Back
Naval Ravikant
Co-founder of AngelList, AngelList

Naval Ravikant and Brett Hall (ToKTeacher) on Clubhouse | Feb 2021 | Clubhouse Podcasts

🎥 Feb 16, 2021 📺 Clubhouse Podcasts ⏱ 60m 👁 7616 views
The latest recording of the clubhouse of Naval Ravikant & Brett Hall on 16 Feb 2021 Naval Ravikant is the sole owner of this video and content. We are re-sharing it here for a wider reach. Timestamps 0:00 - Intro 1:10 Naval calls “The Beginning of Infinity”(BOI) by physicist David Deutsch one of the best books he’s ever read 2:10 how Naval found Brett and his podcast 8:50 Naval explains the range of topics covered in BOI 12:30 Brett talks about mental models, misconceptions about how science is done, and how Nassim Taleb’s “black swan” example fits into the Popper-Deutsch worldview 16:30 Nav...
Watch on YouTube

About Naval Ravikant

In recent appearances, Naval Ravikant has argued that the global economy is entering a period of structural transition that will be economically and psychologically difficult for many people over the next five to ten years. He has described this as a gradual process driven by compounding forces including AI-driven compression of cognitive labor markets, persistent inflation, housing affordability stress, and the monetization of government debt. Ravikant stated that the combination of high prices and high interest rates has produced monthly mortgage payments "dramatically disconnected from incomes" in most major markets, and that AI is "commoditizing the specific form of cognitive labor" that has been the economic foundation of the professional middle class. He has characterized inflation as a mechanism that transfers real wealth from non-asset holders to asset holders, and from workers to capital owners. Ravikant has also discussed the implications of these trends for individual financial strategy, advocating for a deliberate transition from labor income to ownership income. He described the U.S. government's likely response to its debt burden as gradual monetary erosion rather than explicit default, stating that "the option to inflate is available." Following a trip to China, he said the experience changed his thinking about wealth, noting the scale of infrastructure investment, the cultural normalization of ambition, and the "patient long-term building of genuine productive capability" he observed there. He has also spoken about the psychological challenges of modern life, describing social media as "weaponized" and arguing that constant exposure to breaking news can be destructive to mental health.

Source: AI-verified profile updated from Naval Ravikant's recent appearances. Browse all interviews →

Transcript (66 segments)
✨ AI-enhanced transcript with speaker attribution
N
Naval Ravikant0:00
I've been making podcasts about the work of quantum physicist David Deutsch. He's the fellow we credit with the theory of quantum computation, and he's written a couple of books. One is called 'The Fabric of Reality' and the other is 'The Beginning of Infinity,' which provide an excellent worldview if you're interested in reason and trying to understand the world through a scientific lens.
So this is one of the great things about the internet. I read 'The Mind of God' by Paul Davies way back when, and then somehow from there I navigated to 'The Fabric of Reality' by David Deutsch. I did a really important job reading it a long time ago, but I barely comprehended any part of it and I certainly didn't finish it. And then I somehow stumbled across 'The Beginning of Infinity' probably when it was first released. It went straight on my bookshelf and never got read because I still hadn't gotten through 'The Fabric of Reality.'
And then finally a couple of years ago, maybe like a year and a half ago, I picked up 'The Beginning of Infinity' again. It looked intuitive, and I opened it and it was like a mind virus that just took over my brain. And I realized this is the best book that I read in 20 years. It may be the best book I've ever read, if you discount the spiritual philosophy stuff that I like. But within the genre of things that are directly useful, I think it's actually the most useful book I've ever read.
And that's a big point because I think this is one of the very few books that I felt made me a lot smarter. It gave me a foundation for evaluating what is true and what is not going forward, and it also shattered a lot of beliefs and myths that I had. I probably changed my mind more times from having read this book than having read any other. And so it's a very, very important book. It's very difficult to read.
And what it is, is David Deutsch, who is this brilliant physicist at Oxford University. Yes, at Oxford. I'm so bad at this. I'm bad at names and things of that nature because they don't really matter, right? It's the ideas that matter. Anyway, it's the work of David Deutsch, and he's actually taking Karl Popper's philosophy—Karl Popper being a philosopher of the theory of knowledge—but he's expanding upon it. And into it, he was mixing lots of physics and science. It was very interesting, but it's a very difficult read.
So then I went and actually tried to read the original Karl Popper, who I know, Brett, you believe is a clear writer, but I found him even more confusing and more obtuse. And so I was sort of lost, but I went through 'The Beginning of Infinity' multiple times, and each time I would learn a little bit more. And then finally I went online looking for people to explain this to me, because when you're dealing with difficult concepts, it's hard to do it on your own. You want to be challenged.
So I actually went to my smartest local friends and I started talking to them about this book. And that's when I realized two things: one is almost everybody who claims to read this book has never read this book, or they haven't read it properly, they don't understand it. Or secondly, they just have a fundamental worldview that's diametrically opposite to what the book says. They're incapable of absorbing the book; their identity and their preconceived notions get in the way. There's no one to discuss this book with.
