Dan Ives Just Changed His Forecast for the AI Boom!

📅 Nov 06, 2026 Finance Deep Dive 11 MIN 3966 VIEWS 13 SEGMENTS · 3 SPEAKERS

• Want MORE content? Join Patreon / financedeepdive • Business Contact: [email protected] Dan Ives is taking a more cautious view of the AI boom. He now expects Big Tech's capital spending growth to peak in 2027, earlier than previously forecast, as data center projects face delays and capacity constraints. He also explains why hyperscalers may be better positioned than companies like OpenAI and Anthropic as the AI infrastructure race evolves. Chapters No timestamps were included in the transcript, so these are chapter topics rather than exact time markers. Dan Ives changes his A...

Questions asked in this interview

0:23So are you putting words into action and then cutting back some of your expectations for the stocks that are in your universe?
2:07So you don't think there's any earnings fallout for any of the hyperscalers based on you paring back what you think they're going to, you know, in terms of paring back their spending?
3:12Now you're telling me that maybe we're in a later inning than you thought. Correct?
3:58Like if things are slowing as dramatically as you think they will, and if they actually slow even more than that, you're making the assumption that it just elongates the cycle. What if it shortens it?

Seema Mody 0:00 ↗

From Iran after the bell, where we'll get Scott an important read on GPU contracts and financing. Back to you.

Host 0:06 ↗

Yeah, we sure will. Thanks for that setup. Appreciate that, Seema Mody. The midterm result has AI bull Dan Ives rethinking not only the data center story itself, but how long hyperscalers will continue spending on the AI buildout. He joins us now, as you see at Post Nine. It's good to have you.

Dan Ives 0:22 ↗

Good to be here.

Host 0:23 ↗

We really needed to speak with you because you put out a couple of notes over the last 24 hours, I think, with a more cautious stance on certain parts of the AI trade. 10% fewer data centers — that's your baseline view. You also suggest that big tech capex, the growth rate now peaks in 2027 versus your previous view. That wouldn't happen until '28 or '29. So are you putting words into action and then cutting back some of your expectations for the stocks that are in your universe?

Dan Ives 0:51 ↗

Yeah, that's essentially it. I mean, you talked going into the midterms, there was definitely, in terms of potential blue wave, what that could do. I think what we've seen, especially in Texas, you know, now that that 10% of data centers — you know, and that could be low, it could be 15%, 20% of data centers that ultimately don't happen. But our view now is that capex for big tech, it peaks out in 2027, next year, and from a growth perspective.

Host 1:18 ↗

Much earlier than you expected.

7 more exchanges in this transcript

Cite this transcript

APA, MLA, BibTeX

APA

Ives, D. (2026, November 6). Dan Ives Just Changed His Forecast for the AI Boom! [Interview transcript]. Finance Deep Dive. CEOInterviews.AI. https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3205208/

MLA

Dan Ives. "Dan Ives Just Changed His Forecast for the AI Boom!." Finance Deep Dive, 6 Nov. 2026. Transcript, CEOInterviews.AI, https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3205208/.

BibTeX

@misc{ives2026_3205208,
  author       = {Dan Ives},
  title        = {Dan Ives Just Changed His Forecast for the AI Boom!},
  howpublished = {Interview transcript, Finance Deep Dive. CEOInterviews.AI},
  year         = {2026},
  month        = {nov},
  url          = {https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3205208/},
  note         = {Speaker-attributed transcript with timestamps}
}

▶

Key Quotes (2)

“YEAH. THAT'S ESSENTIALLY I MEAN, YOU MEAN YOU TALKED GOING INTO THE MIDTERMS, THERE WAS DEFINITELY IN TERMS OF POTENTIAL BLUE WAVE, WHAT THAT COULD DO. I THINK WHAT WE'VE SEEN, ESPECIALLY IN TEXAS, YOU KNOW, NOW THAT THAT 10% OF DATA CENTERS, YOU KNOW, AND AND THAT COULD BE LOW, IT COULD BE 15-20% DATA CENTERS THAT ULTIMATELY DON'T HAPPEN. BUT OUR VIEW NOW IS THAT CAPEX FOR BIG TECH, IT PEAKS OUT ”

▶ 0:51 CONTROVERSIAL POLICY

“SO TO PUT NUMBERS WITH IT, AND WE'VE TALKED TO PEOPLE ACROSS TECH DOWN IN TEXAS, ENGINEERS, ONES THAT ARE BUILDING DATA CENTERS. SO LET'S JUST SAY RIGHT NOW FROM A GIGAWATT PERSPECTIVE CALLED ABOUT 40GW IN TERMS THAT WE HAVE IN THE U.S. BY YEAR END, YOU HAD ABOUT 40 TO 45 THAT WAS GOING TO COME ONLINE. SO WHAT'S CALLED 10 TO 15 OF THAT IS PROBABLY NOW, YOU KNOW, EITHER NOT GOING TO HAPPEN OR IT'S ”

▶ 2:19 CONTROVERSIAL POLICY

More interviews with Dan Ives

EP. 58: 3rd Inning of the AI Revolution with Dan Ives, Tech Analyst, Yorkville IvesNov 04, 2026 · Pitch The PM · 28 min
Dan Ives Sees a Generational Opportunity in the AI Revolution!Nov 04, 2026 · Finance Deep Dive · 11 min
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 3rd, 2026 | Bloomberg SurveillanceNov 03, 2026 · Bloomberg Podcasts · 21 min
Apple Shares Fall Despite Upbeat Holiday ForecastNov 03, 2026 · Bloomberg Podcasts · 8 min
Bloomberg Surveillance 11/3/2026Nov 03, 2026 · Bloomberg Television · 144 min
Dan Ives: Every Hack Is a Buy Signal for CyberNov 03, 2026 · RiskReversal Media · 54 min

All Dan Ives transcripts →

About Dan Ives

Dan Ives, partner and senior managing director at Yorkville Ives & Co., has been a prominent voice in recent weeks on the state of the AI trade, appearing across Bloomberg, NBC, and various podcasts. He has described the current market volatility as a "gut check period" and a "white knuckle moment," arguing that the AI buildout is in its "third inning" of an 8-to-12-year cycle. Ives has maintained that major tech companies cannot afford to slow capital expenditures, stating that "if you take the foot off the pedal... ultimately you're going to be left behind," while also acknowledging investor patience is "wearing thin" and that companies may have only six to nine months to prove AI spending translates into monetization. He has named Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple as his top picks, and has expressed caution on Oracle due to its debt load. Ives has also commented extensively on Anthropic's planned IPO, noting that its valuation has reportedly fallen from around $2 trillion to $1.5–$1.6 trillion amid concerns about the company's massive capital needs. He has said the "deal still gets done in our view, but valuation will be the question," and described Anthropic as "the centerpiece" of the AI revolution. Additionally, Ives discussed the launch of a $200 million IPO vehicle investing in private AI companies, expressed a view that there is a 90% chance Elon Musk combines Tesla and SpaceX into a vertically integrated AI ecosystem, and commented on the midterm elections, suggesting that a Democratic wave could be negative for tech due to perceived anti-data center sentiment.

All Dan Ives appearances → Finance Deep Dive on YouTube →