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Joe Weisenthal
Joe Weisenthal
Co-host, Odd Lots, Odd Lots
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Anthropic Q3 Revenue, Europe’s Freezer Hack Scare, Northwood Raises $375M | Diet TBPN

📅 Nov 02, 2026 TBPN 28 MIN 138 VIEWS 45 SEGMENTS · 2 SPEAKERS
Sign up for TBPN’s daily newsletter at TBPN.com Diet TBPN delivers the best of today’s TBPN episode in 30 minutes. TBPN is a live tech talk show hosted by John Coogan and Jordi Hays, streaming weekdays 11–2 PT on X and YouTube, with each episode posted to podcast platforms right after. Described by The New York Times as “Silicon Valley’s newest obsession,” the show has recently featured Mark Zuckerberg, Sam Altman, Mark Cuban, and Satya Nadella. TBPN is made possible by: Ramp - https://ramp.com Public - https://public.com Cisco - https://www.cisco.com Console - https://www.console.com Crowd...

What Joe Weisenthal said

Written from the verified transcript and checked against it. Every figure links to the moment it was said.

Joe Weisenthal, co-host of Odd Lots, discussed the upcoming US midterm elections, prediction markets, AI trade dynamics, and consumer spending. He expressed trust in prediction markets as useful distillations of conventional wisdom, noting that a 40% chance of Democrats winning Texas should be taken seriously. He joked about tech's 4D chess behind a blue wave to create bottlenecks in AI compute supply. Weisenthal argued that for the AI trade to work, there needs to be a massive capabilities jump soon; he pointed to deceleration in Anthropic's Q3 revenue and expectations of 3.5% GDP growth from AI as insufficient. He supported the 'messy jobs thesis,' saying AI is good at repeat tasks but lacks true agency. He also commented on the European freezer hack attacks, Apple and Palantir earnings, Mark Walter exploring selling Cadillac F1 at a $3 billion valuation, and Northwood Space raising $375 million.

Key takeaways

  1. Weisenthal trusts prediction markets as conventional wisdom distillers, advising to take a 40% Democratic win chance in Texas seriously.
  2. The AI trade requires a massive capabilities jump soon; current deceleration in Anthropic Q3 revenue is concerning.
  3. Mark Walter is exploring selling Cadillac F1 at a $3 billion valuation, less than two months after TWG said it wasn't exiting.

Numbers and commitments

FigureWhat it refers toTypeAt
$17 billion Anthropic Q3 revenue metric 16:56
1127% Anthropic year-over-year growth metric 16:56
47% Anthropic quarter-on-quarter growth metric 16:56
40% Betting market chance of Democrat winning Texas metric 3:27
$375 million Northwood Space funding round metric 22:28
$2 billion Northwood Space valuation metric 22:28
$3 billion Cadillac F1 valuation in potential sale metric 20:16
3.5% Expected GDP growth from AI guidance 7:24
$10,000 a month Cost of AI spend per engineer price 12:40
122 degrees Fahrenheit Temperature reached in an ICA supermarket freezer after hack metric 16:56

Chapters

  1. 0:00Midterm election overview
  2. 1:07Texas governors race
  3. 3:02Prediction markets and Texas
  4. 4:24New York elections
  5. 5:31Election chaos and weather
  6. 7:07AI trade and bottlenecks
  7. 9:18AI productivity effects
  8. 10:00Consumer spending and sectors
  9. 12:40AI capabilities and agents
  10. 16:56Anthropic Q3 and freezer hack

