof G Markets, Prof G Media

Raging Moderates

📅 Oct 23, 2026 UVA Center for Politics 98 MIN 347 VIEWS 150 SEGMENTS · 4 SPEAKERS
Join us at the Center for Politics for a conversation with Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov, hosts of Raging Moderates, alongside ...... delighted to welcome two prominent voices in American political and cultural commentary Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlo We' ...

What Scott Galloway said

Written from the verified transcript and checked against it. Every figure links to the moment it was said.

Scott Galloway predicted a Democratic wave in the upcoming midterms, describing the party as 'Hulu if Netflix went down' and citing early voting surges in Texas and Ohio as signs of anger at incumbents. He noted that people over 75 grew 34% wealthier since 2022, while those under 25 became 23% less wealthy, driving demand for change. Galloway cautioned against overreliance on prediction markets like Kalshi, suggesting they may miss to the upside. He argued that while Democrats have momentum, Republicans have 'the paperwork,' citing a 2.4 million increase in GOP registrations versus a 2.1 million drop for Democrats. He highlighted the extraordinary spending, including $850 million on the Texas Senate race, and predicted a record-low return on political investment. Galloway urged Democrats to pivot from 'indignance to ideas,' proposing progressive taxation, IRS restoration, and adult conversations about entitlements, while warning against impeachment as politically unwise.

Key takeaways

  1. Galloway predicts a Democratic wave, calling it a 'red riptide' fueled by anger at incumbents, not necessarily enthusiasm for Democrats.
  2. He says Republicans gained 2.4 million registrants while Democrats lost 2.1 million in the last four years, suggesting polls may be off.
  3. He forecasts the $850 million Texas Senate race will mark a record-low return on political spending, possibly diminishing money's influence.
  4. He argues Democrats must adopt a growth agenda within weeks of winning, including raising corporate taxes and restoring IRS funding, or risk losing voters.
  5. He calls Elon Musk a 'traitor to the West' and urges Democrats to impose a 60-90 day review hold on new tech products like AI.

Numbers and commitments

FigureWhat it refers toTypeAt
34% Wealth growth for people over 75 since 2022 metric 29:14
23% Wealth decline for people under 25 since 2022 metric 29:14
2.4 million Net increase in Republican voter registrations over four years metric 41:37
$11 billion Democratic midterm spending metric 42:15
$10 billion Republican midterm spending metric 42:15
$850 million Spending on Texas Senate race metric 42:59
$300 million Elon Musk's political spending this cycle metric 43:40
$750 billion Annual uncollected taxes metric 57:26
$400,000 US household national debt analogy other 1:17:26

Chapters

  1. 0:00Election predictions and early voting
  2. 29:14Wealth inequality across generations
  3. 30:49Prediction markets and momentum
  4. 42:15Republican money and spending dynamics
  5. 43:40Elon Musk and the role of billionaires
  6. 50:04Senate map and key races
  7. 54:12Democratic post-election strategy
  8. 1:02:13Leadership and impeachment considerations
  9. 1:09:22Young people, dating, and social media
  10. 1:24:42Tech regulation and national service

