Bing Gordon20:00
Yeah, yeah. You don't have the feeling you're physically in it. Level two—maybe that first iconic moment in movies where people in a theater saw just a train rushing toward them. But there you feel like you're in the middle of—in fictive, you're in the middle of an act. You identify, you empathize. But you don't have this feeling of physically being there. Whereas in these real place illusions, like Greenfield Village up in Detroit—Henry Ford just built this kind of 1915 walk the streets of America with horseless carriages.
And that is—it's really expensive to build. You could build the digital thing with zero maintenance cost—you don't have to go oil stuff and all that. But the real estate's free. But back in the days when the Museum of Science and Industry was building a coal mine, and probably today that'd cost a hundred million dollars to build. And you could do the same thing digitally, kind of in Unreal, probably in five people-years. And then the maintenance cost would be the cost to compute on AWS as opposed to the carrying cost of something like Museum of Science and Industry and keeping it up with maintenance and cleaning and power and all that. It's going to be kind of a 10x carrying cost.
So let's see, so metaverse in general. So if you think about the place metaverse, the level three, let's start with the benefits. And for me, the number one benefit of a virtual world—and this is pretty meta—is I wanted to live multiple lives. And kind of untrampled multi-lives. And I also wanted to live a random-access life as opposed to serial life. And by that I mean the way we live life is very much like an audio cassette. You can't really speed it up. One thing happens after another. And random access instead of an audio tape is a hard drive, and you can jump in at any point in time.
And so in games we have save and restore. So if you ever played Civilization, you go, 'Okay, I'm going to start at kind of 3,000 BC, and oh my God, the Visigoths just crushed me. Okay, by 1,000 BC I'm going to go back to 2,000 BC and do it differently.' And so I kind of love the fantasy. In my own life with kids, photos and videos are kind of a proxy for it, but I'd really like to go back for an hour to one daughter's fifth birthday. We kind of sit around the dinner table and remember it and pull out pictures or something like that. But I'd rather be there than look at the 10 photos at the time, or in this day and age on Instagram there'd probably be a thousand photos. But actually walking around it would be way more exciting.
And then the other thing about all these—or at least the fictive and the place metaverse—is you can experiment with identity. And I've come to believe that there's three ages of gamers. There's the pre-teenage, which is about physical mastery and agency. I first heard in a focus group in the '80s, 10-year-olds say, 'My teachers tell me what to do, my parents tell me what to do. In games I get to decide what to do.' And then watching kids, but especially boys, coming to grips with their changing bodies—that in games they can feel more coordinated. So for the pre-teens, when they're watching Marvel Cinematic Universe, 'Yeah, I'm The Rock.'
And then the teenage years are about identity exploration. And today's generation, with all kinds of fluidity, has much less friction in identity exploration than probably the British did in the 1800s or the Indians did in the 1900s with the caste system. But still, a 6'4" guy with a beard can shave a beard, but he's always going to be 6'4". Not in the metaverse.
In the late '90s, Lara Croft was the first game where boys would play a female avatar. And interestingly, about that time in EA Sports, the EA Sports designer said, 'Well, a player is just kind of a set of attributes.' And I tried to convince him that the EA Sports players would like to customize not just the stats but the way their characters look. They went, 'No, no, that's dolls are for girls.' I said, 'Haven't you heard of action figures?' And they go, 'No, that's different.' And we put in 'customize your avatar' in Tiger Woods Golf with Game Face, and sales went up by half.
And the whole team said, 'Well, boys don't want to customize their avatar.' And I took one kid named Mike Olsen—who turned out to be a really great producer over the next decade—took him over to Maxis and saw all the power of avatar creation in The Sims. And he got true religion, went back and put it in. So what I've seen—I pay a lot of attention—this was father and daughters. But boys, by the time EverQuest came out right around the turn of the century, 48% of the female characters in EverQuest were played by boys.
And there was this transition from 'I'm never going to play a female avatar,' said the boys, to 'Huh, when I play a female avatar, people are more generous to me.' And then it was, 'Oh, when I play a female avatar, it's more fun to watch than a dude, so why wouldn't I play a female avatar?' To now, there's no negative connotation. It's just kind of practical. Sometimes it's fun to be a female barbarian, sometimes fun to be a male barbarian. And over 20 years, the emotional effect of gender identity in games has been dramatically reduced. I think even Republicans probably play female avatars in games, not just in real life. I can go ask one in the street in Naples, Florida—trust me, that'd be easy.
