About Kevin Zhang
In a February 2025 interview, Kevin Zhang stated that TSMC is "rapidly expanding" its CoWoS (chip-on-wafer-on-substrate) capacity, noting that utilization was around 60% but demand continued to grow. He described plans to increase the interposer size for AI accelerators from roughly 3x the reticle size to 4.5x within two years, and eventually to 8x, to allow integration of up to 12 HBM memory modules. Zhang also said TSMC is expanding quickly in Arizona, with a first 4nm fab entering production the following year and a second and third phase announced.
In a February 2024 presentation, Zhang said the semiconductor industry has achieved over 80x energy efficiency improvement over a little more than a decade, enabling the emergence of AI. He projected that a $1 trillion semiconductor market would drive $3 trillion in electronics, $12 trillion in IT revenue, and over $145 trillion in GDP. Zhang described his move to TSMC seven years earlier as expecting to "sunset" his career, but said he instead sees "a bright golden era" ahead with AI.
Source: AI-verified profile updated from Kevin Zhang's recent appearances.
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Transcript (71 segments)
I
Ian Cutress0:00
Hi everyone and welcome to another of Ian's interviews. We've all been wondering what's happening with process node technology. Are we at a fundamental limit? If we look at the roadmaps of the leading process technology manufacturers today, they'll tell you that they've got roadmaps going out on and on and on. So the question is, is Moore's Law dead or is it still alive? We've seen the advent of chiplets and integrated packaging become this new wave of AI technology to enable what is going to be the future of compute, whether that's high performance computing, machine learning, automotive, or everything else. Joining me today is Dr. Kevin Zhang, SVP of TSMC, a well-known, well-regarded industry veteran. Thank you for joining me on the channel.
K
Kevin Zhang0:47
Pleasure.
I
Ian Cutress0:47
So my first question is that if I go and look at some CEOs giving presentations, they talk about how Moore's Law is dead, the fact that they have to innovate on architecture because they're not getting much from packaging and process node technologies. I speak to other people and they say, oh no, Moore's Law is still alive, we've got roadmaps to 2036. Where's TSMC's position on this?
K
Kevin Zhang1:14
Well, I think my simple answer is I don't care. As long as we can continue to drive the technology scaling, I don't care if Moore's Law is alive or dead. But you know, reality is lots of people narrowly define Moore's Law based on two-dimensional scaling. That's no longer the case. If you look at the innovation in our industry, we actually continue to find a different way to integrate more function, more capability into the small form factor, continue to achieve higher level performance and a higher level of power efficiency. So from that perspective, I think Moore's Law or technology scaling will continue. We will continue to innovate to carry the industry forward.
I
Ian Cutress2:02
So should we redefine Moore's Law? Should we have a new law?
K
Kevin Zhang2:06
That I leave somebody else to define.
I
Ian Cutress2:09
Yeah. So TSMC is known for being very incremental with its process node updates. You'll have a major process node and then minor variations that iterate on a theme to improve power, performance, density before jumping forward with a new family of process nodes. How much of TSMC's success would you attribute to this incremental strategy? Because we're seeing foundries do both, right? We're seeing foundries do both the big jumps. We've got a couple of big jumps coming up in the industry, but TSMC seems very adamant on this, you know, sort of slower cadence.
K
Kevin Zhang2:47
Well, I don't particularly like the word incremental. If you look at our technology roadmap, you know, from 5nm to 3nm, or from 3nm to 2nm, if you look at energy efficient improvement, it's not incremental, over 30% per generation. But in between the major node, we are continue to drive the incremental enhancement. The reason we do that is we allow our customer to continue to harvest each new generation of technology in terms of a scaling benefit. So between major nodes, yes, we continue to drive the incremental, but between the major nodes, actually the enhancement or the power, performance, density improvement is very substantial.
I
Ian Cutress3:36
So is that because when a customer goes into a major node, they obviously have a lot of upfront cost to develop the chip, and then using those, you know, updates to that major node, they can leverage the same, similar, or at least similar designs rather than spending a big bucket of money?
K
Kevin Zhang3:54
Correct. Correct. For example, 5nm, right? After our customer move to 5nm, they can continue to leverage the incremental enhancement from N5 to N5P. When you get the performance boost, then you go to N4, N4P, you can further densify the improvement. So those incremental enhancement after you jump on the major node allow our customer continue to harvest the scaling benefits and the investment they make upfront.