Questions asked in this interview

12
  1. 27:32Where do you think things are headed as we approach election day?
  2. 39:03I asked a good contact who usually doesn't lie to me in the Trump White House, what do you all have planned for an October surprise?
  3. 50:52... it wasn't a tiny margin, it was enough of a coattail to elect Rogers running against Slotkin, who did get elected — then how is he going to win in a Democratic year when there are too many issues even relating to Michigan, like the bridge?
  4. 53:06How can you only be ahead by three points if you're the sister of the senator who just died, and it's South Carolina, and they're heavily, heavily, heavily red and Republican?
  5. 1:04:34But the other thing is, and you're going to hate this, those of you who are Democrats, would you please resist the impulse to launch into impeachment?
  6. 1:05:45But do you feel like this is going to be a permanent political volleyball type of group, or that there's a real coming home sensibility about it?
  7. 1:08:36So Scott, Jessica, can you stand up and introduce yourself?
  8. 1:08:40How do you think we get away from that?
  9. 1:15:31Is this going to be about sex again, though?
  10. 1:19:04Do we still treat Trumpers the way Michelle Obama said, 'When they go low, you go high,' or are we changing our strategy on that?
  11. 1:20:00How do you bring standards back up to the level where you could do what Michelle Obama said and not lose?
  12. 1:21:08I don't know how many Democrats would, you know, tell their wives, partners, whoever, you know, like, 'Oh, honey, you know what we can do today?
Larry Sabato 13:30 ↗
Hey, hey, hey.
Hey, hey, hey.
Hello. Hello.
Now down. Down. Down.
We have a game here today, and that's the traffic is... No, I'm sorry. You are the reason the traffic is... but and the athletic department is very unhappy that we scheduled this big event to conflict with the football.
Scott Galloway 24:05 ↗
Yeah, it's a joke. You're right. But nonetheless, they're playing Duke.
Larry Sabato 24:13 ↗
Oh, yeah, of course. Okay. Um, Scott, I hope eventually, Jessica, but Scott has a son here. First year. Is he here?
Scott Galloway 24:26 ↗
Yeah, he's right there. I wouldn't be a dad if I didn't embarrass him. Stand up.
Jessica Tarlov 24:30 ↗
No.
Scott Galloway 24:31 ↗
Stand up.
Jessica Tarlov 24:32 ↗
Oh, there you are.
Larry Sabato 24:39 ↗
Well, you're very lucky. I didn't say why. I just said, you know, you're very lucky. But you're in biology.
Scott Galloway 24:47 ↗
Yeah. Big mistake.
Larry Sabato 24:48 ↗
You need... there's only one field that matters, and that's politics. And I think you know that. I mean, would you think biology would have something like this? Not a chance. And their producer is the wife of the architect who's also a UVA graduate, Jeff Murphy, who... give him a round of... He's not here, but he was the roommate of a student of mine from I think the 70s or 80s, I can't remember. The decades all blend together at this point, but was an excellent student. I don't know about Jeff, but she'll have to speak for her husband, but Andy Kingston, the roommate, was very good. Gave us a great deal on the building. I asked that it not deteriorate visibly until I was dead, and he promised me that that would happen. Won't be long, so that's not a problem. Anyway, somebody give me the signal that we're ready to start.
Okay. Well, we're really thrilled to be asked to be your moderator, to host the great podcast that everybody listens to, and a lot of my students listen to. They listen a lot more to you than they do to me. In fact, some of them are listening to your podcast while they're in my class. I just want you to know they're not taking any notes, and that's why they never laugh at my jokes. See, it all fits. Everything connects together. Look, welcome to the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
Okay, you did a pretty good job. We're delighted to welcome two prominent voices in American political and cultural commentary, Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov. We're here for a special taping of their podcast, Raging Moderates. They told me I could not read their long bio because you already know who they are, and that's absolutely true. Raging Moderates is known for its spirited, candid, and often entertaining — I think always entertaining — discussions of politics and the issues shaping our country. And with the national election just days away, thank God, may it be over soon, we have plenty to discuss. So, join me in welcoming Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov.
This makes sure everyone's awake. It's fantastic. All right. Now, let me start by asking you, Scott... I don't know what... Jessica, I'm sorry. That's what's in this.
Jessica Tarlov 27:31 ↗
I'll get in. Don't worry.
Larry Sabato 27:32 ↗
Okay, good. We're proud of that. Where do you think things are headed as we approach election day? And the students here want to know who's going to win so they know where to put their money on Kalshi.
Scott Galloway 27:50 ↗
So just for the purposes of production here, we're going to start with the usual. So, welcome to Raging Moderates. I'm Scott Galloway.
Jessica Tarlov 27:57 ↗
And I'm Jessica Tarlov.
Scott Galloway 27:59 ↗
