Ing. Carlos Slim Helú anuncia inversión de 5 mil mdp para México

Good afternoon. It's a pleasure to be here. The intention is to talk about the country, investment, what happened many years ago, what happened fewer years ago, and what is happening now.

I'll start very quickly with a brief outline, a reminder, because I think I've already mentioned some of this to you. During the Great Depression of the 1930s in the United States, it had consequences all over the world, and those consequences in Mexico were very important.

You'll remember that the American economy, besides the stock market crash in October 1929, was followed by a crisis situation. The market crash, values were substantially reduced, and the economy collapsed. The economy was very bad throughout the 30s: 30, 31, 32, 33, 34.

In '34, Roosevelt tried to improve the situation through some forced investment activities. It didn't work either. Until '38, '39, the US economy was in very bad condition, and of course, the world's too. Then came World War II, and obviously, in that very intense war, all the factories had to get to work. They were making armaments and a thousand other things. And during that time, Mexico was also very active producing in the factories.

Well, what happened was that around 1932, a general who was also a leader in Congress, named General Rafael Melgar, proposed and insisted on promoting a nationalist campaign. It was called the nationalist campaign.

That was around 1932, the nationalist campaign, and its message was 'consume what the country produces.' So it was a very important time to promote the country, promote consumption of products that Mexico produced.

This program was very intense. It had the association or collaboration of the National Confederation of Chambers of Commerce. The National Confederation of Chambers of Commerce joined the project, the legislative program, the executive, and in general, it was a very important campaign that was carried out in Mexico in 1932.

That led to several decisions, for example, reducing imports and increasing exports, and a series of economic decisions, import substitution also from that era, and a great industrialization began. That promotion of industry started to give greater relevance to industry over commerce, which was very important. Commerce was very important, but it involved many imports that had been made for many years.

So, the country's industrialization also begins. Investment starts to become prominent, and it turns out that Mexico begins to grow economically in 1933 in a significant way. From 1933 to 1981, that's 49 years of Mexico. Mexico grew at 6.2%. It had a very large growth of 6.2%, but at the same time, there was also great population growth.

The population at that time was around 15 or 18%. The population was approximately that. Before the revolution, it was around 15%. During the revolution, besides many people dying, many people left the country, and the Mexican population was reduced. It recovered by the late 30s; by 1940, we were about 20 million, approximately 18 to 20 million, and the population started to grow a lot. Many people also came from rural areas to join the urban areas. That's how the cities of Mexico City and other states grew.

Mexico City at that time was relatively very small, especially the center, where almost the majority of the population lived. There were many other areas with development that dated back to pre-Hispanic times, in Texcoco, Coyoacán, Tlalpan, Tacubaya, etc. Azcapotzalco had a lot of housing. A very large growth of Mexico City began. So, that growth was very important.

And especially, there were some very impactful years in Mexico, from 1958 to 1970. We had a great Secretary of the Treasury named Antonio Ortiz Mena. The economy grew at 6.8%. It grew at 6.8% from 1958 to '70, with an inflation of 2.2%. Inflation was perhaps even a little lower than in the United States, and it grew at 6.8%.

In the 6 years prior, we also grew very well under the government of Ruiz Cortines. Those 6 years saw very good growth, but there was a devaluation. It was when the dollar... well, the peso went from 8.65 to 12.50. That was in 1954, it went to 12.50. Curiously, it was devalued a bit during Holy Week, and curiously, every year before Holy Week, everyone bought dollars or believed it would devalue every year. It then went 22 years without devaluing the peso. The peso, as I said, was worth 12.50.

Then come two more governments. In the inertia, Echeverría's had economic inertia, and with President López Portillo, there is substantial growth because the production of oil in Mexico is boosted, which is very notable. I had a little sheet here. Well, I have it somewhere. The oil production was very notable, and the price of oil was also very notable. Oil was heavily penalized because the famous 'Seven Sisters' bought from producers at a very low price, I think around $3 in 1973, and it rose to $40 in those years, before dropping substantially in the 80s.

Here, oil production was 290,000 barrels with López Mateos, 370,000 with Díaz Ordaz, 570,000 with Echeverría, and 1,800,000 with López Portillo. With de la Madrid, Salinas de Gortari, Zedillo, but especially with Presidents Fox and Calderón, it was 3 million barrels of oil daily. It was an income, for example, with López Mateos, $1.8 billion came in, with Díaz Ordaz $2.4 billion, with Echeverría $10 billion, and $100 billion with López Portillo.

Starting with López Portillo, oil production is large and the price of oil is high. At that time, as I was saying, oil was worth $3, but with President López Portillo, the average was $25.80. And then oil had some drops, but in the era of Calderón, especially late Fox and during Enrique Peña and López Obrador, and currently, oil has values of $60, $70.

Right now, with that tragedy of wars that are becoming constant, it has gone to $95, $100, etc. Well, oil production was very important in these eras, but I return to the past: we grew at 6.2% during those 49 years.

Then comes a crisis, a crisis in '82 that has effects from '81-'82, where there is high inflation in the United States, double-digit inflation. That double-digit inflation was very delicate. The United States had double-digit inflation, and the head of the Central Bank unfortunately made very radical decisions and raised the dollar interest rate to 20%, 21%.

