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Julia Laulis
Chairwoman, President & Chief Executive Officer, CABLE ONE INC

An exciting time in the Cable Business with Cable One Julia Laulis (NYSE: $CABO)

🎥 Mar 20, 2023 📺 Yet Another Value Podcast ⏱ 62m 👁 1206 views
Julia Laulis, Chair of the Board, President & CEO of Cable One, Inc. (NYSE: CABO), joins Yet Another Value Podcast to discuss ...
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About Julia Laulis

Julia Laulis, Chairwoman, President and CEO of Cable One, described the company as focused on broadband and internet service under its consumer brand Sparklight, rather than as a cable company. In a podcast interview, she addressed competition, stating that fixed wireless service from other providers covers less than 35 percent of Cable One's footprint, and she expressed the view that fixed wireless is not a long-term competitive threat unless strategies change. Laulis also said that fiber overbuild competition is not new and that in some overbuilt markets the company has grown penetration and average revenue per unit. She characterized Cable One's pricing as customer-driven and value-based, noting that higher ARPU results from customers voluntarily choosing faster speeds and more data. At a Markel Group event, Laulis discussed Cable One's operating philosophy, which she described as "happy Associates ensure satisfied customers, which in turn brings about a long-term profitable business." She said the company does not issue quarterly guidance or estimates to avoid artificial pressure to prioritize short-term results. Laulis also noted that the company has terminated employees who achieved strong results but violated company values. She described Cable One as "the land of second chances" and said mistakes are necessary for taking smart risks. Laulis emphasized that growth is a byproduct of doing the right things, not an objective in itself)Skip

Source: AI-verified profile updated from Julia Laulis's recent appearances. Browse all interviews →

Transcript (59 segments)
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Narrator0:04
Investing in the real assets that underpin our digital world has never been easier. We are pleased to bring you this podcast in partnership with Roundhill Investments, the advisor to the Roundhill IO Digital Infrastructure ETF (BYTE), which trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol BYTE. The fund tracks the BYTE Index, which measures the performance of 40 leading global digital infrastructure businesses such as towers, mobile communications, fiber and fixed-line connectivity, and data centers. For perspectives and more information, please visit roundhillinvestments.com/ETF/BYTE. Please read carefully: investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing in BYTE. Distributor: Foreside Fund Services, LLC.
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Andrew Walker0:48
Alright, hello and welcome to yet another Value Podcast. I'm your host, Andrew Walker. If you could like this podcast wherever you follow, wherever you're listening, it would mean a lot if you could rate, subscribe, review, whatever. Doing with me today, I'm happy to have Julia Laulis. Julia is the CEO of Cable One. Julia, how's it going?
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Julia Laulis1:05
Great, thank you so much, Andrew.
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Andrew Walker1:07
Hey, thanks for coming on. Let me start this podcast with a quick disclaimer. Just a disclaimer to remind everyone: nothing on this podcast is investing advice. We've obviously got the CEO of one of the largest cable companies in the world here, so a little bit different, but everybody should remember there's risks in investing. Please do your own work, consult a financial advisor. That out of the way, Julia, I'm really excited to have you on. I followed the cable space for a really long time. I know the catalyst for you coming on is we're both going to be at Markel's Investor Day on May 17th in Virginia, so we're hoping to maybe shine a little awareness on that. Tell anybody who's interested in the Cable One story, the Markel story, come on out and join us if they want to. But look, it's a great time to talk because it's a really exciting and scary time for the cable space in general. You know, just about every cable stock is down 50% over the past year. You talk to cable investors, you're going to hear fears of fiber overbuild, especially fixed wireless access these days. We can dive into each of those topics, we can dive into any topic you want, but I just wanted to start as the CEO of a cable company in March 2023, kind of what are your overall thoughts on the cable business today?
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Julia Laulis2:11
Yeah, thank you. I thought I would just highlight that I don't consider Cable One one of the largest cable companies in the US, certainly not the world. We don't even consider ourselves a cable company, even though that's in our parent name. We're branded to our consumers as Sparklight because we focus on broadband, on internet service to our consumers. But starting out with what are my thoughts about the cable industry, I think about how the cable industry — and that's, you know, some people call it the connectivity industry now, some might even think we're infrastructure — but it started out originally to get television signals to these rural areas that could not get it, like they were missing out because the signals wouldn't go that far. So in the beginning, cable started to serve the needs of people and communities, and I think that's what these businesses are doing today, now albeit with different products, which had really big ramifications during the pandemic. But that is what companies are doing today, and Cable One specifically, Sparklight specifically, that is what we are doing. We have really tremendous assets, so that's our hybrid fiber cable networks that are either in the ground or on poles in the air, and our people. The job of those assets is to bring the world essentially to our communities, whether that's entertainment, education, medicine, or opportunities for businesses. That is what the cable industry is doing now. The outside world seems to think it is somehow different than it was even eight months ago, but that is what the industry started doing and that is what the industry is still doing, in my view.
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Andrew Walker4:04
Perfect. Well, I guess just one thing, so we'll start with a Cable One specific question. You know, and this might jive both into the FWA worries and the fiber overbuild worries, but you know, Cable One is different in a lot of ways than other cable companies. As you said, look, for a lot of cable investors, Cable One when you guys spun out of Graham, y'all were the first ones you said, 'Hey, video doesn't matter.' Y'all were the original people who focus only on broadband, completely ignoring TV. You know, you said we'll sell TV if people want it, but we're gonna sell it to them at cost, we're not subsidizing that. Worked great, margins great, the stock went on a huge run. The other thing that's different is your Safe Harbor strategy, right? You focus on small towns, small cities, and large towns, and people love that. I do think over the past year, people have started to worry, 'Hey, this focus on the small cities, large towns, does that leave them a little more prone to fixed wireless coming in?' So many thoughts in my head. I mean, you did a really nice job of sort of — well, I threw out about 15 different things for you.
