I think you've got three very different personalities and stories associated with each company. And let me just say what I mean by that. Elon has the benefit of already knowing what this is like. And like him or not, like the way he runs his companies or not, he does a great job of the narrative of, yeah, yeah, yeah, this is what's going on right now, but let me tell you what's coming. I mean, look at Tesla. They can hit or miss delivery numbers and they can have 37, you know, 63 robo taxis on the road in Austin versus the year ago number of a million estimated a million. But the narrative is, yeah, but yeah, but this is where we're really going. And he's just out ahead of it with the public market and the retail investors and his fans and even the analysts and the sell-side analysts and the people who run hedge funds. So, I think with Elon, even though the initial valuation of SpaceX as a public company, if you mapped it to the amount of stuff they have to launch into space and make productive, it's going to be like, wait a minute, the math doesn't foot.
Forget Mars. They're going to have to get to Neptune to...
Yeah, and build it. He just does such an expert job of, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, but if you play this out 10 years, and I think he'll be actually fine even though there will be the people that are like, look, these numbers just don't make any sense compared to, you know, Starlink has to grow at this crazy amount over the next 10 years for this to make any sense.
Right. Okay, before we move to OpenAI. How much money in the market is there in this belief that Elon will figure it out? Because so you have Tesla, right? So you have Tesla and there's this belief that he'll figure out robotics.
And then you have SpaceX with this belief that, I don't know, he'll figure out space.
I think SpaceX, I am one of the people that believe SpaceX will buy Tesla.
Right. And so, Tesla's 1.29 trillion. It's a, I don't know, maybe I'm misreading the market, but I get like a trillion-dollar company on belief of Elon. But then if he buys Tesla, we're talking about a three-trillion-dollar company in the belief that Elon will figure it out. Is that possible?
I think based, so again, when SpaceX goes public, and I think it'll actually, it could end up being worth over $2 trillion on day one. Whether that's a fake price or not, and you know, 3 days later it's something else. People are going to, there's so little float. My understanding is there's so little float, and the float is, you know, how many shares are being issued, etc., as a percentage of the overall number of shares of SpaceX, that and there's going to be so much demand that the day one price is going to go to some insane number. So, and where it puts out, I don't think is, I don't know. I just think that his ability to frame a narrative on a small float, you know, he doesn't need, for example, a bunch of sovereigns to come in and put 400 billion each into the company. He just doesn't. So, he's been able to sustain that retail narrative with Tesla, and I think it'll continue for some time with SpaceX. We'll see how long that lasts, but I do think he'll be able to do it.
Okay. So, if Elon is somebody that can sell a vision, Sam Altman is not?
No, I don't think it's that he can sell the vision and Sam can't. I think it's that the narrative around OpenAI is already, Sam has gone out and written checks that Sarah Friar and team, not to put Sarah's the CFO, so it's not just her. Sam has gone out and written checks that the rest of the organization can't cash, if you will. The compute commitments, the public commentary about yes, we're going to spend this much on compute, but we're going to spend three times as much on training the models. And when you go, I mean there have been plenty of podcasts with OpenAI investors on all these topics, etc. But when you go and run on the numbers, it adds up to crazy over a trillion dollars worth of commitments that don't have the, you know, and you don't see the revenue model or growth yet to back it up. So he's kind of mortgaged a bunch of the company, if you will, that now Sarah and the rest of the executives have to go out there with an S1 behind them and answer questions. It's one thing for the CEO to be out there and again, Elon's got this history of I'm talking about things that are four or five years out. Sam has made monetary commitments, right? Here's how much so and so is going to put into the company. This is the deal for this particular data center. This is the deal for this kind of compute. Actual dollar figures attached to them and commitments. So Sarah and the team now have to go explain to the public markets and get out there during the roadshow and, hey, help me, I'm not getting how the bill adds up here, right? I'm not seeing how the dollar commits over here are mapping to revenue over here and when we're going to see profitability. I just think they're going to have a much, much tougher time. It will still do really, really well on day one because people are going to be like, it's the next, it's the next Sigma, it's the next Cerebrus. I can't, I haven't been able to buy secondary before. I wanted to be an investor. You have to own one of these things. But I think they'll be under a much bigger microscope quarter to quarter than Elon will. Is that fair? No. Is it probably what will happen? Yes.
So, when I spoke with Sam about this, his perspective was basically like it's tough for people to grasp exponentials. And we are in the middle of an exponential. So, you might see our revenue today, and you might see our planned expenditures. But what you don't fully grasp potentially is that we see it going that direction.