So, the interest rate, which right now is at 3 or 4, at 5, was raised to 21%. And obviously, all debtor countries like Mexico, which had taken on a lot of debt, besides the $100 billion from oil, the income and production rose, the debt rose to $50 billion. That meant we had to pay $10 billion a year in interest. This, with all the countries that had certain debt, caused a great external debt crisis starting around '82, which made conditions very difficult for the country throughout the de la Madrid government, because there was no credit, the country was indebted, it didn't have the capacity to pay those $10 billion, but it wasn't just Mexico, it was many countries, especially developing countries that had to pay those large amounts of interest at 20% in dollars.

So, that stage passes, and unfortunately, from then on, Mexico for 44 years, here I have my accordion, for 44 years, that is, starting from '82, the first 6 years were very difficult, there was no access to external credit, there were many limitations. Then that was released in '89 and the country started to have great economic activity, but the growth of Mexico during those years was less than 1.9%. During those years, to date, less than 1.9%.

That less than 1.9% was accompanied by a population growth of more than 1.5%. That means the growth of per capita income was less than 0.4%. I believe that based on these difficult years, which were many, well, some were of high income and good activity, but we didn't know what was happening with the resources because there was a huge amount here: in one government, $230 billion, in the next, $466 billion in income from oil alone, the next year $304 billion, and $251 billion. So we had a huge income from oil, daily we had 3 million barrels.

So, in summary, during all those years, total income per inhabitant rose 30%, which is very low. And unfortunately, there has been a great reduction in people with employment who have had to leave or have gone to the United States to work. They talk about 35 to 40 million Mexicans in the United States, some without documents, others who have had authorizations but have had problems.

We know, we see that the current US government has been harsh with all people, including families, breaking them up, etc. But at the same time, they have a great need for Mexico. They have a great need for Mexico because in the United States, the vast majority of the population is in services, they are no longer in industry, they are no longer industrial workers, and almost all of them are in services, and a good percentage is joining the technology sector, preparing for it, working on it.

And as you know, they invented the transistor, but then all that work went to China and Taiwan, etc. It has now returned to the United States, and in general, what the United States has is a very limited, weak industry because it's no longer competitive. For example, in the automotive industry, it's not very competitive, but especially in the steel industry, where they were great leaders in the golden years of US industry, now their costs are very high, their hours are low, and it's not competitive. That's why you may have heard a declaration from President Trump talking about a 50% surcharge on steel imports as tariffs. They also did it with copper and other products.

Well, that's the main topic. The image is the history, it's the history, but looking at things in the present, although there is some pessimism from some who believe we are doing very badly, well, we have some problems. One of them, perhaps the most important, is the great drop in oil production, and the situation of Pemex, the situation of Pemex and the drop in oil production. I was telling you about 3.2 million barrels, and from those 3.2 million barrels, right? It's 3.27 million barrels daily for 6 years. That's the Fox government. 2.9 million barrels with Zedillo, 2.58 million with de la Madrid. Those are fantastic amounts. Right now we are talking about maybe, I don't know, a million and a half, 1.6 million, I don't know exactly how many. Let's assume it's a million and a half barrels.

Well, it's extremely low compared to what it should be. At this moment, with the price of a barrel at $100, $90, $105, $110, obviously those who are very favored are the United States. The United States, I don't know how many barrels, we are talking about 14 million barrels daily and probably more. Then it has exports or sales of 1.8 million barrels daily of diesel. We know it has many refineries for gasoline. So, the amounts being used are enormous, and in addition to that, we know that one of the countries with the most oil resources is Venezuela, but from 4 million barrels it produced at one time, it dropped to 600,000 barrels. That's why it was in those circumstances. It dropped to 600,000 barrels and I think it had risen to 800,000. They say it's now at 1.2 million barrels, so they have raised their production very quickly. So we are seeing very strong activity given the great crisis that is happening.

Well, that is a historical picture with some of the current situation. Mexico, I believe, is returning to very important potential conditions to return to its intense growth, to its greater growth, let's say, to a growth that is no longer 1.5% as it was before. And speaking of per capita growth, in Mexico, we should think that since the birth rate is dropping a lot, and besides the drop in birth rate, many people have left the rural sector. Before, high birth rate was very necessary so the whole family could work, the children, the women, the young people, etc. But now, as there has been enormous growth in the urban area, in the urban area, before, for example, an example I saw some years ago in the United States, the rural area was 70-something percent of the population and then it became 2% or 3%. In Mexico, we also have great growth in the urban area, and women, increasingly in these conditions, have a higher level of education and work. So, normally, children come at a later age, there are fewer children, etc. Population growth is lower.

And it's very interesting, for example, in all our scholarship programs we have at universities, especially at UNAM, there are more women than men. In all professional studies, there are more women than men. Well, so currently, what is the situation in Mexico? We have a large number of trained women, trained men. We have an enormous potential of workers who are excellent, and when they go to work in the United States, we see how they progress, how the great American industries in Mexico claim them. They are workers of great efficacy. We know them, we have many of them working, working very well, and there is potential to create more jobs and for there to be more economic activity, which I'll talk about later.

