CEO & Founder, Galaxy Digital
A Big Rally Is Coming... Prepare for a FACE-RIPPING Rally Before 2027 - Mike Novogratz
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Wall Street may be entering the most dangerous phase of the cycle — and according to billionaire investor Mike Novogratz, the rally may still be far from over.
In this video, we break down Novogratz’s explosive warning that the U.S. stock market is entering full bubble territory as AI mania, mega-IPOs, and falling rate expectations fuel what could become a historic “face-ripping” rally into 2026 and beyond.
With anticipated IP...
About Mike Novogratz
Mike Novogratz, the founder and CEO of Galaxy Digital, has been discussing the state of the cryptocurrency market and the broader economic landscape. In a June 2026 interview, Novogratz said that Bitcoin's price is likely to trade between $60,000 and $80,000 for the rest of the year, with $100,000 as a potential top if it breaks through $80,000. He attributed the cooling of crypto's speculative mania to a shift in narrative, stating that "crypto was a storytelling business" that allowed people to "gamble leveraged on these stories." Novogratz also commented on Michael Saylor, calling him "the face of the industry" and noting that when Saylor sells, it is "a real problem for the industry." He described former President Donald Trump's involvement in crypto as a "double-edged sword," noting that Trump earned $1.4 billion from crypto last year, which he said "out-earned every crypto company in America." In a May 2026 AMA, Novogratz discussed Galaxy Digital's operations and the regulatory environment. He expressed confidence that a crypto "Clarity Act" would pass, describing it as a "big, big part" of the industry's future. He also addressed the possibility of the U.S. government buying Bitcoin, saying the answer is "categorically no" regarding the use of taxpayer dollars, though he estimated a 50/50 chance of a symbolic move, such as seizing Bitcoin from Iran and placing it in a reserve. Novogratz has also spoken about the broader market, warning that "great bubbles end with something symbolic," and suggested that upcoming IPOs from companies like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic could be a symbolic end to the current tech rally. He advised investors to "keep dancing when the music's playing" but to be "very quick to get out."
Transcript (9 segments)
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Mike Novogratz0:00
I have been saying here in my office, great markets, great bubbles end with something symbolic. You got to keep dancing when the music's playing and be very quick to get out. Like, you know, if you want to short things now, you don't short them, you actually buy puts. It will get to the back end, oil will get to the 60s.
Okay, so I mean that gives our friend Kevin Warsh some amplitude, right? To cut rates. The moment that happens, Europe's only raising 25. Warsh is starting to change his tune and by the end of the year he's cutting rates, right? Not just fighting off people who want to hike. And so that could be the last juice that this market needs to have it rip your face off.
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Narrator0:39
The market is euphoric again. Tech stocks are ripping higher. Artificial intelligence has become the center of the global investment narrative. And Wall Street is once again starting to believe that this time is different. But according to billionaire investor and Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz, that kind of thinking is exactly what creates the biggest bubbles in history. For years, investors warned about the dominance of the so-called Magnificent 7. Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Tesla already pushed technology stocks inside the S&P 500 to historic extremes. But now, Wall Street is preparing for something even bigger. The anticipated mega IPOs of SpaceX, OpenAI, and potentially Anthropic could push technology stocks toward nearly half of the entire S&P 500. That is bubble territory by almost every historical standard. And here's the part that should really get crypto investors paying attention. Many experts do not believe this signals the end of the rally. They believe it could be the beginning. Novogratz argues that great bubbles do not quietly fade away. They end with something symbolic, something so massive, so futuristic, and so emotionally compelling that it pulls in the final wave of investors before reality eventually catches up. In the late 1990s, it was AOL merging with Time Warner. During the Asian financial miracle, it was the Hong Kong handover celebrations. And now, Novogratz believes the symbolic peak of this era could be the IPOs of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic. Trillion-dollar base companies promising humanity a future of Mars colonies, orbital data centers, and recursive artificial intelligence. And in today's video, we're breaking down Mike Novogratz's full warning about the market bubble forming right now. Why the IPO frenzy surrounding SpaceX and AI companies could fuel years more upside before the collapse eventually comes. Why he believes investors should stay positioned while quietly buying protection. And most importantly, what all of this means for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the future of crypto markets heading into the second half of 2026. Because if Novogratz is right, we may be entering the most dangerous and potentially most profitable phase of the entire cycle. So, make sure to stick around until the very end of this video. If you enjoy macro analysis, crypto market breakdowns, and institutional insights that the mainstream media usually misses, make sure to like this video, subscribe to the channel, and turn on post notifications so you never miss our next update.