So I went online and I found this podcast by this character, TOK Teacher. And I thought, oh, this is just someone who likes to talk a lot. But actually, no, TOK stands for Theory of Knowledge, and it was Brett Hall. And so for the last six months, the podcast that I have been most listening to is Brett's Theory of Knowledge podcast, and I've been going through it faithfully. And it's not easy either because he's covering very difficult material.
But basically, David Deutsch is not just translating Karl Popper but expanding upon him magnificently, but modestly. He does it so modestly that you wouldn't realize that a lot of it is David's original work. And then Brett is explaining and expanding upon it, but also modestly, giving so much credit to David that he needs nothing for himself. But I would say I'm honored to have Brett here because he's the person that I've learned the most from in the last year.
B
Brett Hall4:30
Well, that's nice. Yeah, so my story is very similar. I did begin with popular science by reading Paul Davies as well. And if anyone listening doesn't know who Paul Davies is and you want a good overview of the present state of scientific knowledge, you can't do much better than what Naval just said. Pick up 'The Mind of God' by Paul Davies. It's a standard introductory popular science book if you want to get into physics and you don't have much understanding of mathematics, chemistry, the foundations of biology, this kind of thing.
And I thought that this is what popular science books were like. And it wasn't until I was wandering through a book one day after I'd read everything that Paul Davies had written that I found a book by this fellow called David Deutsch. On the back, it was blurbed by Paul Davies, and Paul Davies said of David Deutsch that he hadn't been so inspired since he read 'Gödel, Escher, Bach.' And if you don't know what I'm talking about there, that's a book by Douglas Hofstadter that anyone who's interested in science tends to read because it's such an inspiring book.
So Davies was comparing Deutsch's work to that, and so that's pretty high praise. And once I picked it up, because I was studying quantum theory at the time—I was studying quantum physics at the University of New South Wales, I was in my second year of undergraduate—so I was really struggling. Not so much with the mathematics, not so much with doing the day-to-day lectures and tutorials, but trying to get a handle on what the heck the experiments were telling us about reality.
And the kind of explanations that you get from a typical professor of physics—things like Richard Feynman said. Richard Feynman said, many people can quote Richard Feynman, and he said words to the effect that if you think you understand quantum theory, you don't understand quantum theory. And this is the standard way, even today, that undergraduates and high school students who encounter physics are presented. That's the worldview they're presented with when it comes to quantum theory. And I didn't like that, and most students don't like that. You want to understand what's going on.
It wasn't until I picked up the work of David Deutsch that I was given a clear explanation. And the explanation, by the way—and this always astounds people and it often causes them to balk at the entire idea of quantum physics—but the explanation is that we really do occupy something called the multiverse. The multiverse is a much larger ensemble of universes, somewhat in parallel. I won't get into the weeds of exactly what the theory is, but the main takeaway here is that once you've read the book and once you've read the theory of the multiverse, quantum theory then makes sense.
And it also, despite the genius, the absolute genius of Feynman, it refutes what Feynman says about 'if you think you understand quantum theory, you don't,' because there are people who really do understand quantum theory. Now, why is it that every single physicist on the planet doesn't endorse the multiverse? Well, then we go into the sociology of quantum theory. And a physicist, because to actually say that you endorse the multiverse, you're sticking your neck out, you sound a little bit crazy. But in fact, any perspective that people take on quantum theory, of course, makes them sound a little bit crazy. It's just that the multiverse is the one that you are compelled by a literal reading of the equations of quantum theory to endorse.
And so that's what really attracted me initially to David Deutsch. But once you start reading more broadly about this worldview and about the proper way of understanding knowledge, then you really start to have this sense of vertigo. Everything begins to fall out from beneath your feet, and you become inspired about the way in which we can make progress in the world. And that is the part that it doesn't matter if you're a physicist or a scientist, an entrepreneur, a teacher, an artist. This idea that it doesn't matter what the area of life you're interested in, that progress can be made and problems can be overcome, and it's simply by using our capacity to explain the world that we can actually improve things inexorably.
N
Naval Ravikant8:36
Yeah, so I would say that the quantum theories, the multiverse, is fascinating. In fact, I am right now knee-deep with browser tabs open on everything from the photoelectric effect to the double-slit experiment to Zeno's paradox, and I'm kind of wading through that part of the book again. And it's fascinating, but I don't think that's as interesting to the average person. To the average person, what's fascinating is the philosophy. If you read the first three chapters of 'The Beginning of Infinity' and you really understand them, then for the first time in your life, you will have a very tight and precise definition of what science is.
You will understand how human knowledge advances. You will have a basis for separating falsehood from truth from unknowable. You will understand why it is rational to be optimistic as long as we have free speech and Enlightenment values. You will understand why we always are going to be able to create more resources and don't have to worry about the Malthusian trap. You'll probably revisit what you think about sustainability on this planet. You'll probably revisit what we think about humans as to how exceptional are we, how capable are we, are we sinners, are we creators, you know, what exactly are we.
