Steven Quirk

Chief Brokerage Officer, Robinhood Markets

From Meme Stocks to Event Contracts: What's In Store For $HOOD In '26 with Steph Guild & Steve Quirk

🎥 Dec 23, 2025 📺 RiskReversal Media ⏱ 70m 👁 1094 views

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami host Steph Guild, Chief Investment Officer at Robinhood. Steph discusses her 2026 market outlook, reflecting on tech sector growth, AI developments, and S&P 500 predictions. She emphasizes her cautious approach for the coming year, focusing on diversification and value investing. After the break, Steve Quirk, Chief Brokerage Officer at Robinhood joins the pod. Steve talks about Robinhood's latest offerings, including prediction markets and event contracts, highlighting their rapid growth and retail investor interest. The episode also explores new AI tools like Cortex f...

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About Steven Quirk

In recent appearances, Steve Quirk, Chief Brokerage Officer at Robinhood Markets, discussed the evolution of retail options trading and defended the role of retail investors in financial markets. During an interview at the 2026 Options Industry Conference, Quirk addressed the expansion of trading hours, stating that customers view electronic platforms like "Amazon" and question why they would ever close, noting that many liquidity providers already trade other asset classes around the clock. He also expressed that while he had reservations about single-stock daily expirations due to the expiration risk brokers bear, he acknowledged that technology has helped Robinhood avoid issues with their rollout, and he described such products as "precise instruments" for customers who want to protect positions on specific dates. In a separate interview, Quirk discussed retail investor behavior, stating he has long sought to "dispel this notion that retail buys the top and sells the bottom." He noted that Robinhood created an index tracking the top 100 stocks held by its customers, which he said outperformed broad-based indices in two of the last three years. Quirk also commented on the criticism that "80% of options expire worthless," arguing that the statistic assumes buyers of options, while he noted that sellers of options benefit from expiration. He added that while buying out-of-the-money calls can be appealing to new traders due to the risk-reward ratio, he does not consider it a viable long-term strategy if it is the sole approach.

Source: AI-verified profile updated from Steven Quirk's recent appearances. Browse all interviews →

Transcript (94 segments)

Steph Guild0:00

Our retail customers did what they did in 2020. They stepped in and they were kind of aggressive in buying the dip and they were handsomely rewarded. When we talk to the media because they always reach out to us in times of volatility and say, 'Oh my gosh, what are the we're the face of retail customers.' Oh, doesn't that scare you that they're buying the dip? And my response is they're 30 years old. They should be buying the dip. They should be super aggressive at this age because they have 40 more years of investing. And if I look at historical returns, let's call it 9%. Sure, they might have 5 years where they don't make any money, but in the long run, it's the right thing to do.

Dan Nathan0:40

Welcome to the Risk Reversal Podcast. I am Dan Nathan. That is Guy Adami. Guy, we have a very special guest. We've gotten to know Steph over the last I want to say couple of years. She is the CIO. That's Steph Guild at Robinhood. You run Robinhood Strategies. You are a strategist. You've been very helpful to us figuring out the markets over the last year and a half or so. So Steph, thanks for being back at the podcast.

Steph Guild1:05

Thank you for having me. I always enjoy.

Dan Nathan1:06

And before we get granular here and her work, let me say this. This is someone whose star is clearly on the rise because I see more and more of her on the different outlets. And you know what? They're smart to put her on.

Guy Adami1:20

See that? We can be complimentary coming from Guy.

Dan Nathan1:25

But by the way, this is a really interesting podcast because not only are we going to get Steph and her outlook for 2026, we're going to look back on some 2025 stuff, some of the things themes that she thinks are very important, how they are allocating resources in our own strategies, but also after the break when we're done with this, we have Steve Quirk. Steve Quirk, as we just call him what Guy?

Guy Adami1:46

Dan Nathan1:46

He's just Q. I mean, he's a lot more than just Q, but we just like to refer to him as Q, as folks in the markets have been for a very long time. He is the chief brokerage officer at Robinhood. We talk a lot about some of these new products you've been rolling out. I've been trading them on the Legend platform. So, obviously futures, love, we trade a lot of options there. Event contracts. So, we dig into that and we'd love to hear a little bit what you think of that product, too. So, Guy, where do you want to start with Steph here?

Guy Adami2:14

Well, this is where I like to start because sometimes people seemingly have a crystal ball. And beginning of the year, Steph's target for the S&P was 6,500, but she said you could potentially you could reasonably see 6,750 at the end of the year. As I'm sitting here, magically, that's exactly where we are. So, my question to Steph is, you know, how did you sort of foresee this? And more importantly, what within that 6,750 made sense and what were some of the outliers that you really didn't see coming?

Steph Guild2:48

I saw a lot of growth obviously coming from like the tech space and AI. And I just like to look at earnings expectations and then apply a value like do I agree with that or not? And I actually spend time looking at each sector's earnings expectations and then adjust them based on like what I actually think they could do. Apply a multiple to it and get to a number. And I got to 6,500 on that. I could have put a little higher, but because if you think about this time last year, we were facing a new president, right? And we didn't know, we knew tariffs could be coming. We didn't know to what extent. And so I pulled it back a little bit from where I thought it could go without them. And then obviously tariffs hit and the markets tanked and then they came back, right? They grinded back pretty strongly. We got to my target in September and the one thing that I felt like there was going to be some correction. We ended up having it in November but it was short, right? What I didn't expect is that there would be a lot of debt being taken on in the AI space and then that would create some skepticism in the space. And so we just thought there would be three stages of AI. It would be the hardware part, the software part, and then seep into the economy. Not all in one year, but that's kind of where I thought we were getting into the September into the software side. But I was wrong about that. The hardware side went on for way longer. And now because it's not just cash that's being used, but also debt and the private credit space started showing some signs. That's the part I actually didn't expect that is making me nervous for next year.

Dan Nathan4:27

Yeah. And when you think about that spend and I think you do a really nice job kind of differentiating between this kind of buildout which has been hard hardware right when you think about the data center stuff there's a lot of stuff that's in power right but I think your point is like you were just maybe a little too early right so think about when agentic AI right when the folks in all these different industry I keep saying folks a lot of folks guy you made fun of me earlier for using that term it's kind of folksy but when you get a lot of these companies that are waiting to use this technology. They're waiting to spend there, right? And they want to increase productivity. They want to actually create better products and services for their customers. It's not there yet. I mean, and that's the thing that is likely to be the next leg of this trade. And so, as we kind of go in towards year end, and we know that these have again been huge drivers of market performance, of earnings growth, but also as it flowed through to GDP here, like maybe the next leg is in financials, is insurance, is you know, all of these. We're starting to see a guy's been all over the retail thing. Healthcare is going to be a big one. So, how do you think about that? Because might that be the kind of next leg of this trade?

