Roddell Mccullough0:30
I think the confusion here is what we're talking bearish about is the economy, right? The stock market to me, I have two things: I have the economy, our economic models, and then I have our signals. And the signals, to your point, S&P 500 as a proxy for the stock market, isn't bearish. I don't think we've said that. For me as an investor, if I have a negative view on the economy based on our models, I'm probably just a little more conservative than I would be if we saw three Quad 1s. Maybe I'm more aggressive with the signals. So that's how I think about it. But to Marcus, I appreciate it. If all I said was I'm bearish, therefore the stock market, Hedgeye wouldn't exist. I wrote this morning: if you want to be a frogman of global macro, there's always a bull market somewhere: uranium, India, crypto, now healthcare stocks, utility stocks, insurance stocks. The market is not a stock. I never say the stock market; it's a market of sectors, stocks, styles. When you're bearish on the economy, you'll find a lot of those things go bullish. In Quad 4, let's show slide eight on the back test. This is not the portfolio I have on, but a stylized portfolio if everything was perfect and you had deflation as opposed to disinflation. From day one, I said when we have a bear market developing or an economic recession, separate the two things. Like Jonesy said, we're bearish on the economy but bullish on gold, bullish on fixed income, bearish on commodities. So when you say the stock market, Marcus, that doesn't mean anything to me. It's like going to a Navy SEAL at BUD/S training and asking, 'Are you hardcore on the market?' It's such a basic question. Being short commodities, if you had no stocks and didn't talk that way, we understand the question. We're long this one, bullish trend, long that one, this one is teetering. I'm going back to bullish trend. We're bearish on this one, not bearish on this one. Do I expect tech to completely implode at some point? Yeah, but right now I'm long XLK and long S&P momentum because the signal says to be long. I don't go to bed at night rationalizing why I'm among these two things in Quad 4 intellectually. I don't need to appeal to all the intellects who can't handle that I might have one boy and three girls instead of four boys. These things are bought until they are not, and once the signal changes, they will be gone. Five out of the seven stocks, if you pay for the momentum tracker or in the risk ranges, five of the seven are bullish. We're fundamentally bullish on Amazon; we told you to buy Amazon twice last week. That's a big part of yesterday's move because we're long Amazon. It's okay to be bullish on Amazon and not call it the stock market. Brian McGoff has 70 shorts against that long. I think 80 to 90% of Hedgeye nation is not confused by this, and my goal is to get the 10 or 20% to start to play the game like I play it. It's hard to be a player in the game. There's nobody coaching you out there. What's happening on CNBC is not coaching; that's a clown show. Having somebody real who's done it for 38 years, in my case a quarter century, to walk you through how I play the game is very difficult, but I'm getting less bad at it, and hopefully you can get less confused by it, because I don't think it's confusing at all.
