Elon Musk43:07
Hey guys, welcome, welcome to the Tesla shareholder meeting. And I just want to start off by saying, 'Hot damn, I love you guys!' Yeah, we have the most awesome shareholder base. I mean, it's just incredible. Any public company, it's incredible. Wow. So, and you know, we've got a great sort of shareholder meeting here to recap the achievements of the company and tell you about where we're going. And it's, I think it's incredible. I think we're not just opening a new chapter for Tesla, we're starting a new book. Okay. So those of you who have been following Tesla closely understand, like, you get it, you know. And so, like, the important thing is you get it. I mean, it's, so the, yeah, where things are going, I think, is just going to be absolutely mind-blowing. You know, we're obviously making great progress in solving the sustainable energy problem, you know, with electric vehicles, with stationary storage, with solar. And then in terms of the value of the company, autonomy is just such a mind-blowing thing that, like I said, you guys understand, but I think most of the world does not yet understand. So, and you know, in talking to a lot of the sort of big institutional investors, when they're often in like New York and they don't drive cars, so I'll be like, 'Have you driven our car or have you tried self-driving, you know, the version 12.3?' And they're like, 'Oh no.' Okay, well, you should try it. That would be a good thing to do. And if you just plot the points on the curve of how well autonomy is progressing and just believe the curve, it's headed towards unsupervised full self-driving very quickly at an exponential pace. If you just, if you just, yeah, it's, it's, I mean, yeah. So it's, it's, it's really as simple as that. And in fact, I'd invite you to just do it personally. Just say, okay, with each release, how many miles do you drive before you have to intervene? It's, it's, it's like literally that simple. And with each release, you'll see it. There's a big improvement, big improvement, and it looks like an exponential. So, and it's very clear that that will actually go to the point where it is actually far safer than a person driving the car. So, and I have some insight into, you know, the next releases because we've got basically for every release that's on the road, we kind of see what the next generation release is and a little bit about the release after that. So we have some insight into where it's going, and it's really amazing. No question whatsoever that will far exceed human safety. Yeah, no question. So, and I think, you know, I have mentioned this, but like sometimes it's helpful to sort of reiterate and connect some of the dots. Because so sometimes people wonder, well, how do you go from this big fleet to actually monetizing the fleet in an autonomous situation? And it's actually a combination of like, it's like Airbnb and Uber to some degree. So like, there'll be some cars that Tesla owns itself, it's kind of like an Uber fashion. But then for the fleet that is owned by our customers, it will be like an Airbnb thing. You can add or subtract your car to the fleet whenever you want. So you can say like, 'I'm going away for a week,' at just one tap on your Tesla app, your car gets added to the fleet and it just makes money for you while you're gone. Yeah, so you can say you can add it to the fleet for a few hours, for a few days, for a few weeks. Whenever you want it back, you can say 'come back' and the car will come right back. And I'm highly confident that it will far exceed the value of, like, the revenue made by the owner of the car will far exceed the actual monthly payment. And then Tesla will obviously take a rev share on that, but most of the money will go to the owner of the car. And this is actually going to work. This is what will happen. So, I mean, mark my words, this is simply a matter of time. Now, admittedly, I'm a little optimistic sometimes. You know, I don't have complete lack of self-awareness. But if I wasn't optimistic, this wouldn't exist. This factory wouldn't exist, you know. So, you know, that's what my brother, who's awesome, was here, just got re-elected. No, sorry, this thing. So it's like a little anecdote. Like when we were kids in school, my brother would tell me the wrong time for the bus so that I wouldn't miss the bus. And then I'd be upset with him, like, 'Why did you tell me the bus was going to come earlier than it was?' And he's like, 'Well, because otherwise you'd be late for the bus.' This is an actual thing that would happen. So I guess I've been sort of pathologically optimistic from birth. But that's the reason all this stuff is happening anyway. It's like I got to be somewhat pathologically optimistic, but I do deliver in the end. That's the important thing. So, yeah, and it's really just going to be something else. I've mentioned this before, but for ARK Invest, I'd recommend reading the ARK Invest analysis. That's the most accurate, there may be, you know, more accurate ones, but the most accurate sort of analysis of the potential of autonomy, the most accurate that I'm aware of, is Cathie Wood's ARK Invest. So, and if I recall correctly, they predicted somewhere over a $5 trillion valuation for Tesla just based on vehicle autonomy, not counting Optimus. Yeah, yeah, I agree with that. So, I think just based on vehicle autonomy, we can 10x the value of the company. I believe that what will happen. Hey, you know, it's just, what do you know, it's 4:20.