So, regarding the capacity, the training level of the Mexican worker is among the highest in many places. In Latin America, I think there are other places where there is also great capacity, but Mexico is notable for its work capacity, and the good thing is that it's leveling out, that this is starting to be linked with minimum wage increases to higher levels, as is happening, and as has been promoted, and as the business sector is also supporting better income levels. And that also has a very important effect, and it has had it and will have it more and more on the socioeconomic level of the population. It's very important that that figure the government gives of 40 or 50 million people in poverty, I don't know if you've read that data, is substantially reduced, and those in extreme poverty even more so. But these people need to incorporate into education, work, especially employment, with health, etc. That incorporation becomes very important because it's not just support for the population in that situation, but incorporating them into the economy, into the internal market, into the national economy, which makes the economy bigger. I don't know if I'm explaining myself. It's different to have 50 million in that situation than for those 50 million to be integrating into economic activity, employment, work, education, and having good incomes. That is an extraordinary potential that we have and that we have to develop. The salary has been improving, we are at increasingly adequate levels, and with work, it can be complemented.

Well, so we are talking about what the situation is now. One is that there is a large number of people available or in need, and on one hand, it's the need to work, and on the other, the convenience of having people who can enter the workforce. The other things I see as very positive are, for example, the efforts the president has made to control inflation. That has been very important, controlling inflation, because by controlling inflation, it prevents it from skyrocketing and affecting even more those who have the least, because if you have a certain income level, inflation takes it away and you lose the characteristics or lifestyle with that lower inflation. So, she is slowing it down.

The most notable way she is slowing it down is with gasoline. Gasoline in the United States has risen and has risen in many places in the world due to the increase in oil. Here, through the tax that gasoline had, the IEPS, she is trying to keep gasoline prices stable because gasoline has many effects on public transport, general transport, all these things, it affects a lot and has inflationary effects, which is a bit of what's happening in the United States trying to slow it down, but it's very difficult if this lasts many months to be able to slow down gasoline as is being done here. So, we have more, she is very careful with gasoline, more with inflation everywhere. You've already seen the links to protect popular family consumption, to be of a certain level, and for self-service stores to respect it or receive it, be in agreement with it, and in the morning press conferences, they say which stores, in what place are selling the family package at one price, at another. So, all that is very important.

But on the other hand, it's also important, from another business perspective, that the interest rate is at 6.5%. It's very, well, I would say, I don't remember interest rates at 6.5% and going down, that is, the interest rate is at 6.5%. In the times of 6.8% economic growth of Ortiz Mena and the governments of López Mateos and Díaz Ordaz, the 6.8% growth, the interest rate at which you could buy sight bonds and such was 9% with inflations of 2.5%, so there was a real return. Right now, with inflations of 4.5%, it's at 6.5%, so the real rate is only 2% additional cost. In that era, it was 9% against 2.5%. And that means that this low interest rate induces a lot of investment. Because what do you prefer? A company or an entrepreneur or a person to invest their savings or resources at 6.5% interest or to invest them in a business project that will yield 12%, 15%, etc.? So, that makes it very easy to think that there is enough or a lot of patrimony available for investment. This is the investment that instead of investing at 6.5%, invests in development and industrial development, etc.

But there is also the money from the banks. Mexican banks only have, I think, about 37% of GDP financed. When you look at Brazil, how much they have, I think 80%, I don't know how much. That is, Mexico is one of the countries where banks have the lowest amount of financing as part of GDP, so they invest little in business financing. 70 to 75 in Brazil, and here 40. So it's very low. That means if there starts to be industrial investment, business investment in general, or construction of everything we have, for example, in the real estate area, what needs to be done in the industrial area, in the infrastructure area, that is very important, the infrastructure area. There is a lot of delay, it creates a lot of employment, just like housing. I don't know if you noticed that Infonavit, which hadn't worked for many years, the financing rate that workers had at Infonavit was 2,200 or something, it has now gone to 6,600 pesos of financing.

It's the limit, not the maximum. It's 600, right? Well, it means that before a worker could receive 2 million in credit, they can now receive 6 million in credit for a worker who wants a house. So, that will induce the construction of many houses. So, what is called the real estate area, a lot of housing construction, but also I don't know if you've noticed that there is a lot of talk about distribution centers. Many centers are being built, they are built like warehouses or such, and there, for example, commercial companies store their merchandise, concentrate their merchandise, and from there distribute it to several stores, for example, Walmart, Mercado Libre, what's it called? Amazon. They distribute, they have their distribution areas, distribution centers. And from there, so there is an enormous real estate construction project. Both for that reason I was telling you about housing, the current development, if you look, for example, there are hundreds of buildings. Yes, you've seen them everywhere, you'll see them over there in Interlomas, hundreds of buildings.

And what happens is that in my time, which was many years ago, people wanted to live in houses, not in apartments. Now it's the opposite. People want apartments, but also if it weren't for the buildings being built, the extension right now would reach Acapulco, I don't know where we'd be, right? Well, exaggerating, Cuernavaca, because if all this that is being done as buildings were done horizontally, it would be enormous. So, the growth of real estate investment in buildings and such is another growth in commercial zones, in commercial projects, investment is also being made. So, the real estate issue, and I had an accordion I made last night, but I don't know where it is, but the real estate investment... well, hospitals are also being built, universities are being built. You know, I don't know, maybe looking for, since there is no capacity to enter UNAM because there are many who demand it, they enter the Universidad del Valle de México, university of this, university of that, the one in Monterrey, etc. From having had one university, the Tec de Monterrey or such, now there are many universities. The real estate construction is very large. I hadn't mentioned this before.