I
Ian Cutress4:24
So how many of those sort of enhancements to a major node end up coming from, you know, internal, you know, outbound design versus inbound customer demand? Do you end up, you know, having a customer saying, I want you, I need you to do this, can you do it on this process node, and then having to go solve that?
K
Kevin Zhang4:45
Well, you know, we work very closely with our customer to pick the right technology node to intercept their product. This is often based on specific product design to see where they can most achieve their optimum device level, the product level benefit. So we work very closely with our customer to make the right choice.
I
Ian Cutress5:08
Yeah. Have you had any surprising requests from customers?
K
Kevin Zhang5:10
No, we don't want surprise customers. We actually work very closely, very open with our customer to make sure they choose the right technology. Remember, we are in a foundry business model. Our goal is really to help customer to achieve successful product. My boss often tell me, Kevin, you know, we're in the foundry business, we work together, we achieve success, but there is a sequence. Customer has to succeed first, then we can be successful.
I
Ian Cutress5:43
Okay. So to that point, we're here at TSMC's EU Tech Symposium. You've just had the US Symposium, there's a few going around the world. And the major announcement, or the two major announcements I guess, is a new major node, A16, and this new Super Power Rail technology also coming in with that generation. What do these bring to the table?
K
Kevin Zhang6:07
Yeah, yeah. So, you know, A16 is a major technology enhancement, or revolutionary, in terms of bringing further power performance to future high performance application, especially targeting for HPC and AI. A16 features nanosheet transistor, which is the industry leading, most advanced transistor architecture. But at the same time, we add a very innovative backside power rail design. This backside power rail design allow design customer to move the power supply routing from the front to the back, open up space, allow to enhance the performance, same time improve the power supply. This is particularly important for very high performance system design because power delivery has become very, very important, critical. We talk about in a small form factor you have to bring close to a few hundred watts, so the IR droop become very, very significant. By moving the power rail to the back side, you actually significantly improve the integrity of the power supply rail. Our approach is very different from the conventional design. The conventional backside power rail basically you just drill a hole, connect the backside metal to the front side metal, you burn space, right? You have to enlarge the footprint of the library cell. But in our design, we have very innovative approach. Essentially we move the contact of transistor, the source of the transistor, to the back without changing the footprint of the library cell. So this clever way allow us to maintain the footprint, provide the maximum flexibility to our customers.
I
Ian Cutress7:54
Does that mean that the traditional manufacturing steps go a little bit out of order in order to enable that? I want to get into this specific process step because our R&D team will not be very happy. But it is very much, you know, a sandwich design: transistors, signal, power. I'm sure you that adds, that would add a lot of cost to the manufacturing.
K
Kevin Zhang8:19
Definitely, definitely will have a cost associated with. But if you look at the density, power, performance benefit, I think it's outweigh the cost. This is particularly important for HPC and AI application where energy efficient compute is the king, is the driver.
I
Ian Cutress8:37
Yeah. So if somebody goes forward and chooses the A16 node, do they have to take the Super Power Rail with it?
K
Kevin Zhang8:42
A16, by definition, will have the backside power, we call Super Power Rail, yes. But we do offer the technology option allow a customer continue to leverage the existing design collateral, don't have to use the backside power. For example, for mobile application, you don't, where the power supply, power routing is not as intense, you don't have to use the backside power rail.
I
Ian Cutress9:13
So normally at these events, whether it's you or your competitors, the announcement comes a few years before production. So where in the timeline are we expecting A16 and Super Power Rail?
K
Kevin Zhang9:25
We're targeting second half of 2026 going into production for our A16 for the lead customers.
I
Ian Cutress9:31
And so does that mean you're sort of like version 0.1 in the PDK right now, or how does that work?
K
Kevin Zhang9:42
Well, I don't think I want to get into detail into collateral schedule, but in general our collateral schedule is designed to target the customer production date introduction. As we said earlier, we target A16 going to production by second half of 2026, so our collateral schedule will support that kind of schedule.
I
Ian Cutress10:08
And we're expecting this all to be manufactured in Taiwan?
K
Kevin Zhang10:10
A16 will start in Taiwan, yeah.
I
Ian Cutress10:13
Yeah. One of the other announcements at the show is actually something I find really impressive because last year you introduced this term called FinFlex, the ability to take N3 and sort of reduce the fin population to decide whether you wanted high performance or high efficiency. And now you're doing this NanoFlex with N2. FinFlex, NanoFlex, it's quite easy to see where you got the name from. But how does NanoFlex differ to what we understand with FinFlex?