I think that's actually pretty accurate, but it actually gets way crazier when you think about the Optimus robot, which is really a humanoid robot that is intended to be able to do anything you want it to do. It can be your companion, it can be at your house, it can sort of babysit your kids, it could be a teacher, it can do factory stuff. I think the ultimate ratio of how many super useful humanoid helper droids do you want? Like who doesn't want a C-3PO? But a C-3PO plus R-2-D2 plus... it would be pretty awesome. I think everyone in the world is going to want one, literally everyone. And then there'll be obviously robots in industry making stuff. So I think the ratio of humanoid robots to humans will probably be at least two to one, something like that, one to one for sure. Which means somewhere on the order of 10 billion humanoid robots, maybe 20 or 30. And so then it's like, okay, well let's say you kind of make... I think the build rate will be probably something ultimately like a billion a year humanoid robots, actually. And if Tesla just has a 10% share of that, it might be a lot more than 10%. And we make like 100 million Optimus units a year. Just for reference, the auto industry is roughly 100 million vehicles per year, so similar, at least within an order of magnitude. And I think we could make one for a cost of maybe at really high scale of about $10,000. It's smaller, it'll be less expensive than a car. And I think if you sold it for $20,000 or something, this is at large scale volume, Tesla would basically make about a trillion dollars of profit a year from that.
Yeah, if the price-earning multiple is say, I don't know, 20 or 25, something like that, that would mean a $20 trillion market cap from Optimus alone. And probably five to 10 from autonomous vehicles. So I think it's actually conceivable, it's within the realm of possibility for Tesla to achieve a valuation 10 times that of the most valuable company today.
So when I say this is like we're starting a new book, I mean it's going to be the best book, next level, next, next, next, next level. Now we need to make sure these robots are nice to us, and that's very important. Yeah, so anyway, with that let me get into the presentation. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Oh man, I think it might be worth us just putting a word limit on future shareholder Tesla proposals. It's like you can't have a novel length, you know, it's current... we can't have a whole novel as a Tesla shareholder proposal. So anyway, as you can see our impact is accelerating. We're starting to make a real noticeable dent in carbon emissions. So we're really making a lot of progress towards achieving our goal of sustainability. And one of the effects of autonomy is actually going to be an even greater effect on carbon emissions because I suspect that we'll go from passenger cars having about 10 hours of usage per week, about an hour and a half per day, to probably a third of the hours in the week, maybe 50, 55 hours. Which means the same car will be used five times more often. So you need a certain amount of resources to make the car, but it'll have five times the usage in my opinion. I think that's quite likely, which will be an even more dramatic impact on carbon emissions. So we care a lot about sustainable manufacturing. Our factories are beautiful. Like you walk around the factory, it's actually, contrary to what you're reading in the press, it's like a good vibe in the factory. Like people are smiling and happy, it's nice.
So yeah, I mean we do care, we actually do care a lot at Tesla about doing the right thing. And we're not going to be perfect, but we do care a lot about doing the right thing. So our vehicles are water efficient, energy efficient. We try when possible to use renewables for powering the factory and do our best to do the right thing. Our batteries are lasting a lot longer. I got too many things in my hand. Anyway, the batteries are lasting a lot longer, which is good. Safety is as good in the factory. We're improving the affordability of EVs. You know, Model Y is comparable to a BMW X3, but its actual cost of ownership on a monthly basis is much lower. We were number one in EVs globally last year.
Yeah, so let's see. Congrats to the Tesla team on making six million vehicles all time. So I mean the Tesla fleet is really becoming very substantial. I mean it's going to be 7 million vehicles by the end of this year, over 7 million vehicles. So we have... and our factory in Fremont is currently the highest volume auto factory in North America. And we broke the prior production record from when it was NUMI. So it's actually pretty wild. We have a giant car factory in the San Francisco Bay Area. It's not exactly the cheapest place to have a car factory. It's like that and the Swiss Alps or something. But we still manage to make great cars at high volume, and that's a testament to the great team we've got in Fremont. So congrats to the Fremont team.