And now we talk about infrastructure. Infrastructure is demanding a lot of labor, and that is very good. It's very good. First, because the country demands infrastructure, and second, because it's the way to create a lot of employment. So, they are two very important factors. Now, where is the infrastructure problem? Everywhere. For example, you know that to go to Querétaro, the traffic is a bit complicated, right? Well, we are already building a highway to Querétaro, a section of highway to Querétaro to open it up. In two possibilities, that in the area of the, what's it called? Arco Norte. So, cars come from Puebla, from the entire southeast, they come from here from Interlomas, from everywhere, they go through the Arco Norte and there will be a special highway that will lead to Querétaro. So, all these types of things are urgent. We have problems with water, we have problems with many things due to infrastructure.

So, look, among other things, the trains that are being built, gas pipelines, oil pipelines, for what we talked about with oil, viaducts in cities, because they are the famous second levels, because traffic can no longer be handled horizontally, there have to be viaducts to handle traffic, aqueducts. There are many cities that have problems with aqueducts for water management. Water treatment plants, desalination plants for water, garbage management, garbage handling, incinerators, drills, total water administration also, potabilization, correction of urban water networks, electricity generation, wind, hydroelectric, solar, combined cycle, geothermal, transmission and distribution networks that we are behind on. So, we have countless needs and we have a low interest rate that encourages money to finance the execution. So, what is lacking and what is in process is that we start doing all these things.

For example, in the oil issue, we need to put in oil, but have adequate refining and have the gas that is so important, not only as a combined cycle and that we import from elsewhere, but gas for petrochemicals, etc., construction, industrial development. So, I think I've already told you many things, I don't know if it's better to comment on them. Let me, some have arrived there. Give me 5 minutes.

Ask me.

Before starting with the questions, I have to say something that I commented on here with Don Cervantes. Well, sorry, wait a moment for the questions. I forgot to mention that the president has put investment almost in first place, because without investment there is no employment, there is no solution to these issues, they keep getting delayed, there is no maintenance of things, etc. So, a council has been formed, I forgot, Paco, what is it? National Investment Council, a National Investment Council that is chaired by Mr. Francisco Cervantes, which the president of the Republic induced, who invited us to participate and form it, and we are a little more than 20 people, businessmen from Monterrey, from Mexico, from several other places, and the intention of that council, which we have already met a few times, is first, it serves to present what we are doing, what we are investing in, and what other investment alternatives there are beyond what we have been talking about. But also, since the meetings are with the cabinet secretaries, then the secretaries of state know what is being done here and that a simplification of procedures, spaces, institutions, etc., that complicate investment is requested. So, there is talk of a single window, for example. And there is a lot of care on the part of the government that there is no obstruction to investment. On the contrary, what is being done is promoting investment, and for that, there is, as I was saying, the single window, and it has been interesting because not only is investment and the federal issue being proposed, but we are also talking with the states to make investments in the states, which are very important, and even with the municipalities, and there in these meetings, each person presents what they feel is bothering them or what to do, what to correct, and they are very, how shall I say, direct, open, cordial, they have been important because we are already, in the last meeting, we already presented, I am going to invest so much in such things, but other additional things arise because of this. I don't know if you want to comment on something, Paco.

Thank you. And the Free Trade Agreement made in '94 with the United States, which is under discussion now, caused Mexico to export more to the United States than it imports from the United States, and that was because many American companies came to install in Mexico, they came to install in Mexico because the worker is much more efficient, costs are lower, there are no American-style coffee breaks and all that type of thing. And so, Mexico's commercial super-surplus has been very important, which I think is around $250 billion, but also one of the subsequent governments opened up to imports. So, many years ago, before the last century ended, a lot was imported. I think we have a deficit of about $20 billion because we import a lot from other countries. So, here too, what is being promoted is to resolve import substitution, that the excess of imports, which is enormous, which gives us a commercial deficit of about $270 billion, that we start substituting that import with production. And today, this wasn't my fault or anything, I didn't do it on purpose, it says we have a surplus of 21%, an increase in exports of 21% against an import of 19%. I think it's one of the few times we've had a general commercial surplus. And I forgot to say that in '33 and in that era of '33, one of the criteria was to import less and export more to avoid capital flight, it said. So, what is happening now is also that there is an attitude of substituting imports and importing less. What the United States is doing, if you notice, it lowered, on purpose, the exchange rate, let's say, it devalued the dollar.

So, why did it do that, make the dollar worth less? And on top of that, it added tariffs. It's that the United States is very indebted. It's around 39, probably this year it will end with 39 or 40 trillion dollars in debt as a peak. The debt is one of the largest, but not only one of the largest, but it is growing. So, President Trump is suddenly pushing with tariffs, etc., so that Americans don't import goods. What he is looking for is to import less and export more, for the United States to import less and export more. That is a very important factor because, suppose the rate were 5%, it's at 3, right? 3 in the United States. Yes, 3.60. Suppose it were 5% and it owes 40 trillion dollars. It's going to pay 2 trillion dollars in interest, which is a fortune. Then it has the armament that costs who knows what, the budget is set at so much. So they have an enormous deficit due to the fiscal deficit. The debt is enormous and that's why they are trying to slow it down. Also for that reason, it is seeking to pay less interest and it fights with the head of the Central Bank, because a new one has already entered because inflation is higher than the interest rate, and so it is pressuring for the rate, I think right now it's already lower or equal, right? Interest rate and inflation are around 3%, right? It could be that with oil, with what is happening with oil, I regret the increase in gasoline, I think the interest rate is already below inflation, but anyway they are careful because they have an enormous deficit and that is the problem of the United States.