You probably walk away with a different view of AGI, artificial general intelligence, and if it's possible or where it's going. If you make it to later chapters in the book, you may decide that beauty is actually an objective concept and not a subjective concept, or can be in certain cases. You may rethink political systems. You may rethink child raising. So there are lots and lots of examples where his theory applies.
And actually, as a side project, you know, Brett and I have sort of committed to try to figure out how to make some of these learnings more accessible to everybody else. But you know, people talk about mental models. I've always given that idea a short shift because I never thought that way. I never set out to read books to collect a bunch of mental models. That just seems too prescriptive, if you will, whereas in real life it's more complex. But I guess people like to distill things down into abstractions, as I do as well.
And you know, someone came up with—I think Charlie Munger and Peter Kaufman first did mental models in 'Poor Charlie's Almanac'—and so then it became a meme, and now there's like, you know, Twitter gurus making a living selling mental models, and that's fine. But most mental models are actually really hard to pick up. Like for example, there's the Nassim Taleb recently popularized the mental model of ergodicity. And if you—it takes a little while to understand it, but you know, the simplest way to look at ergodicity is that what's true for the group on average is not literally true for the individual averaged out over repeated iterations.
Classic example: Russian roulette. If six people play Russian roulette and if you live you get a billion dollars, then the expected value is—five of them, they'll get a billion dollars and one of them will get zero, and you know, it's probably worth playing Russian roulette if you want the money. However, if one individual has to play Russian roulette with the same gun six times and gets a billion dollars or gets that expected value if they're alive at the end, then it's a raw deal. So ergodicity is one of those interesting mental models, but you're not going to figure it out just by reading the definition. It'll just make your head spin. You have to work through it. You have to put in the time, you just put in the hours. It helps if you actually use it in your real-life context.
So that's how most mental models tend to work, and that you have to use them for them to actually become part of your repertoire. And I will say that 'The Beginning of Infinity' is the only book that I've encountered which has actually given me a whole bunch of new mental models to work with that I'm now struggling to incorporate into my everyday repertoire. So part of what I do is I try to explain them to people, and if I explain them to people, then I'll learn them in the process.
B
Brett Hall12:31
I was just going to say, yeah, one of the reasons that it does change what you're calling mental models, I think, is because people are educated in traditional ways of thinking. Traditional ways of thinking, which to a large extent make common sense or at least have permeated the culture to such an extent that you're not going to be challenged by them. A simple example is the way in which almost the majority of people who have ever taken a science class—anyone who's been to school—and the majority of scientists themselves think that science works. They think that it works by the accumulation of more and more evidence in order to show that some particular theory is closer to true or nearer to being true.
And this is false for a whole bunch of reasons. But if I could suggest one, and I think this is something you've mentioned, Taleb has also talked about this, and one of the reasons is because this is also—they converge, Deutsch and Taleb, they converge on Popper. And the idea is this: let's say you're a biologist and you're making observations of birds. And the classic example is, of course, if you're in Europe, what you're observing over and over again is white swans. And so each time you see a white swan, supposedly on this account, you become more confident in the truth of the theory that all swans are white.
Now, all it takes—we know—once you go to Australia, you go to Western Australia, you go to somewhere else, there happens to be black swans, and this refutes your theory. Which means that it can't be the case that repeatedly observing the same thing over and over again is what should make you more confident that your theory is actually true. And in fact, it's worse than that. Because that's not what science is. Science is not simply about observing the same thing over and over again and extrapolating something like 'all swans are white' or extrapolating 'the sun will rise tomorrow.' It's never about extrapolation. What it's about is explanation.
Scientists aren't about cataloguing things like the color of birds. They're about explaining what the features of a bird happen to be in terms of how they've evolved, what differentiates a bird from other kinds of vertebrate animals. This is what science is. This is what biology is. And this misconception that science is about the accumulation of evidence over time in order to allow us to make extrapolations leads to modern variants like Bayesianism. Maybe people have heard of Bayesianism. Bayesianism is a kind of mathematical means by which—I should say Bayesian epistemology is supposedly the mathematical means by which you can demonstrate using a number that you are 95% confident that your theory is true.
Now, of course, you could apply Bayesian-type reasoning to something like—let's take my favorite example, my go-to example is Newton's law of gravity. Now, prior to 1919, you know, for many centuries since Newton invented his theory of gravity, every experiment confirmed, on this account, confirmed that Newton's theory of gravity was true, was correct. But we know now, and we can do experiments to show, Newton's theory of gravity, technically speaking, it's false. It's ruled out. There's a better theory. That theory is called general relativity. That's the theory that Einstein came up with of space-time.
Now, does this mean that Einstein's theory is now true? Absolutely not. It means it's in the same position that Newton's theory was prior to Newton's theory being shown false by an experiment, by a number of experiments. What we say instead, what the correct way of understanding science is—and in fact, it doesn't only apply to science, it applies across all domains—is that we are searching for the best explanation. And that explanation represents reality in some way, but it's never the final truth. And that's a good thing. It's a great thing. It's an optimistic thing because it means we can go on forever making progress.