And a lot of people were saying the Cybertruck is like fake, it's never going to come out. And now we're shipping a lot of Cybertrucks. We had a weekly record of 1,300. So, and you know, I think with the Cybertruck, it really is something special. People sometimes have different opinions on the Cybertruck, but if you really want to know if something is cool, if it's a great product, show it to a kid. Okay, like no filter. The kid's got no filter, like a 5-year-old, 6-year-old, something like that, or even a 3-year-old, and say which car do you like? Cybertruck. So that's how you know. And it's finally something that it just looks like the future. And it drives so well. It's comfortable. It's just a fantastic product. I think it's our best product. And it's a lot of innovation. Got 48-volt low-voltage system finally instead of 12 volts. 800-volt drivetrain, world's biggest castings. It's bulletproof, all the cool things. Can outpull an F-350 Diesel, which is a very impressive truck. And it can do a quarter mile faster than a Porsche 911 while towing a Porsche 911. So that's insane.
Yeah, and if you think about it, how often do companies make products that move your heart, that are really special? It's so rare. And I think this is one of them. So yeah.
And we launched the upgraded 3, which is actually a fantastic car. I recommend trying it out. It's really a great car. And it's only $216 after gas savings, like total cost of ownership. It's basically $0 and something dollars when compared to a gasoline car, similar gasoline car. So it's really a great deal and a fun car. And the Performance Model 3, Performance is well, it's like, you know, passing a Porsche 911. It's just a great, great car. So yeah.
And of course Model Y became the best-selling vehicle globally. And this is something that we predicted. So I think I said in like 2022 it would be Model Y would be the biggest car in the world by dollar volume sales, and that 2023 it would be the biggest in unit volume. And it was. And again this year it will be the best-selling car on Earth.
And we got the Tesla Semi. You know, we're in low-volume production of the Tesla Semi. And just last week I approved the plans for volume production of the Tesla Semi. So we're going to make a lot of Semi trucks. So we're going to start off with... yeah, it's something I think it'll actually move the needle financially. It's not a small thing. And the thing about commercial vehicles is that companies that use them are super objective. It's not like... obviously we're going to make it have cool style and be an awesome car. But for commercial vehicles, the companies that make the buying decisions, they just look at the numbers. Like is this cost less to transport or cost more to transport than a diesel truck? And the thing is that the economics are much better than a diesel truck. It's kind of basically a no-brainer. If you're a transport company, you don't use the Tesla electric Semi, you're just losing money. Why would you do that? Do you not like money? Okay. But if you do like money, then I recommend using the Tesla Semi.
And so I think this is really going to actually sell at a scale that people will be surprised at, and will actually move the needle financially and do a lot of good. And also for CO2 and sustainability, because semis are driven all the time. Actually, even at much smaller numbers, they have a very big effect on total carbon emissions. So obviously we've got some new products that we're working on under the covers. And I think these are going to be pretty special. So some of them, I think people maybe at first may think, oh, it's not going to be that amazing. But just wait, it will be.
So our Supercharger network is continuing to grow. You know, rumors of the death of the Supercharger are greatly exaggerated. We are in fact continuing to grow the Supercharger network significantly. In fact, this year I think we'll deploy more Superchargers this year that are actually working than the rest of the industry combined, just FYI. So now we are going to be more careful about the capital efficiency of where we deploy Superchargers. But for sure, any place that has congestion, any sort of missing parts of the map that we're missing, we're going to put the Superchargers there. So even for the remainder of the year, we expect to spend about half a billion dollars on Supercharger deployment. So it's very significant. It'll be a well-spent half a billion. So this is a lot. And this is actually not showing a bunch of new markets that will be opening up later this year and next. So we're obviously, we want Tesla to be worldwide. And there's still a lot of countries that we have zero to very few Teslas, and we obviously want Tesla everywhere. So there are a lot of new markets that we're going to open up later this year or next. We're also opening the Superchargers to other companies with the adapter to the old, somewhat clunky connector. But our goal is to be helpful to other car companies. So any other car companies that are going electric, we do want to be helpful to them with our Supercharger network. So we're providing them with adapters and enabling them to have access to the Tesla Supercharging network because we think it's better to do that than to create a walled garden that inhibits EV growth.