And we are at the UVA Center for Politics here with Larry. So we're very happy to be here. So, what do I see happening? And then I'll pivot back to the expert and the other expert. So the way I would describe it right now is the Democratic Party is Hulu if Netflix went down. And that is, I don't think quite frankly anyone's running to the Democratic Party. The way I describe my life when people say how are you, I say I hate my life less and less every day. I think basically the electorate has decided they hate the Democrats less right now. And the way I would describe it, the data I've seen is that in some of the early voting, the turnout in Texas and I believe in early voting in Ohio is running to 100% higher at this point in previous midterms in terms of early voting. That means someone's angry, and it logically means that likely people are angry at the incumbents. And it's not... you have a football game tonight. It's not that. And I primarily focus on young men, and what you see with young men in this election is that they're not switching teams. They're just leaving the stadium.
And if you look at what's happened, the stat that really just sort of blew me away is that since 2022, people over the age of 75 — this is just in the last four years — people over the age of 75 are 34% wealthier. They have grown their wealth by 34% in four years. People under the age of 25 are 23% less wealthy. So when you see what feels like people just, you know, champagne and cocaine up here and they can't pay their rent, they don't want Democrat or Republican. They just want different. They just want change.
And also there's a bit of a... and again I'm talking more about young men. There's a bit of a fallacy that young men are these Neanderthals that follow Andrew Tate and always vote red. If you were to match up two groups that vote similarly, it's young men and white women over the age of 55. And actually the polling right now shows that young men are breaking somewhere around 61 to 31 Democrat to Republican if they vote. That's amongst likely voters. And what you see is that actually young men have remained fairly consistent in terms of their political values. Young women have broken much more progressive for a lot of reasons. So what I think we're seeing is not a blue wave. I would call it a red riptide, and that is people are just so upset with what is going on right now that they're angry and they're going to turn out for blue.
I personally think — you mentioned Kalshi, and then I'll flip it back to you, and I'm very open to learning here. The two of you are going to forget more about this than I'm ever going to know. But as it relates to the prediction markets, I feel like the prediction markets... I just feel like Susan Collins always does better than we're hoping, and that the prediction markets themselves have a bit of their own momentum. And while I do think there's going to be a wave, I don't know right now if it's going to be the tsunami we're all expecting, is the way I would put it. But then again, momentum creates momentum. I wouldn't be surprised. And I'm hoping I'm too close to it because I have personal views about this, but typically what I see on Kalshi is when the momentum takes it somewhere, oftentimes it misses to the upside a little bit. That would be what I'd call my cautious optimism about the tsunami that we're all hoping for and expecting. Jess, and then Larry's thoughts.
Jessica Tarlov 31:50 ↗
Yeah, I would take your cautious optimism, and for me it's nauseous optimism. So I guess that's just the feminine version of this.
I have not seen — and I've looked for it because my algorithm is both blue-pilled and red-pilled, so I'm ready for work because I want to know what my colleagues at Fox are going to say as well. And I have yet to come across a good piece of news for the Republicans that would be meaningful in the midterms. I mean, you have the typical boosters that are making up stories about what they heard at the coffee shop, and the whole line is like wild for John Husted in Ohio or something like that. But I haven't seen anything that's like a brass-tacks indicator that it's going to go well for them. And if you follow the money, if you look where they're holding these big rallies, they are not on the offensive, they are on the defensive, and they're pulling money, especially out of races that three months ago you would have thought they really could have won, frankly. And all of that indicates to me that it should be a very good night.
I'm curious what Larry thinks about, you know, 2018 midterms versus 2006, because that's really what's hanging over people's heads. Is this going to be definitely a good night where there's control of gavels coming to Democrats and maybe an unexpected pickup in the Senate, you know, beyond North Carolina, which I think at this point we assume is going to work out for Roy Cooper. But are we going to be surprised by something like Senator James Talarico in Texas? What is going on in Kansas? I mean, that feels like one of the most wild races to me. I think Reverend Hamilton is a really special candidate. I think Roger Marshall is a lot worse than any of us expected. Granted, I haven't paid much attention to Roger Marshall before, but now that I look, he's not great. And I understand why people are, you know, eyes darting in other directions.
So the one thing that I think could change — or I guess I should say two — they have a lot of money, and it's actually infinite money. It's on a daily basis another headline: Elon Musk is pumping 50 million in here, 50 million in here, you know, single-handedly bankrolling Ken Paxton in Texas. So what impact does the money have? Because right now, it's really interesting, especially in Texas. So they're spending more by enormous multiples, but their ads aren't resonating with people. So they're doing these focus groups where they show them the ads, and people are only remembering the Democratic ads. And I think it's because those ads make them feel something. That James Talarico is talking about what it means to be a Texan, and he's talking about values instead of politics. And I love Scott and I have had the pleasure of interviewing him a couple times, and he has this great line about the fact that he's not trying to turn Texas blue, he's trying to turn it purple, which feels like it should be the national party platform, frankly, that this is actually how the country was designed. I mean, we're sitting here, you know, in a very important inst... What did you tell me to say?