People who think that we can get there and actually have a final answer, they end up having a pessimistic worldview. They think we've already got all things neatly tied up into a neat little bundle, and therefore once we've got the final answer, we can be dogmatic and adhere to that one final answer, and everyone else will have to bow down to our authority.
N
Naval Ravikant16:46
Right. And so this ties into a topic that is very important today, which is freedom of speech. Because all truth-seeking systems work the same way. If you work through science, you make bold conjectures and they're subject to criticism by your peers and by experiment. In innovation, you do trials of trying out all kinds of different things, and then you have errors where nature gives you feedback—no, sorry, your airplane didn't fly, try again. In evolution, you have variation and mutation, and then you have natural selection. In free markets, you have people making bold bets, which are a form of conjecture, and the market gives them feedback. In democracies, you have people passing policies, and if those are bad policies, they get voted out of office.
And the important feature here is the error correction mechanism, the ability to say you were wrong and to peacefully transition that theory or that person or that institution out and swap it for another one. And that's why free speech is critical, because you are never permanently right. You're only provisionally right until proven otherwise. And it's the nature of power-seeking people and also just the nature of security-seeking people to sort of lock in and say, 'No, no, this one we got figured out. This is beyond debate.' But that's literally what separates a successful society from an unsuccessful one.
An unsuccessful society is one that says, 'We've got it figured out. You know, Confucius figured it out 2,000 years ago, or our scientists figured it out last year, and this cannot be challenged. This is done. We're done speaking of this, and let's move on to the next topic.' And we all know topics like this—there are topics, non-scientific topics certainly, which are closed to discussion, and there are now even scientific topics that are closed to discussion. And that is the hallmark of stasis and failure. So if we want to be successful in society, kind of all we need to do is just embrace error correction, constant feedback and error correction, which is important.
B
Brett Hall18:48
Yeah, and it's a wonderful parallel there that you've just mentioned between the scientific enterprise—this idea of coming up with a good idea, or our best idea at the time, and then being open to all other challenges. All comers are willing to put forward their best case. And then in science, we have this unique thing that we're able to do an experiment. And the purpose of the experiment is to rule out almost all other theories, ideally all other theories except for one that can't be ruled out by that experiment. Again, unable to be ruled out by an experiment does not mean that you're absolutely true, you're the final word. It just means it's the best idea we have for now.
And the parallel there with democratic systems shouldn't be overlooked. What's the point of a democracy? The point of a democracy is not to find the best ruler. It's not to find the person who is going to be installed as the president or the prime minister or the local member of the council for all time because they are the ideal leader in some sense. This is the mistake that Plato made. Plato thought that the whole idea of democracy was flawed because democracy is ruled by the mob. Okay, the largest number of people can get together and they can come up with laws, they can come up with ways that will overrule the minority. And so he thought, well, the only solution to that is you need to have philosopher kings, you need to have people who are powerful and wise at the same time, and they would be the ideal rulers.
Today we recognize—at least most of us recognize—that that kind of system has to be flawed in all sorts of ways. We don't want tyrannies. So instead we have this thing called democracy. But what is it that makes democracy wonderful? What is it that makes democracy so powerful? Now, it's not that we end up getting the best leaders. We've seen that in recent times, it's not worth electing the most ideal people. What democracy is, is a system for removing bad leaders when they arise. And this is why the great democratic systems have been working over the next few years. Many people would think that there's been terrible tragedies over the last few years about how democratic systems in the West have failed, but I would say that all the evidence is that we've been able to remove the people we want to remove. What the majority want to be removed can be removed.
This works for both the leaders themselves and for the policies. But if the policies aren't the ideal policies—and they never will be—they can quickly be overturned. The only alternative to this is to have a system where you install a particular leader or a particular policy which cannot be changed. All democratic systems need to be judged on the basis that they make it easy to remove the leader or to change the policy without violence.
N
Naval Ravikant21:29
So this is why I have an observation that the populist should always oppose whatever both parties agree upon. Because whatever both parties can agree upon is designed to perpetuate the two-party system. So for example, if there's gerrymandering, which makes it harder for them to turn over, and campaign finance reform, because they're all on the take—basically just hacking the system to leave themselves in power. And so whenever you see both parties agreeing on something, it usually has something more to do with power than it does to do with merit. You want that opposition. You want people to have clear-cut values with each other. You want to try out the different ideas, and then you want to hold out the ones that fail.
Turnover is good. It's just like if you're inventing something, if you're starting a company, or if you're even trying to get good at something, what matters is not the number of hours you put in, it's the number of iterations. So obviously in a political system, if you iterate too highly, it's destabilizing. But whatever time period the politicians tell you is needed, you got to cut that down, because their incentive is just to stay in power.
B
Brett Hall22:37
Yes, we don't have access to the final truth. We should mention as well, we don't have access to this pristine source of knowledge. Instead, all we have are conjectures. It sounds like a dirty word, but in truth, what that means is guesses. All we can do is guess. The more grand way of saying that is we have our own internal creative capacity to come up with a better idea. And that better idea can challenge whatever the status quo happens to be in terms of political parties, political ideologies, scientific theories, mathematical theorems—it doesn't matter what it is. The idea of creativity is the very thing which enables us to improve the world.