Steph Guild5:35

Yeah. My call was in April. I thought that next wave was happening and that's why I was early on that. And so, I'm writing a piece that's going to publish today where I was like now I think it's actually happening. And I think the market's recognition of it started on October 29th when we had that initial pullback of 6%. I think it really is starting and that's when you have a new phase starting you have market jostling around going back to the old trend the new trend like no one's quite sure of it. But I think it's actually starting and that's why I think like a name like Salesforce it's been so disappointing because I think they should be benefiting from all this but they haven't yet but I actually think that is going to be the next leg but it takes time to learn how to do it in a way where you're giving up control to another thing and can it do it in a high quality way where it doesn't ruin your business and that's what I think is taking a little time.

Dan Nathan6:32

Well Guy you've been all over using agents right to do all sorts of things in your personal life.

Guy Adami6:36

Unbelievable. I mean I've really put them to work religiously here in the Morristown studios.

Dan Nathan6:42

That's us being very facetious. I mean but there is one thing you know Guy is obviously never going to let an agent book his trip or pay these bills or do this forever. I just think you got to take the over when that's really going to happen because trust is so important, right? And it's going to have to be demonstrated over many many months, maybe quarters, maybe years and in sectors that are heavily regulated. The idea that you're going to let agents talk to each other, you know what I mean, and transact and that sort of thing. I think we take the over on that. I know the government is trying to make some federal rules about it. And maybe that will be helpful. A lot of states have made lots of rules and I think the feds here, whatever it is in the administration, they think it's probably better off to have one set of rules. But again, I'm just kind of taking the over Guy when agentic AI and I mean this sincerely, is going to be something that powers productivity and earnings growth. And I know that contradicts what I just said, but that is the next layer at least companies spending on that.

Guy Adami7:43

Yeah. And there's a lot of runway between here and there. And then the question then becomes a lot of these companies and the spend if they're not seeing the return on investment does that get ratcheted back and to a certain extent I think that's what we've been seeing over the last couple weeks. But you know my next question Steph and it sort of all is part and parcel to what we're just talking about. You nailed it this year. Let's talk about next year because your target for 26 is 7,300 in the S&P which suggests about a little less than 7% from where we currently are which you know suggests as you said earlier you're somewhat cautious. So speak to that.

Steph Guild8:17

Yeah, I'm just cautious because I think at least for now and my view can change obviously as new information comes, but I just think the largest companies aren't necessarily going to be the biggest winners and that is why I'm more tempered on the S&P as a whole. But I think you can still see higher returns in areas of the index that aren't as highly weighted, right? So, I do think the consumer and the affordability issues are coming to a head. They've been talked about for a while, this K-shaped economy, but I think they're coming to a head. And I do think it's going to be a bigger theme for the administration next year. And between that and whether you believe it or not, inflation data that comes out a little lower, you know, you do have a new Fed chair next year. I think there's just some wind at the back of some of these non-store retail brands that have been just demolished this year that I actually think are looking kind of interesting. And so Gap is something we've been owning, for example, for all year. We recently put on a position in Lululemon. It is up a lot since that time, but you know these are not without risk. And so I think it's kind of going back to the consumer maybe being strong and then like I said in spots of tech that aren't as big. It doesn't mean we hate every hyperscaler but it just means that I think you'll start to see a little more appreciation for value.

Dan Nathan9:46

Yeah, I think your point about two retail names there. One is consumer discretionary, say Lulu, right? And the other is probably more of a staple, right? And so the valuations actually kind of reflect that. And I think in a K-shaped economy, you know, and again, execution is a huge part. One of the reasons Gap has come back, better execution, right?

Steph Guild10:04

New CEO in 2023.

Dan Nathan10:06

And Lulu is like the opposite in a way, right? Like they've been disrupted by some trends maybe and miss.

Steph Guild10:12

Tariffs hurt them.

Dan Nathan10:14

And I would throw that into some degree execution, right? But you know, one of the things I just wanted to kind of double click on this a little bit. And so when you think about expectations for earnings, last week FactSet earnings insight blog, this is John Butters. He was talking about the S&P 500 is expected to report earnings growth of 14.6% for 2026, which would mark the third straight year of double digit growth. Mag 7 companies are projected to report earnings growth of 22.5% for 26 while the other 493 are expected to report growth of 12%. So what you just said you're less excited about that top 10 and you're more excited at least from a stock picking or a sector picking standpoint about the others. So if you're getting 12% growth of the 493, can you make a broad market call? You know what I mean? Getting to whatever your expectations are with just relying on the heavy lifting of the other four because that's a reversal of what we've seen last year.

Steph Guild11:13

A reversal although this past year you actually did see an improvement in the other 493. But when I was looking at it I went by sector and I saw tech 23% earnings expectations. I actually took that down to 18. And that's really what drove my expectation of 12% earnings growth for this year and then I applied a multiple to it to get to the 70. What did I say? 300 or something like that. But the multiple I had to apply was still not light.

Dan Nathan11:38

Yeah.

Steph Guild11:38

And that's like

Dan Nathan11:39

Which was

Steph Guild11:40

I think it was like 22 times. Okay. But it's still not like it makes me uncomfortable because I feel like I grew up in a world where the average is 16 times and 18 or 19 is high. And so 22 I'm just like oh wow. But is that the new norm? Because are things more productive? Are, you know, because we're going into perhaps a lower Fed rate. And I actually think they're going to cut 25 basis points, which the probability did go up today. Or just went up this past week, I should say. But I think there's a case for things just being like I made slight adjustments to the rest of the different sectors in my analysis upward and then just a bigger cut down. But 12% earnings growth is not light in the history too. In the long-term history, 6% is average. So that's why I'm just a little more cautious in the biggest names.

Dan Nathan12:34

All right. So since you brought it up in terms of multiples and different a lot of it hinges on Federal Reserve and you just mentioned that the odds for a cut have grown and that probably is going to happen. So let me say this. You know, last week we got a jobs number which I think was disappointing on through the lens of the unemployment rate which probably solidified the Fed's pivot back at Wyoming that they were more concerned with jobs and inflation. Then subsequently got a CPI number that was cool. People are going to sort of pick at it saying a lot of data is not in but let's just look at it at face value. What's your expectations for the bond market? Because a lot of people think back end of the curve is going to go down. I am not one of those people. Let's talk about bonds and the Fed and all those things that make this up.

Steph Guild13:21

Yeah. So, I expect another cut at the next meeting. Which is now I looked at prediction markets and you know it's been trending a little higher especially ever since the CPI. But I just don't see a way like I felt like the administration was like tariffs because you know he said I'm here because I want to get the deficit down. He said it multiple times. Now I feel like that's not even on the list of things to do. It feels like again my view of turning toward the consumer and turning toward the everyday person and using those funds in a different way. I don't know what's going to happen with the court cases too, right? Like that's another variable in there. My view like at some way or another they'll probably keep the tariffs. But I just think that the long end of the curve is going to be stuck there because there's no way you cut it you're going to get this deficit down materially and it's not like we're making best friends with every single other country. And so I'm just it makes me concerned that we're stuck at this four and a quarter area on the 10-year and then you do have the Fed that cuts because they do have to balance these two different things that are happening in the economy. And so that means that you have a steep yield curve and that's why we own regional banks in our portfolios. And I don't know what that's going to mean longer term, but I do think a higher long-term rate also means that stock picking should be rewarded over time because you don't have this tailwind like we actually did. The Fed did a study in 2023 from 1989 to 2019 40% of all US corporate profits were driven by interest rates and lower corporate taxes like lower interest rates and lower and you just don't have that. So that's why I think you have more CEO changes, you have restructuring capital.