So, ours, as you can see, for example, we had an investment plan, we already made it more aggressive, we already made it more aggressive because we are seeing, as Paco said, in the infrastructure area, there is a lot of work to do. We have a company called Ideal, which has made great investments, it works exclusively, basically in Mexico, and it turns out that in 12 years it hasn't had projects, or 14, I don't remember how many. And now it is already doing, for example, the highway to Querétaro, it is looking at viaducts, it is looking at other types of things, right? There too, it will be necessary that the work or the installations of the states or the municipalities of the infrastructure that the State does not have to finance it or the government to finance it. We have to seek mechanisms through concessions, for example, to provide support like a...

garantía al empresario que la construye, a la empresa que lo construye gratis, una garantía de una forma de pago del proyecto. Entonces, hay mucho por hacer. Yo creo que se va a notar el año que entra, pero pues si quieren ya nos arrancamos con las preguntas. Creo que estuvieron más largas que las primeras, pero esas son las preguntas. Gracias.

No, para damas primero, luego ya revuelto.

Bueno, yo lo que mencioné casi es el crecimiento económico por todos lados. Y por ejemplo, por la infraestructura es muy importante y por la vivienda es muy importante y en la construcción es muy importante porque da mucho empleo. En Pemex no da mucho empleo. En Pemex es el valor del petróleo. Ya se abre el pozo y ahora le sacan petróleo. Ahí lo que creo que está diciendo la presidenta es que quiere llevar a 1,800,000 barriles diarios, que es una muy buena cantidad, a Pemex. A ese nivel de 1,800,000 estaría en muy buenas condiciones Pemex. Pero acuérdense que en la época de Peña entraron muchas empresas internacionales, incluso nacionales a concursos. Entonces, una cosa es el petróleo que produzca Pemex, que es urgente que ya lo haga. Yo creo que lo que debe hacer Pemex es concentrarse en producir petróleo. El punto débil de Pemex y del país, las deudas de Pemex y todo eso, la falta de pago de Pemex, es porque trae baja producción y una gran estructura y costos y gastos. Lo que debe hacer es producir petróleo. Ahora, hubiera sido impresionante que tuviera, por ejemplo, 2 millones de barriles ahorita a 100 dólares. Afortunadamente con el petróleo que tiene, no sé cuánto sea, sea 1,400, no sé, un 500 o lo que sea, lo está vendiendo, está evaluando, entonces lo puede absorber cosas. Entonces, yo creo que ella está pensando en tener a la brevedad a Pemex con 1,800,000 barriles y con grandes reservas. Me imagino que es eso. Probablemente si sube el petróleo a lo mejor le baja un poquito a la producción o si se baja el petróleo le sube a la producción. No sé si me explico, para mantener un, por ejemplo, si está a 60 a 80 el petróleo y se le baja a 60, pues a lo mejor como tiene reservas le va a subir la producción. ¿Sí me explico? Que eso le sirve para ajustarse.

Ahora, por otro lado, aprovecho lo que van a preguntar de eso para decir, no la he leído la hoja, por acá la traigo, de que en 2 años, eso pensamos, en 3 años, voy a exagerar, dos o tres años yo creo que se va a lograr producir como un millón de barriles, a lo mejor le exagero un poco, adicionales. Pero por ejemplo, hicimos un acuerdo con Pemex, que no tiene recursos para financiar y para pagar y para tal. Hicimos un acuerdo con Pemex de hacer entre 16 y 32 perforaciones en un campo que se llama Ixachi, que es un campo fantástico que produce, tiene ahorita 30, ¿cuántos chilquil? 31 o 34.5. ¿Cuántos? 35. No le di. Bueno, 35 pozos. Hace un rato, hace unos meses tenía 28. Tiene 35 pozos en ese gran campo y faltan por hacer como 20 pozos. Esos 35 pozos, unos producen 3,000 barriles, otros 5,000 barriles. En promedio, ¿cuánto produce? Y 5,000 barriles diarios cada pozo y aparte traen mucho gas. Entonces, hay que aprovechar también el gas porque el petróleo se aprovecha todo, pero el gas hay que aprovecharlo más. Entonces ese solo campo va a producir como 200,000 barriles para dentro de 2 años. Va a haber mucha inversión en petróleo. Está habiendo mucha inversión en petróleo que va a subir, yo espero la producción en petróleo entre privada y pública.

¿Cuántos, Alex? Chile aquel no está Alejandro. ¿Dónde está? ¿Cuántos barriles? Como 800,000 barriles, yo creo. ¿Estás de acuerdo o no? Habla. Está porque está este pozo. Hay un campo en aguas profundas que están operando los australianos. Están empezando a perforar, que está como a 2,500 m de profundidad. Nosotros estamos asociados con una empresa americana y otra inglesa y con el gobierno y con Pemex en un campo que es de 180 m, que era muy difícil hacerlo con plataformas fijas, que está planteándose hacerse con una semisumergible con anclas, y que esperamos que empiece en una primera tanda de 60,000 a 100,000 barriles en un año y medio o un poco más y o sea ya empezando a trabajar 1,500,000 y digo un año y medio y como 50,000 barriles o 60,000 y luego abrir otros pozos para estar en niveles de 90 o 100,000 barriles de producción de petróleo en 3 años o 3 y medio.