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Julia Laulis5:05
Beautiful context, but it — you know, we're in this industry so we're lumped into cable, but we do kind of consider ourselves contrarians, starting with our different strategy back in 2013, 2014. Let's talk about where we operate, that Safe Harbor that you talked about: these small cities, large towns, rural America. We have been doing this since we were born, back in '86, so for decades. Rural is kind of cool now; we were loving these communities decades ago. And if you look at, we're incredibly dispersed. We don't have consolidated markets in large areas, and it's definitely not urban NFL cities. So our average market is about 58,000 homes passed and about 20,000 customers. What that means is whatever is affecting one market isn't likely to affect another because of that geographic disbursement. It also means that these are markets that tend to be smaller in size, and so you're not going to get a lot of density, and the rural nature of them necessarily means at least probably for both, quite honestly, fixed wireless and fiber, it is going to be more expensive to build into our market. So let's figure this out: it's going to be more expensive to build, you're going to have less density, less access to consumers, your ROI is going to be less than it is in other areas. So where do you want to put your money?
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Andrew Walker6:48
Look, I think that's what people — that's why people were loving us all up till, I'd say, mid-2021, right? Because there was the fiber overbuild threat, and as you said, these are more dispersed, it's always going to make more sense for an AT&T or Verizon to go upgrade New York City or a big city versus going to a rural town because there's more people. So as you lay that pipe, as you lay that fiber, you can amortize each line of fiber over more houses, all that. But I think what people have started to worry about is fixed wireless, which we're seeing fixed wireless is really targeting places where they have lots of excess spectrum. I think people are saying, 'Oh, if you think about where you've got lots of excess fallow spectrum, every single gigahertz is going to get used in a large city. You know, New York City, they're just desperate for every piece of spectrum. If you go out to the rural cities, it kind of feels like, hey, maybe these wireless guys just have so much excess spectrum they can sell the fixed wireless as almost a side business, but they can really utilize all this excess spectrum.' So I think people are worried rural is right in the targets for fixed wireless these days.
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Julia Laulis7:48
I think you're right, Andrew. That is the concern, and I find that a little bit interesting too. First of all, let me be clear: I want every home in America to have access to the opportunities that the internet affords them. Right? I mean, that is — we've been working on that way before it was cool, so that is what we want. So whether you're going to get your access from Starlink or Project Kuiper or from fixed wireless, fiber, traditional cable, we want you to have access. But when I think about fixed wireless specifically, let's take T-Mobile because they're the most aggressive. They have less than 35% of our footprint covered by their unlimited service, so 65% of our people can't even get it. And I can tell you, I just drove through one of our towns — there's not service available. I mean, there's literally nothing there. The vast majority of the West — doesn't mean it's always going to stay that way, but right now there's very little overlap. I do think that fixed wireless for the time being offers some consumers a way into the product. It is at a very low price, and if they have coverage, they can take it. But I don't see it as a long-term play unless they change their strategy. And let's talk about this: I mean, there you've got a couple of players, and they're doing things very differently. Right? Think about AT&T, and they're talking over and over again about this isn't profitable, we're not going to do it, we're not going to lose focus, our end game is on something else. And so I wonder about sustainability or even what the purpose of it is. You said it's sort of like a side thing, like, 'Hey, we have this here, let's get some money for it for a period of time.' I hope that's not the strategy, because as a consumer, I would feel incredibly let down when, you know, three months from now, you have so many — I mean, what's your primary purpose? Is it wireless? Is it cellular customers? Well, you've gotten more cellular customers, and now my fixed wireless has buckets.
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Andrew Walker10:13
I guess on the AT&T, I do agree with you though. They've also said, 'Hey, maybe we'll use fixed wireless in the most rural areas as like a stopgap to getting them to fiber for a year or two.' But on the other side of fixed wireless, I think you guys do have experience with fixed wireless as well, right? Which makes you interesting because you've talked about using fixed wireless to fill up, I believe it was your CFO who called them the 'donut holes' in your coverage, you know, little areas where you've got cable around the outside and maybe you're missing a spot here or there, you can use fixed wireless. And then you guys have invested in Nextlink and Wisper, which are fixed wireless plays. So I just wanted to ask you, what have you seen, kind of ignoring the competitive factors, just in your investments and your experience with fixed wireless?
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Julia Laulis10:50
Right. So we have said that what we want to do is reach these rural communities and connect them to the world via broadband, and we started walking down the path of doing fixed wireless because of its lower cost to serve in super rural areas. Then we found other folks that were doing the same thing, so we sort of have this filter for either M&A or for investments: rural broadband, best-in-class. Like, they couldn't just be offering broadband at 10 megs or something like that; they had to be the best in that marketplace. And that is what you have with Wisper and Nextlink. Even Nextlink, they will serve rural areas with fixed wireless, but once they get a certain amount of density, they go in and build fiber, and then they can move that fixed wireless equipment to another area. So we do have a bird's-eye view, and that's what's really wonderful about our investments. I mean, we have fiber companies, we have fixed wireless companies. We can talk to them about a myriad of metrics, whether it's churn or service calls or SAC costs, and compare it to what we're doing. I think one thing that we have to talk about when we're talking about fixed wireless is data usage.
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Andrew Walker12:07
And that was going to be my next question. You've got a great slide, Slide 44 from your 2022 investor deck, that's where I was going. So please go ahead with data usage.
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Julia Laulis12:18
Well, so data usage, it popped a bit during the pandemic, but if we look over a five-year period, it's at a 26% CAGR, and it is not stopping. I mean, we have about a fifth of our people that are using over a terabyte of data right now, and that sort of throughput is not available with fixed wireless. And I guarantee you, there are — I was gonna say young people, that sounds ageist, and I'm old, so I'm not ageist — but there are people in their garages, like some founders that we can think of, that are inventing things that are going to take more data throughput. They know that pipe exists, and they saw that it was incredibly reliable during the pandemic. I mean, there wasn't Zoom; we weren't using Zoom for everyday life before the pandemic. What is next? What are my grandkids going to be teaching me how to use that is coming, you know, in my world, to a pipe outside of my home and then wirelessly throughout my home?
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Andrew Walker13:21
Yeah, and tell me if this is too simple a model, but one thing that I've kind of always thought in my head is, like, you know, you and I, I'm sure we're both on Zoom right now. Maybe you're getting your internet over a wired ethernet connection, or maybe you're on wireless, but you know, most of the internet you consume is done over a wireless router, just over normal wireless, right? Like, there's a cable coming into your house, and then the wireless is doing the last 30 feet. Whether the last 30 feet, 400 feet, 800 feet are wireless or not, cable in many ways — it ultimately comes back to cable has fiber laid very, very deeply. It is the best, deepest fiber in most of the places it competes. Whether it's over fixed wire or something, it just seems like the cable assets are ultimately going to be the best to handle that increasing data usage, as you said. I don't know if you want to add anything.
