John Kemper21:51
Let me set the record straight here and clarify. No, I'm just kidding. I don't know what I'm going to add to the AI discussion. But a couple of thoughts. Playing back what you just said, the last few years have been really interesting for the economy in general and banks. The way it's affected banks has been kind of interesting to watch and a little bit unsettling sometimes. I don't know if you guys were paying attention last year, but a number of banks actually failed. That doesn't happen very often. It happens episodically, and there were a few bank failures that were actually enormous banks, among the biggest bank failures in American history. It all kind of feeds back into what happened with COVID and the government response. I don't want to make it overly complicated, but basically what happened was the government dumped a ton of money into the economy, like the stimulus checks. So stimulus, and then the Federal Reserve tried to do everything that they could to make sure that anyone who wanted to borrow money could borrow money. So they not only gave out money, they made interest rates really cheap. They were trying to stimulate the economy and make sure that we didn't fall into a recession because it was a very scary time with COVID and we thought maybe we're going to have another Great Depression or something like that. But what happens when you pump all that money into the economy and drive interest rates down so low is that a lot of banks ended up with deposits in banks, and banks went out and did something with those deposits. They made loans, in particular they made a lot of mortgage loans, long-dated loans. Then all of a sudden, what happens if you dump all that money into the economy? You get really high inflation because everyone has plenty of money to spend, and it drives up the prices of goods. The Federal Reserve's job is to say, 'Wait, we want price stability. It's really a bad idea if inflation is a runaway thing.' So the way that they did that was they jacked up interest rates really quickly and made it more expensive to borrow money. Now that's supposed to put downward pressure on prices. But banks are in the middle of that. What happened was a lot of these banks made long-dated fixed-rate loans, like mortgages, that were maybe only yielding 3% a couple years ago. Now banks have those on their balance sheets for 30 years. They're really long, you can't get rid of them. All of a sudden your funding costs go to 5.5%. So now I got to borrow to fund my loans, I have to pay 5.5%. If I'm a bank and I'm saddled with all these 3% loans, well that's a good way to lose money: borrow at 5 and lend at 3. So all of a sudden people woke up and said, 'Wait a minute, my bank is either losing money every year, or if I had to mark the value of those loans, they would have negative net worth, they would be worthless.' So everybody said, 'I'm going to take my money out of the bank.' That's what a run on the bank looks like, and that's what happened last year. So you had these big banks that failed, and you can draw that connection directly back to COVID and what the government did pumping money into the economy. So that's been an interesting thing. It just reminds you there's a lot of risk in the banking business. So that's part of your question. The other thing about AI, I think it's going to change everything. I couldn't tell you exactly how, but we're already seeing it in certain applications in our business. Maybe the way that you do scoring of risk, trying to figure out where to make loans and where there's risk, AI is already helping with that kind of stuff. It's helping with finding money launderers or other criminals in the banking system. It's helping with customer service, just like any business. If you guys think about a chatbot and who you're talking to, that's already showing up in customer service. I think longer term, it's going to really help with credit decisioning and all sorts of things. The one thing about our business is it's really regulated, so there are things that you can't just turn over to a model or ChatGPT or something. You still have to have human accountability as part of it. So I think there are maybe some limits in the short term, but man, it's going to change the world.