For Friday, February 27th, it's Brew Markets Daily and I'm Amber Bryan. Anxiety around AI is on the rise. Or actually, it's just risen among software investors watching sector stocks sell off. Among white collar employees wondering if they will be displaced. Among young people who've not yet entered the workforce, but are asking fearfully which options will be there when they do. Well, for a positive outlook on building careers today, almost an antidote to these fears, renowned venture capitalist Bill Gurley wrote his new book, Running Down a Dream. And we welcome Bill to the show to break down how the pillars that he advocates for, passion, curiosity, lifelong learning, peer and mental networking, going to where the action is, and to talk about how these have manifested in public company leaders. We discuss founder CEOs and their company stock price performances. How Satya Nadella reframed the value of learning to turn Microsoft around. Why Elon Musk's range across multiple industries defies leadership norms but indicates one replicable secret to long-term success. How the best CEOs don't delegate curiosity about industry and competitive changes. And why the likes of the PayPal and Amazon mafias, groups of peer alums, have gone on to do extraordinary things. And we go beyond the book for Bill's insights into the market today. A general partner at Benchmark, a leading Silicon Valley venture capital firm, Bill has invested in and served on the boards of such companies as Nextdoor, OpenTable, and Uber. And today, he still serves on the board of Stitch Fix, ticker SFIX, and Zillow, the NASDAQ listed real estate innovator. For more than two decades, he's written about technology on his popular blog, Above the Crowd, and on his social media accounts. So, we sit down in studio. Bill was in from Austin, Texas, and we talk about the industrialization of venture capital, why fewer big tech winners are going public, and how IPOs need to change to work for retail investors. That conversation in just a moment, but first, a word from our sponsor, Charles Schwab. Trading at Schwab is powered by a trade, unlocking the power of Thinkorswim, the award-winning trading platforms loaded with features that let you dive deeper into the market. You can visualize your trades in a new light on Thinkorswim desktop with robust charting and analysis tools.
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And now my conversation with Bill Gurley. Bill Gurley, thank you for joining. Looking very smart and suited up fresh off the set at CNBC this morning.
Yeah, I told my wife I don't normally wear suits, but I'm going to today.
Well, here it is. So, we've got it in the Brew Markets studio. Well, you've got this fantastic new book out which I absolutely devoured over the weekend. It's called Running Down a Dream. A reference, I think, to Tom Petty. There's a shrug in the studio. Maybe so. Maybe no. And it's all about finding one's passion and trying to build a career that is founded in passion and most importantly curiosity which is a big learning I took from your book. Talk to us about that curiosity and how it fuels long-term commitment to a path.
Well, I think in order to really differentiate yourself in a field, you need to be a lifelong learner. You have to keep wanting to learn. I think a lot of these kids have so much pressure on them when they get all the way through college and they're grinding so hard. They're like, 'Woo, I don't have to learn anymore,' and they go off into the workplace, but it's the wrong attitude. The best, and we have profiles, deep dives on nine different careers where people started at the bottom, they all are constant continuous learners. The reason this matters to what you just asked is in order to be able to do that without it feeling like a grind, you like being in that flow state that you read about, you have to really be curious about it. You have to care about it. Like if there's something new that pops up in your field, you just consume it naturally without even thinking. And all the best that really love what they do have that skill set. And it's hard.
It's hard. And you called it a skill set which is sort of interesting as opposed to the sort of natural thing that courses through people's sort of veins. And do you think is do you think that learning to love learning is something that can be taught or do you think it's innate? Where do you think it comes from? It could possibly be taught and so many of the greats, you know, whether Buffett to I just saw a long podcast with Tobi from Shopify and like if you give one piece of advice, what would it be? And they all say read, read, read, read. And I do fear that in this short attention span world we're in that the children read fewer books. They do get more information from podcasts and those kind of things. So learning doesn't have to be, you know, one-dimensional as in a book. But you know I read almost none until I got to graduate school and then a bit flip for me. So I would like to think that that could be true of anyone. And once I started consuming books it became addictive and I'm still a vast reader today. At the back of my book is a list of I think 35 books that I recommend to other people. So, I think I hope I'd like to hope you could learn to learn, but the learning I'm talking about like if you've identified your real obsession, it doesn't even feel like learning like it's not something they'd have to teach you to do. Because it would just come naturally. If you watch these interviews with Magnus Carlsen, he says, you know, he says, I hate grinding through exercises, but I love learning about my craft. And he's read all these history books on chess like he devours the information but on his own terms.
You know that idea that someone has that hunger for learning and perfecting their craft over time when we think about that transferability from a markets perspective Bill I really thought about public company CEOs just sort of bring it to that space for a bit those who are founder run and those that are not and there was some interesting data on this there are some papers out there that suggest that founder-led companies have outperformed the S&P 500 significantly in recent years. A lot of that being tech, which of course is the field that you're a leader in. You know, Amazon, Tesla, Nvidia, Meta, Shopify, Applovin. Do you have a perspective on that?
