Steve Jurvetson1:09:22
Well, there's a big architectural gap still to fill. Some people might hear the question or hear the term and think, oh, it's like a human, meaning it's going through the world with agency and purpose. It is making decisions and doing its own thing, if you will. That is, and I don't think they have a good term for that, like super autonomous or sentience or something like the artificial. So if you just say, will an AI system like the GPTs and the XAIs of the world of today as a framework outperform a human on any question or task that you present it? Absolutely. I mean, that happens quickly. Is it a year or two? And oh, by the way, when that happens, just give it another year and it'll be much greater than a human. So the difference between Einstein and one of the less capable humans on planet earth is not that big a gap versus humans and pigs and lesser animals. On the scheme of things, those two humans on an intelligence spectrum of AI's trajectory is like going from one human to a collection of humans applying their intelligence collectively in a group kind of setting, because otherwise it doesn't really matter how many humans we have on earth. If they're not acting in coherence as a team, if it was twice as many or half as many, doesn't matter. What matters is, are you a thousand times as smart as any human has been? That comes quickly after even simply Moore's law. And in AI, we've had Moore's law doubling every year and algorithmic improvements of a doubling every year for like 15 years now, which is kind of astounding. That makes a big difference. So I think those come quickly. Some of the evidence of that—these models today already outperform humans at almost any task you apply them towards with a little bit of specialized training. There hasn't been a domain where you're like, oh, we can't do that. I'll give an example: medicine. I was just at Stanford last week getting the update on the state-of-the-art of large language models for healthcare. The humiliating and humbling takeaway in short is that the AI alone is much better than a human, of course. And it is much better than a human using the AI. In other words, take your best doctor in a field of medicine, reading an X-ray, doing whatever, they're on a certain talent level. If they start using AI, they get a little bit better. But if they just let the AI run without the human in the loop, it does better still by far—off the charts. So the point is the humans are just holding it back. Then the next one is not just diagnosis, but the course of therapy. What should we do given what we just learned? They also outperformed there. And then best of all, blow the doors off the human on empathy as reported by the patient. So if you have a chat interface where the doctor is talking to the patient through that same interface or an AI, the AI blows the doors off on truly understanding me, conveying the situation, and understanding on some really tough issues like end-of-life care for a parent—do you pull the plug or do you not? Really tough conversations. They blow the doors off humans. So we're already there. And Elon would talk about a number of PhD-level equivalents for all the PhDs. The challenge then is going to be, you alluded to this earlier on emotional response. We talked about limbic systems and what have you earlier in our conversation. There's still something missing about obviously these systems aren't just going off and doing interesting work. Now the agentic chain of reasoning is starting down this path of, say, I have a task I want you to do. Can you find me the best vacation plan? And reaching out to all these different websites and figuring out where are the flights and the hotel and the things I might do for kids of this age, and pulling it all together with a series of steps. Same thing in agentic flows in programming as well, if you're doing coding. But there's something different still from that sort of spark of consciousness or sentience, which is perhaps going to require some other—it could be an emerging property, by the way, of forecasting the future. So let me share a bizarre thought. I alluded to this earlier that what our brain naturally is doing is predicting the future, and only when what we sense is different do we perceive it in any sense. Like if I grab this thing and it's much hotter or colder than I could possibly imagine, I'll notice that. Otherwise I won't even notice temperature. It won't register. Because I'm working off predictions. In fact, they've done free will studies, if you will, that we retrospectively rationalize what we just did. Confirmation bias, all kinds of bias, but at a very low level, at the microsecond level, that I just did move this finger and then I was like, I intended to move this finger. Perhaps that's what's going to happen with our artificial systems as well with next token prediction. They'll be like, how am I retrospectively making sense of what I've done? And there could be some vote-taking circuits that we built. We might have to build some circuitry for this—some vote-taking circuitry that's in the feedback loop of what we retain is novel, that will then bootstrap this sort of consciousness or intelligence. The perception of free will, the perception of consciousness, might be a phenomenon of that. There are others who think we need to take a neuro-symbolic approach, that we need to literally recapitulate these lower-level primitive systems that are emotive and what have you, to actually have an emotion as opposed to faking it. Well, I don't know the answer, but I do think we can do a lot more experiments now than ever before. We can run these evolutionary sort of feedback loops in ways that will potentially bootstrap intelligence. And it might come from some heterogeneity. It might come from just the sheer approach that we're taking. But it's not obvious that we're there now. That what we've built isn't like a baby version of, oh, it'll just naturally be self-directed. That takes a different bootstrap from the current vectors that are there. So I think what we have is a hyper-intelligent adjunct or colleague, kind of like C-3PO if you will—way too smart for its own good, chattering on when you don't want it to chatter on, but it can do a lot of things for you. It can do a lot of things, but it can't beat Darth Vader.