And last night I was listening to the Bankless podcast and they had Punk6529 on it, and he's using a voice disguiser. You have no idea what he looks like, or she—really don't know. And the whole hour-and-a-half podcast is done through a voice disguiser. And it's really interesting to think that that person's making a career out of this essentially Disney IP character they've created and have put into the real world with some sort of personality.
It's kind of in the future. So let's see, a couple of thoughts for you. So state-of-the-art of metaverse today—it's all going—what's the structure that pulls you in? So in my world, the number one structure that pulls you in is games. World of Warcraft is my favorite game of all time. Ready Player One is all built on a game. Fortnite is a game. So the rules of the game and the heat of the game pull you in, and the place is secondary. The place is something that you discover as a way to succeed in the game.
There's another kind of metaverse, which you talked about Chuck Yeager, but it's simulations as a structure—which is to learn the rules of the world. And what I found in simulations, with Madden Football and with SimCity and with The Sims, with flight simulators, that expert players, the first thing they do is come in and try to explore the bounds. In a flight simulator, you see, 'What if—can I go off the edge of the map? Can I check gravity?' In football, 'Can I screw up the AI? Is the turf different somehow? Is bunting on AstroTurf different than bunting on grass?'
So what we found in simulations is whatever it takes to win, we can convince people that's real. So with SimCity, to have a valuable city you had to master the water layer and the power layer, and people came away from that thinking, 'Well, this is how power works in cities.' And so there's something about—and maybe scientists say that because it's beautiful, it must be real. So Einstein, before he could prove it, it just felt beautiful, and so he thought therefore that it must be right. Well, in a simulation, instead, it's what it takes to succeed is what you end up believing is real.
And then I got involved with Linden Labs, a Second Life company. And Second Life and things like Sandbox VR and Decentraland—geography is the structure. And we did it in The Sims Online. We found once we put a world and you could pick where your land was, players imputed value to different locations even though there was no value. In SimCity, in Second Life at least, there's a little cost of going from place to place. But so the imputing value in the map—my sense is about 10% of gamers love maps, and a bunch of people don't. But a higher percent of gamers love maps than there are map collectors in the world.
When I grew up, the AAA would give you a marked map. And when we'd take road trips in the family, the navigator would sit in the car with the map and tell everybody where to go. So we kind of fell in love with maps. And then there's—I think you were doing it—but in the work-from-anywhere era, I work with a company now called SoWork that's trying to do office simulation. So work from anywhere but give you a sense of presence.
And so presence as a structure—it kind of is the underlying benefit of Zoom, that everybody's present. But this whole notion of using virtual reality even on a flat screen—it's surprisingly, especially for the digital generation of people under 30, there's something about having a cube, having some of your trophies in your cube, having spatial sound so when somebody walks up to you on the screen you hear them differently as if they're coming closer. There's something about this in-between presence that is creating value for people. And it might be that it's generational—that people who have grown up digital now think you can get a lot of the benefits of being physically together by being virtually together.
And some are seeing the 3D. And I saw this at USC in the early 2000s—they did an Arabic simulator based on Unreal Engine, so it was a 3D shooter engine. And they found that they could teach raw recruits—Army volunteers who they're going to send to the Middle East—they could teach Arabic in a simulation at zero marginal cost, twice as effectively as with a one-on-one Berlitz instructor. Believe it or not.
Because there, they had to go in and—what I remember at one point, they would not only talk but they'd pick physical gestures. And at one point, there's a woman in a town about the size of Palo Alto with a flat tire, and as a US Army person you're supposed to go up and show that you're there to help and kind of get help points, because ultimately you want to get to the town elders. So if you can get everybody to like you—and so there's all this hubbub because she's blocking an intersection and here comes a GI all dressed up, and you've got to convince them in body language you're there to help.
And the one I remember is then an elder comes in and goes, 'Are you CIA?' And you go, 'No.' And they take out a gun and shoot you. And what you have to do is 'No' with kind of an umpire safe sign, and that means 'really no.' And if you just go 'no' without doing the arms, it means 'I'm lying.' And so that's—they call that presence as a structure.
And then there's something about haptics as a way to—you've certainly seen it in location-based VR—it does help the 'you are there' illusion. And then I talked about the other structure, which is overlays. And that was the core idea behind both HoloLens and Magic Leap. But they got it wrong all along—it's part of because they thought they were consumer products that they'd be able to sell for $300 to $500, ended up being $3,000, and suddenly they had a whole different app they had to sell.