Larry Sabato 35:09 ↗
The best policy, the most important political institution in the world.
Jessica Tarlov 35:12 ↗
In the world. It's not just America. It was America out there. It is the world now that we're sitting here.
But we're supposed to work together. That's how this country was designed. I'm nauseously optimistic about that happening again one day. But I want to know, and maybe Larry, you can start with this, you know, what impact the money is going to have, and then also their efforts to activate people that are staying home, because Democrats' best hope is that a lot of these disenchanted Republicans actually stay home, because if they show up, it might just be too hard for them actually to check the box for the Democrat. And I should note for the independent, because a lot of these races have really interesting independents in them, like Dan Osborn in Nebraska, for instance. So what say you?
Larry Sabato 36:04 ↗
I'm going to answer those questions now, assuming I can remember them. You know, sorry, it was a lot.
Jessica Tarlov 36:09 ↗
No, no, I'm just... it wasn't that you went on so long, it's just...
Larry Sabato 36:11 ↗
I was at a speech in DC yesterday. A lovely lady from Columbia University asked me a question, and it went on rather long. And at the end of it, I guess I'd been daydreaming, and I said, you know, that's a tough question. I need to think about that for a while. I never did get back to it because I couldn't remember what it was. So if I forget your questions, point it out.
Jessica Tarlov 36:32 ↗
Money and turnout for Republicans.
Larry Sabato 36:34 ↗
Well, I got to say first, we're thrilled to have you all, and we want you to come back frequently. I mean, this is a much nicer setting, I've been told, than you have regularly. And one of you has a son here, Alec, and he frequently needs his clothes washed and dried. So any... That's true, isn't it? You know, it's true. I know what happens at parents' weekend. So this is parents' weekend here. So you come down anytime you want.
Look, the first thing, you're absolutely right. There are all kinds of reasons why things might not turn out the way the polls suggest. Although as inaccurate as polling has been in 2016 and 2020 and 2024 — those are presidential races — the polling has been pretty accurate in 2018 and in 2022, the last two midterm elections. Gee, I wonder what could it be that was on the ballot in those three presidential races that was absent in 2018 and 2022. I don't know. That's what you're here for, to tell us the truth. But I think we can all guess that a certain president was not on the ballot, or a former president, or a president to be was not on the ballot at the time. So it's possible. I don't think the polling is that off. It may be off in some places. You mentioned Maine, and that is one place where I pay no attention whatsoever to the polls. She was behind by a total... it was between eight and nine percent in the polling average right before the 2020 election. She won by nine percent. Now, how can you be that far off? And we're talking about, you know, 20 polls, most of them not gold standard, but they were decent polls. And so it kind of tells me she deserves the benefit of the doubt until she either wins or loses. I don't know what's going to happen there.
So it might be that way. But my personal feeling is, and we're down to three: a blue ripple, that ain't it. A blue wave, 50/50. A blue tsunami, 50/50. Those are the two choices right now. You would be surprised, I honestly think — and we do this all day long. Fortunately, you all have much more productive, better lives, but we sit here going through hidden polls, public polls, polls that we are slipped by people we trust, and that kind of thing. And I'm just stunned by the... if they're at all accurate, I am stunned at the degree to which Republicans are in trouble.
Now, that can change. You saw what happened today in Alaska. They have a series of... I asked a good contact who usually doesn't lie to me in the Trump White House, what do you all have planned for an October surprise? He said, 'First of all, I can tell you don't know what you're talking about, which I've always told you.' And I said, 'Yeah, you have told me that consistently over 20, 30 years.' He says, 'Because the correct word is October surprises.' He said, 'We've got at least one for every close race, plus some national October surprises.' Today's was Alaska's, of course, as many of you have already.
Scott Galloway 39:39 ↗
So he told you essentially we're going to mess with the elections in every close race?
Larry Sabato 39:45 ↗
Well, no, he didn't put... In fact, I specifically... No, I know he wouldn't say that. He wouldn't say that line. I also asked about what's coming. You know, are they planning things on election day and post-election day? By the way, just so you know, nothing. They're planning nothing. It's going to be the most innocent election there's ever been. You know, you believe that one? You know, and I told him the same thing, and he laughed. He knows I don't believe that. He knows it's not true. They are planning various things. I wish I knew all the specifics. I have some idea what they're doing. But for the individual close races, they do have a surprise or surprises individually for them as well as nationally.
