Chris Wilson Appears on FBN’s ‘Cavuto: Coast to Coast’

Well Vice President Pence kind of all riled up touting tax reform at CPAC. Of course it all sets the stage for how the Republicans are gonna frame the midterm election debate. Is the economy we know at their win? The winner GOP is back, but how much will that help them? Two GOP pollsters, Chris Wilson, Lee Carter, and Real Clear Politics national political reporter Katelyn Huy Byrnes. Okay, let me start with you because Real Clear Politics have this poll out this week and a generic midterm thing, and it's clear the Republicans are making a move, and it feels like what's powering that move is a greater enthusiasm about these tax cuts, right?

Exactly. Republicans have been trying to make the case and they've been spending a lot of money out there trying to make this legislation more popular, and they've been pointing to instances where people have been seeing an actual increase either through their own companies or elsewhere, and so you're seeing the numbers improve on that. I've also been talking to Democrats who say that they have lost ground to Republicans over the past few months because they haven't been focused specifically on the economy and economic messaging. So Republicans certainly think that the economy will be their calling card in this midterm and they're going to point to this recent data. They also are concerned though about other things getting in the way of the messaging, particularly coming from the president, right?

Yeah, you know, Gallup actually has a poll out too, and US satisfaction with our place in the world is as high as it's been in over a decade, but by the same poll though, only 25% are excited about President Trump's place in the world. So those two things have always been conflicting since he took office.

That's right. I mean, I think that what we have to understand is that the president came to power not necessarily because of his popularity, but because of the unpopularity of the establishment. People said, 'I want something different. I want someone who's to keep his word,' and they were willing to sacrifice some things that they typically would go for in order to have this kind of a president. They knew that he was crass, they knew that he uses tweets in some ways that offends people, they knew all of these things, but they said, 'Look, we need someone who's going to keep his word.' And the president has kept his word, and that's why you hear the vice president saying things like 'promises made, promises kept,' and the American people are feeling me. I will say one thing: out in New York, it is not crass, it's just New York honesty.

You know, Chris, promises made, promises kept. The Supreme Court justice, in fact, I think there was one piece that compared President Trump's first year to Ronald Reagan's and he actually ranked more conservative. But to win me, independents, I feel like it's going to be the economy. The economy is firing on all cylinders. I thought it was interesting how Caitlyn talked about how much money Republicans have to spend to convince people that they have more money in their pocket. That's a good thing that would seem like a natural, but that tells you that this will be an uphill climb still for the Republicans.

Well, yeah, well there's no question about that. I mean, what's driving the rebounding of Republican numbers that was just mentioned is the economy. It's the tax cuts, and that's become even more clear as those tax cuts become more into place and after April 15th. But as you mentioned, the challenge here is really independents. I mean, Democrats don't like Donald Trump; it's very rare for a president with this kind of economy to be this unpopular outside of wartime. So that being the case, it really is incumbent upon Republicans to make sure that they are motivating their base, and that's the key factor of 2018. Republicans to win, they've got to get Donald Trump and Mike Pence and other popular figures – Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio – out in the field campaigning and getting Republicans excited, because without that, you're gonna see the same sort of thing happen that we've seen in special elections where Democrat turnout surged. We've seen it in Texas; we're still early, but early voting started, Democrat turnout is up. So it's really incumbent upon Republicans to get their base motivated and get them turned out in 2018. The party that's out of favor is always usually has the most motivation right, I mean that's historic, and we always see typically midterm losses. Ladies, so the question is, these other topics, you know, this weekend for the rest of the year – school safety, taking care of our children, guns, the MeToo movement – all of these things are playing a role that makes this a little bit different, right? The handicap as opposed to other years when you would just mostly say it is the economy, right?