And that creativity, really, it's about explanations. It's explaining your own situation that you're in personally, and it's explaining things on a civilization level as well. But it's about ultimately explanations, and it's what Deutsch would say is a hard-to-vary explanation. It's not just a random explanation that anyone could have come up with that has fictional elements within it. It's an explanation that is hard to vary because when it encounters reality, when it's tested against reality, there'll be ways and means of objectively judging it against that objective reality.
And this is also how we do anything. If you look at children, how children learn is they're just constantly testing and trying new things, and they're just seeing what works. It's just constant iteration. If you have a toddler, one of the reasons why it's hard to deal with them is because they're testing the boundaries. They want to see what they can get away with, what are the maximum desires they can have fulfilled without any repercussions. And things that seem obvious to us as adults, like 'don't ask for that, don't do that,' toddlers want to test all that out. So as a parent, you're dealing with a little scientist who's always running experiments on you. It can be very painful experiments, but that's what they're doing.
And so humans are just naturally built to form theories about how the world works, explanations about how the world works. And we do it all the time. Everyone's a scientist. You're always doing it all day long. You're trying to figure out what is the explanation that links together a bunch of different facts.
N
Naval Ravikant24:34
In fact, one beautiful phrase that's used a lot in the book and in Brett's podcast is 'trying to explain the seen in terms of the unseen.' Right? That's what science is. An extreme example would be the Big Bang. Right? We see cosmic background radiation, we see distribution of hydrogen versus helium in the universe, we see a whole bunch of other things, and we say, okay, this can all be explained by the Big Bang. But nobody's ever seen the Big Bang, and nobody ever will. So obviously it's an explanation that requires the unseen behind it to work. But we think it's a pretty darn good explanation.
I mean, that's even true with the atomic theory of nature. Most of you never see an atom, and probably never will. And even if you do, through a scanning tunneling microscope or an electron microscope, then you have to have an explanation of the microscope itself and how it works. So we're constantly trying to stitch together the facts to try and explain things, and that's just what we do. And one of the things that this book does is it gets very rigorous about what a good explanation is and how you overturn explanations, how explanations work.
And as Brett said earlier, explanations aren't achieved through induction. It's not through basic reasoning. It's not from just seeing the evidence pile up and saying, 'Well, this has happened a thousand times, and so the first time it's gonna happen the same way.' And instead, let's get into a good explanation. Let's get into the tight definition. And maybe you can help correct me, because David doesn't write for the layman—I know he wants to, but he doesn't. So the way I piece it together, and so I could be off, is I came up with a couple of characteristics. A good explanation, first, is of course falsifiable. And I think most people stop there. Falsifiable means that there's some tests you can run to see if it's true or false. It's not just something that cannot be tested. Example: something that cannot be tested is simulation theory, right? There's kind of no test you can run to prove the simulation theory false. Or religion, right? 'God did it.' So it has to be falsifiable.
The second thing is it has to make narrow and risky predictions. So it has to say, 'Oh, this thing that you did not expect is probably true and is true,' and you have to go and test that. It has to be a pretty narrow, precise prediction. Obviously mathematical is the basis in science, but just in general, if you believe you have truth, then that should be able to tell you something that you don't know, or something somebody else can go and test. And the third piece is the explanation should be hard to vary. The explanation itself should be precise. You shouldn't be able to change after the fact, like, 'Oh, well, that thing goes off because of this or that.' Explanation can't be muddled with many other explanations. But this is a very fuzzy understanding. David didn't spell it out that specifically. I would love to hear your description of what a good explanation is.
B
Brett Hall27:29
Yeah, now that last point that you made there about hard to vary is the most important point. Now, if anyone listening knows anything at all about Karl Popper, typically what they know is that he was the guy who came up with falsification. People struggled for millennia, certainly for centuries before Karl Popper, in trying to figure out a way of delineating science, differentiating science from every other domain of inquiry. And so Popper's genius was to figure out that, well, what we're actually after in science is falsifiable theories.
Now, in fact, David Deutsch's great contribution is he took that a step further, because he recognized that in fact there's a whole bunch of falsifiable things that don't count as science. I'll give you two very simple examples. The crazy person standing on the street corner wearing a sandwich board saying 'the end is nigh, the world will end May 5th, 2021'—that's a falsifiable theory. They've got a strange claim, the world is going to come to an end on that particular day. Wonderful falsifiable theory. That's not science. Now, I'll get into why that's not science in just a moment, but I'll give you another theory. This is another example, and this is one of my more favorite ones from the book. It's the grass cure for the common cold.
