Bank of America’s Brian Moynihan & Axios’ Courtenay Brown and Mike Allen

Thank you.

So, at least for some. And thanks for having me. So I think you have to go through the last, you know, 12-18 months. And so if you think about in the middle of '24, after the election in '24, you would say everybody raised their estimates for '26. Then you went through Liberation Day. I talk on US first and we everybody lowered their estimates. So we're at 2.8% GDP growth for '26 and that was all raised all after the resolution of the tariff became clearer, not completely clear, and as you move through the year so we're up 2.8, we just raised again 2 last Friday even after the earnings call. And that is, so the basics of that are that's 2.8%, the Fed will cut a couple times. Inflation continues to drift down in '27 it finally is out but it's not to worry about because it keeps moving the right direction. But it's driven by the consumer in the US. And so what we see in our own data is that supports that in that the consumer spent about 5% more for the fourth quarter '25 versus '24 and spent about, so far this January they're spending a little bit faster than that. But you got to see it play out here for the rest of the quarter. But consumers in good shape, credit's in good shape across the industry, across things. So, America's in good shape. And then next year, you have '26 meaning this year. You have the stimulus of tax returns and the bills for a lot of American people. You have the stimulus on the business side. And then you have the AI buildout. And then you have this more certain arena around tariffs. And frankly, tariffs are now sort of in the base. So, people have adjusted their methodologies and whether it leaks in or not won't be as inflationary next year as it could have. It did turn out not to be as inflationary as many thought, but it won't be, have less, it'll have a lot less effect next year.

Yeah. So the interesting thing is you with everything going on and you've probably talked about it all week a lot of the polls would say the consumers are not in good shape. They'd say I worry about X. By the way, they always are worried about stuff. The second point would be the K-shaped question. So there are difference in growth rates of spending of the lower third of income consumers of Bank of America versus the middle versus the upper, but all are growing. And if you look at wage growth, there are difference in wage growth, but all are growing. And so it's so this is a question of, you know, sort of how high is up or how far whatever as opposed to no people are going backwards. And so what I always use like in the fourth quarter our customers on their credit cards spent 10% more on cruises than '25 fourth quarter and '24 fourth quarter that is not consistent with people worried about what's next and the reason why they're not worried is the unemployment rate is very low in the US and so they know they have a job they're not being told but that worry wall that's always out there for everybody is there and it's impacted by the environment around but if you actually watch what they do, which is actually what you ought to watch what happens. It's real-time data. And by the way, they're spending just as much as on the cruises this January or last year so far and out to dinner and stuff, which is not consistent with people really worried about their economic picture.

You rent the week.

And you had all your hair back then, too.

Yeah, it's...

Yeah. So, Sir David Beckham. You're right. our relationship. We've announced our relationship with one of the great soccer players in history. One of the great businessmen around soccer and other things in the US and owning the Miami team and now building a new stadium. But why I met him last year here we talked a lot about it's the relationship he has had with kids. He's been a UNICEF best for 20 plus years. How he thinks about democratizing sport. His experience, the opportunities he got as a 14-year-old that he was taken out and taken to Manu and by 17 he's on the big team in front of a billion fans. And just and how that enabled him to do what he did. And so and so with our we have a thing called sports with us which is this major platform which tries to bring more people into more sports whether it's golf whether it's soccer whether it's all sports running we have a lot big running platform and so David believes in that democratization sport democratization of excellence in sport you know what it does for people for especially team sport you have to be an individual do your job be a great individual be the best you can be but you have to do it in a team context and that's a context which a good life lessons. So, he's been terrific and we look forward to a lot of great things. And as we finish up with what we call football in the US in the Super Bowl here in a few weeks, we'll turn to what the rest of the world calls football and you'll see the sponsorship come alive of the World Cup.

I'm an ugly American. I played American football. I played rugby which was sort of a bridge between the two games but no I am not capable of playing soccer.

Watch the documentary. You know for America that documentary is actually how they know him more than they know him from the soccer because you and but just watch the documentary. Yeah, he's a wonderful person and a lot of interest a lot of things very curious but watch a documentary.

I think it's whether our common interest in youth development through activity and through just so you know and thinking about that because that's the future of the world I think is so It's more of a common interest than a teaching each other. He knew it. I knew it. And we just can use his great capabilities to help us leverage even more.