So, for those of us who actually tune in to C-SPAN, this season is going to be off the hook.
Hi everyone, this is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher.
Scott, we shared our big Nvidia conversation with all you YouTube viewers earlier, but we still have a lot of news to get into. So, let's dig in. We've got new details about Anthropic's upcoming IPO and better news for the AI sector. The company has set its price range from $70 to $78 a share, valuing it at around 1.3 trillion. That's below the 2 trillion that was floated a few months ago. It's much lower, actually. And adding to the pot, seven tech giants, including Google, Microsoft, and Nvidia, are investing a total of 26 billion in the offering, further cementing these circular deals. Anthropic expects to finalize its share price next Wednesday and start trading Thursday on NASDAQ. Talk about these numbers and what's the impact on the Nvidia drama. And I'll also note we're getting a peek at OpenAI's financials. The company shared its latest results with investors, reporting that third quarter revenue jumped roughly 50% to 10 billion, but its adjusted operating losses also grew from 10.1 billion to 10.9 billion. We also learned a little while ago that OpenAI has raised 15 billion at a $1.25 trillion valuation. So, is it going to hurt or help — I mean, Anthropic's IPO, is it going to hurt or help OpenAI?
Oh, it's absolutely going to hurt it, because what they're doing here, it appears they're more focused on raising as much money as possible as opposed to the valuation, whereas SpaceX was a low float to try and get as high a valuation as possible. I think what Anthropic is trying to do, and I think it's strategically really smart, I think they're trying to empty the punch bowl of all capital available for AI, for frontier models. The amount of capital available is going to go down by, you know, $120 billion.
Well, first of all, these big tech giants are investing 26 billion, and there was also an investment of $15 billion in OpenAI. That means for everyone else but them, or who?
The IPO is going to raise about 65 billion, and they're placing 26 billion with private placement with seven suppliers to bring the total raise to about 90 billion. Google and Nvidia are buying 10 billion each. AMD 2.5 billion, Broadcom, Micron, and Microsoft 1 billion each, and TSMC at 500 million. The total would pass SpaceX's 86 billion raised in June as the largest on record. So actually, that's not fair what I just said. SpaceX raised more money than I thought. About 20% of the shares are set aside for retail investors against the typical 5 or 10%. But you know, there's a risk right now. What if a story comes out that anybody, any organization with any credibility is investigating something at Anthropic — that IPO gets shelved. I mean, can you imagine how every reporter and every member of our security apparatus is asking executives at all these companies, 'Okay, this person you've been hanging out with...' All of a sudden everyone's going to start asking the questions they should have been asking the last 5 years at these companies. Trump actually noted something in that kind of ridiculous 60 Minutes interview in which he said, you know, we had someone in an orange jumpsuit and said goodbye to your wife. And I don't think he was talking about Jensen Huang. I think he was talking about Dario — that's what most people think. They don't know what he was talking about, but he mentioned an AI executive that was in big trouble. So like, I think investigations are going to happen around all these companies, and you're right.
Oh my gosh. But just talking about — let's get back to just Anthropic on the boring stuff. The valuation has gone from 2 trillion in September to 1.1, now it's back to 1.3 after the selloff last week, and now it looks like it's being priced at about 1.44 or 1.5. Let's say 1.5. At 1.5, Anthropic would trade at roughly 18.5 times its 81 billion revenue run rate. That's if you annualize its October revenue. Its 9-month revenue was 33 billion, up from, get this, 2.5 billion a year earlier. The 9-month net loss was 104 billion, of which 94 billion was a non-cash charge of the valuation of its convertible notes. The Q3 operating loss was 567 million after a 974 million operating profit in Q2. Pricing starts November the 18th — so in, what is that, 6 days — and trading starts November the 19th. So I actually think, you know, I actually think this is going to get a pretty healthy pop.
So now you would buy it. You said you would buy it and then sell it. That's what you had said. I can make the bear or the bull case for Anthropic over the medium and the long term. The honest answer is I don't know. Any company growing this fast that has executed this well in a sector that's growing this fast — you know, you can make an argument it's a good long-term hold. And by the way, it's going to be trading at — what is that? It's going to be trading at...
If it's at 1.3, I'm just trying to say it's a multiple. It would trade at roughly 19 times its revenue rate. SpaceX went out at 120 times, and this company is growing much, much faster. You can make a bull case here. This is actually more important to the sector. But you asked me what I would do. What I'm trying to do is the following: I work with one of the investment banks that's a book runner, and I won't get much because I'm a retail investor. But I said, 'Get me as much as you can,' because here's what I'm certain of: I don't know where the stock's going to be in a year. I'm fairly certain the first trade is 15 to 40% higher than the pricing, because you make some money on that. What J.P. Morgan and Goldman do is they use Nvidia-driven AI to manufacture a pop. Anthropic can't have a broken IPO. That would be the headline around everything. Anthropic would rather raise less money, take more dilution, and have every newspaper in the world go, 'Anthropic IPO a barn burner, up 30% day one.' So, and they can perfectly calculate, most likely using AI powered by the good chips from Nvidia, they'll upload every order, and they'll say, based on all these orders from previous institutional investors, what does it look like the demand's going to be on the first millisecond this opens trading, and they will convince Anthropic executives to take the pricing that gives them a pop.