Right, and you know there are a lot of different issues, and the thing that we've seen over these special elections, over these off-year elections, is that Republicans are meeting their target numbers, but Democrats are over performing their numbers. And there's this concern among Republicans about being caught off guard in some of these areas. We saw a special election for a Florida state legislature seat last week. Those kinds of things Republicans I've talked to say that they are prepared for this environment, that they know the headwinds are facing them because midterms are typically a referendum on the president and the party in power. Democrats I talked to also say that they have a lot of work to do in terms of keeping on the economic message. We don't have a message though, I mean if Nancy Pelosi keeps calling these cuts 'crumbs,' that's not necessarily dissing regular folks who were thrilled to get $2,000. You've seen this divide in the party. You've seen some, you know, think that she'll be a liability. Republicans I've been talking to think that she will be a top liability for Democrats running next year, this year especially since Democrats will be pointing to Donald Trump as the...

Let me also ask you then, all these Republicans not running for office again. I mean a lot of you know some of them, their chairmanship ran out, you know they're maybe a little bit spoiled sport, they're doing take the ball and walk away with it. But I think we're over 40 right who have chosen not to run or they're gonna run for different office whatever it is. That's a huge void that you have to reintroduce a new candidate, find ways of raising money for that new candidate, and this sort of environment makes it a lot tougher, doesn't it?

It could make it a lot more difficult, but I think the thing that we're seeing right now is that there's a trend to non-traditional candidates. There's a trend to people looking for different solutions, different ways of doing things, and saying, 'Let the way that we've been doing things in DC is broken. Drain the swamp. Let's bring in new candidates.' So to the extent that the Republican Party can play on that and say, 'We've heard you, that's what you want. We're bringing a whole new crop of people,' and that's going to meet these needs, it's gonna you know keep their word, that's going to keep their promises. I think that's gonna give them a good chance. I also think that this is a non-traditional time in general, so that anything that we say has happened before is likely to happen again? I'm not so sure that's true.

Right. And Chris, I think Vice President Pence sort of touched on that earlier this morning when he talked about 2016, you know sort of how he threw out the book if you will on how to run for office, and they're gonna do the same thing with this midterm as well. Chris, I'm sorry, yeah, he repeated or sort of alluded to the fact that the Republican Party is going to approach the midterms in an unorthodox fashion the same way they did 2016.

Yeah, I think that would be a mistake. I mean, you can't run another campaign like 2016 was run. Hey, Donald Trump is a unique candidate and he ran a unique campaign. And I think it's uncommon to ride a lot of the votes for Donald Trump or against Hillary Clinton or against the way things have been done. And the fact is, Republicans have recruited a lot of non-traditional candidates, but really the key aspect is getting back to off-year elections is about base. And the Democrat base is motivated. Republicans have got to motivate their base. They do it through issues, they do it through events, they do it through popular candidates getting popular figures out in the field. And Donald Trump is popular with Republican base. The more that he gets out, the more you can motivate Republicans, the bigger difference we'll have. But really what it gets down to is the fact that every Republican candidate needs to know exactly who his turnout targets are. Who is it that voted in 2016, maybe voted in 2014, but right now doesn't plan to vote in 2018? They need to get to know those people on a personal basis to get them out to vote, or it's gonna be a bad election for Republicans.

Exactly right. We Republicans typically the party in power losses in off years, but you can that stem that tide. Lee, sounds like a good old-fashioned you know hitting the bricks, you know rolling up the sleeve and kissing a lot of babies. It sounds like that.

But I think we're gonna have more grassroots and more movements that are happening towards this. I do think this is a very different time than we've seen before. I do think that the Republicans are probably gonna lose some seats, but probably not as many as people are predicting because they lose control of the House. I don't think they are gonna lose control of the House. I think right now the Republicans have a very solid Pro-America, Pro hard-working American message, and that's one that's working. It's working with independents. And if you can keep those independents – that's a 12% swing that we've been seeing in popularity – if the Republicans can keep those folks, I think they're going to keep a lot of seats. I think it's also important to note that the map on the House side is very different from the map on the Senate side. So there are a lot of liabilities for Republicans on the House side because they're competing in California, New Jersey, and other places that Hillary Clinton won. But also on the Senate side, you have a lot of Democrats up for reelection in states that Trump won overwhelmingly, and you're seeing Republicans start to fill in poverty and start to target them.

Sorry guys, thank you all very much. It's going to be a nail-biter no matter what.