Vishal Sikka1:23:00
Good morning, thank you so much, and welcome to Huawei Connect. The buzz here is all about AI. It is amazing to see this, to see the future that we are looking at with intelligent systems. So I want to take some time this morning to build on Eric's and Wang Tao's talk and talk to you about the great waves that are ahead of us, the waves of intelligent systems, waves of artificial intelligence, and how do we ride these waves.
How do we not only not let these waves become disruptive to us, but indeed have the fun, have the achievement of riding the great wave ahead? Eric briefly talked about this. AI has been around for a long time. In fact, humanity's fascination with intelligent systems goes back centuries. But the field of artificial intelligence started in 1956, led by these two gentlemen, Marvin Minsky and John McCarthy, at the famous conference in Dartmouth.
In the early days, in the first couple of decades of AI, a lot of breakthrough work happened. You see some examples here. The gentleman in the middle is Arthur Samuel, who wrote the first machine learning program that was using machine learning to play checkers, to play Go. A couple of years ago, when AlphaGo defeated the world champion of Go, there was big news. But indeed, Arthur Samuel had built a machine learning program to play Go in the late 1950s and early 1960s.
Right next to that, you see the first mobile robot called Shakey, that was built at Stanford and SRI. And below that, you see a picture of Marvin Minsky's own PhD thesis. This was one of the first neural networks, a physical neural network built before transistor technology, called SNARC, which was used to solve maze puzzles. And of course, on the furthest right is Frank Rosenblatt's original perceptrons implementation, also in the 1950s.
And then these two papers are papers that I wrote. The first one is a paper that I wrote when I was an intern at Intel's Artificial Intelligence lab in the early 90s. And the last one is my own PhD thesis, a one page from that. My PhD thesis in AI at Stanford was in integrating specialized procedures like neural networks and other specialist reasoners into a logic-based proof system.
So in the early days of AI, there was a lot of focus on broad application of AI and the representational aspects of AI, to be able to represent concepts using AI. And Eric referred to this, there were a couple of AI winters that followed, where a lack of success in AI led to some disillusionment, some disappointment.
But in the last five years, we have seen tremendous interest driven by some breakthrough achievements. And there are many examples of these achievements here. You see facial recognition done at very wide scale. This is a picture of a level 4 autonomous vehicle that Baidu just launched. I took a picture of today's SQuAD 2.0 leaderboard, and natural language processing systems are routinely now able to come close to human performance even in SQuAD 2.0.
SQuAD 2.0 is a natural language benchmark. The original SQuAD benchmark had human performance, there was a simpler benchmark, but the human performance in that was already routinely exceeded by autonomous systems, natural language processing systems. So now the SQuAD 2.0 benchmark is a more sophisticated reading comprehension benchmark, and already again we see systems, and there is a paper from Microsoft Research, and Dr. Hau will talk right after me, about how natural language processing systems are now able to get close to human performance.
So there is a tremendous interest, a tremendous set of achievements that have happened in the last five years. And these are a result of three factors. And the first one is advances in some techniques, primarily based on neural networks. And I showed you an example of Rosenblatt's perceptrons that was built in the 1950s. The deep neural networks, which are massive in size, augmented by techniques like convolutional neural networks for vision and image processing, and recurrent neural networks based on that are used for speech and language processing. These have led to some breakthrough results.
But really, the results are also as much a factor of the massive improvement in computing capacity that has happened over the last few decades. The computers today, and Eric talked about this, the Ascend chip with 256 teraflops of operation, this is unthinkable probably when Rosenblatt built his perceptron. The entire world's computing capacity put together was not 256 teraflops.
And so this combination of the advances in techniques, the advances in computing, and the availability of large amounts of data has led to a lot of these breakthrough achievements in artificial intelligence in the last, I would say, five or six years. And that has led to a huge set of opportunities. Today, there are several thousand startup companies funded by billions of dollars in venture capital that are addressing different parts of the overall AI spectrum.
And within the enterprise as well, when we think about this, we realize that every single industry can go through a significant transformation led by AI. In every industry, customer engagement, our ability to understand what customers are doing, to engage with what customers are doing, can be dramatically transformed using AI. AI can be the eyes, the ears, the voice of an enterprise to the customer.