And the Alaska one today, in which they're now suing, they filed suit about the shocking revelation that there are two Dan Sullivans on the ballot. See, I, you know, I dreamed this months ago. I remember, and somehow it became true, and I've since learned it was in the newspapers. It actually happened several months ago. But they've saved this for the end. It's an unfair election. It questions the integrity. And this second Dan Sullivan was put up by the Democrats, which no one knows. It sounds to me like he's a little unusual, and that has a lot to do.
Jessica Tarlov 40:57 ↗
He's a funny one.
Larry Sabato 40:58 ↗
Yeah, he's a funny one. So I think we're going to... You have to be careful. We're still... we're not two weeks, but we're... what is today? Friday. So we're a week and a few days ahead of the election. They can fit a lot in. This is Trump time. This is not the time we've all known throughout our lives. How much happens in a day with Trump as president? Give him credit for that. He has incredible energy. I'd like some of what he's taken.
Scott Galloway 41:23 ↗
Yeah. There's... I'm serious.
There's no doubt about it. I mean, so first off, we call ourselves Raging Moderates, but the reality is we're progressives, right? We're more... We're just not...
Jessica Tarlov 41:33 ↗
But we're raging.
Scott Galloway 41:34 ↗
Well, okay.
The most accurate description of our podcast would be progressives who aren't batshit crazy. But the Democrats have the pulse right now. There's just no getting around it. But as someone who always sees the glass half empty, and I'm looking for reasons why things might not break our way as hard as we think they are, we have the pulse, but Republicans have the paperwork. I looked at some data on registrations, and I think in the last four years, if I read the data correctly, Republicans have gained 2.4 million registrants and Democrats have lost 2.1 over the last four years. So the polls may be polling a different numerator, or what the term is.
I think the most significant thing that's going to come out of this election, because we're talking about money, other than who wins or who doesn't win, control of the Senate seems to be the fulcrum here. We're going to get control of the House. It's a question whether we get control of the Senate. Now is money. And that is, if you look at what's happening in Texas, first off, we're spending more money. We're spending, I think, 11 billion versus 10 billion in this midterm. This is a midterm after a presidential election, and spending has gone up. This is the full local television station employment act, the amount of money that's being poured into this election. And I think this is going to have... I think this is going to be the biggest knock-on effect coming out of this election. And what do I mean by that?
They're going to spend $850 million on a Texas Senate race. I believe they're spending almost a billion dollars to tell people in Waco what they already know. I think this is going to be the election where the ROI on money drops off the face of a cliff, where you just, for the first time — and we all talk about, and I agree, Citizens United is terrible, we need to do away with it — but if you can't buy a senator in deep red Texas for $850 million, I think, and I think this is a wonderful thing, I think the ROI on money is about to hit an absolute record low in this race.
And the broader picture is, I think we've spent the last 40 years trying to determine, talking a lot about how to build wealth. I think we're going to spend the next 10 years or the next few election cycles talking about what are the responsibilities of wealth. And when you have one person — I think it's, he said, 300 million so far at the midterms. These numbers are hard to wrap your head around. So let me help wrap our heads around that. Say you're worth a million dollars and you're worried about potentially having your business go away, getting hauled in front of Congress. I mean, you have a real vested interest in keeping one party in power. If you had a million dollars, what would you think of putting... and you had a real interest in getting Republicans elected, would you put $300 into a campaign? That is the equivalent of what it means for Elon Musk to put $300 million into politics when he's worth a trillion dollars.
And whereas before I've... why I've become much more progressive on tax structure. I generally think the biggest threat — we talk about Citizens United — the biggest threat to democracy is that power corrupts, and absolute power absolutely corrupts. And in a capitalist society with no campaign spending limits, a trillionaire can basically decide, I'm going to spend $300 to swing an election. And that we need progressive tax rates to, quite frankly, protect us from the tyranny of power, because when someone can take a small amount of money and pour hundreds of millions of dollars into an electorate, an election, and you realize just how this means nothing to him — it literally means nothing to him. That's a millionaire going out for a nice dinner is what $300 million from Elon Musk spends.
So one, I think the biggest outcome or the most navel-gazing as a society we're going to do is, one, the election experts are going to go, 'Wow, the ROI on money has just fallen off a cliff here,' which I think is a wonderful thing. But also, what does it mean when you have individuals who, for the price of a nice dinner of a millionaire, can pour a quarter or a half a billion dollars into a campaign?
Jessica Tarlov 46:00 ↗
I would. So what you're talking about relates to, on some of the surveys, some of the big polls like the latest Fox News poll, the number one issue in this election, which is corruption.