K
Kevin Zhang10:45
Yeah, yes, this is a very innovative approach. You probably heard about design technology co-optimization, DTCO. This is where we continue to drive the collaboration between design and technology in order to further optimize our technology offering to provide a better scaling benefit. So FinFlex you mentioned earlier, because in a FinFET transistor architecture, the number of fins is digitized. So in the past, before this innovative FinFlex approach, you have to use either three fin or four fin, you can't swap them easily. So our FinFlex technology at 3nm allow designer to mix and match different fin based library design. But for the nanosheet, we call NanoFlex, this is effectively similar idea, allow the designer to mix and match different height of the library, different sheet width based on the nanosheet width. So you can alternate different size, different height of library, allow design to choose and pick based on specific design target to achieve optimum benefit in terms of power, performance, and density. Very innovative approach.
I
Ian Cutress12:07
So it's still three sheets high, which seems to be an industry standard for now, but you can vary the sheet width, which determine the height of the library. Then that obviously means you have different VT characteristics based on that.
K
Kevin Zhang12:18
That's on top. That's orthogonal to the height of the library. So you can go NanoFlex and VT.
I
Ian Cutress12:29
Yeah. Yes, you do have a lot of options as a designer. You're going to give too many options out, I think that could be a problem. Yeah. Pivoting from that onto packaging, it, you know, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention the fact that TSMC right now, if I can't mention packaging without saying TSMC CoWoS in the same sentence, people get mad if I don't say CoWoS. And I know CoWoS is in high demand. We only have to look at, you know, Nvidia, AMD, Intel, or look at the broadsheets to see that this is being talked about actively in terms of where you guys are on being able to supply what the market needs. How is expansion of CoWoS progressing?
K
Kevin Zhang13:12
First thing first, CoWoS is today the workhorse for AI accelerator. If you look at all the AI accelerator design, pretty much today they all base on TSMC 5nm or 4nm technology plus CoWoS. CoWoS is in high demand, everybody can spell CoWoS these days, even the TV reporter can do that. So obviously last year the AI surge took a lot of people, including ourselves, by surprise. The CoWoS demand has surged tremendously over last year. We are rapidly expanding our CoWoS capacity now. I think the growth we're talking about, well, about 60%, very, very, very high, but still the demand continue to grow. We work very closely with our customer to make sure we provide their most critical need.
I
Ian Cutress14:10
Yeah, but that's the capacity side. CoWoS in terms of capability, we're also expanding our CoWoS capability.
K
Kevin Zhang14:15
If you look at today's state of the art AI accelerator, the CoWoS interposer size roughly about 3x of the reticle size. Reticle size about 800 mm square, so that provide the capability to integrate a full reticle size silicon along with up to 8 HBM. But in the future, just two years from now, we will have the ability to expand the interposer size to 4.5x of the reticle size, allow our customer to integrate up to 12 HBM. We're not going to stop there. Our R&D team already started expanding the CoWoS interposer beyond that to 8x of the reticle size. So very exciting area.
I
Ian Cutress15:03
Yeah, 12 HBM is enough? I keep hearing that people want more, people want more.
K
Kevin Zhang15:07
So that's actually, this symposium we also announce another innovative system level integration technology we call System on Wafer. Essentially you think about it, the maximum size you can do in a wafer processing facility is a wafer, it's a 300mm wafer. So we take the wafer as our base layer, we can bring all the logic and high bandwidth memory together to integrate along the wafer, the whole wafer area. So this, if you measure using CoWoS terms, the number of X of interposer size, it effectively give you 40x of the interposer size. So humongous. So this is really provide our customer to continue to integrate more compute function, more memory bandwidth to address future AI requirement.
I
Ian Cutress16:00
So speaking to that sort of wafer scale, it's very well known that there are, you know, two main companies looking at wafer scale today and they both use you. How much do you assist with the customers on, say, when it comes to, you know, cooling and power management on that side? Does TSMC do any of that?
K
Kevin Zhang16:18
We work very closely with our customer. So we do wafer level integration and the customer obviously have to design the back end, the system level in terms of how to bring the cooling into the system. It obviously involve lots of collaboration. We work very closely with our customer and the system provider to basically work together to find the optimal thermal solution.