Imagine someone comes to you, some naturopath person, and says, 'If you eat one kilogram of grass, that will cure your common cold.' You've got the sniffles, here's a kilogram of grass, eat the kilogram of grass. Now, that also is a testable theory, that's falsifiable. You could eat the one kilogram of grass, and of course you'll find that all you'll get is an upset stomach, you'll probably throw up, it's not going to cure your cold at all. Now, if you go back to the practitioner and say, 'Look, I tested this theory, I tried it out, it didn't work,' the person can turn around and say to you, 'Well, try 1.1 kilograms, or maybe try 0.9 kilograms.' What this means is that it's an easy-to-vary theory. They can ad hoc just change what they're suggesting the theory is.
But in fact, it's worse than that. They don't truly have a theory. It's not a theory in the scientific sense. A theory in the scientific sense is an explanation. It's an explanation of the sort, 'Well, in the grass there is this chemical, and the mechanism by which this chemical is able to attack the cold viruses is...' and so you would get a long chain of causation there. And this is the hard-to-vary aspect of what scientific explanations are all about. This is what Karl Popper didn't quite get. So a hard-to-vary explanation is one where all the components of the theory, all of them, have some causal purpose. So when we start talking about the reasons why, let's say for example you add acid to base and you get—what is it with acid and base?—I think you get salt and water. The reason why that happens, the explanation behind that, is to do with hydrogen ions and hydroxide ions, and every single one of these parts of the chemical explanation serve a particular purpose. Whereas in an explanation that is not...
Hard to vary. The different components can easily be swapped out for something else. Like I said with the grass theory, someone comes along and says that the grass is going to cure the common cold, they can quite easily change the quantity of grass, and that doesn't happen in actual science. Now does this tie in some way with Solomonoff induction? The trivial case of Solomonoff induction is Occam's razor, which is you don't want to multiply assumptions beyond what is necessary. So a tight theory should not multiply parts of it beyond what is necessary. Is that relevant or linked or am I just completely off-base?
N
Naval Ravikant31:12
Yes, I think so. There's all sorts of perverse ways in which people can use Solomonoff induction. They could use what's known as parsimony in science or Occam's razor in order to try and show aspects of science aren't really science. And I'll give you a trivial example. Of course, I endorse the multiverse interpretation of quantum theory. Now I would say, and David would say, and various other people who actually subscribe to this particular way of understanding quantum theory, but it's not an interpretation. Lots of other people have interpretations of quantum theory, but what we're saying we have is just a literal reading of the equations of quantum theory. We're just taking the formalism seriously.
B
Brett Hall31:50
Now what some people object, and in fact Paul Davies is one of the people who actually, I happened to have a conversation with Paul Davies one time, and he objected on the basis that the multiverse theory postulates an uncountably large number of universes in order to explain one universe. Now to many, many people this is a violation of Occam's razor.
N
Naval Ravikant32:19
Yeah, exactly right. And so that's why we're forced into endorsing things like the multiverse, because the number of assumptions you make is minimal. In fact, you need no additional assumptions on top of quantum theory. All you say is quantum theory literally describes reality, and what do you get out of that? You get a multiverse. So yes, it causes the number of multiverses to proliferate, but that doesn't matter for science. I mean, after all, we cannot see every single planet in the observable universe, but we know because of our scientific theories that as soon as we have this theory of how planets form around stars like the sun, and in fact we can see now exoplanets orbiting other stars, that theory stretches out from beyond where we are here on Earth to the rest of the universe. And so we know, even if we can't observe them, even with our most powerful telescopes, we cannot observe planets orbiting stars on the other side of the galaxy, let alone in other galaxies, we know they must be there. The planets proliferate because of the theory, but the assumption is very, very simple: this is how planetary formation works, therefore there must be planets orbiting stars in galaxies that we can't even see.
B
Brett Hall33:31
Yeah, I mean, if the number of entities mattered for Occam's razor, the atomic theory of nature would have had a hard time getting any.
