A Layman Thinks About AI

📅 Nov 11, 2026 Oaktree 43 MIN 55061 VIEWS 119 SEGMENTS · 2 SPEAKERS

In his latest memo, Howard Marks, Co-Chair of Oaktree and Chair of Brookfield's Investment Solutions Group, revisits the topic of artificial intelligence, describing it as both deeply consequential and highly unpredictable. He addresses 11 questions that surround investing in AI, including who will profit and what it means for the credit markets. Howard points out that while these questions can’t be answered definitively, the presence of uncertainty doesn’t mean investors can or should ignore AI: it’s simply too important for that.

Narrator 0:06 ↗

This is the memo by Howard Marks. A layman thinks about AI.

2 more exchanges in this transcript

Cite this transcript

APA, MLA, BibTeX

APA

Marks, H. (2026, November 11). A Layman Thinks About AI [Interview transcript]. Oaktree. CEOInterviews.AI. https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3292748/

MLA

Howard Marks. "A Layman Thinks About AI." Oaktree, 11 Nov. 2026. Transcript, CEOInterviews.AI, https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3292748/.

BibTeX

@misc{marks2026_3292748,
  author       = {Howard Marks},
  title        = {A Layman Thinks About AI},
  howpublished = {Interview transcript, Oaktree. CEOInterviews.AI},
  year         = {2026},
  month        = {nov},
  url          = {https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3292748/},
  note         = {Speaker-attributed transcript with timestamps}
}

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Key Quotes (2)

“AI represents a small part of the US economy, but is responsible for an outsized part of economic growth. AI's contribution to GDP growth currently comes overwhelmingly through capital expenditures, primarily for construction of data centers. These are rising rapidly, while the rest of construction is in decline. For 14 consecutive quarters through June 30th of this year, earnings grew faster for ”

▶ 18:47 CONTROVERSIAL POLICY

“AI related debt issuance has totaled nearly $600 billion globally so far this year according to Goldman Sachs, comprising debt issued by the hyperscalers in data center/project financings and by other AI linked borrowers. Around $400 billion dollars of this went to the US investment grade debt market representing over 1ifth of total IG supply and taking the share of AI related bonds in the Bloombe”

▶ 21:58 CONTROVERSIAL POLICY

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About Howard Marks

Howard Marks, co-chairman of Oaktree Capital, made several public appearances in late 2026 discussing market conditions, artificial intelligence, and interest rates. In a CNBC interview, Marks described the AI sector as "the least knowable, least predictable thing I've ever witnessed in my career," saying he could not determine whether current enthusiasm constitutes irrational exuberance, though he acknowledged AI is "a real thing that's going to make a real change in our lives." He advised investors not to take signals from the market, which he said "exaggerates everything," and emphasized focusing on long-term fundamentals rather than short-term price movements. At the Shadow Open Market Committee, Marks discussed private credit's growth, noting a twelvefold increase in private credit loans to U.S. businesses between 2012 and 2025, and argued that the Federal Reserve's role is not to protect people from making mistakes. Marks also addressed interest rates in multiple venues, saying that current rates are "not high" relative to history and that the low-rate period from roughly 2009 to 2021 was "a real aberration." He stated he expected rates would not decline much in the near term and expressed support for the Fed reducing its communication, arguing that less guidance encourages investors to build more resilient portfolios. At the Brookfield Affiliates Investor Day, he discussed his investing history, including raising $11 billion for a distressed debt fund around the 2008 financial crisis. Marks also spoke at a church event about income inequality, saying rewards have increasingly gone to those with education and capital, and he identified federal government spending profligacy as one of the worst issues today. He continued to describe himself as a value investor and noted that there is "unusual uncertainty" in estimating earnings for pure-play AI companies.

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