Dan Nathan15:25

Yeah. One of the things I think is being underappreciated for next year and you know last week the president held this prime time talk from the White House and speaking about affordability and I think it's one of those things that he's pulling very badly on. He's trying to blame it on the prior administration and every administration would do that. This is not a political comment one way or another but as you get into an election year and let's say you do have that unemployment rate ticking up towards 5%. Heck it's already at 4.6% right? Let's just say growth is, you know, 2.2%. I think that's expectations for GDP. That is right at the average over the 10-year period prior to COVID, right? Let's say 2.7% on that CPI number, which again, there's lots of puts and takes on that one way or another. We're going to get another CPI and a PCE before that next Fed meeting, right? You do have taxes going lower. You do have fiscal stimulus that's kind of kicking in as part of the bill. So there's a lot of things you could say, well if the Fed and the Fed CME Fed watch tool right now to your point is about 75% for another 25 B that's moved a bunch like 90 something. So then if you throw in okay the fact that let's say in January you know Trump appoints somebody who's going to do his bidding to the FOMC and let's just say you're seeing a merger of the Treasury and the FOMC. I mean, there's a scenario though where to Guy's point like rates just go higher. You know what I mean? Like you can take down the Fed funds, but rates go higher because let's say inflation doesn't really move a lot. Inflation expectations would actually likely go higher, right? If you have the inclination that you're going to have, you know what I mean, like all that sort of stuff. And we're already seeing QE, that sort of thing. So, it might be a really tough period. And there might be political pressure to lower interest rates dramatically, which is something that, you know, Trump's already saying that could be, as Guy likes to use this term, a witch's brew a little bit, right? And so talk about that. A lot of moving parts, but I think the election and then the new Fed chair and inflation sticking around and unemployment not going. I don't know if lowering 50 basis points or 100 basis points is going to do a lot to fix that.

Steph Guild17:38

No, I don't think it will. That's why I think it's one of those things that makes me think, okay, enjoy it for now because it may not lead to a good outcome in the longer term. I think there's so that's why we think the long end is going to stay where it is. It could even go up depending on if they're not allowed to have tariffs, like what happens with that? That means there's really nothing helping the deficit, potentially helping the deficit at all. And that will I think make bond investors even more nervous about our financial state. And then that has an impact on the affordability of houses and of credit card interest rates and everything else. And I think the only way I truly see interest rates going down is if we do have a bad recession and inflation expectations just come down and growth expectations come down and then you kind of have this flushing out of things. I don't wish that upon us, but I don't see another way right now. And that's why I think the Fed can cut, but the one thing I don't know if it's true. I may be a conspiracy theorist right now. I need to do a little more work. I did find a Reuters article on it, but apparently all the Fed governors typically it's like this nobody cares thing and it happens around the time when the new Fed chair comes in, but they went and voted themselves for the next term early. So that the people who the voting members are not all going to be doves. And apparently the administration is upset about it because now they can't control who's in it. So that was the one thing I was like oh maybe rates are going to not go down. There will be somebody there trying to counteract potential inflation pressures.

Dan Nathan19:21

Let's talk about crypto. Because you know Bitcoin is having a tough time into the end of the year and it's become increasingly volatile in my and I know this is a volatile risk asset but there's been some orderly moves to the upside over the last year and a half you know we had the proliferation of ETFs right and that was a nice little catalyst right and then you had these digital asset companies right like these treasury companies and there was demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum that sort of thing and then you had the promise of clearer regulation right when the new administration was coming in and you know all of a sudden though I want to say over the last you know it really had this move to what 125,000 this is Bitcoin but since then you know it's gone back to below 90,000 there's not much of a rally it gets sold there's you know at least where Guy and I are sitting we think there's a potential for and it's probably going on and you just look at like a MicroStrategy and you see what's going on there's an unwind in this last leg of the thing that brought it up to 125,000. And so I'm just curious like how are your customers thinking about this? You know, you guys see more crypto flow than probably all of your biggest peers, you know, that sort of thing. Is this something that they are buying the dip on? Is it something that they still think, you know, is it beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum? Are you seeing this in other altcoins? Because obviously you run money. Is this something that you find attractive?

Steph Guild20:49

So, I'll answer the second question first, which is we do see the benefit of crypto over the long term, but we haven't had it in our portfolios. Just based on the time that we launched, which was March of this year, it had already gone up a lot and continued to go higher and then obviously has since dropped quite a bit. And I just was worried about what kind of volatility that would add to our portfolios in a time that felt kind of uncertain already and a lot of things had already rallied so we just didn't have it in the portfolios. But in terms of what we're seeing our customers do, I would say there has been buying has been relatively steady. We had a week or two where there was an uptick in sales, net selling I should say, and it was mostly the most traded is always Bitcoin, but the second place is changes. And actually in the last week or so, I'd say Ethereum and Ripple are the two competing for second place. Sometimes you see it's actually been mostly Ethereum and Ripple is number two. That are in and out all year. But this past week or so, net buying is back again.

Dan Nathan22:12

Okay. And then over the last few months, this bifurcation between Bitcoin and gold, it's something that's pretty substantial. And I'm just curious, do you see your customers buying gold? Guy's made the point for years now that central banks are just like China and has been buying gold and selling our treasuries. I mean, it seems like it's a one-way trade there and you know, you have gold at prior all-time highs. Is this something that's sexy enough for your customer?

Steph Guild22:34

We haven't I've seen gold buying through the ETF, the gold ETFs, but I haven't it hasn't been like top of the list this year. So, I would say that our between the kind of like gold and crypto, our customers probably bias crypto in that sort of trade. But you did see an uptick and most of it was in the first quarter or so of this year versus later in the year.

Guy Adami23:03

So I'm glad Steph brought up gold. I'm glad you brought it up as well, Dan. The gold story is not over by any stretch. And as much as people want to say it's driven by the retail trade or the retail investor, that's part of it for sure. And I think people got excited when they see Costco selling out of gold bars within the first couple days of each month. The reality is it's all central bank buying, Dan. And we've talked about this for a while. And this year, which is about to come to an end yet again, we see record gold purchases from central banks. And this has been going on for the last four years, and I don't see it stopping anytime soon. And now silver's getting in on the party as well because I think people coming to the realization that as much as silver is sort of the maybe the stepchild of gold. It's not. It's an industrial metal that has important values and qualities in the world we currently live in. And I'll say it again, I think you're going to see triple digit silver early next year.