¿Qué más? Las convocatorias del PM. ¿Qué más? Sí, que si algo tiene que ver la cercanía que tenemos con el gobierno. No sé qué tiene que ver América Móvil. Yo creo que andas por otro lado. ¿Qué? De petróleo y también a través de... A ver, de América Móvil es una empresa que empieza siendo Telcel, que entra a competir cuando ya están dos empresas desde un año antes, cuando entramos a Telcel en el 91 tenía solamente 35,000 clientes de telefonía móvil. Hicimos una propuesta en algo que fue público, que fue un proyecto, un programa de 3 años para llegar a 200,000 clientes. Ese era Telcel y mucho más grande era Yusatel y la otra que no me acuerdo cómo se llama. Entonces, éramos tres competidores, nosotros entramos al último y entramos con 35,000 clientes. Eso nos hicimos el plan de 3 años de 200,000, si mal no recuerdo, llegamos como a 220 o 230. Entonces, eso era 1994. Cuando entra la crisis de 95, ¿se acuerdan? del 95, que es una situación muy difícil. Se nos ocurrió algo que tuvo mucho éxito mundialmente, que es el prepago. Entonces, en lugar de que la gente que estaba en condiciones difíciles tuviera que pagar una mensualidad, compraba tarjetas con 20 llamadas o 50 llamadas y compraba lo que quería y hablaba lo que quería. Sí, eso lo derivamos del teléfono público. El teléfono público lo manejamos con tarjetas de prepago que se llaman. Entonces, por eso la telefonía la dimos de prepago. Entonces, empezamos el proyecto de hacer teléfonos muy económicos, digo, darlos a muy buen precio para que la gente comprara muy barato los teléfonos, pudiera tener teléfonos y comprar la tarjeta a conveniencia, no sé si me explico. Entonces, primero se buscó que hubiera muchos teléfonos y a partir de 95 empezamos a crecer mucho. Tanto que en Estados Unidos tuvimos una empresa de 130,000 clientes que compramos como a los 3 años del 96, 97, 98 y llegó a 25 millones de clientes y la vendimos a Verizon, que era el que nos daba el MB, etcétera. Entonces, los competidores tuvieron antes que nosotros. Punto número uno, nos hicieron una... hubo una cosa muy desagradable por ahí de 2009, creo que fue 2010, que estábamos en la competencia. Hasta ahora, después de 25 años no le han autorizado a Telmex tener televisión de paga. El primero se formó un cartel, luego estaban tal. Total, que no ha tenido televisión de paga que le haya autorizado ningún gobierno, incluyendo el de López Obrador, que nos había dicho que sí, porque son las televisoras y se le da a las televisoras y no. Bueno, con todo y eso Telmex compite sin televisión de paga. Entonces ellos lo que hacen es que venden cara la televisión de paga, muy cara la televisión de paga, porque no tienen competencia y con eso venden sus... ¿Cómo se llaman? Bueno, ese es un asunto de América Móvil. En otra ocasión, la ley dice que el que define los cargos de interconexión es el IFT. En aquella época, Cofetel, no se ha cambiado de nombre, creo que era el IFT. Entonces, el IFT decide que nosotros paguemos 30 centavos a los competidores y ellos nos paguen 20 centavos. Entonces era la decisión del IFT. Entonces llega por ahí un funcionario público de alto nivel y mete al Congreso de que nosotros no podemos, que nosotros no cobremos interconexión. Nos tardamos 2 años y medio en la Suprema Corte para aclarar ese asunto y por supuesto bloquearon que no se pagara, etcétera. Eran pues los abusos que hacían con Telmex y con América Móvil aquí en México. Esos son dos comentarios, hay muchos. Por ejemplo, a los que le dieron el subsidio en la competencia, pues normalmente uno compite con otra empresa nacional, etcétera. Ahí competimos con las dos con la más grande del mundo que era AT&T, con la más grande de Iberoamérica que era Telefónica. O sea, no estábamos compitiendo con la Lupita y con la... No, era Telefónica y AT&T. Eran las más grandes, una de Iberoamérica y otra del mundo en tus clientes. Y ahí funcionamos, bueno, primero en la larga distancia competimos contra AT&T, la segunda de larga distancia que era MCI y ellos asociados con Banamex, asociados con Bancomer y asociados con Alfa, que es una de las empresas. Eran las también ahí con todos ellos competimos con todos ellos, o sea, que competencia de a deveras. Nosotros estamos prácticamente 91, ¿cuántos años van? Como 9 más 35 años. Hemos tenido a los competidores, a todos los competidores más grandes que nosotros, enormes. Y la verdad es que el trabajador de Telmex ha sido muy eficaz, ha hecho grandes cosas, resuelve muchas cosas, atiende muchas cosas y la verdad es que ha sido gracias a ellos que Telmex ha sobrevivido como ha estado. Ah, perdón. Y luego hemos crecido a otros lados y estamos en 24 países. O sea, que cosa que no hay ninguna otra empresa de telecomunicaciones que esté en 24 países. Ninguna.

