Toby Z. Rice at The Energy Future Forum 2026

Happy to be here.

Yeah, the energy we produce needs to be bigger. That's for sure. And every day at EQT, we produce a little bit over a million barrels a day of energy, but all in natural gas form. But I use the barrels just to give you guys some context on the scale here. And we're doing that with just three drilling rigs. So just think about that. It just shows you the productive power of these shale resources, what we've been able to unlock with the innovation. But it's never been a more important time for us to produce energy in this country. Americans' energy bills are up over 40%. This is not because of Iran. This is not because of AI data centers. This rise in energy costs started in 2020. We've got energy security of our allies is crippled. We've got a major energy crunch coming with the AI revolution and the tremendous amount of energy that's going to need. And on top of this, billions in this world live without enough access to energy. We have got to make our ecosystem bigger. And we're at a really important point in time now where, thanks to the shale revolution, and it's not just EQT, there's hundreds of companies, independents, that have transformed America from being energy dependent to being an energy powerhouse on the world stage. But we've achieved our energy independence. Now the next challenge, Terry, is we've got to go from independence to energy dominance. And energy dominance means we continue to provide Americans the energy advantage where they get the lowest cost energy in the world right now. In Europe, they're paying $15 for the natural gas. In the United States, they're paying $2.50. What an advantage. We need to protect that. We need to make sure that we win the AI race. Our estimates, it's going to take about 18 BCF a day of natural gas. It's a 20% increase in natural gas supply to meet the energy needs for the AI revolution. We need to provide energy security to our allies. We're excited about the path to go from the 20 BCF a day we're producing today. We see a pathway to 30 BCF a day, and then past that, we see there's, given the fact that this Iran conflict is showing that US LNG is the most reliable form of LNG on the planet, full stop. It's produced in a peaceful region backed by the world's strongest military. We're seeing a rush to more US LNG that could set the table for us to go from 30 to 40 BCF a day. That's another 20% increase there. And then on top of all this, we need to continue to look for ways to replace the bad actors in energy. And energy dominance means that you get your energy from a friendly source like America. If you're a rogue state that is going to use your energy sales, you're going to weaponize energy like what Russia has done, or you're going to use your energy sales to fuel bombs, terror, and tyranny like in Iran and Venezuela. We need to replace you with friendly sources. And America has a big role to replace that influence with American influence. And then on top of all that, you get through all that, Terry. And the biggest challenge, and what I believe is the biggest opportunity in energy right now, because energy is about people, and the biggest opportunity in energy right now and in the future is going to be getting access to the billions of people in this world that live without enough energy to do it. And that is going to require us to triple the amount of energy that's produced and consumed in this world. All forms of energy, not just natural gas.

We would like to see a future where natural gas plays a leading role in the energy ecosystem. We believe that natural gas is America's superpower. And the value of that independence that we've been able to create today is evident by the fact that Americans have been insulated from these geopolitical price shocks. But to get people to take that leap of faith with you that energy should play the leading role, you got to make sure that this isn't a flash in the pan, that we've got the resource to be able to do this. So, a couple years ago when we did our Unleash US LNG campaign, the biggest green initiative on the planet, still is. Don't forget that. It's also the biggest energy security blanket for the world. We're seeing that today, too. We estimated, we said, man, this is really great. How big could we make US LNG? And thanks to the shale revolution, what we've discovered but not yet drilled, we figured with two constraints: the energy has got to be affordable, it's got to be reliable. With a $4 gas price, what inventory has available to do that, and the reliability comes in growing to a peak that you can sustain for over 30 years. And when we did that number, we can create 60 BCF a day of natural gas surplus in this country to provide energy security to our allies, to lower Americans' energy bills, to win this AI race. 60 BCF a day of surplus is what's available for us to create with those two constraints. Oh, and Terry, by the way, that doesn't even factor in the Permian. That doesn't factor in Alaska. That's just from the gassier plays like the Appalachian region, Haynesville, SCOOP/STACK, and the Eagle Ford to contribute that. So yeah, just with that massive potential, and 60 BCF a day, for people that aren't too plugged in on how much energy that is, that is the energy equivalent of adding over 10 million barrels a day of clean energy. It's going to bring a tremendous amount of peace and prosperity to the world stage. That's why natural gas is our superpower. And as much as we're doing right now, we can do so much more. And this is a tremendous gift for Americans and it's going to be an even bigger gift for our allies around the world.