Dan Nathan23:56

Yeah. And I guess the thing I would just say is I remember there was a time in I don't know a year a year and a half ago where the traders were trying to meme silver. You remember that? And so it is interesting to me though that you're seeing again this bifurcation between the risk asset which is crypto that a lot of folks were super geeked up about because of this asymmetric trade-off but then if you look at silver as Guy just mentioned you look at gold every dip has been bought in gold and now silver is just gone parabolic right and so then if you kind of just think about what Guy just laid out or the industrial uses of it and then you have the speculative aspect of it you know I guess it makes sense I'm not a buyer. I don't buy into bubbles, you know, that sort of thing. But, for whatever that's worth. All right, let's talk about event contracts because this is something I really feel like, and Q and I talked about this, and I'd love to get from your standpoint as somebody who's an investor. The whole idea here is that these might replace a lot of investing or trading instruments, right? Do you think in Robinhood Strategies at some point in the not so distant future you will be adding event contracts that could look like hedges rather than having puts, put spread, selling, call spread, you know, all that sort of stuff. And that's not something I gave a lot of thought to until Q started talking about it. I was thinking of it more as a speculative tool, you know what I mean? So, I'm just curious how you're thinking of it because you guys definitely seem to be on the forefront as it relates to an investing platform.

Steph Guild25:26

I absolutely think it's an additional tool and I absolutely want to put it into Robinhood Strategies. I think it works very well in a diversified portfolio. You just have to pick the thing that you have to do is what is the role that it plays and for me I would use it as a hedge. I would use it as a diversification tool. If I thought the Fed is going to cut in January, the probability was very low especially in the prediction markets and I was like oh this is kind of an opportunity to express that view because it's hard for me to express it any other way around an event. I can only be like okay I think the Fed's going to cut yield curve will steepen and I'll buy regional banks but that's like a muted instrument in that particular view so that's the way I think about it. And I think you can use it in personal life too. I live in New York City the mayoral race like you might vote for one person but if the other guy wins you know what like maybe you should vote like you can invest that way and say well I'm going to bet the other guy wins and I'm going to vote this way and it will be like my hedge against my vote. I actually think it's quite interesting in that way.

Dan Nathan26:45

Let's go to Robinhood Strategies and some of the ideas you mentioned Lululemon. There's some other names in there. Growth at a reasonable price, value stocks, and you know, the Robinhood strategy is seemingly growing by the day in terms of assets under management. So, speak to that and how you're looking at some of these names.

Steph Guild27:03

Yeah, we're at 1.2 billion, a little over that now. And we've been allocating to GARP, so growth at the right price for months now. Because I just something about the way that I kind of started in the business and learned from a value investor that I still care about valuations. And so we started adding for example to healthcare in October because it seemed like it just wasn't rallying and we didn't understand why and that's where we do think AI can help. And we've seen examples of that for years from early adopters of AI. So we have things like Eli Lilly and Nera. In the consumer space is something newer in the last like week or two where we like On Holdings for example, which is the sneaker company. When we bought it, the stock was still down on the year. And we think they have a strong order book. We think they've managed through the tariffs really well. Their PEG ratio is only 0.7 times. So, if you look at their growth compared to their PE ratio, it's still attractive. And their earnings growth expectations, they're not super low. So, that's a risk. I always look at what do people think? I think expectations are everything. So, you have to think about that. But Lululemon is another example of that. And then internationally we used to own more international when the tariffs came in because we thought there will be deals and we picked where the countries we thought would care most about that. So Japan for example we thought they're very reliant on the US consumer especially with their autos so they'll have a deal. So, we went into currency hedged Japan because we didn't know what was happening with their central bank. Still don't understand actually what they're doing, that's like a crazy experiment, right? Because they're going back to economics, but they're going to raise rates because they have inflation for the first time in like decades, which is great for them. But we owned a lot more Japan and we cut that after there was a deal announced. And then we still like China Tech because I think if there's any place and it hasn't been working more recently it worked but it's still up for the year that can actually give the US a run for its money and I know some people feel it's unpatriotic which I understand that view but I'm here to make money for my clients. I actually think they are if they're not going to get the chips they're going to figure out another way to do it and they're a very industrious nation so it still seems attractively valued.

Dan Nathan29:41

Yeah, you know, that's a great point because a lot of comparisons are being made to the late 90s the fiber build and into the internet. And obviously that created a very speculative investment bubble. What back then they did not have, it was not a two-horse race, you know. I mean, obviously China built this firewall and our companies were never going to be in there. They didn't have to spend to compete. And this technology is obviously a bit different. They are using open-source models. They are using to your point they don't have they have plenty of Nvidia GPUs but for the most part I think they're trying to make do with far less that's something that's being mandated by the government and you know all of this capital being spent by our companies hundreds of billions it's going to end up being trillions by the end of this decade it could all be for not if the Chinese are able to push around their open source models around the world that sort of thing so that's kind of a hedge in our portfolio too.

Steph Guild30:28

Yeah, I mean that's not a horrible way to think about it too. But we don't have to get into bubble or not. I mean, you don't have to get into the comparisons of the late 90s and what happened at towards the end of that. I mean, we all know that a lot of those great ideas, a lot of those businesses that were just too early ended up being huge, huge businesses. The same's going to happen here.

Dan Nathan30:53

The one question I guess I have towards the end of the dot thing everything else joined the party whether it was 493 or something like that and that was the thing that really got antennas up by maybe a lot of investment professionals that missed a lot of the dot sort of thing. But that was like the last gas for this. And so when you think about your outlook for next year, you're relying on multiple expansion of that 493. Is that fair to say? And you know, because a lot of folks are using 23, 24 times. You're not, but if you're getting comfortable with that, that means that there's got to be a lot of heavy lifting of hundreds of stocks in the S&P 500. So I'm curious how you reconcile that because, you know, if we look at CAT is a great example. This stock has 3x the performance of the S&P off the low of the turbine. What's been pulled forward? You know, when you think about Micron and those results and that guidance that they gave what's been pulled forward, you know what I mean? So, that's the I to me I see less risk in a handful of these big hyperscalers. They're going to be fine. The stocks can come in 35%. Obviously, that'll weigh in the index, but what do you think of the rest of these sectors? And you've talked about this already, but if they were to go parabolic, if we see a lot of cat tractors, I think the market is really going to have a difficult time for returns, second half of 26 into 27.

Steph Guild32:20

Yeah, I think without a doubt, I think I kind of want a correction, but I without a doubt, I don't think this when I'm saying like 7% up one is that like I'm still building in decent amount of growth in the tech sector. We're not like we don't it's not that we don't own any like we have Google in our portfolio. We still, you know, I guess what I'm saying is I think it'll be a little less unbalanced and I think there'll be I'm in that 7%. I'm not saying it's going to be a straight shot up for next year. I think there will be some period of time where we'll have to go through some consolidation and 7% is relatively like, you know, return next year is relatively fine versus the last few years that we've had, right? And that's why I'm just I don't know what the path is going to be. I just don't think it's going to be as strong because I think there's a lot of concerns and I'm just looking for value. That's why I'm trying to be more of a stock picker than like a you know like I'm just looking for themes that make sense to me. And I think the places that have worked a ton this past year aren't going to work as strongly next year.

Dan Nathan33:28

Well, you nailed 25. We're fortunate to have you for the majority of this year. Looking forward to working with you again in 26. I mean, if I can sort of sum this up, great call in 25. Constructive, but sort of wary of some of the headwinds and valuation concerns in 26, but you know, I think given the last few years we had Steph, people would sign up for 7%. Well, maybe they wouldn't, but they should for 2026.