So that's a metaverse rep. It's really interesting what the future is. So we talk about the future. Clearly, I think the VR future is—all this stuff is battery life, so you need to be untethered. But still, you need to have safe walking around. So I think right now I'm pretty excited about location-based VR. The business model has been worked out, and you get haptics and cameras. Right now I've seen it in what Dreamscape did, but also what Amazon did with Just Walk Out stores—that the math of cameras is getting so good that the price of lenses can come way down.
So when The Void first came out, to cover like a 40-by-40-by-40-foot area with kind of VR resolution of plus or minus two or three in accuracy, there was $400,000 worth of cameras in the ceiling. And then I think now that could probably be done for $10,000. And in five years, be done for $200. And I think Amazon, in their stores, they took away all the physical sensors and just did it with cameras. And I suspect—in China apparently, all kinds of citizen scoring based just on cameras. So once you have multiple cameras so they can, as you talked about with the golf game, infer actual location and get the Z-axis highly accurate.
And that's kind of all math. I saw that all the way back with the stuff that Kleiner sold to Microsoft for their visual thing. They had PrimeSense and then bought some 3DV from Kleiner. And 3DV was math and PrimeSense was parallax. And math is scalable and parallax a little less so. So that's going to make a big difference.
A couple other interesting things. Future is wondering what ChatGPT does both for the fictive illusion but also the avatar illusion. And that avatar illusion may get created by a combination of large language models plus better renderers. And I learned early on that the problem with skin and the problem with marble and the problem with art in general—patina—is all that stuff has subsurface light scattering, which is hard to do with computers. The way computers do it is they give you a solid plane or facet and then they do particles and the particles lay on top. And in real life, in skin, the reflection comes at multiple layers, and nobody can do that in computers yet.
And then there's another thing in the future of the metaverse, broadly speaking: the law hasn't caught up yet. So I think we're going to see in my lifetime the law starting to recognize virtual worlds as physical real estate. And we're going to—so in the early 2000s in Pennsylvania, there was a citizen lawsuit against Linden Labs trying to hold Linden responsible, treated like, 'You've kicked me out of Second Life but I paid, and therefore there's no such thing as eminent domain and you're treating it like eminent domain and I'm going to sue you.' Well, they lost.
And then similarly, there's a bunch of digital platforms right now that are replacements for movie theaters, physical movie theaters. And then I think in the '50s there was a consent decree where movie studios were not allowed to own movie theaters, because the law recognized that there was kind of a physical monopoly as well as content. So they untied them. And at the time there was a thing—it was tying—where to get the hot movie for a movie theater you had to take a couple of shitty movies. And that kind of sin led to this consent decree for the movie business.
And for whatever reason, elected officials in the '50s understood physical real estate, and elected officials in the 2020s don't seem to even understand email, let alone digital real estate. So I kind of think that as this digital generation grows up with metaverse as kind of a second reality, that the law is going to follow 20 years behind.
And then the ultimate of AR is basically something that looks like Oakley cycling glasses with all the power and all the compute embedded in an earpiece. And right now you got to do a cable down to a battery pack, and the Magic Leap is kind of pretty horsey. Nobody would wear that in public if they ever wanted to get lucky. But when I was a kid, people felt that wearing glasses was kind of four-eyes, and if you wore glasses it was an invitation to get beat up. And then later on people started wearing glasses just to look more legit, without even lenses in it.
And then over time, I think going from one pair of glasses—now glasses is a fashion accessory. And now glasses with tasks. So if you think about glasses, I have reading glasses and driving glasses. People have sunglasses to reduce glare. They certainly have fishing glasses, polarized to see through. You got motorcycle helmets and all kinds of windshield glasses. And I think far side, there's going to be a time in the future where we just take for granted you have your 'you are there' glasses and your 'make the world a better place' glasses. And they're going to be different because the technology is so different. And also the masking and power requirements are pretty good.
So I think we're going to look up and AR and VR glasses are just going to be new kinds of sunglass equivalents coming in at all kinds of prices. And sooner or later, we can imagine people with brains connected to electronics and eyes with physical implants. I think that's already starting to happen as well. And as weird as that sounds, I don't think it's a whole lot different than getting a knee replacement or a heart stent. So just various levels of human augmentation, and over time humans will adapt to it.