President, JPMorgan Chase
Global Markets, Local Opportunities
JPMorgan Chase Vice Chairman Daniel Pinto shares insights on global capital flows and Africa's role in emerging markets with ...
About Daniel Pinto
Daniel Pinto, President of JPMorgan Chase, has been discussing the outlook for the U.S. economy, credit markets, and artificial intelligence (AI) valuations. In November 2025, speaking at the Bloomberg Africa Business Summit, Pinto stated that while the U.S. economy is likely to slow down, he does not expect a recession. He noted that inflation remains resilient and that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates. Regarding AI, Pinto said that while JPMorgan is deploying large language models across its workforce to improve productivity, the technology is still in its early stages. He warned that the amount of capacity being created by AI companies may not be matched by revenue, stating, "It's likely... there is probably a correction there," which he said could also affect the broader S&P 500 and other industries. Pinto has also commented on private credit, expressing concern about direct lending to small businesses, an area he said "hasn't been tested through a downturn cycle." He described the U.S. economy as being in a "good place" but noted that inflation and geopolitics could derail optimism. Pinto is transitioning from his day-to-day role at JPMorgan, having been with the company for 43 years, and has said he will continue to advise CEO Jamie Dimon and the board on strategic issues. He has also expressed a positive view on Africa, noting JPMorgan's expanding presence in the region, and commented on Argentina's economic reforms under President Javier Milei, stating that while the economic front has improved, the political challenge of creating alliances for structural reforms remains.
Transcript (27 segments)
I
Interviewer0:09
Daniel, thank you so much for joining us here on Pleasure. Jamie Diamond was in Africa a year ago, said he's, quote, quite optimistic about the future. We've heard that before, of course, but a lot has changed in the past year. What's the House view now on Africa and opportunities?
D
Daniel Pinto0:30
So we are very positive about Africa. We have a presence in sub-Saharan Africa in five places, including now a new office in Kenya, in Ivory Coast. We are upgrading our license in Nigeria. We are bringing Johannesburg and Cape Town here. We cover around 350 clients, both sovereign enterprises and private sector. So I think that this may be the time. I like what we are seeing in this country and in other countries in the region. I think that the redirection of the supply chains may be beneficial for this continent. So we will continue prudently, but invest. These are economies that South Africa is turning around, but also that economies are growing faster. So I think that there is a role for a company like us gradually and prudently increase our presence and our coverage in the region.
I
Interviewer1:38
As you mentioned, I mean, Standard & Poor's has upgraded South Africa. Do you see further upgrades coming?
D
Daniel Pinto1:47
Well, it all will depend. I think that this government has done very good things in terms of the reforms on the energy and power sector, the opening of the transportation system and reform that the water reform that is coming. So hopefully all these turn the dynamics of growth and move South Africa to a level of growth that is more in line with a potential of three, four or 5% rather than 1%. And I know that tariffs have been a bit of a headwind, but overall, after ten years of the economy really stagnating, having even negative productivity, the country looks to have turned the corner and the potential is there.
I
Interviewer2:42
Some complaints in parts of the market that Africa still pays a prejudiced premium when the countries issue sovereign bonds. I mean, I think Africa Finance Corp, the Development bank, estimates that the continent spends as much as $75 billion a year on extra borrowing costs. Where do you stand in that debate?
D
Daniel Pinto3:06
Well, markets are relatively efficient on pricing the risk. So unfortunately, when you look at the dynamics in the continent, they may improve, but at the moment, that is maybe justified. So I think that over time, as the region improves, if the governance improves, corruption hopefully goes on, there are structural reforms, all the things take place, then spreads will tighten and that will be in line with better growth and better future for the region. But at the moment it is what it is.
I
Interviewer3:48
In terms of sectors, I mean, which sectors look interesting to you? Is it energy? Is it infrastructure, fintech, consumer? Where would you put your money?
D
Daniel Pinto3:58
Well, all of the above. Very clearly, energy is transforming and requires a lot of capital to continue to do so. Infrastructure, transport, ports, airports, all those areas need investment and it will create opportunity. Clearly, this continent has roughly a billion and a half people growing very, very fast. So the consumer industry should be a thriving industry for the continent. So all across, hopefully all these potential gains gradually materialize and the size of the business that we do goes more in line with the size of the continent, because at the moment it is relatively small but growing.
I
Interviewer4:46
We put out a story the other day highlighting that Africa needs to create 2 billion jobs by the end of the century to fulfill its potential. What do governments have to do and what are they not doing at the moment, or the companies doing or not doing to actually deliver on that?
D
Daniel Pinto5:03
Well, it's about what we have talked about. This country, 40 plus percent unemployment, big informal economy, 60% youth unemployment. Therefore, that is kind of the phrase for a higher level of crime and all of that. So as you continue reform in these countries, then the creation of jobs will be necessary and they will happen. The size of the informal economy will be smaller as labor laws and other reforms take place. So likewise, you do all that so that everything improves. But they have to really do it in order for that to happen. You cannot continue with these numbers, sixties and forties in unemployment and things like that. So I think that the government is doing all the right things in this country and hopefully that continues and gets deeper. So then you have a better situation for the people in the country.
I
Interviewer6:09
Relations between Washington and Africa aren't the best at the moment. You have accusations of genocide here. You have the Trump administration complaining about Nigeria not doing enough for Christians. Do you think this is sort of a short term blip that's going to normalize at some point? Or is there something fundamentally at risk in the current sort of frosty environment?
D
Daniel Pinto6:32
I think that the situation with tariffs and relations between the U.S. and many countries, all regions around the world at some point is going to stabilize. Tariffs will be set a certain level. Trade agreements will be in place. So therefore, it's likely to improve rather than deteriorate, in my view.