Gracias. ¿Cuál fue la primera parte? Sí, que hemos platicado con el gobierno para las inversiones en telecomunicaciones. Ah, concretamente telecomunicaciones. Mejor hablo un poquito antes. Lo que ha sido interesante, no usual, es que hay una comunicación privada con el gobierno para promover la inversión y ejecutar la inversión en general en telecomunicaciones. Históricamente, Telmex y Telcel han hecho grandes inversiones en México. Desde el inicio eran cifras estratosféricas al principio porque era poner la red, luego poner la red de fibra óptica, ha sido una inversión enorme hacer las torres, creo que traemos 25,000 torres, construir las torres y la red y miles de cosas. Eso ha sido una inversión muy grande. Ahorita que está más tranquilas las cosas, con todo eso tenemos que hacer inversiones para más torres, tener fibra óptica por todos lados, que no sé cuántos, no está aquí este Dani, pero no sé cuántos kilómetros de fibra óptica y hemos pasado del cobre, ahorita lo estamos recogiendo el cobre a la fibra óptica. Ya desaparece el cobre de que tanto costó toneladas y toneladas. Yo no sé cuántas toneladas puedan ser, pero no está de más 10,000 toneladas, muchas toneladas de cobre. Todavía ves cobre lo estamos recogiendo y recogiendo y recogiendo, pues estamos haciendo fibra, fibra óptica, fibra óptica. Entonces, eso es un trabajo individual, independientemente de cualquier otra cosa, es muy costoso y lleva muchos recursos. Luego es mucho el gasto también que se hace, la inversión que se hace en los nuevos clientes, en tener la fibra a la mano, porque pues tuvimos cobre. ¿Cuántas casas pasadas? Yo que tenemos como 15 o 20 millones con cobre que se han ido, se está quitando. Ahora nos queda de cobre como 600 o 700,000 casas, de las cuales hay como 90,000 en áreas rurales que esas pues no manejamos la fibra, pero está en ese cobre a muy bajo precio y con 15 megas. Aquí nos tocó vivir a finales del siglo XX los, ¿te acuerdas de cómo se llamaban las empresas que tenían lo del internet? America Online. American Online que tenía puro cobre de 56 KB. Sí, ahorita hablamos de 1,000 megas, 500 megas en lugar de 56 KB y llegó a valor 100,000 millones de dólares o por ahí. Compró Time Warner, ¿no te acuerdas? Y que lo compró con el dinero era papel, era el valor de las acciones. Dio acciones a cambio, pum, se volvió Time Warner y American Online. Total que ha sido mucha la inversión, pero es porque hay mucha sustitución. Va sustituyendo, sustituyendo, sustituyendo. Ahorita, ahorita el trabajo es meter cable y sacar cobre. Este año estamos pensando eliminar pues como 400,000 líneas de cobre o más, si es posible y para tener ya... yo creo que para el año que entra ya tenemos pura fibra de 4G a 5G. Bueno, y obviamente en las torres y en el trabajo que se ha hecho tenemos 5G desde hace muchos años que la anunciamos, no todo es 5G, pero ya tenemos muchas 5G en los 24 países, o sea, no solamente México. Los tenemos mucho, muchos 5G, pero hay países, muy curioso, Argentina era uno de ellos hace unos años, no sé si todavía, en la que la gente por razones económicas seguía con su 2G, porque el 2G los tenías que tener, cosa que hizo Telefónica en México, que yo creo que fue un error grande cuando ya no tenía, cuando tenía puro ya llegó a 3G mínimo en las redes, ustedes cortó a los de 2G. Nosotros creo que no hemos cortado a los de 2G. No sé si alguien, no le damos, dejamos que el que tenga un teléfono 2G siga con él usándolo. No le cortamos el 2G. Ahora, ¿qué tenemos de inversión? Pues tenemos mucha inversión en 5G. Tenemos como 26,000 torres, entonces le va poniendo 5G. Todavía hay lugares que no hay conexión en algún tramo, etcétera. Como el gobierno, el presidente López Obrador tenía interés por el estatismo. Entonces, por eso la línea aérea compró Mexicana de Aviación, el banco tal, el otra tal, el otro tal y en telecomunicaciones quebró la empresa Altan, que había echado a andar antes el gobierno de Peña, creo, o un poco atrás, que estaba quebrada, debe 30,000 millones de pesos, no sé cuánto deba, la compró el gobierno, es la que maneja, está manejando con principalmente tiene un solo cliente, pero pues está muy contento ahí con su solo cliente, pero es al que se supone que va a ser la red o va a ser el trabajo en las zonas marginales. No, como que lo tienen entre la Comisión Federal de Electricidad que tiene la parte de telecomunicaciones y Altan se llama, y Altan o Altan están buscando dar el servicio en las partes marginadas más que marginadas remotas o donde no hay redes, etcétera. Es la pregunta.

No, yo creo que lo de Telefónica ha sido muy triste porque era el líder en Iberoamérica y ya se fue de casi todos los países, nada más le queda Brasil, donde quiere quedarse en Brasil, pero ya vendió todas, menos una. Entonces, ha vendido todas. Ahora, en México desde hace mucho que como es muy cara la renta en México, desgraciadamente es muy cara la renta del espectro, etcétera, prefirió cancelar su espectro y se juntó con AT&T para hacerse MB, entonces ahí ya se ahorró lo del espectro y lo que está haciendo en México no es único. Lo ya vendió Argentina, vendió Perú, vendió Chile, vendió todo. Nada le falta, le falta Venezuela y ha sido líder en Brasil, ya nos estamos emparejando con ellos en Brasil. Decidió solamente también en España se ha bajado de tamaño, de dimensión, entonces está, según yo entiendo, en Inglaterra, Alemania, Brasil y España. Es la pregunta. Sí. Y lo del registro telefónico, se... Ah, bueno, lo del registro es algo muy complicado. Yo creo que primero está creciendo más fácil en el postpago, pero demasiado corto el tiempo, entonces está lento para todos. Nosotros creo que vamos más o menos rápido para hacer ese registro en el postpago porque ya con todos los nuevos y tal entra ese registro y el de prepago no sé bien cómo esté. Yo creo que deberían de darle una restudiadita ahí a ver qué es lo que hace que sea más eficaz para conveniencia del cliente y de la autoridad, pero está en proceso. Se están haciendo miles de registros, pues yo diría millones de registros, pero acuérdate que hay como ¿cuántos habrá? 140 millones o más de clientes.

