Robert Thomson47:05
Yeah, that's a very fair question. I mean, sometimes we're asked, you know, why didn't you predict? I mean, it's hard to predict these things, but it's certainly true that there should have been more examination of the underlying causes, the unusual circumstances of the crisis. And in the end, you know, many people were culpable, the institutions and individuals, and right down to the person, frankly, who fibbed about how much they were earning to get a home loan, right up to Wall Street where the incentive schemes were skewed in a way that emphasized short-term profit at the expense of the long-term health of the institution. So right through America and frankly across the world, you look at the case of Iceland, which is, it's been extra, this is quite a good book coming out in the next couple of months written by a Times of London journalist called Roger Boyce, which I read an early version of during the summer. And it's just almost unbelievable. But if you're ignorant of the consequences of your action, then you'll in the end be harmed by it. So a lot of people responsible, among them journalists, who some of whom just don't understand finance. I mean, they're very, they call themselves business journalists. I'm not talking about the Wall Street Journal specifically here, but just generally around the world, there are very few people who've taken the trouble to truly understand the various elements that combined together create the financial crisis that we're still going through. I'm a little like you, I think instinctively or from what I sense is your perspective, which is green shoots, it's hard to see exactly where they come from. Allegedly the first person to use those words was Shriti Vadera, who's an advisor to Gordon Brown, and I can see why she would want to believe that there are green shoots. But green shoots have been very, words green shoots have been green shooting all over the world. I can understand why Shriti would be definitely in favor of green shoots, but whether there are green shoots is a separate issue. That again, the problem is the underlying one of individuals, households, still to continue deleveraging before they're in good health. That's a problem. Actually, there's another problem with Wall Street, which is due just at the moment, Wall Street is awash with money. I mean, there is a lot of cheap capital, which is why you're seeing a sudden spate of M&A deals like the Cadbury or Kraft potential takeover. But at the same time, these, and big companies, frankly, including News Corporation, are able to borrow long-term on very favorable terms. But for small companies and for individuals, their credit lines are still being cut. And if, you know, five people in this room had a brilliant idea for a company and, you know, we're all certain it's going to work, you would find it very difficult to get financing. And so what you're seeing a little bit on Wall Street is not what you're seeing on Main Street. And until there are truly green shoots coming out of the concrete and mainstream, you are going to have globally economic growth. And I think that's certainly true of what you would call the Anglo-Saxon economies. And then there's China, which is very difficult to read because of the level of state intervention, and the immediate impact of state intervention in China is very unusual. And what you can't tell is how effective a lot of that investment has been, nor can you tell what will happen when the state investment slows down. So the idea that China will somehow be an engine for global growth, I don't quite accept. So I'm a little more pessimistic than most people. I slightly fear that those green shoots will become brown shoots.