I
Interviewer6:55
You followed, obviously, and run businesses in emerging markets for a very long time. I'd like to zoom out a little bit and look beyond Africa. What's the state of emerging markets overall?
D
Daniel Pinto7:07
Well, I think that the fundamentals are good. These countries are growing. Lower interest rates are helpful. The weaker dollar in some way or the other helps, too. And clearly, when you look at markets, emerging markets underperformed for many, many years. This year is probably the best performing, including this country, where the equity market is up 40% and in dollar terms around 50% or more. So I think that they are doing fine, including hopefully my country.
I
Interviewer7:49
You took my next question. You grew up in Argentina. Obviously, there was a little bit of a wobble in the markets the other day, but generally, do you think Milei is on the right track?
D
Daniel Pinto8:04
So when he came to power, the country was heading to a real meltdown, hyperinflation, all these type of things. And Argentina, from being probably the fifth or sixth biggest nation in the world after the Second World War, has been deteriorating for a good part of 80 to 100 years. So he on the economic front did all the right things to cut the deficit, lower inflation with a lot of pain from the population, but hopefully creating the base for growth. Now, we have done very well in the mid-term election, but he doesn't have a majority. So the challenge from here is more on the political front: can he create the right alliances to do the structural reforms that are needed for the country to grow faster, which is essentially labor reform, tax reform? If that happens, I think that there is a lot of investment wanting to come to Argentina, particularly in mining, energy, and the agricultural sector, so agro industry. So I think that the potential is there, and if this model is successful, then you could see the possibilities of the rest of the region move in a different place and in a better place. Clearly, he has aligned himself with the United States and hopefully the rest of the region, and that's important too, because when you think about the tension between China and the United States, it should be very beneficial for Latin America, for Mexico and the rest of the country. So hopefully that happens.
I
Interviewer9:56
When you look beyond 2025 and into 2026, you seem to be quite optimistic. I mean, Jamie Diamond mentioned cockroaches the other day, which was sort of a quote that went viral. You see cockroaches around here?
D
Daniel Pinto10:11
I think they're gone. The comment was taken out of context, in my view. So it may be other cases of fraud, maybe. We don't know. Possible. Clearly, in the auto financing sector, subprime financing with used car prices after the COVID crisis has been so high, if you are lending to low incomes, you're going to have some issues. And in these cases that they are related to, from what we are now seeing, is a deterioration but more respected in the credit cycle in any of the portfolio. So I think that credit remains solid on credit cards in the U.S. all the way to the corporates. But we will see how it plays out and continues once the economy slows down. I don't think that the economy will go into recession; it is likely to slow down and the credit cycle will continue to normalize. But I don't think that in the credit cycle we see other direction beyond what we were expecting if the economy slows down.
I
Interviewer11:26
Where do you stand on the interest rate debate in America at the moment? Do you think the Fed is going to cut again in December or hold off?
D
Daniel Pinto11:33
I think that maybe inflation is being quite resilient. Growth is slowing down. But still this quarter, I think, though, we should discount the numbers, whatever they can, because of the shutdown, that it will recover. Whatever it is, it will recover in the next quarter, in the first quarter of next year. So we do see some reduction in consumption, but still at healthy levels. So I think that the economy may grow less next year, but most likely it will avoid recession. Tariffs haven't had the full impact, but something will have a further impact next year, but also some will be compensated by the fiscal expansion. So relatively positive on what we are seeing. Having said that, markets are priced in a very, very benign scenario and quite a bit more. I don't know where they may be a year from now, but the S&P at 6700, 23 times earnings, is quite healthy to say that you're not giving up.
I
Interviewer12:47
Give us a new S&P target.
D
Daniel Pinto12:52
Well, whoever was giving targets means that. So no, but I think that from here you will see that the upside is relatively limited. Obviously, no on-stage interview these days can exclude AI. So here's the question: where do you stand on the continuum of hype bubble, and it's going to solve everything?
I
Interviewer13:17
Well, the technology is real, and even though we've been dealing with traditional AI for the last ten years, we are now working in large language models and we deploy that to almost every employee that we have. We are using different forms of this to improve productivity across operations, technology, detecting fraud in surveillance, credit decisioning, improving client experience. It's all over the place. So it is still at a very early stage. Large language models are still not having the impact that they should have, and we're still very, very early in the AI journey. Clearly this will have an impact in the labor market. Some jobs will be created and some jobs will be eliminated. But I think that one thing to keep an eye on is how much capacity is being created, how much revenues these companies are going to get to pay for that capacity. It is likely, I don't know the probabilities, but it is possible that there is a correction there, and that correction will also create a correction in the rest of the segments, in the S&P and in the industry, because to justify these valuations, you are considering a level of productivity that it will happen, but it may not be as fast as the market is pricing now.
You step down from your day-to-day job in June. You have a farewell tour similar to the WHO till the end of next year. You were obviously far too young to retire. So what's next for Daniel?
D
Daniel Pinto15:19
Hey, I've been in the company for 43 years and it was an amazing journey, really working with Jamie in transforming the company and contributing to the success that we have. From here, clearly, I don't want any other operating jobs. I'm already on the board of Johnson & Johnson. I think that is a fascinating industry and I want to continue learning, learn about other industries, be on top of innovation, understand what could be the impact of AI in different sectors and in society. So I want to take a slower pace, but continue to learn and explore other sectors and other avenues. And golf will play a part.
I
Interviewer16:21
I would play a video call, but no, not all that. Well, our clock here says we're out of time. So thank you so much.
D
Daniel Pinto16:27
Thank you.