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Mike Novogratz3:20
I have been saying here in my office, great markets, great bubbles end with something symbolic. The NASDAQ bubble ended with the merger of AOL and Time Warner. The '97 Asia miracle ended with the Hong Kong handover and all those fireworks. What could be symbolic is the IPO of SpaceX or the three of them together. It's 4 trillion of market cap. It'll be 125 billion of new money needed to fund those IPOs or more, 150 billion. That's just a huge amount of supply coming on the market. And so if we look back and SpaceX was the high, it won't surprise anybody with hindsight, right? That's how markets end. Something symbolic. And it's a pretty symbolic largest IPO of all time. And it's not just large. It's the guy who's a trillionaire who's seeing into the stars and saying, 'I'm going to do data centers in the stars. We're going to Mars. We're going to have colonies on the moon.' Like, we really are going into the future in Elon's story. And that's what inspires investors. And at one point, everyone's in and there's no one else to buy. And so that's how the market very well could end. And I have been positioning, you know, you got to keep dancing when the music's playing and be very quick to get out. Like, you know, if you want to short things now, you don't short them. You actually buy puts. Like when I think about how you approach a market that you think might be in a bubble, the number one trader in the freaking planet right now is King Leopold. You know, he was a young guy that left Anthropic and started a hedge fund and he has been hot as a pistol. And he publishes, you know, every quarter what he's long, short, and just recently he spent a fortune on puts. I think he has got like four or five billion dollars of notional puts. That's what you're supposed to do. Not sell and get short a market that could rip your face off. But if you want to play for the reversal, if you think the SpaceX thing is the end, buy a bunch of puts and buy them out long enough that you've got some staying power in them. It's expensive, but it's a lot less expensive than selling Nvidia at 5 trillion and watching it go to 10 trillion. Could Nvidia go to 10 trillion? Of course it could. That's what bubbles do. They get expensive. You know, this is what we always say in our world. The market climbs a wall of worry. We're worried about these different things, but you know, the bull case is you get a deal, oil goes back down into the 80s. I mean, it was trading in the high 50s, mid 60s, but even down to the oil will get to the back end. Oil will get to the 60s.
Okay. So, I mean, that gives our friend Kevin Warsh some amplitude, right? To cut rates. The moment that happens, Europe's only raising 25. Warsh is starting to change his tune and by the end of the year he's cutting rates, right? Not just fighting off people who want to hike. And so that could be the last juice that this market needs to have it rip your face off. You know, it's again, I wish I had a better crystal ball. I try to create ballets like potential stories and then see how the details fill into which of those stories. And the key is at this stage of a market, you've got to be able to act quickly and you have some protection, you know, some insurance. And that insurance is not going to bail you out, but it's going to give you courage when it starts working to say, 'Hey, that thesis is happening. The world might have changed. Therefore, let me actually let go of the stuff that I've been holding on so desperately to.' Because the way you get rich is to ride trends. And it's really hard to ride trends. We used to call it the pain of the game. You have to handcuff yourself to the chair so you don't sell the thing that's going up every day.
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Narrator7:17
What makes Novogratz's warning so important is that he is not calling for an immediate crash. In fact, his entire framework is built around the idea that bubbles can stay irrational for far longer than most investors expect. That is exactly why he keeps repeating the phrase 'keep dancing while the music is playing.' In his view, markets are entering the dangerous phase where fundamentals start mattering less than narratives, momentum, and liquidity. Investors are no longer simply buying earnings growth or cash flow projections. They are buying visions of the future: artificial intelligence, space infrastructure, recursive AI systems, autonomous economies. Entire industries are now being priced as if technological transformation is inevitable and unlimited. And historically, that is exactly how major speculative cycles accelerate. And as the conversation shifts away from AI euphoria and toward deeper structural problems inside the global economy—debt, inequality, taxation, government spending, monetary debasement, and political instability—the discussion naturally moves back toward the original reason Bitcoin was created in the first place.
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Mike Novogratz8:28
There is going to be a revolution of sorts, right? You don't know how it's going to show up. With pitchforks or at the voting booth, or can people get ahead with tax? The problem we have with our tax code is Jeff is right. 3% of the taxes come from that bottom 50% and so it would be nice to give her that extra money. But he also said, 'Hey, changing my tax rate won't do much.' If you look at the actual tax rates people pay, not just income tax, but throw in payroll tax and social security tax, we don't really have a progressive tax structure. We used to, right? The middle class pays as much if not more tax than the wealthy class because of the way income is calculated, right? Capital gains versus income. And so we really do need tax reform. And Bezos is smart because he's saying, 'Hey, I see the pitchforks coming and therefore let me give some ideas that will help.' And that idea would help and I give him credit for saying that, but it's going to have to go a lot deeper than that to make the tax code be perceived to be fair and to actually be fair. Why should capital gains be so much of a lower tax rate than income? We're saying the guy who's just investing his money in Chevron, that's worth more than the guy who's toiling in the factory or toiling at the investment bank. Trump, I don't know if he meant to be smart, but he was smart in some ways. If you had just been honest about what tariffs were, you say, 'Hey, we're going to institute tariffs which are really a consumption tax and consumption taxes are regressive by definition but they're taxes that people don't feel is a tax on them, right? It's just a tax on the system that was raising so much revenue because it was a tax on everything imported, right? We import a lot of stuff from America.' Well, listen, it was an international VAT is what it really was, right? I mean, if you bought something overseas, yes, you got hit with it. So, even if you were in the black market economy, avoiding income taxes, you got hit with this consumption tax. So, what we're going to have to do as a government, I keep thinking about this, if it's going to be the energy tax or you've got to have taxes that collect enough revenue to actually have our place function and not just keep having the debt grow asymptotically. That in some ways are hidden, that in some ways don't feel like it's a direct assault on the wealthy or on the aspirational wealthy. Right? I mean, most Americans, that famous adage about most Americans look up the hill and saying, 'I want a house on the hill one day, not let's go burn that house down.' Exactly. And so, but it's challenging because there have been so many loopholes and so many ways that have benefited the top end of society that our actual tax rates are not near. You people bitching all the time, 'I'm moving out of New York.' When you look at people's average tax rates, and I can show mine on the freaking TV, they're actually not nearly as high as the W2 earner who makes a lot of money. And that's just because of capital gains and dividends. And I'm with, I just like the fact that we're now speaking about it more openly and hopefully we'll come up with some constructive solutions.
