Dr. Lee Su-jin (co-author, 2023 Consumer Trend Insights)

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It's that time of the year again when reports and books pour out forecasting what will be trending in the New Year. While many are painting a grim picture for next year's economy, a continuation of what has been happening during the pandemic, will we be able to thrust forward beyond the limitations that seem to be posed by the economic woes? For some insight, it's an annual thing now. We connect with Dr. E, the co-author of 2023 Consumer Trend Insights and a research fellow at Consumer Trend Center at Seoul National University. It's been a year. Good morning. Good morning. How have you been?

I've been great, and I'm trying to process that a whole year has passed and we're doing this dance all over again.

Same here. Too. All right. I'm sure our listeners already know about the book Consumer Trend Insights. We talked about it last year around this time. You're one of the co-authors. Could you first give a general introduction to this year's edition with the acronym RABBIT Jump?

Yes. This year we stand for the RABBIT Jump. Like, COVID-19 has been really shaking our lives over the past three years and is still ongoing. And even worse, the economy is entering a recession period. According to various economic indicators such as stock prices or economic survey index, the global economy appears to have entered a phase of slowdown or stagnation, which means it is very difficult for us or the economy to improve throughout 2023. As is our tradition, we use the Chinese zodiac. Next year is the Black Rabbit, and the rabbit often appears as a symbol of wisdom. So we hope that 2023 will be the year in which we can leap forward by borrowing the wisdom of the rabbits. So this year we used the headline for this book expressed as RABBIT Jump, and each alphabet is abbreviated to explain the 10 consumption trend keywords in 2023. Some keywords are about the changes in Korean society direction and the market changes due to the recession that I mentioned, like reduction of average, or Cherry Shumer, or new demand strategy. Others are about changes in values due to the emergence of new generations, like Office Big Bang and index relationships, digging momentum, Neverland Syndrome, and Alpha generation. And lastly, some are about changes in retail and space according to technology progress, like proactive technology and spatial power. Those are the 10 keywords that we made for this year.

We may need more than one conversation to cover all bases, but refer to the books. We just want to do a reader's digest version today, an introduction into the acronym RABBIT Jump. I haven't even gotten used to Gen Z. We're moving on to the Alpha generation, it seems. For those of you who are not keeping up, 2010 and later. In the prologue of this next year's Consumer Trend Insights, the book reads that the year 2023 is approaching amid bleak global economic outlook, as you've said. It seems it's natural for us to draw comparisons from the 2008 financial crisis. So what notable changes are expected and what will likely stay the same?

I think this question is very important. There is a certain pattern in consumption during recessions. Obviously, consumer spending decreases and the demand for cheaper prices or goods of a certain type increases. Even in 2008 at the time of the financial crisis, 'reasonable' was the main keyword. In 2008, Zara, the fashion brand with reasonable prices, entered the domestic market, as well as UNIQLO, and they showed really explosive good sales growth around that time. As the middle of 2022 passes, the social situation these days is similar to that time, and consumption patterns that emphasize rationality, so-called cost-effectiveness consumption—in Korea we could say 'KongB'—become more prominent. Some consumers are acting like... have you ever heard about the no-spending challenges?

Oh yeah, I've heard. I haven't implemented it.

Oh really? Oh, you did? No, no. I've heard about it, but I realized how unrealistic it is for me to spend that little, so I didn't even try. But I understand the sentiment, because the cost of living is expensive. If food is more expensive, we had that supermarket fried chicken that was really affordable, right? That might be part of the trend you just mentioned. And some consumers are cooking at home rather than using delivery services. Those are other patterns as well. I think these consumption trends show the typical patterns of consumption during the recession. However, it is very important that the meaning of cost-effectiveness that people are looking for these days has really changed. In the past, it meant compromising with reasonable price or performance. But these days, cost-effectiveness means focusing on maximizing cost efficiency. If you have to spend money anyway, you have to enjoy the best satisfaction with just one rather than having several mediocre products. For example, if you spend three hours on a drama you really want to watch, on the other hand, if you enjoy three-minute summary contents, you can just understand the plot of popular contents. In that case, we could say you've enjoyed it properly as a cost-effective way. So to sum up, I think cost-effectiveness can be said to be a strategic intensive consumption rather than alternative choice. I think that has really changed.

That's a pretty big shift if you think about it. And it leads us into, I think, a related third question of the day: the redistribution of average. This is tricky because this is how I believe marketers, advertisers, and everyone else involved in those industries would gear to a target audience. The average should be the target. But if it is in fact divided and the average ceases to exist, it suggests that customized, tailored, narrowed-down targets is probably a better approach. Can you maybe care to elaborate what this change indicates?