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Julia Laulis14:07
I don't think it's too simple. I think about my kids, and they don't call it broadband, they don't call it internet, they don't say they have an ISP. They say, 'My Wi-Fi provider.' That's what they call it. And so it is the way people access — I mean, it's what they're doing with their cell phones in their home too. Who's writing over Wi-Fi that comes to them from their broadband provider? More than likely, the vast majority anyway.
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Narrator14:37
And now a quick word from our sponsor. Comprised of 40 of the world's leading digital infrastructure businesses, the BYTE ETF, ticker BYTE, trades on the NYSE and tracks the BYTE Index. BYTE looks globally for companies such as mobile tower, fiber, and data center operators. For perspectives and more information, please visit roundhillinvestments.com/ETF/BYTE. Read carefully: investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing in BYTE. Distributor: Foreside Fund Services, LLC.
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Andrew Walker15:12
I mean, I think you guys have kind of said it, and I know Charter and Comcast have both said it. They say, 'Hey, we kind of look at fixed wireless subs as a parking place for future cable subs.' Right? As data usage continues to go up, or as more people join the fixed wireless network and it gets more unreliable, what is it that ultimately turns a fixed wireless customer into a parking place for a future cable customer? Is it just that the fixed wireless network collapses under demand, or is it that the demand for speed continues to increase? So, you know, right now I know you guys offer a gig in most markets. I don't think most people need a gig, but maybe five years from now, everybody needs two gigs, and fixed wireless simply can't handle that.
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Julia Laulis15:55
No, I think that is exactly the case. I think it could be a collapse in local areas based on cell sites that they have or don't have, as well as increasing demand. I mean, you need a reliable service. I mean, you couldn't be doing your value broadcasts, your podcast, if you didn't have a reliable connection. And it is based on data. I mean, people are using it now. Now, a lot of times, especially consumers get confused about speed versus data, and so both have a value component, right? So my guess is that there will be innovations that require more speed down and up, but at this point in time, at this point in our network, we have utilization that hangs around 23% for both. In other words, there's plenty of capacity for both up and down. A lot of times you hear about symmetrical speeds, fiber. They're not using the 20 gigs up that we're giving them right now, let alone symmetrical gig by gig. But our network can do that too, and we'll talk more about that later, I'm sure, about IPTV and how that is.
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Andrew Walker17:11
There were about four different angles I wanted to take from what you just said. It's all connected, but let me just wrap up the fixed wireless thing with something I think you alluded to before. When you guys have been questioned on launching an MVNO, I think you've also said, 'Look, the reliability in our networks — like, we're not watching MVNO because forget about fixed wireless. A lot of our networks, our rural customers, don't have reliable cell phone service, and it would be a brand problem if we partnered with an MVNO and they were getting unreliable cell phone service, even though we're not providing it, our name's on it.' We can't do an MVNO because they don't have — that would be like 3G voice, right? So how are people going to come in and launch fixed wireless? Obviously, that's not all networks, but a lot of them. I don't know if you want to talk to that reliability.
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Julia Laulis17:55
I mean, it is — there's a bunch of pieces related to where we go with potential of selling a wireless service to our customers. Number one: do customers want it? Do they need it? Can we provide a better value? Will it provide something to us in terms of profitability or lower churn leading to profitability, customer satisfaction, those sorts of things? Again, I was driving through a market, and I was talking to someone, and my call dropped repeatedly. And it is a somewhat mountainous area of Arizona, so it makes some sense — it's hard to build there. I mean, it was hard for us to build there, so I get why none of the major providers — in one of these markets, I had to switch my daughter from her provider, which I would love to say who it was because they had absolutely no coverage, to another provider who did have some coverage, otherwise I would never be able to talk to her while she was away at school. So that is what I think it was Todd that brought it up. That's what he was talking about: 'Okay, if I partner with Brand X, but they don't have coverage for our towns, how does that reflect on us?'
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Andrew Walker19:02
It's sort of a negative halo, completely. Just as we're here, I was going to do this a lot later, but since we're talking MVNO anyway, you mentioned, 'Hey, if we do an MVNO, the reliability concerns are probably number one, as you said, the negative brand halo.' But you also did start talking about profitability, improving churn, and stuff. And Comcast, particularly Charter, and it seems the other cable players are really all in on the MVNO strategy, right? They're accelerating, they're leaning into it, they're cutting price to increase adds, they're doing everything. What are you seeing, again aside from the reliability issues? Is there anything else you're seeing in the data that kind of makes you guys hold back from launching them, versus those guys leaning a whole lot into it?
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Julia Laulis19:42
Well, I mean, we're definitely seeing conversions, right? But we've seen things — call them in hindsight — flash in the pan things that were going to be really good. Let's take an example like video on demand. 'Oh, here's what you need to do. You need to buy this equipment for your headend, you have to do all these complicated contracts, then you're going to be able to offer this, you're gonna have to do some software work, and you're gonna be able to offer customers this, and we think we're gonna make money out of it.' And I was like, 'Well, okay, we're not making money out of it, but it's reducing churn, customers are happier because they have it.' I don't know. I mean, I personally looked at the business model for us — not other people, we don't have the scale of other people — but for us to get into the business, and if our focus being on our customers and our communities, if we believe they need this as a connection point, we could do it in about six to eight months. But there has to be a reason. Either it's a really customer-centric reason, which will end up being profitability related as well, or not. Right now, the signs are pointing to it's not our time. We have a focus: it is providing broadband to our communities. We have a ways to go in increasing penetration in the majority of our markets. Not all — markets are different, they're not monolithic. So we're going to stay focused on that for the time being. I think Comcast and Charter have a lot of scale. By the way, we talked to them: 'Hey, what are you seeing?' They do say, you know, they give us information, and they say it's early on, but we think this. We talk to the others, the smaller and mid-sized folks that are trying it through a different method, through a different partner, and get information from them. And we'll do the right thing for our customers, for the business, when the time is right. Right now, it's not right. We don't get into one more thing when we're spending our time with heads down running the business and executing well.
