You have to. I believe in the program. There seemed to be concrete ideology when you were alongside the president in his first term. How would you describe this moment?
What is this all about? You know, no one knows for sure. But I think what we've seen evolve in the Trump presidency is this desire to negotiate and get a deal. So ultimately, is Greenland all about getting a deal? We know that the North Atlantic is becoming much more of a sought-after territory from a militaristic standpoint. So I understand the president's concern to have a military presence in protection of the North Atlantic as if we want to expand our air defenses. Greenland is a pretty strategic spot. So I understand what the president's interest is. They also have rare earths, which is something that we in the United States can't supply to ourselves. So the question is, is this a negotiating posture to get a deal with Greenland, to get more earths, to get a larger naval and air force presence? And it may be, it does seem like that's on the table and this may all evolve in a place where the United States ends up in a very good strategic position.
Do you think that's the way the business world sees it coming into the World Economic Forum this week?
You know, I think the business world is split on it. You know, you've got a European presence here and a U.S. presence here. I think the U.S. presence is a little bit more optimistic that this is going to end in the right place. And we've seen this before. I think the European contingency is a little more leery and say, look, you know, maybe you're confident this ends well. We don't like being in the middle of this right now, which is a reason why, in your opinion, our Treasuries are selling off much more. The dollar was much lower. And as the U.S. wakes up, people are coming in and buying it.
How much is the 'Sell America' trade real and how much is it a perception based on these moments, the ones that we saw in Liberation Day?
There is some 'Sell America' going on right now. I've met with a couple of different asset managers this morning, so that global funds are reallocating a little bit out of the United States. So you see that, you know, interest rates are higher, so people selling bonds, rates go higher. People are repatriating currency back home. They're selling dollars to buy local currency. They're selling stock market. They've got to repatriate currency. So I think we're seeing a little bit of that. I don't think that's what's driving the overall market right now. It doesn't feel like we've got to liquidate America. It feels like we've got to trim around the edges in asset allocation models going on. This goes back to the wrestling match we were describing. On one side, you've got politics, on the other, and they're facing off. And it's sort of 'Sell America' until it rears its head to get into the lead and that's where we 'Sell America' till the light turns green and everyone has to buy America because in the real reality, if you look at the U.S. economy and what's going on, we've got one of the strongest economies in the world today. You know, we're growing at five-plus percent growth. You know, we've got a pretty good tailwind going on behind us. I mean, right now the only thing stopping is all of this geopolitical risk, if and when. And I say when this geopolitical risk settles down, the market's probably going to take off again. And that's been the history of this pattern.
Settle down, Gary. Two and a half weeks ago, we captured Nicolas Maduro. It feels like a decade ago we're sitting in Davos talking about Greenland. You think you can whittle it down under two weeks?
Two weeks? Yeah. We're going to settle down. I think that there's a couple of balls up in the air right now. But, you know, this, too, shall pass. We can go back in the last eight, 12 years. And there's been periods of time where we've had these, you know, highly volatile geopolitical moments. And we're in a highly volatile geopolitical moment right now. And by the way, I'm not sure it's a coincidence that Davos is right in the middle.
All right. Interesting. I want to ask you about the Fed chair race, because you were in the room with the president in Trump one when he decided to go for Jay Powell. What kind of questions do you think he's lobbing at these individuals? And in the end, who do you think it's going to come down to?
Look, the president's in an enviable position right now. He's got what we know, he's got four really highly qualified candidates. Any one of those four could do a really good job in there. I think the president at this point is trying to understand the sort of mindset of the person he's going to put into the position. The president clearly has a view on what interest rate policy should be. The problem or the opportunity with the Fed job is once he appoints someone into that job, they're an independent agency and he loses his day-to-day contact with that person. So I think the president learned in the first administration that it's very important who he puts in that job and that he should make sure that he's very comfortable with their policy mandate before he appoints them.
Do you think it's become even more important now that that individual needs to have the ability to persuade the rest of the committee in a way that maybe a few years ago that wasn't as relevant? There's just a sense on Wall Street that the president's approach in the last 12 months has galvanized the rest of the committee to dig in.
Look, I think the committee structure is going to be the committee structure. I'm not sure if the chairperson can ultimately sway the committee that far. Could they sway one vote or two votes potentially? But you've got some very strong regional bank presidents. You've got some very strong governors in the Fed. I think the Fed ultimately, at the end of the day, is going to be a tough group to persuade. I think they'll come out in the right place. I mean, historically, the Fed has done a very good job. If they've been a little bit late. Yeah, they were late in the transitory inflationary problem of COVID. But they've caught up. They've gotten to the right place. I think if you look at the Fed through the cycle, they end up getting to the right place.
He was diplomatic about the four candidates. Can I just talk about some of them individually? You can. Governor Waller. You can say you could. Governor Waller. Well, I believe you were part of that process, right? Vice Chair Jefferson. You were part of that process, too. What was the president's approach to that process back then? Was he as involved as he appears to be now?
He was not as involved then. But you remember, he was a first-term president who was an outsider to Washington. That was part of his mystique as he was an outsider to Washington. He knew he had to put someone into the Fed chair role and he approached it. But I think now understanding the importance of interest rate policy and understanding his view of interest rate policy, he's taking considerably more time talking to the various candidates.