Yeah. So, we'll spend a minute just talking about some of the market dynamics we're seeing in the US because one of the things that's great about, one great thing that's happening in America is we've never produced more energy than we're producing right now. Think about that in context of the fact of what I said earlier, America's energy bills are up almost 40%. How can you have a situation where energy production is up, but energy bills are still going up? It's just a symptom that there's a big bottleneck that's been created between where the energy is being produced and where it's getting consumed. And you see situations where we have an energy crisis going on in the world, but we have negative gas prices in West Texas. We have a situation, we have the biggest gas field in the world, and we sell our gas at almost a 75 cent discount at the hub. But right next to the biggest gas field in the world in Appalachia where we operate is New England, and Massachusetts in New England is going to pay the highest natural gas prices in the world in the winter time. Think about that. Higher, more expensive than Europe, more expensive than Germany. It's absolutely ridiculous. Typically how these things sort out is you see these price signals and the market forces will correct. Guys like Mike Howard will go out there and they'll build a pipeline and connect low-cost supply to a higher price market and everything will normalize. But market forces have been overridden by political force, and that's why permit reform is needed to make this happen. But as it relates to the international arena, how domestic prices relate to international prices? One of the risks that people had is that more exports is going to create higher prices for Americans. While that narrative is being decimated right now, we're showing you the true power of our energy independence here with natural gas prices around the world going up $10. When the Strait of Hormuz closed, in the United States, it went up 10 cents. Okay, we've protected Americans. Now, fast forward a few weeks. Prices internationally are still up 50%. They're down 10% in the United States. The dynamic that we see with the international markets is you are going to be exposed to international prices. But as a producer, if prices internationally get soft, then the spread will close between Henry Hub and international prices. And if that gets below, call our view, about $2.50, you will see US LNG facilities turn down, which leaves demand, which puts pressure on domestic prices. So you have exposure to the downside. Sure. And we saw that in 2020. So, you have the exposure to the downside whether you decide to take it, international exposure or not. But in a situation where prices increase globally, guess what? There's not going to be a big increase in domestic prices as we're seeing right now. And so, as a domestic natural gas producer, that's not a really good skew on outcomes. We've got all the downside, but no exposure to the upside. And that's why we've made the decision to get some international exposure to give our investors the best risk-adjusted exposure to natural gas markets.

Yeah, I think it's really important for us to continue to reiterate our commitment to environmental excellence is unwavering. You know, people need to know that ESG and taking care of the environment has always been a big, in the communities that we operate in, has always been a big part of the oil and gas industry culture. We just called it EHS. But let me tell you why this was important for us to do this net zero scope one and two. You know, one of the biggest environmental concerns on natural gas today is methane emissions, right? And people will say, 'We need to shut down natural gas development because of methane emissions.' Okay, let me give you an example. We can, and we, because we cannot let the environmental concerns over producing our products override the environmental benefits when people use our product. And give you an example. At EQT, our carbon footprint is about 800,000 tons. Okay. And that's what people are saying, we need to shut that down. Well, that 800,000 tons is what it takes for us to run our rigs, complete our wells, take care, do all the well tending, drive the trucks in the road. 800,000 tons. You want to shut that down? Okay. Well, think about this. That carbon footprint is associated with the amount of operations that will produce an amount of product when put on the world stage to replace higher-emitting forms of energy like coal, will have an environmental benefit of over 150 million tons. So what, 800,000 tons costs for a 150 million ton benefit. Okay, how do we get people to focus on the benefits? Well, we're taking this off the table. And so that's why it was important for us to be net zero on scope one and two and achieve our net zero methane emissions. And one thing that's really important people understand is the journey that we took to get there. We did it very quickly. We did it very cost-effectively. And these solutions are available to other operators. This is not an EQT story. So this can be replicated and it is being replicated, starting with combo development for us, getting better at drilling wells. If you can drill wells at half the speed, guess what, Terry? Your carbon footprint will drop because you're not using as much diesel. So being great in our operations has been a big benefit in the US in the shale revolution. We've seen a, if you look at the productivity per rig, just to speak to the innovation and the efficiency that we've demonstrated, one of the reasons why energy is so affordable, we've seen a 20-fold increase in the productivity per rig in this country. We used to have 2,000 rigs, not producing, you know, about a third, 75% of the energy we're producing now with only 500 rigs. Speaks to that. That's the first step. Second step for us was pinpointing the biggest source of methane emissions. And that was replacing pneumatic devices was the big source. Doing that one thing alone, we pulled out 9,000 devices. We did it in 18 months. It cost about $38 million. 38 million. But the impact on that, it cut our methane emissions by over 70%. Shaved over 300,000 tons of emissions off our footprint. And when you do the math on it, Terry, it was less than $5 per ton from an abatement cost. Okay? We did it fast. It was cost-effective. And it was incredibly impactful. And these opportunities exist for others around industry. And this is why you're seeing methane emissions in the United States drop significantly. We've seen a 43% improvement, and you could look at the API is doing an environmental partnership where they put out the results for everybody, not just looking at EQT, but looking at the entire industry. What I told Secretary Granholm three years ago was keep your focus on methane emissions. Keep the bullseye on that because we're going to knock that out of the park. We've done it. We've proved it and the rest of industry is doing that as well.