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Andrew Walker21:56
Let me switch to the other thing, and this affects Cable One less than maybe some of the other bigger players, but it does affect you, and that is fiber overbuilding. I mean, I think Boise and Gulfport are two larger markets. I think Boise, Google and Lumen have both said they're gonna do a fiber overbuild there. Gulfport, I think AT&T said they were gonna do it. If I go over, you can correct me from wrong, that's just from memory. But, you know, fiber overbuilding, investors are worried about it. We can talk specifics, but I guess just first, is this a little bit of deja vu all over again? Like, it's not like this is the first time we've had fiber overbuild worries. We've had cable overbuild worries in the past. We had Google Fiber in like 2008, 2010. Is this deja vu? What do you think about fiber overbuilds?
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Julia Laulis22:39
Yeah, I don't know if it's the exact same thing. I've been in the business for 39 years, and I can remember my father calling me up agitated. He's like, 'There's this thing, they're launching these satellites, and I think it's going to put your guys' business just on a downward trajectory. Are you sure you're okay?' And he was talking about DirecTV and DBS. So certainly, people — and I actually remember from a very practical standpoint, being in Alexandria, Virginia, when then Bell Atlantic said they were going to come overbuild us with fiber. We upgraded our plant and launched switched telephony and internet service in the mid to late 90s before anyone else in the country did it, and ended up doing just fine. So you're right, competition from any sort of technology related to either the video business or now the internet business is not new. We have been dealing with it for decades. Again, when you have markets as dispersed as ours are, I mean, I can think of one where AT&T built fiber and Grande came in and overbuilt us decades ago. So there's three of us there, and we grow in that market every month. Every month we grow. Now, when it first happened, there was disruption, and then it normalized, and then we went back to getting our share. So that's one example. I can think of two of our markets that are overbuilt with fiber. One super small — we've lost no customers there. There's been no — I mean, the people that came in, they came, they're stepping out of their footprint, and they just didn't know what they were doing. And so, God bless them, we do just fine there. There's another larger market that has a fiber overbuilder. We have grown penetration by almost six points since they came in. The thing about competition is, if they're doing advertising, we can end up — if we're the better operator — we can end up growing in terms of units and our PSU. At the year-end at our last earnings call, I talked about our PSU, our ARPU grew in competitive and non-competitive markets. So it's not just like, 'Oh, Cable One, you're not taking good care of your customers, you're jacking up your rates in your non-competitive markets.' No, the advertising that's being done by the fiber folks, because they're usually their pricing is focused on a gig, which by the way costs more, means that people are like, 'Well, I can get a gig from Cable One,' and so our PSU gets selected. So is your ARPU lifted? I mean, I think another thing I'd say — and I apologize for interrupting — is that 65% of our footprint, well, it's more than that for fiber. We have 25% overlap with fiber, so 75% of our people do not have access to fiber. I think 30-35% is our total competitive, so they have a competitor, it could be an HFC competitor. And again, the fixed wireless is less than 35% too, so the vast majority have — and Blick who's doing DSL potentially — and us. That will change over time, but again, if you have a chance to invest your money in something, are you going to go to less dense, hard to build, expensive to build places, or others? So I expect there to be more competition over time. That's fine. Competition makes us better, and things normalize. I mean, do you drink Coke or do you drink Pepsi? Do you wear Levi's or do you wear Seven for All Mankind? Do you have T-Mobile or do you have AT&T? There's the American way to have choice. But that doesn't mean that there can only be one provider of service, especially if you're someone who has been in the market for decades and you have a local workforce. 80% of our workforce is local. It's resident in these markets. We are neighbors to our customers. We see our customers at baseball games, at church, in the grocery store. I mean, I myself am wearing a Sparklight shirt, and I'm going into a grocery store when I'm in market. Someone may talk to me about an offer, maybe even about a problem. I talked to a customer yesterday who had moved into one of our markets from Michigan, and I called her back to follow up on an issue that she had with our new Sparklight TV, and she was like, 'I am blown away that you called me.' And I'm like, but she wrote me a letter, you had a problem, we needed to fix it, I needed to make sure you're okay. I mean, that is what you get from someone who's been in these communities for decades and isn't just being drawn in now for the money.
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Andrew Walker27:49
That's great. Let me just quickly — you mentioned earlier that your ARPU was increasing in both fiber and, I'll call it competitive, actually in both competitive and non-competitive markets. Is it kind of increasing at the same rate in both, or are you seeing a divergence?
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Julia Laulis28:01
Yeah, you know, I honestly would have to go look, otherwise I'd be telling you something that I don't know. Absolutely fine. But that's a good question. I can go look and follow up with you. But the fact that it's growing in both — like, I think what people are afraid of is, 'Oh, there's going to be competition, and you're going to lose customers, and because they're going to come in with lower price, you're going to have to lower your price, and it's going to be just a melee of chaos.' And I think that's potential in some places. I can't, I don't know what things competitors may or may not do, but I have seen people come into our markets either in the past or more recently, and I found them to be relatively rational. And they love the idea of doing things simply, and so they basically advertise high-end service prices, and we have the same thing or something very similar. Like, we don't always have symmetrical speeds, right?
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Andrew Walker29:02
You know, it's funny, this is a little changing, but less so recently. But especially in like 2021, when everybody was upset, all investors were obsessed with TAM and everything, a frequent question I would get was, 'Hey, Cable One is smaller, Altice is larger. If you're a Verizon or AT&T, why don't you just overbuild them and then offer fiber internet for $5 per month and take all the share and bankrupt your competitor, and then you can raise your prices in a monopoly market in 24 months?' And I would always say, 'I guess you could, but you'd burn so much money in the meantime.' And like, yeah, maybe you would. Let's take Altice, maybe you would bankrupt Altice. Altice might bankrupt themselves, who knows? But it's not like those cable assets would go away. So you've bankrupted your competitor, and all you've done is lit all the money you can imagine on fire. So I think people forget, even with a competitor, these are duopoly markets. It's not like we're gonna price these things down to zero. You need to get a return on this $3,000 per home pass that you're spending to do a fiber.