Steph Guild33:53

Yeah. Long the market you've been spoiled.

Dan Nathan33:56

Yeah. Well, we have over the last couple years. You know, I think people forget, in the late 90s from 95 to through 99, there was 25% average returns there. So, sign up for it, I guess, because you might get surprised there. Steph, again, we really do appreciate you being here. And stick around for our conversation with Steve Quirk. We call him Q. We go through a lot of the products that you guys have launched over the last year. A lot of interesting stuff. So, put in a good word for me. He's my boss.

Well, hey, Steve Q, if you're listening. Uh, you know, Steph's been amazing. Um, and, uh, we hope you appreciate it. All right, Steph, thanks so much.

Steph Guild34:31

Thank you.

Dan Nathan34:37

All right, welcome back to Risk Reversal Podcast. I am Dan Nathan, obviously. This is Q. We know him as Steve Cork. He is the chief brokerage officer at Robin Hood. Q, welcome back to the podcast.

Steven Quirk34:48

Thanks for having me, Dan. Glad to be back.

Dan Nathan34:50

Yeah, you and I bump into each other a lot of industry stuff. It's always fun. Um, but you know, last time we really sat down. It was on the stage of the Hood Summit. I think it was September 10th. Um, and I got a lot to talk about there, not just our experience in and around the uh the floor and some of the stuff that we did um on stage, but really spending a lot of time with your users um was really interesting to me. And we were there the year before last, too. Um, so we'll talk a little bit about the activity that you guys are seeing there. You got a bunch of new products here, not just on the actual legend and mobile. Um, but you also have some really interesting. We're going to talk about prediction markets, going to talk about what you guys launched and really um it's kind of astounding um just the volumes that you're already seeing, but the breadth of products that can be traded or if you think about verticals, that sort of thing. So, um want to hit all of that. And then you guys have made a big push into AI tools um for your consumers. So, we want to discuss that. Um, so Q, let's talk about it, baby. Um, so last week we saw Vlad on CNBC. He seemed pretty excited about all this stuff. I go back to September 10th, very excited about all that stuff. You were on stage, it seemed like every other um, you know, session there, and you guys were geeked up about the offerings that are coming out in 2026. So let let's first talk about prediction markets, I guess, because this is something that's got the financial world a buzz. It's also got I guess the betting world above uh you know a buzz and you guys are sitting right there in the middle of it and I think what's most interesting you have 26 million funded accounts and you have now everything there for them. So let's just talk about that. What were some of the drivers of this offering too?

Steven Quirk36:33

Yeah. Well, first of all, if I'd like to say thanks for coming to our conference and talking to those customers because they're obviously big fans of yours and guys and so nice of you guys to make it and you know, you get to feel the enthusiasm. These are young really passionate traders and investors that um you know, they love to tell us what we're doing well, but they also love to tell us what they'd like to see us do more of. And uh part of it is having interactions with people who really understand the market. So thanks and thanks for doing that.

Dan Nathan37:08

Yeah. I mean one of the takeaways I would say is that the products that you've uh you know kind of rolled out over the last few years. The brand itself like the transformation here. It really is. We spent a lot of time talking to investors. You know you know what I mean? And and I think that's really interesting that they recognize, you know, the offerings that you have because it's not just short-term trading, which obviously is huge. You guys have futures, also options, crypto. I mean, the list goes on. Obviously, ETFs and stocks. So, that was one of the things that one of my biggest takeaways. So when you ask when you talk about the things that they want I mean how receptive like how do you prioritize you know the offerings because I think that's probably something that you know prediction markets event contracts have been right like at the four for you guys.

Steven Quirk37:53

Right.

Dan Nathan37:53

Yeah I think it's that the exercise of figuring out what's going to be prioritized and what's going to be delivered and built and given to customers it's an interesting exercise because you know Robin Hood's every financial services firm starts off in one area. You can't nobody's going to open up and have a complete offering. It's just you, you know, it would take you 10 years to build it all and by then you you know you wouldn't be able to keep that momentum going. So, everybody starts off with something and for Robin Hood it was self-directed and really more self-directed for first timers. Robin Hood is amazing at having cracked the code for just reducing all the barriers to entry whether it's account minimums, fractional trading, I can trade with $5 information um you know access to all the products and so that success has been magical. But now you know when you get the customers in they become more sophisticated they get more assets they get more uh capabilities and they say I want this I want this I want this like one of you know last year one of the most popular instruments that were were asked for by our more active in investors and traders were index options and as soon as we delivered them you know if you talk to the SIBO they're like they've never seen growth as explosive as when we launched those same thing with futures at the CM me, you know, Terry and team, you know, we've had long partnerships with them and love the work they do and collaborate quite well, but man, when we launched futures, um, we had more traction in five months than we had in 5 years at TDMIR trade. So, it's a it's a, you know, they're clamoring for things that, um, they think institutions have access to and that will help them in their investing and, um, we just deliver those. But to your question on priority, you know, we all of course talk to the customers because that's the first rule of thumb in understanding what they want. But then we sort of have to prioritize because you know the road maps are really heavy. Um the one thing I would say Vlad and team are always pushing us on which is good is just making sure that we continue you know to deliver for these customers and um the latest of which you know is prediction markets which was something that as soon as we saw the opportunity you know we had that thing built in two or three weeks.

Yeah. What was the moment though? I mean you've been in markets I don't mean to date you um for you know three decades and you know you can date me.

Steven Quirk40:27

Yeah. But you you know you started on the floors, you know what I mean? Then you you went upstairs and then you started building technology products and you thought about you know the democratization of this well before you were at Robin Hood and like you said I mean that is the mantra um for you guys. You brought a lot of people online right you know to to actually be self-directed. You give them the tools um to do that. you know, I I've been trading futures on the legend and I just can't think about doing it on other platforms on other legacy platforms knowing that what was being delivered. So, when you talk about you, Terry Duffy and I were on stage together and Terry, you know, for for them, I mean, this is a huge unlock, right? Like bringing these products to retail. So, like talk a little bit about that. Like what is it meant from an education standpoint for you guys? Because you do have responsibility, right? like if you're going to give people the tools, you're going to launch the products like like how have you thought about because obviously I spent a lot of time with Obie who's the head of education for you guys and he's very passionate about it to say the least.

Right? Yeah. And he and I worked together in the past. So, you know, he has he's very good at at what he does and understanding what we need to do from an education standpoint. But like I would say the the evolution of this all you were talking about your floor experience, my floor experience. One of the best things that happened to me was um I I early in early in my career I went to work for a couple Dutch firms and they demutralized their exchanges years ahead of us and as a result you know the market makers were not just the people on the trading floor. the market makers were the world. And when that happens, you have to build the technology for those people that is, you know, similar or at least on par with the technology that the people in the trading pits had. And that what that didn't happen for like five to six years later in the US. So I got to experience that and be part of that. So I it gave me an understanding of what customers needed retail customers at home needed to be able to interact with markets in in a similar manner than you and I used to you know on a trading floor. So that was that was kind of an interesting um exercise and and then once you have that mindset then you start to understand all the things that these customers need. Hey that's great. I just gave them really robust tools. Guess what? I we have to teach them how to use them. Yeah. I mean, you and I learned on the trading floor with a whole bunch of people, you know,

Dan Nathan43:03

But those people were yelling at us, Q. And and so you guys are you it's a little bit more welcoming educational experience, I think.