Uno de que Moody's bajó la calificación y de la actualización del proyecto de petróleo de Lakach. ¿De quién? La Lakach que era el de gas. Eh, ¿por dónde empieza? Mira. Lo del gas de Lakach, lo vimos. Había la idea primero que entráramos cuatro, luego que entráramos nosotros. Entonces, lo estuvimos viendo, no se oye. Y resulta que es irracional, resulta que está creo que a 900 m, luego está como a 65 km de tierra. Entonces el manejo a 900 m tal y luego resulta que lo que hacen cuatro pozos, eso me dicen cuatro pozos, pero ponle tú que seis de Lakach es el mismo gas que sale de a 65 km a tanto tal. Ahí había hecho una inversión importante Pemex, pues se habla de más de 1,000 millones de dólares que tienen material para el lugar y eso, pero resulta irracional buscar gas a 65 km de tierra, que hay que transportarlo para allá, con una red de manejo del gas a 900 m, cuando el gas que sale del de Ixachi en tierra en cuatro pozos es el mismo gas que tienes ahí. Entonces es irracional ponerse a actuar y operar en un lugar cuando hay un lugar en tierra. Estamos hablando de que van 35 pozos. Están con una cantidad de gas en valor creo que saca tanto gas como el petróleo o más. Entonces, lo que hay que hacer es usar ese gas, no meterte a 65 km a meter inversiones billonarias, irracionales. Perdón, del proyecto, nos vamos a salir del proyecto. Ya estamos, ¿no? Pues nunca entramos o casi no entramos. Hicimos en los estudios y tal, ya lo tenía Pemex, ya lo había avanzado, tenía ya una inversión grande y tenía el material en buena parte.

Y sobre Moody's, la calificación crediticia. Ah, pues ¿qué te voy a decir? Creo que es Moody's y Standard & Poor's, ¿no? Hay muchos intelectuales que me vuelvo crítico. Mira, yo creo que uno de los errores que ha habido, les recomiendo leer el libro de Guillermo Tobar de Historia de México. Yo creo que ha habido mucho tecnócrata que trae 10 de calificación de las universidades de Estados Unidos y viene aquí a las áreas más importantes financieras. Entonces, pues eso por eso crecimos al 1.4% con esos excesos cuando por ejemplo había 466,000 millones de dólares de ingresos, ¿dónde están? ¿Qué hacían con ellos? Era una gran cantidad de dinero para invertir. Entonces, yo creo que la inversión se quedó muy corta y luego les gustaba hacer reformas fiscales, no hay que hacer una reforma fiscal. Hacían la reforma fiscal, subía la inflación, al subir la inflación subía la tasa de interés y se complicaba porque entonces se frenaba la inversión cuando tienes tasas de interés del 20%, del 15%, de no sé qué, pues se frena la inflación. Entonces, yo creo que ahorita están insistiendo mucho en que se va a ir a 60% la deuda del PIB, porque están pensando que este año no crezca el país, ponú que crezca 6 y que traiga un déficit fiscal de 4, pues ya se subió 4 puntos. ¿Sí me explico? Si en cambio crece al 1, pues entonces 3, pero si creciera el 3, pues va a ser si no va a haber déficit fiscal, ¿no sé si me explico? Entonces ya están vaticinando que va a ser 60% para fin de año, ya como algo religioso. Pero ese 60% tampoco es muy alto porque el de Estados Unidos se otraía, pero el de Brasil ¿cuánto es? Ahí tenemos varias cifras, ¿no? Andan al 80%. ¿Y por qué anda Brasil tan mal? Porque yo diría que exageradamente la tasa de interés en México es 6.5, en Brasil es 15. 15% es la tasa de interés. Entonces allá obviamente te jala más a invertir en tasa de interés, a invertir en hacer inversiones materiales, ¿no sé si me explico? Con 15% de interés, pues para qué quieres más, porque la inflación en Brasil está muy baja también. Entonces, trae una tasa real, es la tasa real más alta que hay ahorita, yo creo que en, no sé, en América Latina seguro, en lo demás, no sé. Entonces pues la verdad esos que decir que está muy endeudada y que entonces como está endeudada le baja el nivel y el grado. Pues ahí son dos o tres gentes las que deciden y lo que deberían de ver es en qué está invirtiendo. Pero si logramos empezar a invertir y a crecer como es de esperarse, pues es irracional esa calificación. Es mi opinión, o sea, no me preocupa a mí nada, aunque tiene efectos y entonces dicen que se frena la inversión y que ya no tiene acceso a financiamiento externo y barbaridad.

¿Quién? ¿Quién me ve? A ustedes me vean entusiasmado. Imagínate lo que pasó en el 82 y el 83 que nadie invertía.