I think founders are unbelievably determined about what they're doing. In fact, one time I asked Bezos how he was such a good angel investor when he's obviously busy running one of the largest companies in the world. And he said, 'I only look for one thing. I want to know that this person's going to go do this thing come hell or high water, whether I invest or not.' And so you have this determinism, but I think that determinism also drives learning and curiosity about what they're doing. So any, you know, I was just listening to Bret Taylor talk about Sierra, this new AI company that he's running, and he obviously has spent the past three years repotting himself as an AI executive. Like he's out there every day testing what's possible, studying what's possible, and all the great founders do that. You know, there's a great book, The Innovator's Dilemma, that explains how founders disrupt other industries. And the key thing that enables that is when a new wave comes along, they are on the front of understanding it and what's possible and how to use it. And that's the skill set that allows them to be successful.
Do you think that skill set is going to be table stakes in a world in which AI is causing so much anxiety about how to get a career and keep one?
I do. And I would offer you what to me is a stark contrast and almost this ironic reality where if you don't really love your job and you just kind of dial it in every day and I think I fear there's a lot of people in that situation, most people.
Yeah. We found this Gallup poll from 2023 that said it was over 50% of people who aren't engaged at work. That's where the term quiet quitting came from.
Then I think you're really at risk because you're not pushing to understand what it's going to mean to be in your role in the future 10 years from now. This AI is a new technology no different than really than a computer or other technologies that have come along and you need to be proficient in it no matter what role you're in. And the people that are hyper curious I think are already figuring that out. Like the minute it popped up, they were playing around with it and they are the ones who know in each and every industry what it's capable of because they're out there testing it every day. And so I think if you're able to put yourself on a custom career path where you're really chasing your craft almost the way an artisan would, then I think AI is a superpower. Like it's the flip of that person who may be dialing it in and not trying because all of a sudden I can go accomplish more than I ever could have before. I can learn faster. Like there's one just truism today. You can learn faster about anything than at any point in history before us. And you know the internet brought us Wikipedia but AI is just completely different. And we of course we have podcasts and YouTube interviews like you can study now any topic faster like way faster than you ever could in the past and that should be like super interesting to someone who wants to get ahead but you have to have this proactive mindset that I'm trying to win.
You have a very positive outlook on it, right? And there are other voices out there, Bill, who've said something similar, not quite as articulately perhaps, which is use this as a tool and you can turbocharge ahead, but if you take a look at the employment figures, folks coming out of school right now or earlier in their careers are seeing particularly high levels of unemployment and because employers are saying everything that you've just described, hey, guess what? Current employees, go do that. But it means that there going to be fewer jobs and openings available for the next generation coming up.
Yeah, my book wasn't written as an antidote to AI unemployment at large, but I would say that well, I want to back up real quick. I do fear that the evolution of the college career matriculation has gotten really really grindy and we start worrying about kids getting into college in like the sixth grade. Jonathan Haidt calls it the resume arms race. And we start packing their day and their schedule with chess lessons and cello lessons and lacrosse lessons and volunteering at the SPCA and because we're all worried about them getting into school. It's all well intended, but it becomes very grindy and there's not a lot of time for play or creative, you know, and or really trying to identify the thing that you're passionate about. And others have talked about this. Rick Rubin's talked about it. Haidt has talked about it and I fear that the kids are taught to grind and also, you know, years ago they wouldn't let you declare a major until the end of your sophomore year. Now, you have to apply to a major at many schools. So, like England, that was what I grew up with. So, you're moving from, you know, making that decision when you're 20 to when you're 17. And a lot of these kids have no idea what it is that they really want to go do and they need time to explore and learn. So anyway, I worry that's part of the problem because you get out and you're exhausted and you're not thinking about this as something that could be fun. You're thinking about this as a drudgery. And so anyway, I think that's also part of the problem. So I would just say if you're looking for I'm not going to say this book will solve all unemployment problems. It's not why I wrote it. But if you're looking for an alternate path to that grind and something that might give you a little inspiration and motivation and the methodology, by the way, to make it work, I would give this a shot. Like this is a good alternative to the traditional path.
You know, there was something you said in there, Bill, just now and also in your book, which is about AI's ability to accelerate learning. And you talk about how people who are very successful, even while they're senior and successful, keep on digging actually into details. Now, there's one piece I want to read from your book. He wrote, 'Long after he was already successful, J.D. Rockefeller continued studying every element of the oil business from the roughnecks pumping it to the pipelines and train systems carrying it, including tedious examinations of his competitors' businesses.' I hear your Texas drawl by the way, and I read that quote, and it also came together for me. But that I think, you know, look, I remember I'm just going to I went to get my MBA, right? That's why I came here to go to grad school. And there was this kind of philosophy that you grind away to your point and then you reach a certain level of seniority CEO and then you sort of become strategic. Right. You sort of become hands-off and big picture and high level and strategic. And you've just described someone who probably was but was informed by attention to detail and the learning that that took. Just talk about what you see in terms of the kinds of leaders particularly public companies.