Steven Quirk43:10

Yeah, they it is a little more welcoming. Yeah, we're trying to welcome more in. So So I think that and then like all the things that change from, you know, our day and I I should say more my day. I'm probably a little before you. um you know the cost structure, the technology, access to information, you know the ability to you know to do things without high notional values. The whole playing field went from completely skewed on the institutional side to one that I would argue is much more balanced and so it it gives uh retail customers u you know an opportunity to be able to compete in a very um lucrative way. Yeah. Um, you know, you just mentioned some of the innovations, right? So, we all go back five years and we remember it was like free trading, right? And then it was fractional trading and those might have happened around the same time and again that was probably a big big unlock for first- timers like getting into the markets, right? And then obviously crypto was a thing. um how did you guys think about doing 24-hour trading of equities because that's not something that um a lot of other institutions were probably ready to do and probably a lot because the technology wasn't there and you know a lot of times you remember waking up and looking at the futures you know overnight and there was no way to really look and see where a stock was trading and and I've been amazed opening up the platform you know on my phone you know overnight and seeing the futures let's say you know down 75 pips and you can actually look and see and there's actually volume trading, you know, and I know that you guys just expanded um S&P options trading, that sort of thing until what 6:00 or something like that, I think. Um so talk to us about that because that is actually very new and innovative and that I promise is going to get us to prediction markets which trade 247.

We'll get there. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, that's one that I have been particularly passionate about the extension of uh trading hours on particularly on equities but I really believe all asset in five years every asset class is going to trade around the clock because the technology is underpinning crypto and other things you know it's already happening in futures it's already happening in crypto it's already happening in some asset classes but you know the most popular asset class was equities and you know when we first started working on it first of all you have to convince a regulator and we did that. We had conversations with the SEC and trading in markets and you know walked them through the logic said like not only for people in in the US but internationally there's a strong demand to trade in our markets and they want to do it during their waking hours so we should make it easier for them. Um then there's a strong uh push to help industry participants listen I was on the other side of this. I remember in when I was in the world of trading on a trading floor and they were like, "Oh, maybe we're going to extend the hours." We're like, "No, no, no. We don't want to work." So, the people that push back the hardest are the people that are kind of the institutions that had to, you know, staff it and things like that. But, um, look, a lot of the market makers, they already trade around the clock all the time anyway. They're international. They're around the globe. That part wasn't as difficult. But when we first did it, we went to the exchanges because I'm like, well, this is the logical place to start. And they were they they kind of had said, "Look, we don't think there's going to be enough volume to to um substantiate us doing this." And um my argument back was um you you don't like essentially I I used a probably a poor analogy um because I had to convince my our own board that this was something that we should be doing and the analogy I used is the exchanges are restaurants. We're mass transit. If you have a restaurant and you can run that restaurant around the clock, uh, and I'm still bringing people in around the clock, you would run that thing all day long, especially if it's really like like not labor intensive. In other words, it's largely electronic today. I think co has proven that like you don't really need human beings on a trading floor um for the most part. But so I think in understanding as soon as you're you have people that desire to trade around the clock, there'll be plenty of liquidity there. And now, you know, look, how many years later, four or five years later, every exchange is now offering it and they're coming out with it and it'll it'll be the norm. It it also opens up the whole globe.

Dan Nathan47:47

Yeah. Well Well, speaking of globe, I mean, didn't CME prove this out like three decades ago with GlobeEx, right? like for futures and and the technology must have been fairly rudimentary, but it worked. You know what I mean? Because I was at, you know, a couple different hedge funds back then and and the folks that, you know, I worked for uh or risk managers. I mean, they Globex was trading. I mean, they they was it was you were able to manage risk real time waking up in the middle of the night.

Steven Quirk48:14

You had to have a Globex terminal. That's right. I remember I remember those days.

Dan Nathan48:18

And you had to be an institution that could actually afford to support it and the like there. So, um, again, I find it pretty fascinating because it's not something that retail, um, ever had access to.

Steven Quirk48:30

It's really interesting. The average age of a Robin Hood customer is early 30s and many h half of the 26 million are are new to investing. It's really fascinating to listen to them when they discover that you can't trade equities, you know, prior to us launching that that you couldn't trade equities around the clock. And you know their questions are like like this is like saying Amazon closes I don't get it like it's an electronic marketplace why what does it matter you know I mean don't get me wrong there are things that have to happen on the back end of this you know liquidity and etc. But um you know it it just seems so and by the way they would all tell you you know look I went to work I you know did everything and then I came home and started working on my investment or trade thesis and did my homework and education and I went to put it in and said see you tomorrow morning at 9:30. They're like what?

Dan Nathan49:28

Yeah.

Steven Quirk49:28

What is this? That that's that's a really interesting uh you know sort of thing to be aware of because you know the analogy you gave right there it's like wait Amazon closes between 6 pm and you know 6 a.m. you know, um, so that's pretty interesting. Um, you know, so one of the things obviously crypto as you mentioned is 247, right? And so that market probably really unlocked a whole heck of a lot at least from a regulatory standpoint like the way they think about it. And yes, there hasn't been any clear frameworks until maybe, you know, quite recently. But it did open the door if you had like a cohesent a cohesive sort of argument of why this actually will better serve um consumers. So all of this has opened the door, you know, for a new product and, you know, I remember looking at one of your quarters, I want to say a a couple quarters ago. I mean, options and crypto are a huge growth area, have been a huge growth area for you. So all of a sudden, just give me a sense of like how you guys a year ago were thinking about event contracts and prediction markets. And I I know that they were publicized in politics and and other things, not as much as financial markets. like when did this become a thing where you're like we have to focus on it. This is our next crypto or options?

We've been um so we've been around the edges of it for some time without any real idea that it would be something that we would be um really focused on. Um because when you're in the futures market, you know, there they f like CME was experimenting with some binary things and some other products that were of interest, but nothing really caught fire. Nothing really got the the attention of the of customers. Um and we we've been talking to Kelshi forever. Like I talked to TK three years ago, you know, when we when um in Menllo and really bright people, he and Lana and every Shane, they're all super bright and do an amazing job. Um but you know, I think there's a timing element to all these things. And the timing for us was um there was a back and forth, a legal challenge back and forth around prior to the election in November last year. And um and finally it became evident that they were going to be permissible. And so you know Vlad, myself, JB like all had a conversation and said like we should we should really do this. We should go for it. And um you know challenged ourselves and we kind of stood it up in a couple weeks and we had a week to go till the election and we I mean it was bonkers like you 600 million contracts and 800,000 accounts. It was nuts.