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Julia Laulis30:08
Exactly. And you've seen recently, every single fiber provider — and I say that because I cannot think of one that hasn't said, 'We plan to go more slowly until 2023' for a variety of reasons, right? Whether it's supply chain, whether it's the markets and access to capital, whether it's access to labor, whether it's what they're seeing in their penetration rates that it's making them go, 'Hmm, the model said we would get this, but real life is different than the model.' Because let me tell you, it is very different to build a network versus run a network with customers. Maybe we'll ask Google about that. You know, we're going to go build this thing called Google Fiber. And I think — I don't know, I don't work there — but my bet is that they found that, 'Wow, this dealing with customers on a day-in and day-out basis, that takes a lot of work.' And building it was one thing, running it and operating it for the long term for the good of those communities is another. That's another thing related to ARPU which sort of sticks in my craw, where people are like, 'Oh my gosh, of course your ARPU is high, your markets are moated.' You know, we can't have it both ways. Some people say, 'Oh, you're moated, you have the Safe Harbor,' and others are like, 'Oh, that means things are gonna be terrible for you.' Which is it, by the way? But um, gosh, now I forgot where I was going because I got myself all riled up.
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Andrew Walker31:32
No, that's great. Actually, the next thing I was going to ask is pricing. Maybe I'll come back to my last one or two questions on fiber later, but let's stick with pricing. I do think a lot of people, and especially maybe a lot of the more negative press coverage when they cover cable in general or Cable One in particular, goes and looks at the ARPU for Cable One and says, 'Look how high it is.' Cable One, I think the ARPU from memory is approaching $80 per unit. You know, Charter and Comcast are probably in the $65 to $70 range. So I think more negative coverage really can say Cable One's pricing is $10 per month higher than their peers, or people would say, 'Oh, look how fast they're raising pricing.' And I think you would rightly push back on both those points. So I've kind of teed you up, I'll just toss it over to you.
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Julia Laulis32:18
I was like, that's where my rant started. 'Oh my gosh, they must be taking advantage of these poor customers in these rural towns because their ARPU is so high.' And I'm like, okay, that is not our purpose. We are an incredibly purpose-driven organization. We start with our associates, who need to be happy in order to take care of our customers, in order to get to a long-term profitable business. And yes, we are profitable, but that is put third as part of a natural chain. So our pricing is actually — likely, I mean, again, I'd have to do a statistical study — but the lowest, definitely the big operators. Up until last year, our entry price was $55 for 100 megs. We sunset the 100 meg product, and now 200 megs is our entry product, and it's $65. And that is a great value. I am not paying that in Phoenix, I can tell you that. So what's happening is customers are choosing to have things that they value. It might be faster speeds, it might be more data throughput, it might be other value-added items that we offer. And because they're adding that on, it is a pull — they are coming to it. We aren't pushing them to it. They get to choose. Our ARPU is higher. We haven't done — I mean, I think from 2015 was a rate adjustment year. We didn't do another one for like seven years. We recently increased the price of our modem this fall because we're launching a new Wi-Fi modem that we think is going to bring a better in-home experience for our customers. So that went up. Now, not everyone owns or releases a modem from us; they can own their own modem too. So they have a choice: do you want to buy your own modem, or do you want to lease one from us? So again, we're not trying to create a monopoly-like situation. What we're simply doing is creating choice for customers. We have — actually, recent selling rates, which I won't give because they're not — I haven't made them public in other ways — but a third, based on our last earnings call, a third of our people are taking a gig service. That costs more than the entry-level 200 meg service.
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Andrew Walker34:41
Just one of the things you mentioned was data throughputs, and I think you guys are the only ones who have kind of the upsell for data caps, and it goes away if I remember. I looked the other day: if people take your highest tier, which right now is a gig, they get unlimited data. And if people take under that, I mean, they get a lot of data. You would really have to be using a lot of data to hit the cap, but you guys will charge them about $10 for every 100 gigs over 600 gig if they're on like the 500 meg plan or something. Can you talk about — I think you're the only broadband provider that's really doing the data throughput. Can you talk about that?
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Julia Laulis35:13
I think Mediacom does it as well. They're not public, so to me they're basically — but yeah, they do it as well. And we say data guidelines, not data caps. But yes, there are data guidelines to many of our plans. And the way we viewed it was this was the fair and appropriate way. There are — and I can look it up right now — how many customers use less than say 300 gigs a month? And if I use 300 gigs a month, maybe that's like my parents, I shouldn't have to pay more because you're using a terabyte a month. So that was the reason why we started it at the beginning. And less than 10% of our customers went over their data guidelines, so 90-plus percent of people were not paying extra for any data guidelines. A percentage were. We have launched different options, like an unlimited option, so you could have a really low speed service but with high data throughput, because again, what do you value? And at a gig, we thought, let's make it easy. If you want a gig, we have it, and we're going to include unlimited data as part of that.
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Andrew Walker36:33
And I assume that's one of the reasons why it's selling really well too, like it's an all-in price. I have unlimited data with my cellular provider. I don't need it. I can see how much I use, I probably should go down to a lower level plan, but I do it for peace of mind. No matter where I am, I know that I have that unlimited data.
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Julia Laulis36:47
So we do have a portion of our ARPU, but it's really small, that comes from that usage-based billing, which is what we call it. But the majority of it is coming through selling to higher tiers and upgrades to higher tiers, or people buying unlimited data.
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Andrew Walker37:05
Yeah, and it does strike me like the output-based pricing, as you said, it's about $10 per month if you go over, and it's kind of like going over once is the difference between upgrading to the next tier. So it's a really nice way so that it just takes — like, if you're at 200, you might as well just jump to the 300 level service, or maybe the 500, or maybe the gig.
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Julia Laulis37:29
Quite honestly, we're looking at our pricing and packaging right now because we've learned a lot. We've learned a lot from our investment partners, who again have different arrays of technology that they get to consumers, and we've learned a lot from watching competitors in our markets and others. And so I think it's time for us to revisit that. There was a point in time — I'm trying to think, it was probably around 2018 — where our ARPU growth was just far outpacing our unit growth. And so I think we're there again, and it's time to sort of right-size to get those both in balance. So we need to make sure that what we're offering the consumers is a value, because they are going to vote with their wallet.