And in the back-office, significant operational efficiency, operation simplification, and automation can be achieved by using AI. From simplifying many of the core processes which are labor-intensive, to in asset-heavy industries, simplifying the tasks of maintenance, asset maintenance, predictive maintenance, being able to bring a dramatic new efficiency to that.
If you think about the oil and gas industry, for example, the task of upstream exploration, efficient and less disruptive exploration can be dramatically enhanced using AI, where you're analyzing massive amounts of data coming from seismic data generation. And today, there are thousands of physicists and mathematicians who analyze data coming from these seismic events to understand where the oil or where the gas is. This process can be dramatically amplified and simplified using AI.
And similarly, the act of exploration, once you have identified where the resources are, then the act of exploring and digging and getting to that, the execution of that can be simplified with AI. And of course, the task of maintaining complex machinery in remote areas can be dramatically improved by using AI techniques. We all know about consumer applications, but in every single industry, these kinds of applications exist.
And yet, despite all this interest and despite all this excitement and opportunity, there are still significant and structural limitations that we see in AI technology. When Sean talked about this, it is still early days, and despite decades of work, we are still in the early stages of AI. And there are significant limitations that are still in front of us.
We see lots of examples, some famous examples that have happened recently, of autonomous driving not quite doing its job, famous examples of misidentification and mislabeling and so forth. There in the middle, there is a very interesting paper that was just published. It's called 'The Elephant in the Room,' where the authors actually put a picture of an elephant inside a room, and then dropping a picture of an elephant changes the identification of all the objects that are in this picture.
And of course, as humans, we can immediately recognize that there is an elephant in this room, and it is impossible for there to be an elephant in this room. And yet, of course, these neural systems don't have a way to model the world in this way, to understand the semantics of the world in this way. I mentioned earlier that in the early days, AI used to be a lot more about representation and about inference. Even though we have seen dramatic progress in the last few years, we have actually not quite cracked many of these fundamental problems around being able to understand, articulate, and reason about the world. And these are essential qualities for enterprise AI.
So when we look at the emerging stack for AI in the enterprise, we see three distinct layers. We see the hardware, where Moore's Law, which has been the guiding force behind the development of hardware over the last 52 or 53 years, has now more or less come to a stop. I was reading this interview with David Patterson, who won the Turing Award last year, where he talked about the fact that if Moore's Law was still continuing, we would be a factor of 15 ahead of where we are. So in the last few years, Moore's Law has significantly slowed down.
And the slowdown of Moore's Law has led to the opportunity to build new kinds of hardware, domain-specific hardware, AI-specific hardware, to continue the dramatic advances. And then around that, the availability of systems and cloud is creating an opportunity to build AI-specific hardware systems. And the layer above this is the layer of software, where you have two distinct categories: the engines like TensorFlow or Caffe or MXNet and so forth, PyTorch, and the layer above that of the developer experience, of the platform and the tools and the software ecosystems.
And then finally, the top is the layer of AI applications and AI services. And when we look at the opportunities and the gaps in this stack, we see that while there is tremendous opportunity, and the simple way to look at the opportunities, we have the opportunity to transform enterprises in every industry. Why? A really great enterprise AI platform that would deliver a seamless developer experience to build multifaceted enterprise-class applications on an underlying hardware platform that would deliver a full-stack experience that was integrated and yet open and high-performing, that continues to be the great opportunity.
But when I think about the current reality against this stack, we still see that there are significant gaps. When it comes to services and application building, there is a lot of, I mentioned earlier, thousands of startups, and many of them are building applications. But these applications are still scratching the surface of what is possible. The applications are not connected, they are point solutions, they are not interconnected, they are not interoperable, they are not a part of a shared common platform.
There is still a massive shortage of AI talent. As we speak today, there are maybe 300,000 trained machine learning engineers in the world, and this number needs to be in the tens of millions in the time ahead. The availability of services is still quite weak. Long-term, mature AI enterprise concepts like lifecycle management are still not there in the AI stack.
And when we think about the developer experience, the developer experience today is quite broken. There are many frameworks and engines, I mentioned some of them, but our ability to build an application today is still very fragmented. I have tried to do this myself. I have observed developers building applications, going from identifying the problem, finding the sponsors, getting the budget, getting the governance right, to getting the data, making sure the data is labeled, making sure there is governance around the data, making sure that the data is secure, its lineage is well established, cleansing it and so forth.