Dan Nathan52:15

I remember you guys talking about it and just seeing the growth there, but I want to take a step back. So, for some folks who are not familiar with these products, okay, so you've heard about prediction markets and you heard about them in and around political events and obviously elections is a huge part of that. Um, but then I want to distinguish between event contracts. So, if you were looking at the polls on an election, right, and then you said, well, you saw this online, people would be posting a couchy or a polyarket sort of situation. And I think a lot of folks that said, well, this has actually proved to be more accurate. Um, but a lot of people didn't think that you could trade this sort of stuff, right? So the event contract.

Steven Quirk52:53

Been able to. Yeah.

Dan Nathan52:54

Yeah. So just explain that a little bit. I think because I I think a lot of people again, they think about it. Oh, this was something that was used as a tool to help me understand this but is an alternative to polls. But then how did you you know how did folks draw the line between a able to being actually betting on these sorts of things.

Steven Quirk53:15

Right? Yeah. I think the the the beauty of of this versus a poll and it it was quite evident during um the election because we all sitting in a war room in New York watching this happen and watching the uh the contracts diverge. You know, the Trump was going up and Harris was going down and the networks hadn't called anything. They're saying the swing states haven't and everybody like you could see by these contracts it was over. And this was an hour or two before everything really was concluded. And so I think what it illustrated and I think we all knew this anyway is, you know, a a a poll versus dollars behind something is very different, right? I mean, we can you can tell me what you think, but your actions speak a hell of a lot louder than your words. You know, your actions are telling us what's happening. The value in these is so I'm a customer, right? And I think that if Trump is elected, I'm going to see crypto rally. I think I'm going to see Tesla rally. All these things happen. Um, and by the way, they started rallying as soon as, you know, the election contracts demonstrated that he was going to win. But if I have a more broad portfolio and I'm really trying to figure out which category is going to be benefited or which one of my segments of my portfolio is going to be more b is going to benefit more from one person or the other being elected um I have to do a lot of homework but if it's the election itself that's going to change the outcome I can just be more precise and say why don't I just put money behind that election and and that'll you know that basically will either hedge my risk or give me an opportunity to profit from this. And so on top of people just looking at it because now we have people that just come to our app and look at, you know, whatever it is, pick it, you know, cultural events, economic events, did the Fed raise, didn't they? What are the odds, etc. You can also put dollars behind it, which I think is is quite interesting. And that's something that you know we just saw that interest explode into in this category and then we started moving into economic indicators um culture into uh uh sports which is huge and so it's you know the whole thing is just taken off and the the amount of air the the amount of areas that this can go is absolutely stunning. I mean, Vlad was talking about one this morning. Like, think about an insurance, you know, insurance contract. Essentially, I'm I'm in Florida and there's a storm coming and um I can either hope or get try to get insurance of expensive insurance contract or I can just hedge it uh you know, using a prediction market on where that storm's going to hit. And um it's going to be a more effective way for people to be able to either uh be opportunistic or or limit their risks or hedge themselves.

Dan Nathan56:20

Well, and and again, I'm not telling you anything you don't already know. You're going to need to see market makers come in. You're going to need to see capital, you know, real real capital backing these markets, that sort of thing. And and that'll be really uh interesting. I I think that, you know,

Steven Quirk56:34

And it's already happening.

Dan Nathan56:36

Yeah. I I you know,

Steven Quirk56:37

It's already happening. I I I I've said this a few times over the last few months as you guys have been talking about this sort of stuff. I I think there's going to be like, you know, PhD like dissertations written about a company called Robin Hood. And I'm not just saying this because you're here, okay, that had this captive audience from, you know, an investing standpoint, 26 million funded accounts. And it doesn't really matter how large those accounts are relative, let's say, to some of your competitors because if you have the tools and you give them the offerings, now all of a sudden most people were trading or had the ability to trade 6 a.m. to 6 p.m., right? Whatever you know, equities and, you know, aftermarket, pre-market, that sort of thing. But now all of a sudden, you're saying you can open up this app and you can trade basically anything in a different manner. You have to, you know, learn how these things trade and everything like that. I just think it's fascinating like you know that that now is a thing you know what I mean in the vent contracts and you know it's going to take a lot of folks out doing different things like take them out of business without naming names okay like um you know and and we probably know who they are right like as far as like all right but I you said Koshi okay and I mentioned Poly market too these are the big competitors explain to me and obviously the listener viewer here what how did they fit in with this because you of you know you put these products on your platform. What does Kali do? Let's say being out there in the world for you know a company like yours, a platform like yours.

It's not the it's not a perfect analogy, but it's one I think the audience will understand quite well because we get asked this question often. Where is this going to go? You know, and and from a regulatory standpoint, there still has more there's more clarity that has to come. It's kind of it's not it's not that much different than um where we were with crypto you know three or four years ago you like there's a lot more regul regulatory clarity that was needed so as that regulatory clarity is is being delivered the perfect world for us is this is exactly like an equity and what I mean by that is I have Kelsey I can route to I have poly market I can route to I have the CME I can route to I have our own exchange change I can route to. That's exactly what we do today with equities, options, crypto, everything. We we we basically want competition so that we can drive a better experience. If they have products that um another exchange doesn't have and our customers want them, we go there. If the economics are better and we can deliver that back to our customers, it's a better experience. That's where this is going. it's already on a path to get there and that's bene that's just beneficial for the customer overall because you're it just compresses the margins and we deliver those right back to the customer and it's a better experience for them. We're not there yet. I mean, but we're on a path to be there. Um Kelsey's been super strong partner. They, you know, built the products and and they definitely we have a lot of back and forth with what products we think are going to be successful. They've been they've been a good partner, but we've also done things with Forecast X as well. That's who we started with. That's part of the Interactive Brokers uh or I think almost completely owned by Interactive Brokers. So, I think there's just a lot more excitement um coming to this space.

Dan Nathan59:59

Yeah. And and just looking at some of the numbers that you guys were talking about on CNBC, I mean, of your 26 million, you know, there's only 1 million of them trading right now, these event contracts. So it seems like it's a really um and again that will come through education on your platform and um you know so uh you know kudos um to you guys. Let's let's talk about tech here. I I think one of the really exciting things from the hood summit and I I could just tell by the energy in the room is when you guys were launching products like Cortex and like people wanted access to them, you know, soon right away and so you guys are are rolling some of these AI tools out. speak to how that works within your platform. And you guys have been thoughtful about this. You're not just jamming everything on on people. What What will people do? How will they research um you know ideas? How will it help them with portfolio management? Just give us a a little 411 on that.

