Well, India's civil aviation market has been booming now for a period of time and the expectations are that it's going to continue to grow. It's not just civil aviation but military aviation as well. Boeing for a number of years has had a real say in India not just by the sales of aircraft, civilian aircraft, but also in fulfilling a make in India or Atmanirbharta belief which we seem to believe or is very very important in terms of the civil aviation industry. But what is the road ahead? There are lots of challenges as well. I'm joined by a very special guest, Dr. Brendan Nelson, president of Boeing Global. Thanks, Dr. Nelson, very much for being with us.
I must ask you about the larger scenario in the world presently. I mean, we are in a war. Civil aviation has been badly impacted. There are thousands of flights which have been canceled. As a broader civil aviation concern, what does this moment represent?
Well, thank you very much, Vishnu. And of course, leaving aside the impact on the aviation industry, of course, this is a tragedy for many Iranians, for people that are living in the Middle East. And let us hope this comes to an end sooner rather than later. As far as the aviation industry is concerned, ours is the most interconnected in the world. We are 4% of global GDP. We are about $4 trillion worth of economic activity a year. We employ 87 million people. And what happens in one part of the world, in this case, an event right across the Middle East, has global consequences. Indians themselves, of course, are directly impacted because of the necessity to travel often through the Middle East. The sooner this comes to an end, the less impactful it will be in a negative sense for the industry. But at the moment, we see that airlines are not able to fly or having to avoid airspace in the Middle East. A lot of aircraft stranded so to speak around the world and we'll be doing everything we possibly can to support those customers, but the longer that it goes on the more detrimental it will be to the industry.
Yeah, because airlines are taking a financial hit no two ways about it. If you aren't flying you aren't essentially earning. And so therefore is it your concern that the longer this lasts financially it's going to hit airlines to a point where prospective orders may be cancelled or delayed?
Well, I wouldn't speculate on that at this stage, Vishnu, but certainly it is and will have a negative impact on the earnings of the airlines that are directly impacted and the longer that it goes on the more significant that impact will be. In terms of what impact it might have on orders for planes in the longer term it's not something I wish to speculate on at the moment. We have very very strong demand for our commercial aircraft products and our defense products. And our order books are full out to the end of this decade and our delivery slots for our 737s and our 787s start in 2030, 2031, and so that's a reflection of the demand there is at the moment and I don't expect to see any softening of that in the near or medium term.
I think there's a great hunger to receive your aircraft faster. And I think delays in certification of the 777X has set back airlines including Air India to a certain extent. They wanted the planes sooner than later. Where do you now stand with that certification?
Well, this of course is in the hands of the FAA. We've had some major milestones that we've met in the certification process for the 777X. Type inspection authorization three occurred late last year and that has opened up quite a lot of the certification process that will take us through the end of this year. We expect to see a certification toward the end of 2026 and we're forecasting deliveries early in 2027. But of course this is in the hands of the FAA.
And what about your latest sort of dates or prospective dates that you have in mind for this certification period to come to an end for you to be able to start delivering the aircraft, the 777X?
Well, as soon as the aircraft is certified we will do the first deliveries shortly after that. And we also have our 737 variants, our 737-7 and 737-10. We're well advanced in the certification process on those two aircraft and we're working to a schedule to have both of them certified again this year.
This year. So that's what you're looking at, full certification for variants of the 737 and the 777-9 done and completed this year. That's your... That is an important statement given the interest in the 737 variants.
That is certainly the case and that's certainly also the case and our ambition for 777X. But again it's quite a detailed, fastidious process as it should be and we work very closely with the FAA and the FAA will make its determination when it's ready.
Supply chain issues affect aircraft manufacturers around the world. For example seats, business class cabins, the retrofit of existing aircraft. Is this a real constraint going forward?
It certainly is a constraint at the moment but we're also confident that to use your expression going forward that we will be able to work through this certification process. I mean the days when you and I were young and you got on a plane the seats were pretty basic seats. These days you get in a whether it's economy or you get in a business or a first class seat it's quite a sophisticated suite and if you have the opportunity to visit one of our factories and actually have a look at the seats waiting for installation as a lay person you get a sense of the complexity and the sophistication in these seats. So we're working very closely with the FAA and with EASA the European regulator in getting more resources into expediting the certification of seats. We have a number of customers that are waiting particularly for 787s waiting for seat certification. Some of it relates to sliding doors, customers these days, passengers they like to be able to slide a door for privacy in business and first class and that amongst other things with its complexity is delaying certification but we will get through it. We are investing a lot more resources into this process as are the regulators themselves but once the customers the airlines receive the seats and people start flying them they're going to, I think they'll think it's worth the wait.
Dr. Nelson, safety is obviously your biggest mandate at Boeing. It has to be. And yet we are at a time when there have been questions raised not least of all after the AI 171 crash on the Dreamliner. Now I know you can't comment on an ongoing investigation. It should hopefully happen and come out sooner than later. It's already been some time. But can you assure people that the Dreamliner, the 787 and all its variants are fundamentally safe from an engineering and safety standpoint?
Well, firstly, to the families of those who tragically lost their lives in this tragedy, our condolences and our thoughts, and let us hope for their sake as much as anybody else's that the report is released when it is ready and as soon as practicable. As far as the 787 is concerned, the aircraft itself, we have complete confidence in it. This aircraft has now done 5 million commercial flights. It has carried 1.2 billion passengers throughout the world. 90 airlines are operating the 787. We have over 1,100 ordered. We had 365 that were ordered last year. It is an outstanding aircraft, and that's why it's being used and has been ordered by a number of Indian carriers and carriers throughout the world. And in my role, being responsible for oversight of all of Boeing's non-US operations, growth, productivity, strategy, and business and industrial partnerships, I'm flying all of the time. And I fly on commercial planes. I'm on a 787 at least once a fortnight. So, that reflects my own confidence in the aircraft.
There have been lots of conspiracy theories which have emerged over here in India. Be that as it may, I think some of the theories pertain to the Dreamliner, separate to the AI-171 incident. And those theories seem to suggest that there is a possibility of a cascading electrical failure, water leakage in parts of the hull of the aircraft, which could interfere with electrical systems, which add to concerns about the safety of the Dreamliner. Is that a possibility at all which represents a concern presently?
All I can say is I have complete confidence and the Boeing company has complete confidence in the 787 aircraft and I'm not going to comment on or add to wild speculation that is not consistent with facts.
