The international order based on rights and rules is currently being destroyed. In this new geopolitical environment, Europe has to become a geopolitical power. The monetary order changing, breaking down in a certain way, domestic political orders changing, geopolitical order changing.
It's official. The world order has broken down. The Munich Security Conference in Germany marked the end of it. According to billionaire investor and US hedge fund founder Ray Dalio, in an overall strong assessment of global affairs, Dalio concluded that the post-1945 international order has officially broken down. Referring to the European leader comments in Munich, Dalio drew his conclusion.
At the Munich Security Conference, German Chancellor Merz declared, 'The world order, as it has stood for decades, no longer exists.' And that we're in a period of great power politics where freedom is no longer a given thing.
You've chosen a grim motto for this conference: 'Under Destruction.' And it probably means that the international order based on rights and rules is currently being destroyed. But I'm afraid we have to put it in even harsher terms. This order, as flawed as it has been even in its heyday, no longer exists. And we, Europe...
Well, Peter Slaughter wrote a few weeks ago that Europe had just returned from a vacation from world history. Together, we've entered an era that once again is marked by power and big power politics very openly.
French President Emmanuel Macron backed Merz and said that Europe's traditional security framework based on the old global order is no longer intact and that Europe must be ready for war. Europe is rearming, but we must now go beyond. Europe has to learn to become a geopolitical power. It was not part of our DNA. We conceived ourselves as a political construction to provide peace. We delivered. Second, a single market to provide growth and prosperity. We delivered. Now we have to reform it in this new order. In this new geopolitical environment, Europe has to become a geopolitical power. It's ongoing, but we have to accelerate and clearly deliver all the components of geopolitical power in defense, in technology, and in the de-risking vis-à-vis all the big powers in order to be much more independent. But when I speak about Europe becoming a power, I don't speak about France or Germany becoming a power. I speak about Europe. So we have to think and act as Europeans, I would say, by design. And this is what we have to do now. And if this time of rearmament is a time of dis-synergies, of separation, or national power, it would be a huge mistake. We have to think now power at the European scale. We have to think about our defense, obviously, but we have to reduce our dependencies through policies of European preference. This must be the case for the entire value chain from AI and cloud computing, critical minerals, space, clean tech, as well as defense industries and design of armament. Everywhere we have over-dependencies, we have to de-risk our model and we have to endorse clearly a European preference, targeted, perfectly designed. And I want to thank the Commission for this hard work, but this is a necessity. We will be credible only if we are able to procure and produce what we need without foreign instincts attached.
Bridgewater Associates chief quoted his big cycle theory in a lengthy article on X and said that the world is moving into the most turbulent and difficult phase of a recurring historical trend. The existing fiat monetary order, the domestic political order, and the international geopolitical order are all breaking down. Dalio alarmed that the world is nearing the brink of wars driven by debt burdens, inequality, populism, geopolitical tensions, and climate stress. Tracing back 500 years of history, in his analysis, Dalio describes repeating 50 to 100-year cycles that shift from stability to upheaval. It happens with cleansing storms that reset excesses but bring painful political and power changes. According to Dalio, we are now in the breakdown phase where rules-based systems weaken and might makes right. Dalio describes the US as a tinderbox, and incidents like the Minneapolis federal agent shootings and deep political divides under President Trump could push the country closer to what he calls a more clear civil war. Globally, he sees the US-led order fading as China rises and urged leaders to embrace a multipolar era instead of outdated frameworks. Earlier at the World Government Summit in Dubai, Ray Dalio warned the world is nearing a capital war where nations like the US are weaponizing money through sanctions, trade barriers, and financial leverage.