Steven Quirk1:00:52

Sure. Yeah. I think we've been and I appreciate the the the nod to us being thoughtful because, you know, we're a we're a scale player. So we have to we have to be careful that we aren't just you know um we aren't just popping things off that uh could be detrimental to customers. So the way we've approached AI has been super thoughtful and what I mean by that is we've we've done a lot of work internally so operational efficiencies whether it's customer service etc. And then you know all the things that happen behind u the scenes at a brokerage firm um gaining um traction there and getting a lot more efficiencies with always with an eye toward what we're going to do to help the customer. Now, first thing is from a CX standpoint, sure. Yeah, we're deflecting or um having AI handle many many things that are simple requests and doing it probably better than um we were doing it previously because there's they're going to be more experiences than they can learn. Um but the second iteration of it is how can we help customers with their investing. The first thing we did was um which we rolled out this Cortex assistant and Cortex which permits you to essentially there's there's scripting, there's scanning, there's things that um that there's a probably a small segment of of really active people would utilize just because it's complex and it's not easy to do. Not that they don't want to have help in finding a good investment, but you know, they don't want to learn a scripting language, you know, and that's that's quite cumbersome. But if I have the ability to to just have, you know, give it give this um cortex a couple variables either through text or speech and have it scan the market and find opportunities that match the criteria that I'm looking for, it's magical. Second iteration is I don't even have an idea. Help me find an idea. That's kind of what we were talking about last week at the event. And that's the next iteration. Now I can actually have it help me in a way that is not only going to augment my current portfolio. I can just get a lot more information about that and understand if there's anything at risk or if I should be adding to it or if um even the diversification of it is off. It'll help me with that. Um but the second component is just help me find opportunities. where is the next opportunity going to lie and then point me in the direction of something that you think would be an interesting uh way to invest in that. I think it's going to be it's it's going to be a gamecher for people because it it's it's essentially expanding the audience of people that can do things that a very few select were able to do previously.

Dan Nathan1:03:43

All right. Another thing that really caught me at the summit um was this uh social platform that you guys are launching and you know I listen I used to find Twitter really useful engaging you know with with other folks and this and that or whatever and it's just not that anymore you know and so what you got you guys must have come to that conclusion yourselves you know without denigrating any other platform or whatever explain and and I can't remember what the name is and I I know it's going to be rolled out um in the new year Um, it just seems like a really good way to create community, a really good way to kind of, you know, crowdsource ideas. Forget, you know, not forgetting Cortex, but like leaving that aside because there is a human element of it. There is the thing where folks are really interested in the stocks, the products, the competition, the people who run the companies, you know, all that sort of stuff. And so I think this helps in that regard. So you have a qualitative aspect, which is the social, and then you have a quantitative aspect. But the quan aspect can actually find a home on the social platform because you have to be verified, right? And then to to post trade ideas and you have to have capital behind it. So explain that to let's say our listener here and why that differentiates you guys from let's say some of the other you know trading platforms.

Steven Quirk1:04:57

Yeah, I think the the problem with um with fintech social media in the past and I'm with I'm like you like you know X is the quickest place to get information. But you know um I think what people struggle with is you know everybody's making millions of dollars when they post there and that you know there's a belief that like are they really? Um and so in this community you will be validated. you you'll of course want to share that information. You're not going to, you know, we're not asking anybody to share information they aren't feeling um uh comfortable sharing, but these are real trades. They're real trades that we'll be behind here. And um you know, one of the things that customers really look for is validation. So even if they come up with an idea, Cortex helps them and they come up with a great idea, they still kind of want to say, "Hey, you know, I would love to have some people who think like me, who look like me, or you know, like, you know, invest like me tell me that this is okay." And so validation is really huge. You know, that's why investment clubs used to exist, right, at the YMCA, which my parents were both in. Um, but also I think it's an educational tool which is huge for us because again 26 million customers, half of them are brand new to the market. They actually need to find their way when they're first starting. They might start in equities, but they're like, you know, I'm kind of curious about crypto, but I really don't know that much about it. I'm just going to get in here and watch some people and see what they do and how they think and how they make these investment decisions or trading decisions and that's going to be very helpful for me. So, in that regard, I think it's going to be quite magical, you know, for for people to be able to just banter back and forth and and it's not just, you know, that you caught the fish, it's how you caught it and where you caught it. And you know all I'm using a terrible old analogy.

Dan Nathan1:06:58

Oh, you know what? The analogy you gave before the with the restaurant and the mass transit that was like okay that analogy I think you nailed by the way. Um so at least you you know you definitely um you know you thought that one might be dicey. Um well well that's great. I mean I'm looking to forward to see how that goes. You know what I mean? Whether it you know because I think that there's also going to be the sense of responsibility there too, right? if you're going to get social cred, you know what I mean? You can't just be, you know, an a-hole all over that thing, right?

Steven Quirk1:07:29

Well, one of the Well, that's the other thing. Like, if you're, you know, if you're on there and your game is politics, you're not going to be on there.

Dan Nathan1:07:36

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Well, that's good. I mean, I think

Steven Quirk1:07:38

Because people don't want to, they can get that in other forums. This is an investing forum. Yeah. I would also say, you know, you know, people like you who are influential in the space, you know, we're we're hoping that you will be there.

Dan Nathan1:07:51

Yeah. because I think you know your words will matter and be really helpful for people. So

Steven Quirk1:07:57

Yeah, I mean there was a time where CNBC encouraged us, you know, to kind of engage with folks during the show in particular. When I say encouraged, they were like, "Hey, you know what I mean?" Like, you know, the folks that are watching, they love engagement, so we did a bit, but then it got it got really nasty. You know, I'm off of it, by the way. I'm I'm off Twitter altogether. Um, all right. I know your your time is valuable. We appreciate all the explanation, all this stuff. One last question. What is something as we end the year if you could just say like that really encapsulates you know the the the customer that you have the trader that you have like what was the one thing that you want to take away from you know 2025.

Um, I think the one thing that I think I found the most encouraging uh, in 2025 was in the midst of the tariff turmoil, April, when the market got slammed and a lot of the most popular names were down 40 50%. Um, our retail customers did what they did in 20. They stepped in and they were kind of aggressive in buying the dip and they were handsomely rewarded. And when we talk to the media because they always reach out to us in times of volatility and say, "Oh my gosh, what are the we're the face of retail customers?" Oh, it doesn't that scare you that they're buying the dip. And my response is they're 30 years old. They should be buying the dip. They should be super aggressive at this age because they have 40 more years of investing. And if I look at historical returns, let's call it 9%. Sure, they might have five years where they don't make any money, but in the long run, it's it's the right thing to do. So,

Dan Nathan1:09:42

Yeah, and I guess it's behavior that's rewarded them. If you think if you want to bookend it where a lot of folks became um you know very aware of your trading platform let's call it in 2020 you know um they were rewarded on that quip dip and that that dip I guess in the spring of 2020 kind of looked not too different than the dip in 2025 right and then in the middle of that you had a very orderly bare market you know so it was the sort of thing that you could dollar cost average into you didn't have to make a quick decision so um again I I really appreciate that um you know we look forward actually talking more about this stuff as the products evolve, as you roll stuff out. Um because, you know, again, we're we're fans of the Legend and you guys have done a great job and it's been fun partnering with you guys. So, thanks.

Steven Quirk1:10:25

We're fans we're fans of you guys. Thank you very much.

Dan Nathan1:10:28

All right. Talking to you.

Steven Quirk1:10:29

Have a great holiday, man. We'll we'll talk to you on the other side. All right. Thanks.

Dan Nathan1:10:32

Take care.