Yeah. What's exciting to think about with the application of AI now, AI is going to impact A players better than your normal B or C players and I believe the oil and gas industry is one of those A players. You look at the innovation that we've done in the past, that 20-fold increase in productivity. This technology is going to supercharge those type of results and that's just going to allow us to preserve this American energy advantage that we have. Technology is also going to be important but what I really think is going to be this next era is going to be about expanding energy access. I believe that some of the things that drove this industry, we talk, I mean net zero and the impact of climate, you know, I think we're now in an era where we can focus on people. And while I do believe climate is a concern, it's not the biggest concern. I believe the biggest concern on this planet facing humanity today is poverty. That's what I believe. But what I know is that the fastest, most impactful way to bring people out of poverty is get them access to energy and we know that more energy consumption leads to greater wealth. And we have a really amazing opportunity. What if we made a decision to end poverty? What would that look like? If we defined poverty as being ended, if we can get the world to a level of wealth, just call it $50,000 GDP per capita. How much energy would that take? We would need to get the world to consume about 50 megawatt hours equivalent of energy. Now, for perspective, the United States is around 90. Okay? But if we can get the world to that level of energy consumption, 50 megawatt hours equivalent, it'll translate to $50,000 GDP. That's our vision. 50 and 50, we want to do that in 50 years. And Terry, what's really, 50-50-50, pretty easy to remember. And what's remarkable about this, and we formed Energy Core, is a nonprofit for this industry to carry this vision forward and also provide a vehicle to execute projects to bring energy access to some of the markets that maybe are underserved today. Because in our day jobs we're focused on carrying the weight of the developed world but there's this huge opportunity that we're going to be focusing on. But if we can do this, what would it take on a big picture to be able to achieve this vision? We need to triple the amount of energy that's produced and consumed in this world as I mentioned before and that's not just oil and gas, that's solar, wind, nuclear, oil and gas, coal, all of it, all needs to come up. Think about that in perspective when people are talking about canceling a coal facility. Okay, we need to triple the amount of energy that's produced and consumed. But if we do that, we'll end poverty. If we do that, it will increase global GDP five times over.

Yeah, it's a 501(c)(3). Okay. And you know, whether you care about energy, whether you care about creating wealth or business, or whether you care about people making the world a safer, more prosperous place, and that prosperity is going to bring more peace. And don't we know we need that? We need to be thinking about that. Yeah. You should care about this initiative, care about helping us on this vision and would invite everybody to learn more about this to visit energycore.com and find ways to get involved. This is going to be something we're really excited about.

When we came into EQT, six years ago, the mission for us, and this is why shareholders brought us in, was to realize the full potential of EQT. And we've certainly had an amazing run the last six years. We've cut our cost by 30%. We've increased the productive capacity by 50%. We've doubled the free cash flow per share capabilities of the organization. Paying down some debt. We've got a quality culture. We've got a quality asset base. We've got a quality cost structure. We've got a quality balance sheet. But this last part was bringing back quality growth. And the thing that I have not realized the full potential of yet has been this massive resource base that we have. I mean all these numbers we talk about the potential that we could bring, you know, this amount of surplus to the world. Finding ways to unlock that, at EQT we have the ability to produce about 8 BCF a day of gas. If we had the demand, we would be able to produce, with our asset base we have the ability to increase our production by 50%. But we cannot just blindly grab that. We've got to make sure the demand is there. That's why we care about things like unleashing US LNG. It's why we care about making sure the tech companies have all the energy they need to win this AI race. It's why we care about big opportunities like providing energy access to the world. And that's how we could realize the full potential of EQT. That's what I think about every night.

All right. Thank you, Terry.