Right? So that's why the lower pricing. Correct.
So on a risk-adjusted basis, the best investment in the world — or not a best, but a great investment — is just to get allocation the night before it prices and then sell it on the first trade.
So, and OpenAI, what does this do to them? They raised this 15 billion. That's a nice tidy sum. Revenue jumped 50% to 10 billion. It's still losing lots of money. What does it do to them? Because they have a — if Nvidia is at a 1.3, this is at a 1.25 valuation it raised this money at.
The really interesting thing here is I've never seen Coke become Pepsi this fast.
If you look at the news just 12, 18 months ago...
Oh, excuse me. No, no. Well, yeah, both. I'm talking about OpenAI was Coke...
Oh, I see. Yeah. Got it. Okay. I mean, if you look back just 12, 18 months ago...
I don't like Pepsi, by the way.
Anthropic was this really good company, but a distant number two to the pioneer leader Coke, you know, the Hertz. All of a sudden, Hertz has become Avis. You know, we try harder. But they lost 21 billion last year. OpenAI's operating loss was 21 billion in 2025 and 13 billion on 13 billion of revenue. Q3 revenue was about 10 billion, up nearly 50% from Q2, and the adjusted operating loss was 11 billion. That excludes about 3 billion in stock-based compensation. Operating losses, including compensation, were 9.3 billion in Q1 and 12.3 billion in Q2. That puts the operating loss so far in 9 months at 35 billion, around 49 billion for the quarter. There's a lot of people saying this just isn't — their losses just aren't sustainable, but these growth rates are unbelievable. The question is, is Anthropic going to soak all of the oxygen or capital out of the air and it's going to be harder for OpenAI to go public?
Yeah, I probably think if Anthropic's IPO goes well, the most important thing for the sector right now is what Jensen Huang does or does not do, unless it involves more and more national security and we find that these companies have their own leaky silos. It's the reception of the Anthropic IPO because they're the demand side. If all of a sudden it appears that every front-end user of these chips is getting the types of valuations we expect, they'll have the capital to go buy more Nvidia chips regardless of who's in charge.
Well, the tech industry is also making sure by investing themselves. They want this to keep going. They want to keep this absolutely — it's in everyone's interest for this to work out well, which is where it's going to go. Both of them, actually. Speaking of everyone's interests, California's Proposition of Rich People, Proposition 40, the billionaire wealth tax, has officially been defeated with roughly 53% voting against it. The measure would have imposed a one-time 5% tax on about 250 billionaires, with most of the money going towards healthcare. It was an expensive fight. Billionaires poured $425 million into the opposition, including more than 100 million from Google co-founder Sergey Brin. But the fight over taxing billionaires is not over. Senator Bernie Sanders called this a fleeting victory and says he'll pass a federal billionaire wealth tax. I think why we have talked about this, we felt this was the wrong way to do it, but there is going to be much more of a focus on taxing the rich. There just will. We'll eventually see some sort of wealth tax pass, probably on the federal level, or tax reform in some way. Correct?
I don't think so. So first off, when both Governor Newsom and Governor-elect Xavier Becerra come out against it, and a leading teachers union came out against it. Here's the bottom line on wealth taxes: they don't work. 13 of the 16 nations that passed wealth taxes in Europe have repealed them because their Treasury receipts actually went down. So this feels good. Again, this is the problem with many, I think, progressive policies, and that is they're more focused on tickling the senses of middle-class Democratic voters than actually enacting policies that increase the Treasury such that we can fund the programs that we claim to be fond of for lower-income people. This would have chased — this legitimately would have chased some billionaires out of California. I think what happens next...
I think the solution here is the following. We need a progressive tax structure and we need an alternative minimum tax that says, 'Okay, Bezos, Sergey, Musk, big corporations, the uber-wealthy, if you have figured out a way to lower your tax rate to 6%, we need you to pay an alternative minimum tax of 40%.' And by the way, it's not going to make you any less happy.
So that happens on a federal level.
Federal tax reform, but have it be progressive tax.
And then the other big switch we need, Kara, is that borrowing money against your stock is a capital gains event. It triggers...
This is what they do. That's their trick.
It triggers taxation. Also, that when you leave California for Texas or you leave Seattle for Washington, all the wealth, all the increase in shareholder value you aggregated by leveraging the infrastructure of that state should be taxed. That tax rate should go back to the state. You shouldn't be able to build 120 billion in wealth using the incredible infrastructure of Seattle and Washington and then peace out to Florida and not have to pay any state income tax.