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Ian Cutress16:46
This System on Wafer, is it 2026, 27?
K
Kevin Zhang16:49
Well, we already have a limited production, but in the future, as you pointed out, there are going to be more AI high performance customer want to leverage wafer level integration to address their future needs.
I
Ian Cutress17:05
Yeah. And I do have to ask you, you're speaking about, you know, 3x reticle, 4.5 times, and 40 times. In the future, when reticle sizes have to get smaller due to the technology, are we going to be saying, are we going to have to double that number?
K
Kevin Zhang17:21
I hope we don't have to reduce the reticle size because what we see is people want to integrate them all function closely together.
I
Ian Cutress17:33
So does this mean when we're going, you know, getting more efficient process node technology, the demand for compute power is always increasing. You've now, we're now wafer scale level packaging. Where's the limit?
K
Kevin Zhang17:50
Sky is the limit. Sky is the limit. I think we continuous to see the trend, the demand for energy efficient compute, it's just insatiable, right? We're talking about the AI model, ChatGPT model, ChatGPT-4 already use a trillion variable, in the future even more. So think about the computation requirement, it's amazing. So we continue to expand our capability. Transistor level, obviously we have 3nm, next year we're going to 2nm, then we have A16. We continue to drive the energy efficient compute at the transistor level. Same time, sometimes we talk about CoWoS expand and wafer level integration. I think putting all this together, by the way, we also bring the optical signaling into the package, right? So putting all this together, really we're talking about provide customer a platform allow them to integrate more compute function, you know, more memory bandwidths all together to address the future AI requirements.
I
Ian Cutress18:59
So it's interesting you've ordered optical because I've actually had a, you know, a new customer come on board who is optical and for some reason suddenly all these optical companies want to speak to me about their optical solutions and about the future of how that applies in high performance compute but also machine learning. Usually when I speak to those companies they're dealing with your competitors on the optical side. But you guys have been doing optical for a while and you've got this new technology, I want to call it COUPE because I'm British, but Americans call it a COUP, so it's Compact Universal Optical Engine.
K
Kevin Zhang19:42
Stanford. That's how COUPE Stanford. Yeah. So we have been doing silicon photonics for quite some time actually. We fabricate components and our customer put the silicon photonics together with electrical transceiver to form the so-called optical pluggable transceiver, has been widely used in data center. But what we're doing today is we take one step further, leveraging our most advanced 3D stacking technology we call SoIC. Essentially using the hybrid bonding technique to bring the electronic die and photonic die closer together to form a small form factor optical engine. That's where you basically do the electron-photon conversion. We know electron is good at compute, but photon is better when talk about the signaling. So by building this compact optical engine, then we integrate into the advanced packaging, whether it's today's probably the substrate, in the future could leverage something like a CoWoS to bring them together to significantly improve the bandwidth and power efficiency. If you look at today pure copper all electronic system, the switch, 50 terabit switch, it burn over 2,000 watts. By using this tiny, small form factor optical engine, we actually can bring the power down by at least 40%. So this is a very, very efficient in terms of achieve high data bandwidth at the lowest possible power.
I
Ian Cutress21:17
So you'll end up with some customers who want wafer scale and some who want to go optical.
K
Kevin Zhang21:24
Yeah, I think the key is to bring them together because the compute still has to be done by electron.
I
Ian Cutress21:32
Yeah. So in that space, I do see some companies talking about, because you're talking about having two separate chips, the electrical and the optical, and bonding them together with your most advanced hybrid bonding technology. Some companies are saying we actually want all of that on the same chip. Is that something?
K
Kevin Zhang21:49
Yeah, it's difficult to mix a photonic feature on the advanced electronic die. It's difficult to do a monolithic. I think by using our hybrid bonding technique, we achieve the kind of connectivity, power efficiency, like almost like a monolithic, but same time allow us to optimize the electronic die and the photonic die separately. I think this is, you get the best of both sides of the world.
I
Ian Cutress22:23
Yeah. You spoke about pluggable transceivers, you know, for the networking, but obviously what we're talking about here is more about integrated photonics, direct die to die into the package. What about pluggable version of that?
K
Kevin Zhang22:38
The pluggable version today, actually if you look at the data center today, the prevailing way to do this is using pluggable at the board level. So you convert from electron to photon at a board level. So in the future, you convert within die. So the signal coming after the die, you turn electron to photon. So that's where you get the efficiency.