Getting the hardware, hardware is a crucial issue, and Eric alluded to this in his speech. There are huge differences in price-performance when we make hardware choices. On the one hand, we have elasticity that we need in order to scale our delivery of AI systems up and down, and on the other hand, we have the cost-performance, which can be dramatically different depending on what kind of a hardware choice we make. And then that is sometimes at odds with openness, because making a cloud choice gets us locked in to that cloud choice.
So how do we navigate when it comes to hardware, this choice between elasticity on the one hand, the price-performance on the other hand, and openness on the third hand? And then once we have done that, is the actual task of building the application, identifying the software tools, finding the experts, trying out the tools, getting around the fact that many of these tools are still opaque, they are not transparent, they are not explainable. We have to understand, are we doing the right thing? Are we going to, under the right circumstances, be able to use the right tools?
And then finally, lifecycle management. Once we have built and deployed the application, how will it survive? How will it evolve as the data evolves, as our business process evolves, as the data sources evolve, as people leave? How do we transfer the knowledge of what is inside this system? So we need an AI platform that has the ability to deliver a seamless experience across these kinds of steps, and today we don't have that.
And of course, finally, the hardware, I already talked about it. Again, there we have this trade-off between the elasticity on the one hand, the price-performance on the other hand. So what we really need for the times ahead to deliver the full potential of AI is a partner that can help us take, that can help us deliver this kind of a full stack across the six layers and deliver both on the one hand the economics, but on the other hand the performance and the flexibility. Can we go to the next slide, please?
So we need a new approach. We need a new partner who can help us understand and ride these great waves. Can we go to the next slide, please? A partner who can help us understand, who understands the business and the enterprise complexity. A partner who on the one hand understands the AI and what it can mean for us in the enterprise and can deal with the rapid evolution of the field that is going to happen in the near future. Who understands the limitations of the technology as well as the opportunities and can translate that into solutions.
Who can deliver these solutions across the stack, a full-stack solution, and the cost-performance of the full-stack solution to help us deliver an enlightened enterprise. I was really happy to see, I was looking forward to seeing what Huawei has to announce today, and I was very happy to see the announcement of, on the one hand, the Ascend microprocessor, that is the first AI-specific chip that Huawei has released, and the incredible performance and the AI-native CANN programming model on top of this to build optimizations.
You know, Python code, a lot of AI applications are written in Python. We can actually deliver a thousand times improvement in Python execution by optimizing it into the AI hardware. And then, of course, the MindSpore libraries for building AI applications, and then the ModelArts programming model and the developer framework for a great developer that is integrated. I believe that Huawei has done a wonderful job in creating such an open stack as well as a full-stack experience across the board.
People often ask me, what is the future of enterprises with AI? What happens to jobs? What happens to the skills issues and so forth? And my own sense is that if we look back over the last several decades, as well as even before that, going up to the Industrial Revolution, about how automation has helped us transform ourselves using these tools, I think an enterprise can achieve the same kind of benefit by the use of automation, by the use of intelligence, by the use of AI.
As systems become more intelligent, enterprises can become more enlightened. AI can help us focus and find our own wisdoms much more effectively by taking away the things that can be well-defined, that can be well-prescribed, and automating those. We are free to pursue our own unique wisdom, to pursue our humanity. And the same thing applies to enterprises. In enterprises, intelligent systems go hand in hand with the enterprise's ability to become intelligent, to become enlightened, and go a step beyond being intelligent into delivering our own creativity, our own innovations, our own ability to invent the future.
I think AI, like any great technology, like any powerful technology, can be a disruptive force, or it can be a great force for helping us improve our future. It can be a force for us to help us, a wonderful way to build our products and solutions to serve our markets, to serve our customers. And it is that purposeful AI that I am interested in pursuing. I believe that in the times ahead, AI is going to offer a great set of new waves. And just like in surfing, when we see a great wave, we can either get wiped out by it, or we can learn to ride it.
In fact, 'hang ten' refers to the act of hanging our ten toes over the surfboard, meaning learning to ride a wave so smoothly, so efficiently, so effectively that we have the freedom to actually put our toes on top of the board and hang ten. And I hope that at this Huawei Connect, you are able to really learn about all the different AI solutions and technologies that can help us to ride and hang ten on the great waves ahead. Thank you very much.