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Andrew Walker38:09
Perfect. Let me switch you to a completely different track, but we started to allude to it earlier. You guys were the first, or among the first, to say, 'Hey, video, we don't make any money on it. All the money's in broadband. We're gonna de-emphasize video.' Now you guys are taking it a step further. I mean, I've seen some peers talk about doing this in the future, but you guys are the first to actually do this. Y'all are switching to kind of the IPTV, which is going to free up a lot of spectrum, you know, improve the capacity of your whole network. But I just wanted to talk to you about what is the switch to IPTV, why is this big for you guys, how does this improve the economics of the business?
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Julia Laulis38:47
Yeah, well, we definitely were the first, and I think other people are still having a hard time. It's like, we look, people want to be entertained and informed, and you get that through video programming. But we could see that there were other choices and opportunities that were very customer-driven that were coming on the scene, AKA streaming services. And we were a size of a company that did not have the ability to get really great pricing from these programmers. And so you know, double-digit, triple-digit increases. And we were like, 'All our poor customers, we don't want to pass these increases on to them.' We ended up subsidizing our other products and not passing that along. And we're like, 'Wait a minute, that, coupled with doing a really simple analysis of here's what video brings in, here's the direct cost, wait, we have all these indirect costs, this is ridiculous. This is bringing no value to us.' And we have the negative halo thing going on too, because every time we got an increase from programmer X or Y, we passed it along to the consumers, and the consumers hated us, not understanding we were simply taking the money and giving it to someone else, keeping a dime. So that started our path. The next thing that led to this idea that IPTV would free up spectrum in a very capital-efficient way was us remembering how we launched gig. Now, we launched a gig across the majority of our footprint before any of the majors did it, and we did it as a defensive move back in 2016. Having a gig everywhere, so like, 'Hey, we have a gig everywhere, why should anyone come into our markets?' What we did is we found bonded 30 channels together, we dropped video programming so that we could use that frequency for internet, and we launched a gig quickly. We didn't have to upgrade our networks to 1.2 gigs. I mean, it was an incredibly capital-efficient and fast way to get a gig out to our customers. We think IPTV is kind of like that. I mean, IPTV just takes — and I am not a technologist, our CTO is probably rolling around on the floor as I discuss technology — but if we take the spectrum that video is taking right now and use that for internet, so internet-based video, IPTV, we call it Sparklight TV, we can take that bandwidth and allocate it back to broadband for downstream or downstream and more upstream. And we're doing that in a couple of our markets, and we'll continue to do so throughout the year and throughout the future in order to free up space. It doesn't mean that we're never going to put fiber in the ground. We will, we have been doing that for decades as well. But it gets rid of us buying boxes, which was a huge capital outlay and tracking that inventory. Consumers are by and large used to that — not all of them, believe me, I've talked to some. So streaming is a way of life for people, and it gives us access to more capacity for internet in a relatively quick manner.
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Andrew Walker42:09
There's a great slide from your 2022 investor deck that everybody should go check out. I think it was Slide 47, but it shows just how much — people don't think about it, but legacy video you have to have like dedicated channels as you said for all of that. And it shows you take this legacy video away, as you said, you guys have been de-emphasizing for 10 years. Not many people get it. If you took it away, most people just instantly go switch to streamers. You take it away, and it just frees up so much capacity for downstream and upstream as you're saying. You mentioned fiber. I do think at I — you've heard a couple of people ask you guys, and we've seen Altice go out and do this. A lot of people said, 'Hey, why not just skip DOCSIS 4.0 and go straight to fiber, fiber to the home, or do kind of fiber overbuild yourself?' Most cable companies have said DOCSIS 4.0 is going to be fine, we're going to be very competitive, we've got a roadmap very far into the future. I mean, if you ran things out to infinity, eventually everyone will be fiber to the home, but you don't have to go there right away. You can do DOCSIS 4.0, maybe DOCSIS 5.0, and then you can get there. But I rambled a little bit. I want to just interview: what do you think about the idea of fiber to the home overbuilding yourself?
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Julia Laulis43:18
Yeah, so first of all, I think about Altice, who says, 'You know, we're not going to follow the DOCSIS 4.0 path.' Well, they're not CableLabs members, I guess that doesn't surprise me all that much. But they've walked that back a little bit recently, while they're saying, 'Look, we're going to do it in old Cablevision areas, right? But we're not going to do it in the old Suddenlink areas.' Okay, Suddenlink areas are like our areas. They're more rural. They're likely seeing that, 'Oh, it costs a lot of money to do this, and the density isn't so high.' We have a recurring story — again, I don't know, I'm not Altice — but we've revisited them to make sure that the data isn't stale. But we've done the models too. Like, what should we be doing if we have a network that has lower capacity than what we want? Should we rebuild it with classic architecture, HFC architecture, which is a mix of fiber and cable, or all fiber to the home? And all fiber — we've been doing fiber for new build for like two decades. It's the way we build anything new. But if we're going to look at our existing networks, and this is a beautiful thing, we've built them years ago. We already had that there. Anything we do to that is going to cost us less than our competitors. We've looked at what DOCSIS 4.0 provides us. We've looked at what fiber provides us. And DOCSIS 4.0 has a more capital-efficient runway to get to essentially the same thing. I mean, we need reliability, redundancy, we need speeds, we need symmetricity, if that's even a word. And we get that with DOCSIS 4.0. So why would we spend more money? And by the way, again, we have investment companies that are fiber to the home, 100%. By the way, we have markets that are 100% fiber to the home too. So we know what it costs to operate them. We know what their trouble calls look like. We know what their churn looks like. And so if there was a better way of skinning a cat, we'd be doing it. And what we're doing is DOCSIS 4.0.
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Andrew Walker45:34
And I think a big misconception among probably generalists is, 'Oh, when you've got cable, that means the fiber runs to outside the city, and then you run HFC to every home for miles and miles and miles.' And you could correct me wrong, I know you guys said it at your investor day: you have fiber to within at most a few hundred feet of every home, and it's just the last 100, 200, maybe 300 feet that are getting HFC. So it's not like — you know, we call you cable, but you're more broadband and fiber if you actually think about it.
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Julia Laulis45:58
Yeah, we actually are. And the vast majority — over 90%, again, our CTO will be able to give you the exact number — of our data runs over fiber. Yesterday too, I noticed several fiber cuts. One was down south in Arizona, an operator that owns that fiber. The other one was through Windstream. So two operators, not us, supplying us with fiber to our market, and there were fiber cuts. Just because it's fiber doesn't mean that you're never going to see an issue. That isn't the case. If you're AT&T fiber, if you're Lumen fiber, if you're fill-in-the-blank fiber, your fiber is going to get cut just like anybody else's. Just saying that we're all constrained by the same real physical factors.