I
Ian Cutress23:02
Yeah. But will that ever be pluggable?
K
Kevin Zhang23:04
It is a pluggable. The optical, the fiber plug into your die.
I
Ian Cutress23:10
Yeah, but you don't want to take it out. You want to leave it in.
K
Kevin Zhang23:12
If it's in, it's in.
I
Ian Cutress23:13
It's in. It'd be remiss if I didn't bring up the fact that I very recently went on a fab tour to see the latest and greatest from ASML, this sort of new High-NA next generation EUV technology. And the company who was there is Intel. You know, they're very forthright in talking about this technology and the fact that they want to be the first to deploy it. If I have you on the channel, I just have to bring up the question because there are some, you know, variable responses from TSMC or quotes in the press about where you guys stand on this sort of High-NA technology. Given what we've said about, you know, industry leading and new packaging and manufacturing technologies, where are you standing on High-NA?
K
Kevin Zhang24:04
Well, maybe let's step back. Let's don't forget TSMC is the leader in terms of bringing EUV into high volume manufacturing back to our 7, 6 nanometer generation. We're the very first in the industry to bring EUV to a high volume manufacturing environment. I think we're still the leader today in terms of EUV use and production efficiency. I think our R&D team will continue to look at it, the new EUV capability including obviously High-NA EUV, and we're going to pick the right place to intercept our technology node. There are lots of factors you have to consider, right? There is obviously the scalability factor, there is also a cost, manufacturability factor. So I trust our R&D team will make the best decision where to choose the next generation EUV to intercept our future technology.
I
Ian Cutress25:06
Yeah. And I guess on that front as well, there are also discussions about, you know, expanding worldwide production, you know, trying to keep it more distributed rather than, you know, the single area in Asia. You guys have announced multiple fabs around the world. How's that progressing?
K
Kevin Zhang25:28
It's progressing very well and very fast too. If you look at our manufacturing footprint, it has expanded quite significantly just over last few years. Obviously you see we are expanding quickly in Arizona site. We build the first fab focusing on 4nm, which we're going to production next year. And then we are building the second fab there and also we are announced phase three, the third fab there. So we're going to continue to bring the most leading node, advanced node to North America. That's where our largest customer base, right? From 4nm to 3nm down to 2nm or even A16 in the future. So that's very exciting. And the same time, we're expanding our specialty technology in both Japan and here in Europe. Right here in Europe. Japan, the Kumamoto project has gone very well. We're going to production, I believe, second half of this year.
I
Ian Cutress26:30
Yeah, oh that's good. Yeah.
K
Kevin Zhang26:32
Yeah. So we're going to bring most advanced MCU, embedded non-volatile memory, which is very important for auto industry, here in Europe to the heartland of the Euro zone.
I
Ian Cutress26:45
Yeah. Does that extend to packaging in any way?
K
Kevin Zhang26:49
Packaging, we are evaluating options, but the same time I think right now we're working closely with our partner to bring up the capability, manufacturing capability in US. Maybe in the future in other places.
I
Ian Cutress27:06
Yeah. I guess one other topic I want to bring up is because we're speaking about AI and machine learning, right? This crazy high demand. Are you seeing that TSMC or, you know, through your customers, that the R&D is pivoting more to catering to those customers because they're in such high, you know, they're so demanding, they want it all tomorrow, right?
K
Kevin Zhang27:28
Well, I think yes, AI is becoming, I think, one of the major technology platform where you consume the most advanced silicon. But don't forget mobile. Mobile continue to be a large volume runner and also mobile require most advanced technology. So we are addressing all the needs. We optimize technology for different application, different segments. So our R&D work very closely with different customer, different application. So I think this is something very exciting. We are continue to drive our technology customization to address the future product needs.
I
Ian Cutress28:11
Yeah. So I mentioned that, you know, it's the symposium here in Europe. What conversations are you expecting to have today and tomorrow?
K
Kevin Zhang28:23
Well, aside from me, we want to hear customers. We want to hear what they would need in the future for their product. Foundry business is very, very important to work closely with customer. We want to hear what customers expectation and their product needs, and so we can develop the right technology to address our customer need. Foundry business is a service business. It's very, very important to connect, always stay connected with your customers.
I
Ian Cutress29:00
Yeah, that's awesome. Well, good luck.
K
Kevin Zhang29:03
Thank you. Yeah, it's a pleasure, pleasure talking to you.