With the midterms just 21 days away, the president is campaigning in Alaska as critical debates are underway in key battleground states tonight. I'm Kaitlan Collins and this is a special edition of The Source: Countdown to the Midterms.
And as we come on the air tonight, you're hearing that music because the midterm elections are just three weeks away. And the president is spending his evening in Wasilla, Alaska — yes, the city which once had Sarah Palin as its mayor and also where she launched her political career.
Now, the president hasn't been in Alaska since his summit that he held with the Russian president Vladimir Putin. But tonight he's in the state for a very different reason, as he's attempting to rescue Republicans in red states yet at risk of losing their seats in three weeks.
And nobody's done more for Alaska than Donald J. Trump, that I can tell you. But we don't have to be in certain places. Here I have to be because we have to make sure that Dan gets in. We have to make sure that Nick Begich gets in.
By taking a look at the president's travel schedule just this week, you can see that he and his team are focused almost entirely on states that he won two years ago. The Vice President, J.D. Vance, is also in what has traditionally been Trump country, and now has a Senate race in Texas that has drawn an eye-popping $500 million in ad spending.
As a closing message to voters there in Texas, the vice president implied that the Democrat in that race is... I'll just let you listen for yourself to what he said.
Well, he's just a guy who shows a weird focus on transgender kids and drag queens, and you know, I think he said something to the effect of an 11-year-old in drag was a great sight or a very beautiful thing. It just — he says a lot of weird stuff, and I think typically people who say stuff like that tend to have some pretty unusual search histories. Maybe he doesn't. Disgusting, but I wouldn't want to see it. I love you, too, sir.
In a totally platonic way. To be clear. I'm the vice president, not James Talarico. He was asked what he loves in life besides his own family and friends, and he responded without skipping a beat, and I quote: trans children.
Now, you got to wonder what the internet search history of a man like that looks like. Ladies and gentlemen, you don't want to find out. Neither do I.
So, he repeated that comment twice. Whatever the comment and whatever the insinuation that the vice president was trying to make there, he did not offer any evidence beyond speculating about James Talarico's search history.
And this comes tonight as we're not just only watching a critical race that's playing out in Texas. Senate candidates in the battlegrounds of Maine and Georgia are also debating this evening. In Maine, it was the third time this week that Republican Senator Susan Collins and the Democrat in that race, Troy Jackson, have debated, and it turned almost immediately to the Iran war before things got personal.
Because Donald Trump wanted to play war games, and when Susan Collins had the chance to stop him because she's chair of appropriations, she would not do that.
I agree that the president did not have a good plan. He should have anticipated the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which part of the world's oil travels. And I don't feel that that was well anticipated, although it should have been. Troy has repeatedly insulted my integrity all evening long. He claims that I do what the so-called billionaires want to do. He lied when he said that I was under investigation and found to have committed fraud by the FBI. And I just cannot continue to ignore these attacks on my integrity.
Senator Collins says she's offended, but I think the people of Maine ought to be offended.
In Georgia, voters were lined up outside of polling sites today as early voting started in that state. And it's also tonight where Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff, who is running against Republican Congressman Mike Collins, debated him.
You know, when I was in your office, I asked you to help our shared constituent, Laken Riley, to get justice. And you just stared at me. We could have passed her bill under President Biden, but you wouldn't lift a finger.
I mean, were you too cowardly to stand up for what's right? Or was it just politically convenient to wait until it was going to pass anyway?
Mike, you know I voted for the bill. You're not just lying about my record. You're lying about a young woman's death because your campaign is in collapse. And your campaign is in collapse because the whole state knows that you're currently under federal investigation for the illegal misuse of tax dollars.
And on that note, my sources tonight are CNN Chief Data Analyst Harry Enten, the former mayor of New Orleans, Democrat Mitch Landrieu, and CNN political commentator and Republican strategist Shermichael Singleton. And it's great to have all of you here tonight, because we're watching all of these remarkable moments that are taking place from Alaska to Texas to Georgia even. And Harry, when you look at where the president is tonight, what do you make of where he is making that campaign stop?