I think you've got a point very well. The most remarkable change in our society recently is that the typical is disappearing. As we think about the average, the premise of distribution as a gentle bell shape, with the largest number around the average in the middle and decreasing frequency as one moves away from the center. If you fit in this average world, we could survive or secure our normal life. However, recently this concept is vanishing, and there are three patterns related to reduction of average: polarization, multipolarization, and monopolization. First, polarization, which is a well-known concept. In times of recession, people look for ultra-cheap products but also ultra-high-priced luxury goods, and they tend to glow along with them. Secondly, I want to talk about multipolarization, which is very important to the business area. Just as everyone's tastes have diversified, existing patterns changed. Previously, whiskey was mainly reserved for some people of high age or high income, but it has really changed. Among 20s and 30s, consumers are really enjoying whiskey easily these days, and that has been a big change. Lastly, I want to tell about monopolization, and it's very easily found in the platform economy. For example, in the case of KakaoTalk, which started service in 2010, it is the most frequently used app by Koreans and is unmatched in the related market. I think we have to elaborate more carefully about the average in this era, and special measures are desperately needed to meet diverse consumer needs.

You're absolutely right because if you look at consumer spending, generally decreasing spending in times of financial crisis, and you turn to the whiskey market and the wine market, things look bleakly different. It's confusing, but it is that very difference that we ought to pinpoint. In Consumer Trend Insights 2023, speaking of which, you mentioned some of the acronyms including but not limited to the Office Big Bang, referring to perhaps Great Resignation and its effects, Cherry Shumers—I always thought cherry picker had a bad reputation, but this is kind of a positive spin—Peter Pan and the Neverland Syndrome. Can you walk us through some of these keywords you find to be the most important?

I think you've caught all very well. I read the book. Thank you. I want to tell about some keywords that I think are important. Recently, home, workplace, and market have been changed because of the emergence of a new generation, referred to as MZ (Millennials and Gen Z). This new generation brings a lot of changes in elements of our society. The keywords you mentioned are especially affected by these consumers. First, Cherry Shumer. In the past, consumers who deliberately picked the benefits of a membership but did not make a purchase were called 'cherry pickers.' Now we would like to call consumers who pursue extremely rational consumption 'Cherry Shumer.' Cherry picker had a slightly negative connotation, but Cherry Shumer has a neutral meaning. For instance, the free gifts given when buying cosmetics have also really changed. If it's not simply for trials, it's also made for being used in small quantities. Some brands sell products for giveaways nicely wrapped and separately these days. That is a very good example of Cherry Shumer. For the next, Office Big Bang: the workplace is where the realization is most evident these days. As you said, the Great Resignation and the overwork culture of Korea have also changed very significantly. So the Office Big Bang in the sense that this culture, maintained ever since industrialization, is rapidly changing at the level of a Big Bang. This phenomenon is not only discussed in terms of the recent increase in turnover but also explores the causes of change in the sense of belonging. We have to seek practical ways to attract and retain good talent. And lastly, I think the most important part is that this young way of thinking is not exclusive to the young generation only. It's a problem for all predecessors like Gen X, Baby Boomers. Rejuvenation has become the greatest virtue and direction. Like Neverland, Peter Pan and his friends who never grew old and remained children, I think Koreans are admiring the Neverland Syndrome. They really want to remain young. This is not just about plastic surgery or beauty to look young, it is about youthful thinking or being revealed throughout the way of thinking and values. I think it is more important to look at these trends thoroughly, both positive and negative aspects together. Thank you very much.

You had to summarize an entire book for us, but thank you for the conversation starter. We'll let you go. I understand you're in a rush this morning. Thank you so much, Dr. E. We'll speak to you again next year.

Thank you for calling me again.

All right. Now we spoke to Dr. Errin this morning. She is the co-author of the 2023 Consumer Trend Insights and a research fellow at the Consumer Trend Center at Seoul National University. Maybe you can pick up one of our books: Consumer Trend Insights 2023, and it will go into details of what RABBIT Jump stands for. We talk about the state of the economy all the time without providing a solution as to how to prepare yourself. This might be it. It takes wisdom and grace to weather difficulties during tough economic times. If you're listening to our program using the podcast service, just a reminder that we go live Monday through Friday at 7 a.m. Korea Standard Time, so tune in and help us make the show more informative by giving us your input. See you at the early morning. Good morning, Seoul.