Oops, that was a bit of latency here. And we're also innovating a lot in battery production with the 4680 that's built right here. And it is a hard problem. There are entire companies that just make battery cells, that's all they do. But we're making good progress. Like all the Cybertrucks that you see use the Tesla 4680 cell. And we have a clear path to the 4680 being, we think, probably the most competitive cell from a manufacturing efficiency standpoint. But it is a hard problem. I have to say, there's quite a lot of brain damage required to be good at cell manufacturing. It's like a brain damage high. But I think it does give Tesla resilience in the face of if there are changes in the geopolitical situation somehow. But it's good to have some independence in cell manufacturing. So yeah, we're making steady progress. And we also have the cathode refinery, which you can see behind the main factory. So you can sort of see it in the picture there. That's a cathode refinery. And then we've got the lithium refinery in South Texas. And so we're just making sure we've kind of got the piece of the puzzle. And I mean, if you were to look at sort of a video of how Tesla does cathode and lithium refining and how the rest of industry does it, it's night and day. I mean, you can sort of eat off the floor in the Tesla refinery, and I would not recommend doing so in the others. So it's really, we're definitely going very, very vertical here. But I think this is a wise investment that will pay off more than people realize.
So I don't think this thing's working. So this year we're also on track to complete a massive number of energy deployments. So that is a gigantic increase in deployment capability. So we're really, we seem to be tracking to sort of a 200 to 300% year-over-year growth in energy storage deployment and stationary packs. So it's giant. And the limiting factor really is being able to build more Megapacks and build more Powerwalls. So we're ramping up production of the Powerwall 3, which is really a game-changer at the personal level. Powerwall 3, it usually takes about three iterations of any given technology to really, for it to be something where it's like, okay, now we're really hitting the sweet spot. So Powerwall 3 is like an epic product. The Megapack is also, it's even, I'd call it sort of iteration two of Megapack, is also an epic product. With the Megapack 3, which is I know probably a couple years away, we'll start actually absorbing more and more of the substation, of the sort of power electronics. Because I sort of think you want to get to the point with the Megapack where you can literally just take the high-voltage power lines and plug them in. Just there's no station, we just plug them in, just drop them down and plug it in. And now it works. Which is like mind-blowing for the utility industry, by the way. Like they're like, what? Yeah, you just plug the wires in and it'll work for very high voltage. So that I think is actually going to be major. So this is, anyway, so yeah, this is great. Excellent work by the energy storage team. Services and other are also looking good. So we're actually now making money on the services and other stuff. So this is kind of a big deal.
Great, yeah. So the... yeah, and Tesla is obviously way more than a car company. We do a lot of software at Tesla. You know, about, I don't know, roughly half or a very huge percentage of the engineering we do is actually software engineering. So Tesla's, I'd say, as much a software company as it's a hardware company. This is a very big deal because car companies are not software companies normally. So this matters a lot. So things like our Autopilot software, for energy storage, all the software that controls the cars, the Megapacks, the Powerwalls, the solar. Obviously for AI and Full Self-Driving are a big deal. Insurance, service and collision. Tesla also writes a lot of software internally that helps, that like we call the Tesla operating system internally, that is head and shoulders above what any other company has. I think probably better than any Fortune 500 company. The Tesla internal software is just way better. So it's yeah, it's just far more than what people normally think of as a car company. And Tesla is also the world leader in real-world AI. So this is a big deal. Like Tesla is ahead of Google, Meta, you know, OpenAI, anyone on real-world software actually taking in video and making decisions based on video. No one is even close. And it's getting better. I'd say with each passing month, if not each passing week. So yeah.
And it's also worth noting that Tesla is actually pretty good at chip design. So the AI inference chip that was designed by Tesla that's in cars, we had sort of our Hardware 3 AI inference. Cars made over the past year have the Hardware 4. We've just completed design on Hardware 5, which we're now calling AI5. Because it really is... there still actually is not a chip from Nvidia or from, and I have a lot of respect for Nvidia, from any company that we would prefer to put in our car that is better than what we have in the car. So we started from scratch in chip design, just as we started from scratch in AI software, and have the best real-world AI software and the best AI inference chip in the world from nothing. So this is a big deal. And the capability of the chips in the car is dramatic. I mean, right now all the cars are actually training. Like we have Hardware 4 run Hardware 3 in emulation mode. So we'll continue to make significant progress in Hardware 3, but later this year we'll actually, we'll continue working on Hardware 3, so on training on Hardware 3, but then do separate training on Hardware 4. That'll be the sort of training cluster that we're building at the south side of the Gigafactory. And that'll be dedicated Hardware 4 video and inference. And you know, so the Hardware 4 has cameras that have about four or five times better resolution. And depending on how you count the sort of Hardware 4, it's anywhere from three to eight times better than Hardware 3. But everything you're seeing thus far is just Hardware 3, and we still have a long way to go before we reach the limits of Hardware 3. So Hardware 3, I think we still will do amazing things. But Hardware 4, I think will probably do about five times better. Then Hardware 5, which comes out in about 18 months or so, is 10 times more capable than Hardware 4. It's like a, if you know Nvidia hardware, it's sort of a B200 class computer.