N
Naval Ravikant33:37
Yes, there's a lot of atoms out there. Yeah, so anyway, I don't mean to recount the entire book in this one short conversation. It's a difficult set of topics, but actually maybe one other that we'll get to is, let's talk about one of my favorite things to pick on, which is the dark forest hypothesis. And let me explain this for people for a second. So there's a trilogy by, I believe, Liu Cixin, I'm going to say that name horribly, but very famous Chinese science fiction author. And it's a trilogy and it's a physics-based sci-fi thriller. And in the middle book, which is called The Dark Forest, there's sort of a stipulation, but if you want to read the book you should probably leave the podcast now or the Clubhouse. Spoilers: there's a theory that there's lots of alien races in the universe and it's not a multiverse construct, it's a universe and there's lots of aliens out there. And he tries to answer the Fermi paradox, which is if there's so many Kepler planets and so many habitable planets, where are all the aliens? The universe is so large, where is everybody? And the author's proposition, which is good for sci-fi but I think bad game theory, is that well, they're all hiding. And the reason they're hiding is because there's a finite amount of resources in the universe and every spacefaring civilization eventually, like bacteria, just breeds and breeds and breeds until they run out of resources. So they always want more and more resources. So the moment they see another civilization light up anywhere, any possible way, they immediately destroy it. They just send the equivalent of an interstellar nuclear missile and wipe out the other civilization from a long distance. And this is happening all the time because you want your civilization to take over the entire universe and use all of its finite resources. And so there's a zero-sum game, a struggle for finite resources going on. And so it's like a dark forest. You're walking around at night in a dark forest and you're trying not to step on a twig because a predator will kill you. And if you hear somebody else step on a twig, you immediately fire a shot in that direction hoping to kill whatever the heck that thing was before it kills you. And that's the dark forest that we live in. And a lot of people are enamored by this pessimistic science fiction. Pessimism remains in vogue and pessimism remains in vogue with smart people. And they fall into this trap. But I would posit that this is just the Thomas Malthus trap all over again, which is we have too few resources and we're all going to die and we're going to run out of them. When I read the book, I knew this was wrong and I knew it was wrong on multiple levels. And I can give you a couple of them, but David Deutsch kind of brilliantly dismantles this argument without even addressing it directly. He never brings it up, but in The Beginning of Infinity he lays the groundwork for why this has to be completely false. But you know, the way I thought about it is like, first of all, the universe is not short on resources. The universe is incredibly large. There are a lot of resources out there. In fact, what is short on is knowledge and cooperation. Any spacefaring civilization that can get off the planet, that can develop the technology to get off the planet, first of all has to learn how not to destroy each other. So they have to be cooperators by nature. They can't just be zero-sum game players. They have to build knowledge. And when you build knowledge, the scarcity is ideas. In fact, one of the brilliant things in the podcast, David defines wealth as a repertoire of physical transformations available to you. It's a brilliant definition. I encourage you to think about it, especially on a societal level: the repertoire of physical transformations that are available to you. So you obviously want to increase that repertoire of physical transformations. And to do that you need ideas. And for ideas and knowledge and scientific theories, you want trade. If you look at human history, yes, there was war, but as soon as people encountered each other there was also trade. And today we are much more of a trading society than a warring society. We are in far fewer wars than we are in trading partnerships. And in fact, if you encountered an alien civilization, the first thing you would want from them are ideas. The first thing they would want from you are ideas on how to make better use of the raw resources available in the universe. So I think that is the most powerful argument against the dark forest hypothesis. There are a bunch of others, by the way, which is that you start broadcasting radio waves as a civilization before you're even aware of how to get off the planet or that you can. And so the idea that you can somehow stay quiet and hide in this dark forest is nonsense because the first thing you do is you build a fire, so you're immediately noticed if anyone was going to notice you. So that's another problem. I think the key one is that the scarcity within a species, across the species, across the stars, everywhere, is going to be knowledge.
B
Brett Hall38:25
Yes. And this answer to the Fermi paradox, I mean, there are many ways in which we can have a reasonable scientific understanding of what the responses to the Fermi paradox might be. I won't get into my hobby horse. I think I did an hour just of me sort of freeforming on one of my podcasts recently about all the ways in which there could be good scientific reasons why there aren't in fact intelligent aliens out there. Someone has to be first, maybe we're it. But I spoke for an hour about that, I won't go into it now. But what you've said there is very important about, let's say there are intelligent aliens out there, let's say the universe is teeming with these civilizations. Well, we believe in objective progress. We believe there is a direction towards things getting better in the universe. Now, we can see this quite obviously with technology. You know, computers get better year after year, cars get better year after year, scientific understanding gets better year after year. It's not like we can hold morality in a stupefied state separate from our progress in mathematics, science, technology. If you're making progress in those other domains, you are going to be making moral progress as well. If we encounter aliens on the other side of the galaxy who can actually traverse the galaxy, you know, faster than the speed of light by some technological means that we don't know, their morality is also going to be streets ahead of ours. If we're concerned now about other species on the planet, they're going to be even more concerned about other species in the galaxy than what we are. They will regard us as being, you know, moral midgets. They will think that they have a lot to teach us in terms of science, but also in terms of morality. And they're not going to be genocidal and wanting to wipe us out and to take all their resources from us. But not only for those reasons, not only because morally they'll be superior to us, if they're superior to us in their scientific understanding, but also because, and this is a poorly understood point, that nothing is a resource absent the knowledge that enables us to use it as a resource. Let's take for example pitchblende. Pitchblende is this rock. It's in the Northern Territory of Australia. Prior to the understanding of nuclear physics, that rock was a useless rock. I mean, it was just sitting there in the ground, no one had any use for it whatsoever. Then someone figured out nuclear physics. Well, a bunch of scientists, of course, figured out nuclear physics. Then they figured out nuclear reactors. Then they realized they needed uranium in order to generate electricity and bombs and various other things that they might use radioactive materials for. And then pitchblende, the ore, became an actual resource because we had the knowledge of how to use it. But there's a funny anecdote that David talks about in The Fabric of Reality at some point about this element europium. You can look up europium on the periodic table. It's a very rare earth element. Anyway, if you think back to prior to flat screens, what we had were cathode ray tube color televisions. And we knew that in order to have a color television of the old style, you needed three different colored pixels, one of which, one of those colored pixels had to be a red pixel. Now, the only way, and the physics is unarguable, the only way to make red is to use this chemical called europium. It's just fortuitous that if you put an electric charge through gaseous europium in a pixel, it will glow red. And it happens to be the case that no other element on the periodic table does that. There is no other option. And the amount of europium that exists on the planet Earth is finite. And scientists at the time realized that, well, we're using up all the europium in order to make red pixels inside these cathode ray tubes. This means we will only have color television sets for so long, because once the europium runs out, we can't have red pixels, therefore we can't have colored television screens. But we all sitting here right now, we know that's absolutely ridiculous. Of course it is, because we're not using cathode ray tubes now. This is the message here. This should be clear for any resource that's finite. It's not like we're going to reach a point where if that resource runs out, there's going to be catastrophe, it's going to be the end of something or other. What do humans do? They use their creativity to understand that some other piece of hitherto useless piece of matter can be used as a resource to replace whatever the thing is that might be finite. For any given resource, it's finite, but...