Yeah. So you know I was on a podcast we were interviewing Satya Nadella at Microsoft and I think it's hard to put what Satya has accomplished in context because it's such an outlier to go most companies once they get big and have had an extended period of degrowth like where they really slow down they never come back like they never get back to glory and I think that's just considered a truism. And here he comes along and takes over a company that's 40 years old and is able to get it going again in a vibrant way. And it's truly remarkable. It's probably the best turnaround story, you know, other than maybe Jobs going to Apple, those two. But to be at that level and so you ask how does it work? How did he do it? And what he says is that he believed the company had become a know-it-all culture where every single person felt like they were an expert and no one had the humility to ask, you know, what might I not know? And he told everyone, 'We're going to change it from a know-it-all culture to a learn-it-all culture.' And a big part of my thesis in this book is you have to be obsessed with continuous learning to stand atop your field. And it's amazing that he could transition a culture in that way so quickly, you know, and it's super impressive.
You also talk in your book, Bill, about how learning shouldn't just be limited to one's own field. You say perfect your craft, but also be a citizen of the world. Be out there and learn from other places. Talk about that.
Yeah, so the person that probably I think developed that theory the best is David Epstein with his book Range. But it turns out that a lot of the most interesting innovations come from people who weren't in that field forever. It's people that transitioned into that field from other places and brought mental models that were different because there's group think that gets stuck in one place. I think it's a bit of an elevated assignment just for your listeners. Like it's harder to go listen to a talk about something that's in a field different than yours and pull out the nuggets because you have to sift through the noise a little bit. But if you find them, I think there's quite a bit of history and David went through so many examples where it could be a really big unlock and a differentiator, right? Because other people aren't doing that. So I found that to be remarkably rewarding myself. It's one of the reasons I'm involved with the Santa Fe Institute. It's very committed to interdisciplinary work. A lot of the colleges by the way and universities are creating more kind of cross-discipline institutes for this reason.
It's interesting because listening to that description, I couldn't help but think of Elon Musk. And I read Walter Isaacson's biography of him, right? And there's this one part that really struck me where he sort of pulls SWAT teams out from SpaceX to go solve something at Tesla or from Tesla to go solve something at X when he first took over Twitter. What's your perspective on that? Because lots of CEOs are actually not given permission to spend their time in a multidisciplinary way like that. He's maybe an extreme example.
Yeah. Well, I mean, in his famous Stanford graduation speech, Steve Jobs makes this argument like it's almost hard to believe that a calligraphy course in college that he took had a massive impact on the first version of the Mac. So, that's a very extreme example of the same thing. I read that Isaacson book, you know, he's talking and he's talked since then in several podcasts about this decision to use stainless steel at SpaceX. And you know he's podcasters interview him. How do you know how to do that? And he said well you know I had a little experience with stainless steel over at Tesla. So yeah he has frequently talked about borrowing from one and taking it to another. I'm not sure that most CEOs have either the mental capacity or the energy to do multiple companies simultaneously. So I don't know if we can go recommend it for everybody.
Well, but you've been in the position of hiring CEOs or leads, you know, senior leaders in companies, private or in preparation for their own IPOs, board members. Do you practice what you preach or what you've been inspired?
I think it's certainly a really great idea from a board perspective to put people that have different expertise and disciplines on the board so that they can have this type of effect on helping to lead the company and that is a common practice.
I want to talk a bit more about one other suggestion or principle in the book which is to go where the action is. Right. And that resonated with me because I was in London. I knew I wanted a career in finance and I was like I've got to go to New York center of the globe and I turned over.
The exact same thing in 1993.
Yeah. You that was it. Go where it's happening. In the digital world there has been a lot of talk about democratization of access. And AI frankly would be the next incarnation of it, right? Do you still have the perspective that going geographically where the...
Yeah. And I'll tell you why. But you just said something that I want to double click on. You know, you talked about like your ability to have access is easier than ever before. So identifying both peers and mentors and people that you could learn from and even the ability to connect to them either through something like you know X's DM feature or in a Reddit subgroup or whatever like that's never been easier either. So two of my core principles are learning, you know, learning as much as you can and connecting with peers and mentors. Both of those are easier than they've ever been. And this is where I'm trying to paint some optimism on to where this stuff's taking us. But no, I fundamentally believe that if you are certain what you want to do, if that industry has an epicenter then and you have the wherewithal to get there, which is not some people obviously have commitments that don't allow that, you should absolutely go to the epicenter. I think most humans have this innate fear. They make two things that I think are wrong. They have an innate fear that it'll be overly competitive, so they won't be able to stand out. And then they also talk themselves into this idea that it'll be okay to be a big fish in a small pond, which I disagree with both of them.
