Jim Kennedy warns Joe Biden to avoid ‘basement strategy’ ahead of election

Right now we're reaching out to members of Congress and to members of the public to make our basic point that these allegations do not rise to the level of an impeachable offense as set forth in the Constitution of the United States, and that the will of the people should be listened to. And we believe that has been shown quite clearly to be against impeachment, against resignation.

Well, one thing to keep in mind is that early voting is going to start happening in September, as early as September 20th, and in some key states like New Mexico and Arizona, it's going to start on October 8th and October 9th. So a lot of votes are going to start being cast in October, and that could have a dramatic effect on the election. But more than that, we need to look at the issues of the personal health of both candidates given their age, as well as the health of the economy, which is going to play a role in people's decisions. And also the immigration issue, which is really looming large in 2024. That's going to be a factor, as well as the legal issues surrounding Donald Trump. So there's going to be some kind of alchemy of all those issues that are going to be stewing in people's brains as they go to vote this fall.

Well, a coworker of mine, Doug Sosnik, is a wise observer and recently said that this campaign, if it's a referendum on Donald Trump, then Joe Biden's going to win, and if it's a referendum on Joe Biden, then Donald Trump's going to win. So I think each candidate is going to try to make the other candidate the issue. But you cannot only wage a negative campaign. So I would say to Joe Biden, I would say don't do the basement strategy again from 2020. Get out there, get out there in public, in town hall settings, in rallies. He draws energy from crowds, and show that he has the vitality and the optimism to be a great president. So that would be his mission. And don't demonize all the supporters of your opponent. You can criticize Donald Trump, but don't criticize the people who support him, because you want to be president of all the people. I think it's important for him to have that in mind. And don't be afraid to take a more conservative position on immigration, maybe offend some of the party, but with every vote you may lose on the left, you can gain a couple in the middle, which is where he needs to go to get a majority of support. And I think for the mission for Donald Trump, really, is to borrow the old Bill Clinton campaign song, 'Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow,' and do stop thinking about 2020 and January 6th, and don't obsess about either that or the legal issues he's confronting, but focus instead on issues like personal security for Americans, national security for the country, and economic opportunity for all people. If he approaches that in a positive way and looks to the future, that would benefit him.

Well, the economy is always an issue. Either it works to the benefit of the incumbent if the economy is doing well, or to the detriment of the incumbent if it's doing poorly. And it is going to be an issue, particularly because of inflation. The inflation rate is slowing, there are signs of progress. On the other hand, prices are still high, so people feel confronted by that, and so that's going to continue to be an issue. But I would say this year more than others, immigration has risen. It certainly was an issue in 2016, which benefited Donald Trump, but it's even more prevalent of an issue this year because people see it with their own eyes in many of their communities around the country. And so that's going to be a factor. There are other issues, of course. Crime is always an issue. There could be some marginal impact from the war in Gaza in Michigan, for example, which could affect Joe Biden's results there. Abortion may be an issue in those states which have a referendum on the topic. But I think overall, the economy and immigration are probably the top two issues, as well as the health status of the candidates themselves. I hope they both remain very healthy, but that's going to be an issue.

Yeah, I think this year more than most, the VP candidate for both candidates is going to be more important than in the past. In years ago, sometimes they would pick Vice Presidents because of which state they were from in hopes of getting the electoral votes from that state, for example, Lyndon Johnson in 1960. But by and large, most of the VP candidates did not play a big role in the outcome. But this year, because of the age of each of the candidates, who the people are running as Vice President is going to be a factor and discussed more often than in the past. And that's why a lot of eyes are on Donald Trump in terms of who he is going to choose for his VP.

Sure. The nature of an X-factor is you can't predict what it's going to be, but you can predict something may happen. Going back to 1980, for example, the Iran hostage crisis certainly was an X-factor that impacted that election. In the year 2000, you had the Cole bombing as well. And in 2016, you had both the Access Hollywood tape and the email issues for Hillary Clinton, that was a factor. And in 2020, of course, was COVID, one of the biggest X-factors of all time. So those all were factors in the past. And in terms of what's going to happen this year, if either candidate had a medical emergency, that would certainly be a crisis of major proportions. Or if America experienced a natural disaster, or for example, the terror attack that happened in Russia recently, a terrible tragedy, if that had happened in America, that would have huge political repercussions. Or if there's a major cyber incident that affects stock markets or air travel, that would have consequences. And so we don't quite know what may occur between now and October, November, but we can expect the unexpected.

My bet right now is that there will not be debates, in part because I think, I don't know, but I think the Biden campaign may be reluctant to put him in a position where there is such high risk involved, where if he didn't perform at a great level, then it would be a huge problem very late in the game. The State of the Union was a high-profile event. I think he did quite well in that setting. But you know, what really counts is how people think about this in October. And so they'll have to make a decision. If President Biden remains behind in the key battleground states as he is now, they may decide to take that risk and push forward with a debate. But they may decide not to, in which case there would not be a debate. But there certainly have been decisive moments in the past in debates, going back to Kennedy and Nixon in 1960. In 1976, Gerald Ford, for example, talked about Poland not being under Soviet domination. That certainly had an impact in that campaign. In 1992, in the debate, George Bush was looking at his watch, suggesting he was bored or disengaged, and that hurt him. In the year 2000, Al Gore famously sighed and was confrontational in the debate, and that became an issue. And so these debates can have a big impact. And the other question to consider is whether there'd be a third party on the debate stage. For example, if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. were on the debate stage, it would certainly be a huge and enormous impact on how people talked about it and perhaps on votes.

There are procedures in place for a candidate who has to, you know, unfortunately come off the ballot for one reason or another. And it sort of depends on when that happens. For example, if it were to happen sooner, then obviously the delegates have been largely chosen, and so they could still meet in convention and then basically have an open convention and decide who the candidate's going to be. If it had to happen after the convention, each party has its own process where the DNC or the RNC would itself choose the candidate, or in the case of the RNC, as I understand it, they could call for another convention. But it certainly would be a chaotic moment. I do recall in 1968, it was at this time in 1968, Lyndon Johnson was still a candidate, and it was on March 30th of that year that he decided not to run. But there hasn't been much precedent otherwise for a dramatic change in an election year. The closest I can remember is a Vice Presidential candidate, Thomas Eagleton, had to come off the ticket, or did come off the ticket, in 1972, a couple weeks after the convention. He was going to be George McGovern's running mate, but he was replaced by Sergeant Shriver. But that was the VP level, so it was certainly a big story at the time, but not decisive.

Sure, I'd be happy to. Thank you.