So, you know, that's like this. So what we'll just progressively do is improve how many nines of reliability the car gets. And then of course that will go into Optimus as well. So the same chip will go into, you know, Hardware 4 will go into Optimus. Hardware AI5, which we're calling, switching from Hardware 5 to AI5, will be in Optimus and in all cars in about 18 months. And it's really just a staggering amount of compute. And it's very power-efficient compute. So it's got to be, because if you're in a mobile application like a humanoid robot or a car, you can't just be sucking down 10 kilowatts, you know, like you can in a data center. So you've got to be very power-efficient. So the, you know, sort of Hardware 3 and 4 are only a few hundred watts. Yeah, this is hard. Now Hardware 5, we will be able to go probably up to about 700 or 800 watts. But it will power fluctuate contingent upon the complexity of the scene that it is in. So if it is in a, you know, parking lot, stationary areas, like, you know, don't have to think very much, just like a person. Like if you're in a complicated traffic scenario, you've got to think a lot more than if you're just cruising along on an empty road. But something that I think is potentially interesting down the road is like at some point the Tesla fleet, I think, will probably be, you know, over 100 million vehicles. And if each vehicle has a kilowatt of efficient inference compute, I think there's an Amazon Web Services, AWS type opportunity. Because if you got 100 million vehicles with a kilowatt of efficient inference compute, you've got 100 gigawatts of compute. Like 100 gigawatts of compute is a lot. And it's distributed all over the world. So even when the car is not in autonomous mode, which I think probably is, you know, doing robotaxi work maybe 50, 60 hours a week, but about 100 hours a week it's not, it's probably stationary. So there's 100 hours of 100 gigawatts of inference compute, which I think we should use. Why not? You know, when people looked at Amazon, we started out, I would say, as an online book seller. And it's, you know, has grown to be like this incredible place where you can buy anything. And then Amazon Web Services, like, well, they got all these computers that only really see peak usage sometimes. But what are they going to do when it's not peak usage? And sometimes Amazon servers are down like 10%. So that's when they said, well, let's do Amazon Web Services. And then Amazon Web Services became more valuable than the entire rest of Amazon. And I think there's some kind of opportunity there that's pretty significant for Tesla down the road. You know, again, that's really nobody's really factoring that in. But I think that actually will be quite significant.
We also are no longer compute-constrained for training. So I check in with the team, is there anything we could do to improve the pace of progress with respect to training and inference? And currently that is not the limiting factor. In fact, the limiting factor right now is that the amount of miles between interventions is so long that it takes quite a while to figure out which version is better than the other version, because none of them are requiring any interventions. So it's like, you know, if you start getting to like thousands of miles between interventions, or like 10,000 miles to get an intervention, then like, well, the average person only drives about 10,000 miles in a year. And if it's in an urban environment and the average speed is 20 miles an hour, I mean, so our professional test drivers get pretty bored, frankly. They're like, okay, I drove all week and there was no intervention. Like the highlight of the week would be like, yes, an intervention finally. It's like getting to that point. So this is where actually having a giant fleet is extremely important. Because we can deploy a new FSD model and run it in Shadow mode and see how well it performs. Compare how the human drives the car versus the new self-driving build. And then analyze that delta in Shadow mode, like the shadow knows, or doesn't know, as the case may be. And then be able to assess by getting billions of miles very quickly with the giant fleet. Like that data engine is incredibly helpful. Like actually it's not possible to solve the self-driving problem without having millions of vehicles on the road. So that's actually the... is like figuring out clever ways to test how good the next FSD build is, is actually the limiting factor right now. And then of course, like I said, we are building another training data center right here, which will be dedicated to Hardware 4 training. So we'll separate Hardware 3 and Hardware 4 training later this year. We'll keep improving Hardware 3, but we're going to unlock the full capability of Hardware 4 as well.