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Andrew Walker46:55
Yep. Let's switch to M&A and capital allocation. I don't want to go too crazy deep in here, but obviously you guys have a history of M&A. Multiples have come down a lot in the past 12 months. You guys have been very creative with the M&A, JVs, and everything. But you know, with multiples down in the past year, are you guys kind of seeing — and muscle's down, and I think a lot of smaller investor, smaller cable players starting to look and say, 'Hey, we've got to lay out some capital for a DOCSIS 4.0 upgrade.' Are you guys kind of starting to see the M&A environment pick up a little bit?
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Julia Laulis47:23
I don't know if I would say pick up. We definitely have had some of the smaller family-owned folks come to us and say, 'Uncle.' So we are looking at those right now. We believe that the melee that's going on with 'I'm going to build fiber, I'm going to build fixed wireless, I'm going to fill in the blank to get to consumers across America' is going to create opportunities for people who do know how to take care of customers. So we think that, over some sort of time horizon to be determined, we think more opportunities are going to come from that than not. But yes, there are smaller operators that are finding this market very hard to navigate through.
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Andrew Walker48:19
You mentioned Suddenlink earlier, and Altice obviously put Suddenlink up for sale. A lot of people have said Suddenlink looks a lot like Cable One. Did you guys take a look at Suddenlink?
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Julia Laulis48:30
Well, we got their book. But we quite honestly, those markets would have loved to have owned them when Altice got them. But at this point in time, quite honestly, it'd be easier for us to overbuild them than buy them and then put the capital into them. But they require — that's my opinion.
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Andrew Walker48:48
That makes total sense. So the other alternative to M&A is share buybacks. And you guys, I mean, I think the capital allocation here has been pretty outstanding. You know, you did the convert deal when the stock's at over $2,000. You guys — you know, look at Charter. Charter was a leverage here, but for sure they buy back the most of their shares when the stock's at 7 and 800, and they're not doing it when the stock's at 400. You guys, the stock goes under $1,000, you guys have gotten more and more aggressive. But I make sure just don't ask the other alternative — terminate is share buybacks and capital allocation. How are you thinking about that?
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Julia Laulis49:17
Yeah, you actually sound like Tom Gayner, who's our lead independent director and also CEO of Markel. Well, you know, the Markel days while we're talking. So yeah, he's like, 'Hey, you know, the price is high, we sell some stock. The price is low, we buy some stock.' We definitely think investing in ourselves at the price point that we are these days makes sense. You've seen us do it throughout '22. We still have authorization available to us. And I guess that's about all that I will guide to at this point in time.
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Narrator49:53
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Andrew Walker50:26
Like, as an investor, I mean, I think all the cable companies are trading under 7x EBITDA. What that is in free cash flow varies by leverage structure and how much they're putting into near-term capex. But you know, I kind of think if you're buying a cable company for sometimes even — there's not much better you can do with your capital, honestly.
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Julia Laulis50:44
Andrew, you couldn't build the network we have. The value — it's mind-boggling to me. My kid, what's in the ground and in the air is worth more. But the last I've looked — I mean, you guys do have the JV investments, which I don't want to get too hung up on the book value to the JV and everything — but the last time I looked, you guys are trading for like under $2.5k per home pass. It's like, 'Hey, you want to go do a rollover build?' You're talking — I mean, Charter's doing rollover, but this is probably more rural than you, but they're talking $4.5k for home pass. So you're buying this cash flow and cable company that's already got the customers for $2.5k per home pass. Like, you want to talk about buying more replacement cost?
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Andrew Walker51:28
Let's see, just a few questions to wrap this up. I realize we're — you've been generous with your time, and we're close to an hour. You know, I think one thing cable companies have said, you guys included, is our churn is low, our churn is at record lows. And one of the reasons we're not adding subs right now — yes, fixed wireless is probably taking particularly the people who used to come to DSL to cable. Fixed wireless is taking share. We're not getting our chance to add the movers. People are moving because moves are down. Everything. And I agree with all that. But I think a bear case a lot of people point out is, 'Hey, the cable companies have been saying this for a while, and broadband adds have gone negative for probably the first time ever in the back half of last year across the board. And B, if churn is so low, why aren't the cable companies not just disclosing churn like Frontier does it, and you can see their results? Why don't the cable companies just disclose it if there's nothing to hide?' So again, I've thrown four different thoughts out at you, but I'll just kind of turn it over to you.