You can see Russia from Wasilla, Alaska. Look, the bottom line is this.
Shermichael, don't laugh at that joke.
Yeah, that actually wasn't me this time. That was the mayor.
Mayor, don't give Harry any credit for a bad joke. All right, Harry, continue.
Yeah, I make my living off of bad jokes. Look, I would say this: no Democrat has won a midterm Senate election, I think, since Mike Gravel in Alaska since 1974. And so we have to go all the way back then to understand the trouble that Dan Sullivan is in right now. And the fact that that is where Donald Trump has to spend his time, I think, says a lot about the political map right now.
What strikes me in all the states that you point out is how diverse geographically they are. We're talking Maine, we're talking Georgia, we're talking Alaska. I think that is one of the strengths right now that put Democrats at least to be favored, even if they're not overwhelming favorites in the Senate right now to take back control, is because they have such a diversity of options in which they are playing on Republican ground.
Shermichael, as the Republican, how do you see this?
Yeah, look, I think there is diversity of options. I'm just not convinced that that diversity of options gets them to the five Senate seats that's necessary to regain control. Now look, the president, in my opinion, there are very few persuadable voters left at this point, Kaitlan. I think this is all about turnout fundamentally. And when you look at the change in delta from the public polling data that's available, there are certainly subgroups that fall within the Republican umbrella, but I think the president has to maximize turnout. Evangelicals happens to be one. Blue-collar workers, another low-propensity subgroup, happens to be one.
And so I think statistically, when you look at modeling, if you turn those individuals out, I absolutely see a pathway for Republicans to maintain Maine, for us to maintain Alaska, for us to maintain Texas. Albeit two, three, four points, that's not a significant margin, but it is enough to keep the majority.
Mayor, what do you make of that?
Well, I'll let them do the X's and O's. Basically, this election's going to be a referendum on Trump's failed presidency. People in America have said enough is enough of his chaos, of the corruption, of the rising cost. And of course, you see these three candidates in debates talking about everything except those issues. The Vice President's discussions about Talarico were just disgusting. And you would think that he would want to defend the President's record before attacking somebody else's character like he did. He should know better.
But Susan Collins is doing it in Maine. And of course, you see in the Georgia debate, they want to talk about everything except for the rising costs that are a direct result of Donald Trump's chaotic presidency. And I think they're going to issue a referendum, and I think it's going to be a good day for the Democrats. But we still have a long way to go. They have a lot of money. They've got the map that's in their favor. And so we're not at the end. We're just at the beginning of the end right now. And we have to fight hard. We have to stay at it.
Shermichael, what did you make of the Vice President's comments about James Talarico today?
Well, the Vice President can defend himself. He's a Yale graduate. That said, I'm looking at that Senate seat and I'm looking at Governor Greg Abbott, who has 92% approval among all Republicans in the state of Texas. Now, Ken Paxton certainly has his share of issues. But the expectation is that the robust operations that the governor currently has on the ground will help pull those Republican voters over across the finish line to vote for Ken Paxton.
I just find it very difficult to believe that 92% of Republicans will vote for the governor and then what, 75% will not vote for Ken Paxton? I just don't see that math playing out. And so, yeah, Talarico's running a very competitive race, but does he ultimately get to the number of votes that are necessary to regain that seat, a 30-year-plus victory that Democrats have been yearning for? I just don't see it, Kaitlan. The math is not on their side, albeit how competitive they may be.
I would just add right here, Kaitlan, is that what Shermichael is talking about in terms of the fact that, you know, look, they need a two- or three-point swing from where they are currently, if I'm understanding Shermichael, currently. And that's certainly possible. But what we are talking about, if the polling is correct, and the election were held today, and obviously it isn't, Democrats should be favored.
That doesn't mean that the polling won't underestimate Republicans. It certainly has in the past in certain states, but where we are right now, I would rather be the Democrats and not be reliant on a polling error like the Republicans currently are, which could of course happen.