Yep. Agree. That's got to change.
It's a trick. But wealth taxes, I get it, folks. I get why they make sense. I get why we should do them. They don't work.
Yeah, I think yours, the progressive tax, is the way to go. And they have to do real tax reform where these people don't get to do every trick. I mean, Peter Thiel is like Olympic level at doing this and getting out of taxes. And again, I don't — I think it's gross, but I don't fault him because this is the way it's done.
They say to VCs, you have an obligation to your country to try and escape. It's going to sound terrible, but you know, people always hear me when they hear me talking about progressive tax rates. Like, 'Scott, you're welcome to write a check to the government.' I try to pay as little tax as possible.
I mean, I'm not going to disarm unilaterally. Let's just be honest, folks.
And then what you can do is, you know, what you try — now I'm defensive — you give some money away because I think hoarding wealth is a virus that infects America. But everybody is going to try and optimize their taxes. But again, my favorite stat is the tax code has gone from 400 pages to 4,000. And that 3,600 pages was inserted by lobbyists, and essentially it's a transfer of wealth from everyone to corporations and the uber-wealthy.
Yep. 100. And by the way, let's hope Lauren Jobs is going to be a lot of philanthropy. There's a lot of very funny things of the first wives club of her, Melinda Gates and MacKenzie Scott. Like...
Well, the female brain, you've pointed this out.
Man, they have a lot of money to put out.
There is something about the female billionaire brain that is just more philanthropic.
Well, I'm hoping that Lauren turns a pig's ear into a silk purse. Right. You can't run a nation based on the kindness of recently divorced billionaire women. There has to be structural fixes.
There has to be a better way. There has to be a better way.
All right, Scott, let's go on a quick break. We come back, a chaotic week in Congress.
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Scott, we're back. In the aftermath of the midterms, there is all manner of things happening in Congress this week. First, a historic upset in Mississippi. Flip a one. Mississippi. Scott, a Colom just got elected the state's first Democratic senator in more than 40 years and its first Black senator since Reconstruction. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth dodged impeachment after House Republicans were able to block the effort. 11 Democrats missed the Hegseth vote, with some blaming a traffic jam. And by the way, what a heinous behavior at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier. And kudos to the soldier who chastised him and his party. Hegseth's group was laughing and chitty-chatting away at a place that you do not chitty-chat or laugh at. Republican Congressman Thomas Massie, who led the Hegseth impeachment, by the way, is forcing a new vote over the Epstein files. He introduced a bill for survivors and lawmakers to sue the DOJ over records they believe have been unlawfully withheld. And leading the House Republicans come January will be Ohio Congressman and vocal Trump defender Jim Jordan, who was elected minority leader in a 106 to 73 vote. So, they're really doubling down, these people, on nasty people to take on the Democrats. Talk about the strategies we might see from Democrats and Republicans in January. And meanwhile, the Trump administration is already threatening congressional Democrats, saying aggressive oversight could be a crime. It's not, but they're saying so. Thoughts on all these things?
You know who sent the first Democrat from Mississippi since Reconstruction to the Senate?
Black women. Get this. I talk a lot about how young men played a vital role in this election, as it was a 38-point swing in Mississippi. About 20% of the electorate is Black women. 20%. 20%. And by the way, Black men only 10%. So Black women made up 20%. Black women turned out, 20% of the electorate. And do you know what percentage went blue?
Ding ding ding ding. 19.8%. 8% of that 20% went blue.
I mean, you want to talk about...
I want to know those tiny little groups.
I mean, it was like four Black women who wear like MAGA t-shirts. Who are they?
Well, it reminds me I ran a proxy fight to kick out the board at Red Envelope after I was kicked off the board and I was...
There's a spy situation happening there.
Well, it's not quite as romantic, but my mom was very sick and so I moved in with my mom and had a little bit of money and I'd just been kicked out of the band I'd started. And a man with a little bit of money who's bored and angry is a very dangerous thing. So, I ran a full-scale proxy fight to clear out the board and I own 12% of the company. And it's basically they vote. It's like a voting day and the shares show up and vote. And my proxy solicitor called and said, 'You got 13% of the vote,' and I own 12. And I'm like, 'So let me get this: of the 88% that could, I got 1%?' And they said, 'Yeah.' But my best thing is, the funniest thing is, he goes, 'Honestly, Scotty, that 1% was probably a mistake. These forms are complicated.'
So I would bet the 1% who did vote for Republicans probably just filled out the bubble...
So, okay, so what do we think about that? That's amazing. His commercials, speaking of marketing, his Sinners commercial and his protein — we're brilliant. And this guy didn't get enough money in this case. Chuck Schumer did recruit him, so let's give him credit. I know he's facing a lot of...
Credit for this one. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. But he does. Let me just say this candidate is superb. Like a superb candidate.
He ran on rural hospitals, Medicaid cuts, gas prices.
