Mr. Dimon, thank you for having us. Thank you for being our host here in Paris. I mean, there's a lot riding. The markets are optimistic. You're optimistic that there's some kind of resolution in the Middle East. Are they overlooking the worries about inflation?
Yeah, it's really a welcome. I'm happy to be here. I think there's a little bit too much exuberance out there. It's not just the Middle East. It's Ukraine, Russia still there, America, China, through a lot of these complex issues, which maybe not quite the market, but the issues like inflation. You know, today's paper was so good. But yeah, I think the market is kind of exuberant and it may not be completely justified.
So why are they so exuberant if they're exuberant? Are you expecting a correction? And is it because they're looking at a high?
No, I don't think it's... I think corporate probably doing very well. Hey, it will be a plus though this year. It's just a lot more spending, which may be a little inflationary too. But it's more about quarter profits and we could do a little bit more QE. Government still spends a lot of money. The one big beautiful bill is kicking in, stimulus offsetting a lot of the... I think the gas increase, the dollar gas is $100 billion. The big one big real close 100 billion consumers. One big group built. 300 billion. Deregulation is real. Who are these leaders? Of course. You know, pretty good market right now. But when you talk about exuberance, it means that there's a market dislocation. Where do you see that? In the stock markets in the top 10, 15%. Credit spreads are very low. The general assumption that things... that this is all the result. I'm just kind of a skeptic. I don't know. I hope they do, but I don't know that they will.
Okay. What do chief executives worry about in private that they tell you that they won't tell us?
Not much. It's trade, on your America, NATO, on the wars, oil prices. I mean, the same stuff you hear about all the time. But CapEx, I know, you know, we had a great earnings season. Yeah. Is the next one going to be less good? I don't know yet. It's very hard to tell. You know, I think the deficit spending drives a lot of corporate earnings too. So we and drives a lot of CapEx and your own capacity. Productivity before creates inflation. I don't know that. I think one of the risks is inflation. I've always thought that.
But also how do you think of oil and how do you think about what's happening in the Middle East at this last three weeks, even like two months? Are we going to be in trouble?
It's a big deal. And every day it gets a little bit worse. I don't know how you resolve it. Hope it gets resolved in the interest of the United States and against the Iranian regime and not the Iranian people. But I don't know. But I read something very interesting that China reduced demand by 5 million barrels a day. America increases exports by 3 billion barrels a day. That 8 million is made for a lot of those lost. And that which is maybe why hasn't been a severe thing. On the other hand, inventories are coming down. You know, we I guess wells we have to be close and stuff like that. So it gets a little more serious every day. That day becomes a disaster. Has been pushed down quite further than we thought at the beginning.
Do you worry about the U.S. consumer? Are you seeing signs of stressing?
No. I think the offer in the top 50%. Lots of money, jobs, wages going up. Home price going up, productive spending. Like they should know. Like the buying or traveling. The bottom 30%. If I'm going to save struggling a little bit, not a massive downturn, then of course we'd like to help it. But their wages have not gone up. But more important that they do have jobs and they don't have too much debt. They still have jobs. And that, you know, today was going to drive consumer spending, consumer sentiment, that part of corporate profits will be jobs.
What do you worry about? I know there's also the president's meeting with President Xi tomorrow in Beijing. I mean, does that have implications for the trajectory of America?
Okay. I don't know, but I would suspect I'll come up with some that will be a friendly meeting with some positives from both sides. I don't think China is going to give in to any major demands. I don't think we're to make major demands. You know, we both have a lot of common interest. You know, anti-terrorism operation. You know, China is doing a jokes. You know, they have to deal with President Trump. So we'll see how it turns out.
You had an amazing trading. Actually was out. Trading was amazing last quarter. How's it going now?
Well, I can't comment on that, but I mean, from the last time Troy spoke publicly, it was fine so far, but I can't give you other information.
Yeah. When you guys can see every day volumes are high. Yeah. And Mubarak high. All things being equal, it will be good for trade. But you're part of that. I mean, it's you think it's going okay because it depends on the on the kind of trading your high will benefit is going to be very good.
Talk to me about AI. Yeah. So I don't know whether you've also played around with my thoughts. What did you see?