Well, and to that point — well, but to that point, Shermichael, I mean, the House Speaker, Mike Johnson, he was also in Texas today. Here's what he said about the polling.
It feels like 2024 to me. I'm telling you, the polling is not reflecting this. The polling is not letting everyone know what's really happening. They're under-sampling Republicans. They're over-sampling Democrats. How many of you have answered a political poll in the last six months? And no, nobody. I'm telling you, I go to airplane hangars and big arenas like this all over the country. I can't find anybody who's coming to our events who's actually answered a poll.
Mitch Landrieu, how do you hear that?
I've been to 21 states. I've been involved in huge numbers of focus groups. People that voted for Donald Trump three times are frustrated with his chaos, his corruption, and the cost. And they're frustrated with congressmen and senators who did nothing to stop this debacle from happening. And they're going to vote.
Now, I would just caution Shermichael, he knows that six months ago the wisdom was that Texas would not even be in play. And now the Democrat is in a spot where he's actually favored to win. Whether he does or not, we'll see. But guess what's not in play: Georgia. Jon Ossoff's going to clean the clock in Georgia. You're going to see the same thing in North Carolina. We've expanded the field. Democrats are clearly on offense.
I just want to caution everybody. You know, the election's the election. So we just have to keep working at it. We put our shoulder to the wheel and we're in a better position. You'd rather be us today than the Republicans.
Well, and Shermichael, you know, another state that we're looking at that typically we would not this close to the election is what's happening in Kansas. And the Republican senator there, Roger Marshall, our audience is familiar with him. He's been on the show many times defending the president, defending the Iran war. Manu Raju was out there today. He was trying to ask him about the impact that war is having on his race. And this is what he said.
Do you think that given the impact that it's having on fuel prices, that it's time for the president to end the war with Iran?
You know, I think what you should be talking about is my opponent, that he's a child sex predator protector, that he's protected a predator for kids. You would absolutely — no, I think you guys need to talk about something that Kansans want to be talking about right now. I've given you my comments on Iran before. Look, I want this war to be over as quickly as possible.
Adam Hamilton, I should note, has denied the allegations that Senator Marshall was leveling there. But Shermichael, I mean, what did you make of that response? What did it tell you about how at least a Republican is viewing this race?
I want to put the emphasis on the latter part of Senator Marshall's statements: I want the war to end. He's looking at the same data that we're currently debating on this program. Now, look, this goes back to the initial assessment I was given at the top about the sort of delta movement in the math, right? In terms of what will some of these low-propensity Republican voters who don't typically turn out to vote — they are hard to predict and model. And Harry's sitting right next to you. He can confirm this.
So the reason a senator's campaigning with the president is because you want to get those folks out. Now, look, it is a legitimate critique and point to raise: do you run the risk of isolating some of those independents? My counterpoint to that, however, would be some of them may not necessarily move back to the Democratic side, they may decide to stay home. Going back to my initial point: turnout, turnout, turnout. Who can drive out turnout the most? I'm hopeful that we will and ultimately keep that seat.
Initial point, counterpoint, counterpoint. I like it. Harry, you know, you actually get name-dropped at the president's rallies.
A bunch. I don't know how much — I mean, I know — they like when Harry says certain things. This is just for people who don't watch the rallies as much as we do. This is a little bit of what the president has said about Harry Enten.
A majority of Republicans, say 53%, say he is the Republican president they most admire. Ronald Reagan, who traditionally has won that much, Donald Trump nearly triples up on this. Reagan at just 18%, and then Abraham Lincoln, who by most historic accounts is the greatest president of all time, but Republicans say that the president that they most admire by — what is this, six, seven times as many — Donald John Trump at 53%, easily crushing Abe Lincoln at 8%. And the Elon poll showed that he was the greatest president as well, Donald.
I feel like this line made it up on a printout at his desk.
Thank you very much, CNN. Thank you, CNN.