And I was surprised to see that pop ahead of the economy. And I realized that they're intertwined, right? Because it's the idea that the little guy can't get ahead. Even the middle-class guy can't get ahead. This is a country now only for the wealthy and the mega-wealthy. And I've noticed my colleagues at Fox have started talking about what's going to happen once Democrats win more than they were before, and they're fear-mongering — maybe that's not even fair because some of this is going to happen — but about all of the hearings that are going to happen once Garcia has the oversight gavel. They're going to be hauling in not Donald Trump, but everyone around him, and his kids are going to come in, and they're going to be looking into those government contracts and whatever.
I don't know if you guys saw this yesterday, the Vanity Fair piece that the GRU hacked Jared Kushner's phone, and he's made another $700 million off of bank accounts that he had in the Middle East, which, I mean, he had a $2 billion Saudi deal, so it's not particularly surprising, but all of these things will be coming up. And Elon Musk, who used DOGE to personally get rid of folks that were looking into his businesses. When people say what's the lesson of DOGE, I say Elon Musk fired all the inspectors general that were looking into his companies and his dirty contracts. That's what it was. He got to take a sledgehammer to that. And now once Democrats have the gavel, they're going to be looking into him slowing down Starlink or Starshield — Starlink powers Starshield anyway — and the fact that there are Ukrainian civilians that are no longer here because they didn't have their protection system.
And I don't know if that is something that actually motivates Republicans to come out. But I do think it is an interesting answer to the problem that you're talking about, Scott. If you can't actually fix campaign finance, you find a way to hold leaders accountable so that, yes, the ROI on this is dropping, but that they can't live with impunity anymore, and they can't go around, frankly, messing with us to this level.
Larry Sabato 48:27 ↗
Just to throw in something in historical perspective, this is by leaps and bounds the most corrupt administration in American history. There's nothing like it. People keep saying, 'Oh, Nixon.' Nixon was about power. That's what he wanted more of. And some of you, a few of you are old enough to remember, it was all about power and retribution that he has in common with Trump. But the money, just... there's never been anything like it to have a president enrich himself by three billion dollars in a year and a half. And the kids over time are doing even better than the son-in-law. And it's just shocking, and people shrug.
Now maybe it's connecting in the way you're suggesting here, because we have a bad economic situation, people are having a hard time making ends meet, and that also connects to the extremely unpopular war in Iran because of the increased diesel and gasoline prices. So it's all fitting together in one package, which is why I think it's going to be a wave. There are just too many things that are turning against what potentially could have been a Republican tide. And there's no way for them to recover. There's not enough time for them to recover, no matter how many tricks come out of the bag, including vote fraud and all the rest of it, which doesn't... I hope nobody here believes that that really exists. Please, come on. Not more than a tiny, tiny number of votes. What unbelievable stupidity that people have seized on that and believe it.
Scott Galloway 50:04 ↗
I'm curious, you just said blue wave, and so I know that's your baseline. It's blue wave or blue tsunami. Of the kind of the big races that everybody has their attention focused on, Senate-wise at least, you know, Ohio, Iowa, Texas, North Carolina. I mean, Georgia's, you know, John Ossoff is doing fine, but I'd be curious to hear what you think about Keisha Lance Bottoms and how she does there. How do you think that the Senate map plays out besides that? Susan Collins obviously is someone that surprises us and...
Jessica Tarlov 50:39 ↗
Yes, that's a category.
Scott Galloway 50:41 ↗
I'll hold that. Yeah.
Jessica Tarlov 50:42 ↗
We're going to keep that one a separate category. But I went up to Michigan because that one does interest me in lots of ways.
Scott Galloway 50:50 ↗
I should have put that in the... Yeah, that's...
Larry Sabato 50:52 ↗
And there I think it's Elissa Slotkin, believe it or not, is leading. Now, if he had been Rogers' opponent two years ago, Senator Rogers would be, you know, commenting on another race entirely right now. He would have defeated Elissa. But if Rogers couldn't win with Trump winning Michigan — it was close, but it wasn't a tiny margin, it was enough of a coattail to elect Rogers running against Slotkin, who did get elected — then how is he going to win in a Democratic year when there are too many issues even relating to Michigan, like the bridge? Don't go up there and ask about the bridge because that will be the end of your evening.
And I'm not even getting into it. But the tariffs, you know, the Canadian issue, because they're good friends with Canadians, and now they're hurting because Canadians have cut back. So I would say that's leaning Democratic. If we're surprised on one, that will be the one. But right now we have a slight bet on Elissa. Kansas, that's a... we'll do that on election eve. I mean, it is a toss-up totally, and so is Iowa. Those two are just complete total toss-ups, and the private info we're getting is also very contradictory. Texas, it's just that I still have terrors, night terrors. All the previous races that my colleagues have gotten wrong, I just never participated. But there were some shocking mistakes by prior Crystal Ball groups, you know, betting on...
Scott Galloway 52:27 ↗
That didn't have your name attached to it at all.
Larry Sabato 52:29 ↗
Do it. I was on vacation. I was out sick. I've come up with them all.