We're into the bullish and bearish segment. Okay. So, I'm going to read something. You're going to say bullish or bearish? Okay, you ready? Bitcoin reclaims 85,000 before the end of June. That would be wildly bullish. Okay. Do you think that will happen? Oh, I see. Aspirational. Yes. I think that's right around where clarity should be decided. I think I would, if you move that to the middle of July, I'd be bullish. All right. So, you think by the middle of July 85k is not unreasonable? Elon Musk successfully builds mega AI data centers in space. Bullish or bearish? I think bullish, the timeline is probably going to be a lot further than people expect. Anthropic valuation exceeds 5 trillion by 2030. Bullish. Right now Anthropic looks to be the winner, maybe the greatest monopoly in history if they actually keep, you know, get whoever gets this next leg up and gets the recursive. The question is, is that going to be a monopoly or will everyone else do it, too? I haven't figured that out yet. So, let's say the Anthropic guys are the first to get to recursive AI. Does that just mean, you know, you broke the four-minute mile, then I broke the four-minute mile. And so, yeah, it just seems like there's a gusher of money coming into this thing. So, we'll see if that's sustainable. All right, this is a big one, Michael. Will the US create a strategic Bitcoin reserve before 2028? Unfortunately, we have one. Will the US, let's rephrase the question, will the US use taxpayer dollars to buy Bitcoin? I think the answer is categorically no. Um, okay. Will they find a way that as well? Well, they find a way to do something symbolically. Yeah. 50/50. Yeah. They seize some Bitcoin from the Iranians and they put it in the reserve. That will happen. But is, do you sell gold to buy Bitcoin, which would be legal? I don't see that happening yet.
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Narrator14:11
In other news, Coinbase institutional analyst David Dwang believes Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have recently started decoupling from US equities altogether. While stock markets continue grinding higher despite geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran and the Middle East, Bitcoin's correlation with equities has actually been falling after peaking earlier this year. That divergence has confused many investors because this should theoretically be the exact environment where Bitcoin thrives. Weaker dollar conditions, rising global instability, increasing debt concerns, and expanding liquidity expectations. But underneath the surface, there are still several deeply bullish developments taking place inside crypto markets. Long-term Bitcoin holders continue accumulating rather than distributing. Institutional vehicles are still deploying billions into Bitcoin exposure. Liquidity conditions may improve sharply in the coming months as treasury spending injects capital back into financial markets. And Ethereum's narrative is beginning to strengthen again as fears around layer 2 competition start fading. While Ethereum increasingly dominates conversations surrounding AI infrastructure and quantum resistance systems, at the same time though, skepticism is clearly growing. Billionaire investor Mark Cuban recently admitted he sold most of his Bitcoin after becoming disappointed with its inability to behave like digital gold during recent geopolitical turmoil. Gold surged aggressively during the Iran conflict, while Bitcoin struggled to maintain momentum. For Cuban, that was a major blow to the original hedge thesis that convinced many traditional investors to enter the space in the first place. And unfortunately, that disappointment is spreading across parts of the market as some older holders begin capitulating after years of volatility and underperformance relative to expectations. Historically, the most explosive crypto rallies often emerge precisely when sentiment begins breaking down. Crypto has always been an emotionally exhausting asset class. It forces investors to survive extreme volatility, endless narratives, and repeated cycles of doubt before trends finally reassert themselves. And if Novogratz is correct that global markets are entering a final liquidity-fueled speculative phase driven by AI, falling rates, and expanding monetary conditions, many analysts believe crypto could still experience a delayed but violent upside repricing into late 2026 and potentially beyond. The biggest question now is timing. Will Bitcoin reclaim major psychological levels in the coming weeks as liquidity conditions improve? Will regulatory clarity finally unlock the next institutional wave? One thing is certain, the next few months could define the future direction of both traditional markets and crypto for years to come. So, what do you think? Is Mike Novogratz right that we are entering the beginning of a historic bubble fueled by AI and mega IPOs? Do you believe Bitcoin is simply lagging behind liquidity trends before another explosive move higher? Or are the warning signs from investors like Mark Cuban proof that crypto's biggest narratives are starting to weaken? Let me know your thoughts down in the comments below. And if you enjoyed this breakdown, make sure to leave a like on the video, subscribe to the channel, and turn on post notifications so you never miss our next deep dive into crypto, macro, and global markets. Thanks for watching, and we'll see you in the next one.