Julia Laulis52:15
You're taking notes. First off, on losses: the big folks started their losses in the second quarter. We lost for the first time that I can remember in the fourth quarter, and it was a very small loss. It was barely — it was like 2,000, if I remember correctly. It was less than 2,000. It was very heartfelt by our entire team. Net gain is a byproduct of connects minus churn, right? So you can see what our net gain is. The pieces and parts you might not get, but we talk about it. We say, 'Wow, our connects are really down.' And we believe that is a byproduct of the housing starts and the lack of moves. Right? You know, it's 7% now, 6.5% for a mortgage, so moves are down. Starts, housing starts, like new build, you know, folks are pulling back on doing construction is starting to slow. Now, it came to us more slowly than the big guys, and that's the way it always happens. Like, whatever happens in the NFL cities usually ends up coming to our markets but later, and we have time to see it and adjust. It also, I think, has to do with fixed wireless taking connects. I mean, fixed wireless is just like DSL. Where do we get most of our connects from? Either a DSL provider or potentially a competitor in the marketplace who isn't operating as well. So both of those things depressed our connects. But our connects are depressed in markets that don't have any fixed wireless access. So I believe that it is more a general environment. So that's just talking about what is going on. And I think — I can't speak for like Comcast and Charter — but at the beginning, they may have said that they felt like it was only the housing start issue, it wasn't fixed wireless. Well, it's really hard to measure something you're not getting, Andrew. Like, I mean, it's like a false negative. Like, 'Yep, this is slowed down,' and it takes a while to figure out what goes into that recipe, what is causing that. I mean, for us, we actually went in and changed our disconnect codes for our people so that we could track it. Like, 'Oh, there never was this thing before, now there is.' Instead of saying it's competition, we're going to know what kind of competition. So that, and we also now have a third-party company who's tracking that sort of movement for us. Now, coming to churn: I mean, I've seen cable churn used to be video. For us, since at least 2014, we only talk HSD. This is the lowest I've seen churn. And I'm talking about Cable One as a monolith. And we know that we have competition in about a third of our marketplaces. So even with competition likely driving higher churn in those markets than in others, our overall average churn is the lowest that I've ever seen it. Why don't we give it? You know, we're still relatively an immature public company. So I'm going to say, I'm sure I don't know all the ins and outs of what we should be disclosing and what we shouldn't. What I do know is that our peer companies don't. Yep, so we don't. And when I think about it at a deeper level, it's almost like the difference between a board director and management, same with investors and management. Like, do you want to run the business? Do you want to know every — do you want to know what our salary is for field tech? Do you want to know how much information do we need to give versus you're entrusting us to run the business? And the bottom line, which for us is free cash flow, is where you want it to be. That is what we are driving for. We are driving that free cash flow conversion. We're driving high return on invested capital. If those aren't the metrics that an investor cares about, we would want to hear about that. And by the way, we talk to them. I mean, I just went through our top 25 having conversations, and they might bring up things related to ESG, they might bring up things related to compensation. I mean, we listen to that, and we take their suggestions to heart. That quite honestly, you'll get to spare abuse, but I guess the question is how much do you need to disclose? Because once you do it, you're going to get doing it, and then be like, 'Okay, that's not enough. Now I want to know the churn by market. Now I want to know churn by voluntary versus involuntary.' Sure, but yeah, no, I certainly hear you, buddy. I'm not trying to hide it, but I'm telling you honestly, I think in most cases, like in the case of business solutions, there is no right or wrong, there's a whole continuum. But when it comes to morality and ethics, there is a right or wrong. I have no reason to lie about churn, because if I did it for a quarter, by the time you got to the next quarter or the quarter after, the numbers would show whether I was being truthful or not. So we have no reason to — no, look, I 100% agree with you. I just know it is like there are people who think cable is a terminal zero, everybody's going to be getting their internet from Starlink. I think if that happened, actually, there would be people getting like vaporized on the street by satellite rays. But, you know, there some of the bear cases have been, 'Hey, they're not disclosing churn, and maybe it was kind of astute, especially in like Q2 when Charter and Comcast were saying, 'No, fixed wireless isn't hurting us,' but we just lost subs. And like, it really went negative after that, and they were saying, 'You know, T-Mobile added 200,000 broadband fixed wireless subs, it was all bodegas on the corner or something.' You know, but I 100% hear you on that. It's just a frequent bear case. I think that Frontier needs to be disclosing that.
Yeah, let's just be real. And by the way, it's not really helping me to see what they're disclosing, because again, I can go to point broadband or I could go to Clearwave Fiber to see what their churn is vis-a-vis, and I can tell you very similar. Not head and shoulders above us at all. The other thing is, we have to be careful about the majority of our competitors are not public. I don't know if that's true — I should be careful about what I say. There are some competitors of ours that are not public, and so any way they can get information about us — and I mean, I'm very competitive, ask anyone who works with me — if they can find out information about us and we're making it easy, I don't like that. On the other hand, I do love the idea of being transparent with the people that put their money into our company. So if they want to know what's going on, here's what's going on: fixed wireless is taking some of our connects in certain mid-America, not West, where we have the majority of our customers, and moves and housing starts are down. Our churn is really low. Our job is to go get connects, and it's not to get connects at any price. It's not to go out there with a $10 per month home broadband internet. Yep, I mean, you see some of our peers saying, 'Oh, for $40 you can get a 300 meg internet and a cellular line.' Like, oh, I know what things cost. Not a lot of profit there. Yeah, I'm not going to do that. We're not going to do that. Now, we might do it, we might consider it for a test and try it out in a small area to see what it gets us. But ultimately, we have been very focused on cash flow and free cash flow, and not just units for unit's sake.