But we've had too many goofs. And so he ought to win. That is, Ted Cruz ought to win. And I need to be careful because our UVA law graduate, the Republican nominee... Yeah, they've admitted some interesting people. RFK Jr. and the Republican nominee, I'm forgetting his name in Texas. Oh, that's right, Paxton. And there are a bunch of them. There are a bunch of them. I wonder how they explain that. I've never talked to them about that. They need a time tunnel to the future. They need to kind of look back and see what these people will end up doing.
Anyway, Alaska, I incredibly... I do think that Mary Peltola will win. That was one of the first ones that we felt was leaning Democratic, including the election method. That has a lot to do with the fact that I think she might well win. Nebraska, you're right to mention it. I'll be shocked if it happens, but it's possible. Mississippi and South Carolina, the only shock there is that they're even vaguely close. And that tells you what's happening with the sea. You know, it's roaring and it's building waves. And you know, I don't think they're going to win. But Lindsey Graham, in a very good survey that we've seen recently, she was only ahead by three points. How can you only be ahead by three points if you're the sister of the senator who just died, and it's South Carolina, and they're heavily, heavily, heavily red and Republican? I mean, I believe it. I don't think they were phony numbers, but something's going on out there. We always say that at the end: something's going on out there. It's a great thing to quote after you're wrong.
Scott Galloway 54:12 ↗
So the other thing I think Democrats are going to have to contend with the day on November the 4th is, okay, it's one thing to be, you know, hated less, right? The question is on November the 4th, we're then 23 months and three weeks away from the big one, right? And it strikes me that right now Republicans or Democrats haven't really put forward a plan other than we're not Trump. And this is really awful. Trust us, we'll be different. But I think the challenge... I'm finally letting myself say it looks like we're going to do really well. And I'm going to do a lot of name-dropping because I'm desperate for affirmation.
I counsel a lot of potential hopefuls for the Democratic nomination for president. There's about 60 of them right now, and they'll text me and ask me for my advice, which is their way of sending me money. And my advice is like, okay, we've got to move from the party of indignance to ideas. Like literally within a couple weeks of winning the election, we've got to say, all right, are we going to have a more progressive tax rate? Are we going to take the cap off Social Security tax such that we can make sure that it's secure? Are we going to, you know, figure out a single-payer option? Like, what are your big bold ideas?
Because right now the far left of the party has all the energy, because for God's sakes, at least they're coming out of the closet and saying stuff and saying, 'Let's have X, Y, and Z.' Where the centrists are the kind of core of the Democratic establishment right now, their basic value proposition is we're not them. So there has to be more kind of... I think right away, crisply, the Democrats, if they in fact take all of Congress, we're going to have an impeachment reminiscent tour. No doubt about it. People, if I think if the Senate goes 52-53, the Democrats will start getting excited about a potential impeachment. I think that's a bad idea. I think immediately they need to put forward a growth agenda.
This is how we're going to take corporate taxes up. This is how we're going to take people over alternative minimum tax for corporations, for people over a million dollars. Everyone else, taxes are staying the same. And I do think it's time for Democrats, similar to the Clinton-Gore administration, to position themselves. And I think America is finally ready for an adult conversation around, okay, do we need to raise taxes or cut spending? The answer is yes. And I think the Democratic caucus would be well served to come out and start touching third rails and say, 'Folks, we've got to be the adult in the room here. Your interest rates, your mortgage, your credit cards, your auto loan are all skyrocketing because we are no longer seen as the adult in the room, specifically the US bond market. And we are going to have to make some hard choices. And we are the adults. We're not going to promise you $5,000 if you vote for us. We're going to promise you an adult conversation, and everyone's going to have to take their medicine.'
And we are going to go after the $750 million tax cut. We're going to restore funding to the IRS. The biggest tax cut in history that no one talks about was the neutering of the IRS. All of the incentives for wealthy people and corporations now is just to say you owe no taxes and say bring it, and there's no one to show up and audit you. Supposedly, there's $750 billion a year in uncollected taxes right now. I'm not talking about new taxes. I'm talking about taxes that are owed. But I would like to think that within, call it 30 days, leader Jeff, you know, the new Speaker of the House, Speaker Jeff, and I guess it'll be leader Schumer, hopefully, or...
Jessica Tarlov 58:08 ↗
Or I...
Larry Sabato 58:10 ↗
Who knows what I mean.
Jessica Tarlov 58:11 ↗
Who knows?
Scott Galloway 58:12 ↗
That's no. Okay.
Jessica Tarlov 58:14 ↗
Larry said it for us.
Scott Galloway 58:16 ↗
That's actually... I'll put that to you, Larry, about what you think might happen post among Democratic leadership. But I'm already to the point of, okay, just because voters hook up with us in the midterms doesn't mean they want to marry us. And we are going to have to, sooner rather than later, be more than not Trump. And I have trouble right now really articulating what the Democratic platform is other than getting very angry about social issues that quite frankly moderates don't give a shit about.