Questions asked in this interview

9
  1. 0:14Thank you so much for joining us. How you doing?
  2. 0:22Explain the midterms to me. What are the midterms?
  3. 1:31And we're like that's a little suspicious. Like why'd they do that?
  4. 3:00What's going on in the prediction markets?
  5. 4:24What about here in New York? Is this an important election?
  6. 9:18Did you dig into that at all?
  7. 10:00I mean, in general, are you still feeling that the American consumer is undefeated?
  8. 12:08Although did you see Torston Slock over at Apollo saying what's his latest?
  9. 16:56Is it is there any targeting to it?
Joe Weisenthal 0:02 ↗
We are live from the New York Stock Exchange here in New York. We're in New York Mag. We were featured. Not really featured.
One sentence, more of a footnote, but we're technically in the New York Magazine. We're here with Joe Eisenthal.
Interviewer 0:14 ↗
Thank you so much for joining us. How you doing?
Joe Weisenthal 0:16 ↗
Love joining the third brother. Thank you. Thank you for coming to town. Yes. Always, Joe. Yeah.
Interviewer 0:22 ↗
Explain the midterms to me. What are the midterms?
Joe Weisenthal 0:26 ↗
Well, you see, in the US Constitution, you know, they elect the president every four years. No, here's the thing. You guys are probably like me in the sense where it's like I don't know. I feel like very lucky to have a job where I don't have to talk about politics very much. It's like, oh my god, thank God. Like, I get crazy because you end up talking about politics maybe like 10 or 100 times more than I do.
Interviewer 0:46 ↗
I know. Which is still not very. But unfortunately, like sometimes it matters and sometimes you can't talk about markets, you can't talk about tech.
Joe Weisenthal 0:53 ↗
Sure. Yeah. Yeah, there's a lot eventually sort of like, all right, probably should learn a little bit about this midterm thing like you guys.
Interviewer 1:00 ↗
This is my takeaway, you know, is that seems the expectation from a lot of people is the Democrats are going to have a huge night.
Joe Weisenthal 1:07 ↗
Yeah, that's the AI world. You guys should just be paying attention to the Texas governors, right?
Interviewer 1:12 ↗
Explain what's going on.
Joe Weisenthal 1:14 ↗
There's basically nobody who is data center anymore, right? But Abbott is the closest thing to the last man standing.
Interviewer 1:21 ↗
Yeah, basically. And even he has he flinching a little bit.
Joe Weisenthal 1:25 ↗
He's been flinching for months now. So it's like these like weird like moratoria that are like we should do a little more environment.
Interviewer 1:31 ↗
Yeah. You can't it wouldn't make sense for him to go into the election like super protest. Like I was even I was talking with a city council candidate who got endorsed by this like crazy group in my town, right? And we're like that's a little suspicious. Like why'd they do that? He's like, 'Ah, like we're just, you know, like, you know, I'm not committing to anything one way or another.' Like you kind of have to like, so they play both sides a little bit.
Joe Weisenthal 1:54 ↗
So no one is going into the election saying I'm into data, but some people might actually believe in things like progress and development and technology and stuff like that.
You know, obviously so much of the tech world, so much of the manufacturing world, etc. sort of sees Texas as the future. Probably deep down Abbott does himself, but he's been playing it down. But, you know, up until a few weeks ago, the assumption was that it was a lock. Texas maybe, you know, the Senate race has been competitive for a while now. The Democrat, James Terico, heavily favored, but no, but the Republican Senate nominee, most people perceive him to be like a deeply flawed candidate, like probably the least competitive Republican they could have picked. Abbott is Abbott, though. He's just like a regular Texas Republican for a long time.
Interviewer 2:40 ↗
But it's going to like now everyone thinks it's going to be close. There was actually a poll last night that came out that had hinosa his competitor up one. He's down to about 60% in the betting market. So that rounds to 50% in my book.
Joe Weisenthal 2:54 ↗
Yeah. Yeah. I thought they all the in Brazil it was 80% and then it traded.
Interviewer 3:00 ↗
What's going on in the prediction markets?
Joe Weisenthal 3:02 ↗
Here's my take. Yeah. I still basically trust markets. Like I'm at core. Yeah. Including prediction markets. Like I doubt any of us know more than what people bet like the collective wisdom that whole thing like the collective wisdom of the market. I basically believe in that.
Interviewer 3:19 ↗
Okay. So, so when you see Wait, when you see a 20% to 80% upset, you think, man, this should happen one every five times.
Joe Weisenthal 3:27 ↗
Yeah. I mean, I was pretty surprised like this is what I think. This is what I think. Yeah. Markets are really good conventional wisdom distillers and that's actually very valuable. In other words, people will say that as a sneer, they're like, 'Oh, this is just this is just conventional wisdom.' And I like, 'No, that's actually really good because if we say like' Yeah. Because this is a useful thing to have. There's like a meaningful difference between like 55. So we say, oh, this candidate A is favored over candidate B, right? What is it 55% or is it 80%.' Yeah. Yeah. Now we actually have a number that we could put on it. And so it's like, oh, what is that conventional wisdom? So I think it's pretty useful. I by and large think it's like hard for most people to confidently look at any market and say like no this is wrong. So when a market has a Democrat winning at a 40% chance of winning Texas my view is like you got to take that seriously. You got to take that seriously. Like I don't know. That's all I'm saying. That's all I think is like it's very unlikely. Yeah. Yeah. A lot of people

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Cite this transcript

APA, MLA, BibTeX
APA

Weisenthal, J. (2026, November 2). Anthropic Q3 Revenue, Europe’s Freezer Hack Scare, Northwood Raises $375M | Diet TBPN [Interview transcript]. TBPN. CEOInterviews.AI. https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3184684/

MLA

Joe Weisenthal. "Anthropic Q3 Revenue, Europe’s Freezer Hack Scare, Northwood Raises $375M | Diet TBPN." TBPN, 2 Nov. 2026. Transcript, CEOInterviews.AI, https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3184684/.

BibTeX 
@misc{weisenthal2026_3184684,
  author       = {Joe Weisenthal},
  title        = {Anthropic Q3 Revenue, Europe’s Freezer Hack Scare, Northwood Raises $375M | Diet TBPN},
  howpublished = {Interview transcript, TBPN. CEOInterviews.AI},
  year         = {2026},
  month        = {nov},
  url          = {https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3184684/},
  note         = {Speaker-attributed transcript with timestamps}
}