Elad Gil38:35
And you see multiple companies growing really fast. You know, Harvey's growing really fast, like Decagon and others are growing really fast. So, you just see these things lift off and I think it's back to like these markets are open, the capabilities are massive, the transition is large, the ability to iterate on product is high, everybody wants to try things right now. So, again, it's a very magical moment and a very manic moment. And, you know, I was looking back in history at the '90s, and in '99, 450 companies went public. In the first few months of 2000, another 450 companies went public. And so, say you had 1,500 to 2,000 companies go public over a five-year span. How many of those are still relevant? I don't know the number. It's a dozen, two dozen. It's very, very few. Most of the companies went to zero. Those are the most successful companies. They went public, right? It's not the average company. It's the most successful companies, 90-something percent are just gone. And so then you think about it in the context of AI and you're like, okay, most of these things are not going to exist. A handful of things are going to be Amazon and Google and etc, right? And so then as a founder, how should you think about that? And for every company, there's a handful of companies that'll keep going forever, right? That's probably OpenAI and Anthropic and a few things will just keep going forever. There's a lot of companies that are looking really good right now, they probably sell at some point. And for every company, there's like a 12-month period which is sort of the value-maximizing period that's going to be the most valuable and important it will ever be and then in many cases these things go to zero or close to it. So, one thing that some people do to have good hygiene around this, and by the way, I think there's some companies that should absolutely never sell, right? The companies that really work should never ever ever sell. But how do you know if you're one of those, right? And so good hygiene, I think, for companies, especially if you have a board, is once a year to preschedule a board meeting that's talking about exits. Should we sell? And if so, at what price? And is this a value-maximizing moment? And because you preschedule it and it's annual, it takes the emotion out of it. It doesn't look like you're trying to sell or want to sell. It doesn't look like you're against it. You're just going to have a rational logic-based conversation on the market, on competition, on your position, on your growth rate. Like if your growth is like this, like you see the second derivative changing, now maybe I could tend to sell and you can fix it, right? And so I think it's worth just having that conversation ongoing because again, in most of these cycles, 90-something percent of things end up not working even if they look like they're working.