Back to you, Larry.
Jessica Tarlov 58:53 ↗
Can I... I want to talk about Larry's either weekend with Chuck Schumer or his long-term life with Chuck Schumer. But I want to say something about your point about the energy. And I think you're right. I watch the rallies, and any rally with AOC is a better rally, and that's, you know, she's magic that way. And even Bernie Sanders, 84, 84, 85 now, you know, he has more energy than Donald Trump does in his rallies. The people are also alert around him as well.
But I think that we are missing — and I don't want to be too mushy moderate about it or so in love with these characters — but there is a different kind of excitement going on on the ground, like in North Carolina for Roy Cooper, that doesn't manifest in your algorithm the same way. It doesn't show up in your screen in the same way. But you look at the turnout numbers there, which are wild, enormous. You look at...
What's going on in Georgia, and Jon Ossoff, I think, is the blend, right? Because he's made for TV or movie. I mean, he was a documentarian, but he has moderate bona fides with progressive juice, right? Which feels like that's why this should be the candidate. But people on the ground are going wild in their own way for these moderates. And what I would love to happen, and if you guys listen to Raging Moderates, then I will be boring you with this. But, you know, go talk to these candidates. You get their top three policies. Like, I was just watching Roy Cooper's closing ad talking about affordable housing and cutting taxes and making sure you all have health care. That's literally all anyone cares about, right? In Texas, they're sending that weird trans mailer around that actually originated in Wyoming, and regular people are saying, 'I'd like health insurance.' Right? So, just spend a couple days on the ground with these people, like Rob Sand in Iowa, who's exciting people because he's talking about what it means to be an auditor, like the world's most boring job, right? But what it does is it holds people accountable, and that's what people are hunting. So, you take their ideas and then you make them into three or four bumper sticker policies that Democrats can put. If you still have your Tesla and you haven't gotten that mad at Elon Musk, whatever, you put on the back of your Tesla or your Subaru or whatever the stereotypical car is, and you can ride around saying, 'We're the party of building 10 million affordable housing units,' or 'We're the party of universal health care.' And people will feel so much much better about you. Just like talk to the more boring people about how they're pulling this off, because folks are excited by someone that has proven they can deliver and shows you that they've listened to what you want to happen and that they're going to fight for you.
Scott Galloway 1:01:54 ↗
I was enjoying listening to you, but half of my brain was thinking, 'So, I'm not getting that five grand.' That's...
Jessica Tarlov 1:02:00 ↗
You're in the 13% that thought you were going to get it.
Scott Galloway 1:02:03 ↗
I thought I was going to get it. I not only did I think I was going to get it, I already spent it. [laughter] Because when you get older, you don't want to take a chance, you know, get rid of it fast.
Larry Sabato 1:02:13 ↗
Look, well, I'll just comment on two things that you all have brought up, and I'm glad that you mentioned both. First, let's get rid of the leadership question. Now, Hakeem Jeffries, fine. Get used to saying Speaker Jeffries. That's way over. Believe me, it's way over. Not just his getting the speakership, but the House of Representatives.
Jessica Tarlov 1:02:31 ↗
So, the progressives won't give him trouble?
Larry Sabato 1:02:33 ↗
Or there'll just be too many. This is why conservatives actually should be rooting for Democrats to get 230, 235 seats in the House at least, because that will guarantee that the Democratic Socialists will not be the tail that wags the dog, as we all remember from Germany and other situations around the world. You don't want the tail wagging the dog. So, he's in, and he's new, you know, he's not the most exciting speaker, but his son is here, Scott. Probably your friends already. I think he's second or third year. He's in the commerce school. He's well on his way to becoming a multi... You might want to get to know him. But his son is here. But Schumer, now look, I have nothing against him personally. And so we got 50 states plus the District of Columbia and some territories. And you're going to tell me that both the Democratic leaders should be New Yorkers with a New Yorker accent and New Yorker perspectives and the New Yorker culture, which is wonderful. I love you. All of you New Yorkers, I love you.

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Galloway, S. (2026, October 23). Raging Moderates [Interview transcript]. UVA Center for Politics. CEOInterviews.AI. https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3125176/

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Scott Galloway. "Raging Moderates." UVA Center for Politics, 23 Oct. 2026. Transcript, CEOInterviews.AI, https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3125176/.

BibTeX
@misc{galloway2026_3125176,
  author       = {Scott Galloway},
  title        = {Raging Moderates},
  howpublished = {Interview transcript, UVA Center for Politics. CEOInterviews.AI},
  year         = {2026},
  month        = {oct},
  url          = {https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3125176/},
  note         = {Speaker-attributed transcript with timestamps}
}