Yeah, and I think most people here have tried out version 12. We did say like unsupervised Full Self-Driving, Full Self-Driving would be version 12. So we are actually just keeping the version arbitrarily at 12 and then like calling it 12.4, 12.3, 12.4, 12.5. But it's actually really like version 13, version 14. But anyway, this is an arbitrary designation. So 12.4 is actually like a whole different version than 12.3. And 12.5 is a whole different version than 12.4. So you'll see really giant improvements, I think sometimes factor of 10 improvements between successive versions. And then as I mentioned, the way it'll work for the existing fleet is you'll be able to add or subtract your car to the fleet as you'd like. And there will also be Tesla-owned cars. So it'll be a combination of like Uber plus Airbnb. But it'll be pretty wild that there'll be a software update and then the whole fleet suddenly becomes accessible. It's like suddenly you've got 7 million, 10 million cars that can, ultimately tens of millions of cars that can do autonomous driving. And instead of being used 10 hours a week, it can be used 50 or 60 hours a week.
So it's pretty wild to just, you know, be in Palo Alto with a bunch of cubes and then a humanoid robot just walks past. We've made a massive amount of progress with Optimus in a short period of time. From someone pretending to be a robot dancing in a suit to a pretty hodgepodge robot to a robot that is actually doing useful tasks in the factory today. So we have two Optimus robots in our Fremont factory that are doing basically this task, which is taking cells off the end of the line and placing them in a shipping container. And yeah, we actually have quite a few of these cruising around our offices in Palo Alto. So there's... and I think we've got kind of like one major hardware revision, which should be done by end of this year or early next, before... and then we'll move into a limited production next year of Optimus. Limited production for use in our factories where we'll test out the product, kind of, you know, as I say, sort of eat our own dog food or whatever the electronic equivalent of all that is. So, but I think like next year, my prediction is next year we'll have over a thousand, maybe a few thousand Optimus robots working at Tesla. And things are going to scale up very rapidly from there. So we'll iron out the bugs. The degree of autonomy will be radically better. You'll just literally be able to talk to it and say, please do this task, or I'm going to show you something now, do that thing that I'm showing you. And get to the point where it can watch a video of something, like a person, and then learn just by looking at that video and do that task. So yeah. So really it's going to be quite something. And I'm confident of the prediction that there will be more, like the ratio of humanoid robots to humans will be greater than one-to-one. So there'll be, you know, more than 10 billion humanoid robots in the world, probably 20 or more. And Tesla is going to be by far the leader in that. You're seeing a lot of robot startups, but I think it's actually very challenging to do Optimus as a robot startup. Because what we found to make Optimus work, we've had to design from first principles from scratch every part of the robot. So the motors, the gearbox, the sensors, the power electronics, the communication system, everything had to be done from scratch. We found that there's basically nothing, there's no supply chain. So even though there are many electric motors made in the world, there's no supply chain for the types of motors and sensors and gearboxes that are needed for a humanoid robot. And I mean, what you're seeing here is our current generation hand and arm, which has 11 degrees of freedom. Our next generation has 22 degrees of freedom. It will be able to play the piano. So it's really like, wow. Now of course, like I said, we need to make sure we don't have the Terminator scenario. That's very important. So safety of the humanoid robot will be very important. But because it requires so much ground-up design, designing every motor, gearbox, sensor, power electronics from scratch, it's very hard for a startup, if not impossible for a startup to replicate that. But at Tesla, we have the world's best electrical engineering. I think we've got the world's best mechanical engineering for gearboxes and for electric motors, power electronics. So you know, we have the resources to do that. It applies quite well. And then you also have to have the brain. You need a power-efficient inference computer, which we've got for the car and we will be using in Optimus. You need to be the best in real-world AI, and Tesla is the best in real-world AI. So you need all of these. You need a very strong hand of cards in order to make a compelling robot. And then you also need to be very good at scale manufacturing. So in order to have the robot not cost like hundreds of thousands of dollars, in order to make it cost like, you know, $10,000 or $20,000, you actually need to design for manufacturing and be very good at manufacturing. And in my experience, prototypes are easy compared to volume manufacturing. Prototypes are easy, production is hard, relatively speaking. So Tesla has the production capability, it has the engineering capability, and it has the AI hardware and software capability. And even the most optimistic estimates that I've seen for Optimus, the Optimus Optimists, I think undercount the magnitude of what this robot will be able to do. You know, as I said at the beginning of the presentation, I agree with the ARK Invest analysis that autonomous transport is called sort of a $5 to $7 trillion market cap situation. Optimus, I think, is a $25, literally $25 trillion market cap situation. So now I don't want to trivialize what's necessary to get there. I mean, it's an immense amount of work that is required to get there, like super difficult. But we are moving very fast down that road. We're going to make it happen. So thank you.
I guess with that we can go to Q&A. Sorry, yeah. Oh, I guess we've got mics lined up. Dive for the mic.