About Pierre Andurand
Pierre Andurand, chief investment officer at Andurand Capital Management, said in October 2024 that the short-term risk for oil prices is to the upside due to low inventories and geopolitical risk. He stated that if Israel strikes Iranian oil export facilities, the market could lose 1.7 million barrels per day, potentially pushing prices $10 to $15 higher, though he noted that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait could increase production to compensate over time. Andurand described the medium-term outlook for crude as balanced, citing large non-OPEC supply growth and slowing demand growth, but said speculative positioning is at an all-time low.
In earlier appearances, Andurand discussed OPEC+ dynamics and European energy security. In November 2023, he said OPEC+ had not effectively cut production despite announced reductions, and that the market needed more OPEC oil. In November 2022, he argued that Europe could avoid Russian gas entirely by reducing residential and commercial demand by 15% and power demand by 5%, and that a price cap on Russian oil was possible but required careful enforcement. He also stated in 2014 that he expected oil prices to fall significantly lower before the market would rebalance.
Source: AI-verified profile updated from Pierre Andurand's recent appearances.
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Transcript (9 segments)
I
Interviewer0:10
How are you thinking about this and are you positioning bullishly for this story?
P
Pierre Andurand0:13
So basically, I think there's no medium term structural trade for crude. I think the market is quite balanced where we have a still relatively large non-OPEC supply growth coming for the next two years and demand growth slowing down. So it gives a bit of a bearish bias to crude. But again, we have the largest short ever in terms of spec positioning in the market. And non-OPEC supply growth has disappointed relative to expectations. So we're expecting 1.1 million barrels a day of non-OPEC ex-U.S. supply this year. We're getting at 400,000 barrels a day. Next year, it's expected to be 1.5 million barrels a day. It could well be a million barrels a day lower. So I would say overall, the market does...
...the Iranian attacks and generally the axis of resistance attacks on Israel. So that could impact the oil market quite significantly.
I
Interviewer1:24
What's your base case, your overall conclusion? Would you say the risk is for higher prices and not lower ones, at least in the short term?
P
Pierre Andurand1:29
I think the short term, the risk is for higher prices. Yes, because inventories are low. The markets have been trading on next year's balances, but it's hard to get much confidence on those. And speculative is at all time low. And we have a lot of supply risk potentially in Iran.
I
Interviewer1:49
Pierre, how high? Because in 2023 you had to call $140 per barrel in oil. What could this geopolitical risk push it up to?
P
Pierre Andurand2:13
...not too much of a game changer. Saudi's and UAE and Kuwait and a few countries could increase production to make up for it over time, but it would actually tighten the market and bring prices up.
I
Interviewer2:24
Then the question in the U.S. But how would you react to that?
P
Pierre Andurand2:27
You know, with the... they said that they would blow up oil facilities in the region, in Saudi Arabia and UAE. So they do it or not. I mean, but is there a range? We're talking about $80 where we are now or to about 100, 120? I don't see... I think maybe like ten to 15 dollars higher. So I'm not calling for much higher oil prices, but I think there are more buyers to the upside. I mean, the average price last year and this year for month has been around $80 a barrel.