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Julia Laulis52:15
You're taking notes. First off, on losses: the big folks started their losses in the second quarter. We lost for the first time that I can remember in the fourth quarter, and it was a very small loss. It was barely — it was like 2,000, if I remember correctly. It was less than 2,000. It was very heartfelt by our entire team. Net gain is a byproduct of connects minus churn, right? So you can see what our net gain is. The pieces and parts you might not get, but we talk about it. We say, 'Wow, our connects are really down.' And we believe that is a byproduct of the housing starts and the lack of moves. Right? You know, it's 7% now, 6.5% for a mortgage, so moves are down. Starts, housing starts, like new build, you know, folks are pulling back on doing construction is starting to slow. Now, it came to us more slowly than the big guys, and that's the way it always happens. Like, whatever happens in the NFL cities usually ends up coming to our markets but later, and we have time to see it and adjust. It also, I think, has to do with fixed wireless taking connects. I mean, fixed wireless is just like DSL. Where do we get most of our connects from? Either a DSL provider or potentially a competitor in the marketplace who isn't operating as well. So both of those things depressed our connects. But our connects are depressed in markets that don't have any fixed wireless access. So I believe that it is more a general environment. So that's just talking about what is going on. And I think — I can't speak for like Comcast and Charter — but at the beginning, they may have said that they felt like it was only the housing start issue, it wasn't fixed wireless. Well, it's really hard to measure something you're not getting, Andrew. Like, I mean, it's like a false negative. Like, 'Yep, this is slowed down,' and it takes a while to figure out what goes into that recipe, what is causing that. I mean, for us, we actually went in and changed our disconnect codes for our people so that we could track it. Like, 'Oh, there never was this thing before, now there is.' Instead of saying it's competition, we're going to know what kind of competition. So that, and we also now have a third-party company who's tracking that sort of movement for us. Now, coming to churn: I mean, I've seen cable churn used to be video. For us, since at least 2014, we only talk HSD. This is the lowest I've seen churn. And I'm talking about Cable One as a monolith. And we know that we have competition in about a third of our marketplaces. So even with competition likely driving higher churn in those markets than in others, our overall average churn is the lowest that I've ever seen it. Why don't we give it? You know, we're still relatively an immature public company. So I'm going to say, I'm sure I don't know all the ins and outs of what we should be disclosing and what we shouldn't. What I do know is that our peer companies don't. Yep, so we don't. And when I think about it at a deeper level, it's almost like the difference between a board director and management, same with investors and management. Like, do you want to run the business? Do you want to know every — do you want to know what our salary is for field tech? Do you want to know how much information do we need to give versus you're entrusting us to run the business? And the bottom line, which for us is free cash flow, is where you want it to be. That is what we are driving for. We are driving that free cash flow conversion. We're driving high return on invested capital. If those aren't the metrics that an investor cares about, we would want to hear about that. And by the way, we talk to them. I mean, I just went through our top 25 having conversations, and they might bring up things related to ESG, they might bring up things related to compensation. I mean, we listen to that, and we take their suggestions to heart. That quite honestly, you'll get to spare abuse, but I guess the question is how much do you need to disclose? Because once you do it, you're going to get doing it, and then be like, 'Okay, that's not enough. Now I want to know the churn by market. Now I want to know churn by voluntary versus involuntary.' Sure, but yeah, no, I certainly hear you, buddy. I'm not trying to hide it, but I'm telling you honestly, I think in most cases, like in the case of business solutions, there is no right or wrong, there's a whole continuum. But when it comes to morality and ethics, there is a right or wrong. I have no reason to lie about churn, because if I did it for a quarter, by the time you got to the next quarter or the quarter after, the numbers would show whether I was being truthful or not. So we have no reason to — no, look, I 100% agree with you. I just know it is like there are people who think cable is a terminal zero, everybody's going to be getting their internet from Starlink. I think if that happened, actually, there would be people getting like vaporized on the street by satellite rays. But, you know, there some of the bear cases have been, 'Hey, they're not disclosing churn, and maybe it was kind of astute, especially in like Q2 when Charter and Comcast were saying, 'No, fixed wireless isn't hurting us,' but we just lost subs. And like, it really went negative after that, and they were saying, 'You know, T-Mobile added 200,000 broadband fixed wireless subs, it was all bodegas on the corner or something.' You know, but I 100% hear you on that. It's just a frequent bear case. I think that Frontier needs to be disclosing that.
Yeah, let's just be real. And by the way, it's not really helping me to see what they're disclosing, because again, I can go to point broadband or I could go to Clearwave Fiber to see what their churn is vis-a-vis, and I can tell you very similar. Not head and shoulders above us at all. The other thing is, we have to be careful about the majority of our competitors are not public. I don't know if that's true — I should be careful about what I say. There are some competitors of ours that are not public, and so any way they can get information about us — and I mean, I'm very competitive, ask anyone who works with me — if they can find out information about us and we're making it easy, I don't like that. On the other hand, I do love the idea of being transparent with the people that put their money into our company. So if they want to know what's going on, here's what's going on: fixed wireless is taking some of our connects in certain mid-America, not West, where we have the majority of our customers, and moves and housing starts are down. Our churn is really low. Our job is to go get connects, and it's not to get connects at any price. It's not to go out there with a $10 per month home broadband internet. Yep, I mean, you see some of our peers saying, 'Oh, for $40 you can get a 300 meg internet and a cellular line.' Like, oh, I know what things cost. Not a lot of profit there. Yeah, I'm not going to do that. We're not going to do that. Now, we might do it, we might consider it for a test and try it out in a small area to see what it gets us. But ultimately, we have been very focused on cash flow and free cash flow, and not just units for unit's sake.
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Andrew Walker1:00:02
Yeah, I mean, look, every — this is a value investors podcast. Every investor is going to love to hear that. That's what people want to hear. And obviously, free cash flow can vary if you do a big capex bout out, but ultimately the bottom line is free cash flow per share over a long period of time. Just last thing on churn, and then we can wrap this up. I think it was the Q4 call, like I would kind of use that as the bottom line. You said, 'Every quarter, we hit a new record for churn low, and I think we can't go any lower.' And then the next quarter, we hit a new record for low churn. Is that kind of the right way to think about how you guys are seeing churn even in today's environment?
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Julia Laulis1:00:32
It is, which is really kind of amazing, because again, 65% no competition, but 35% does have competition. And in some of those markets, it means nothing. Like again, the one I told you about that's growing that has three — it's also in two other competitors — we're growing. I look at it, 'Oh, don't markets up again, that's great.' Some have people coming in, and when they first come in, there's a power grab, right? You lose the 10% of customers who, no matter what you do, you're never going to be good enough for them. Yep, even with that, our churn is really low. And it's actually — that might make our jobs harder, in that it is incumbent upon us to maintain the trust of the consumers that we are serving. I mean, our ambition is to be the most trusted broadband provider. And that means that we are there when they need us, that we respond quickly, that we treat them with empathy. And it is — maybe it's fun to do offers and go get customers, but keeping them over the long term, that's the really hard work. And that's the work that we are up for.
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Andrew Walker1:01:45
Perfect. Well, Julia, you've been super generous with your time. I think we'll go ahead and wrap it up here. Your 2022 investor day, I remember you said being on camera isn't your jam. I think you did a fantastic job. I really appreciate you coming on, and look forward to seeing you.
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Julia Laulis1:02:01
I said I love to fly below the radar. I mean, really, I love our people. Our people are our secret sauce, and they take care of our customers, and that's where I love spending my time. Of course, I speak to investors and banks and have fun with them too. But if I can do it while I'm not on camera, I think this is great. I look forward to seeing you at Markel Day in May, and we'll chat before then. I will see you in Richmond. Thanks so much. Have a great day.
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Andrew Walker1:02:31
A quick disclaimer: I do not have a position in Cable One stock.