N
Naval Ravikant42:57
This is the single most common way that people become public. They basically say we are running out of X. And sometimes it's oil, sometimes it's oxygen, sometimes it's europium, sometimes even Charlie Munger was saying we're going to run out of fertilizer because we don't have that nitrogen. You know, Malthusian, we're going to run out of all these different resources and we're all going to starve. Paul Ehrlich, population explosion. In fact, and even Mike Murray talks about running out of water in California. Right? And it even stretches further than that. We're going to run out of jobs. We're going to run out of money. We're going to run out of wealth. Right? These scarcity, these finite, these zero-sum sort of philosophies are incredibly common. They're actually the dominant paradigm in our society. And I think one of the things that you have to get over if you want to be successful as a human being is you have to get over this zero-sum mentality, to get over this finite resource mentality. We are not in a resource situation. The universe is a very large place. There is an infinite amount of raw material out there. The only thing that prevents us is using knowledge to progress, to convert those raw materials into whatever we want. And yes, some of it may seem incredibly fanciful, like how are we going to solve CO2? But we've always been able to invent technology. What we have to do is basically just push good ideas forward, not stamp ideas out, let people experiment. And you know, there's the knowledge. If you don't get there, in fact, I think Deutsch says it's like the only real sin is a lack of knowledge, right? Or it's like the closest thing to it, or is preventing error correction from letting us create the knowledge that we want. As long as we can find the... that was knowledge. Tough one. Most people don't want to swallow that line of argument. But if you get to his book and you read the Spaceship Earth part, you've all been brought up to believe that Earth is this rare, precious blue dot and you know, if we destroy Spaceship Earth, we're all going to die and it's terrible. And I was born to believe exactly the same thing. And Deutsch turned me around 180 degrees.
B
Brett Hall45:11
Yeah. And what you said there about really having this forward-thinking, optimistic view of reality, if you want to be successful, to understand that all we need, the real shortage in our world is a shortage of knowledge, a shortage of creativity. If you want to be successful, understand that. Understand that resources are always going to be there. You don't need to be a pessimist and think the world is coming to an end, because our knowledge will solve the problem. That's the lesson of history. However, there's one exception to that rule. If you want to be successful within the traditional academic university context, absolutely, you can do your PhD on resource X, Y, or Z, or some other pessimistic area, saying all the ways in which the world is about to come to an end, or all the ways in which industry is about to be depleted of a particular resource, and therefore the capitalist system needs to be overturned, and therefore we're all going to be poor soon, and therefore we need to hand over our rights and our money to the government. Well, then you can get a reasonably good position at a university, because that's precisely the kind of thing the traditional academics are paid to do. They're paid to identify the problems, which anyone can kind of do, but they're not really rewarded for coming up with the solutions. That's found outside of traditional academia. And so instead of having a problem-focused vision of the world, have a solution-focused vision of the world. And the subtle difference there is the solution focus does require you to have a good understanding of the problem. It doesn't mean that you dwell on the problem and then promote the problem and all the ways in which the problem, if we don't solve it, is going to cause the end of the world. And we can all think of problems right now that governments and scientists are very, very animated in telling us that are about to cause terrible destruction to the economy, to the environment, and various other things. But if they have a solution focus, then they could talk more often about the solutions that are there on offer, rather than all the ways in which, again, we have to hand over our money, we have to hand over our rights to the government who will look after us in some way.
N
Naval Ravikant47:16
Oh yeah, as an example, Moderna's vaccine for COVID-19 was ready to go on January 13th, which was about over a year ago, January 13th of last year. And so we didn't do human challenge trials because medical emphasis objected. And because all this is now being done in the public domain thanks to social media, so fear spreads more easily. It's hard to solve the so-called trolley problem. But if we had been like an older society and let people volunteer for challenge trials, where they basically get injected with the vaccine, spring young healthy people who are taking risks, but you know, it's their, they're sacrificing and maybe they're getting paid a lot, maybe they're getting fame out of it, for the rest of society, we could have had a vaccine six months sooner. And what would have been the cost of that? But it's a certain pessimism that seems to infect society that actually has actual huge repercussions like this. If you're too scared, you give up all your rights, you give up all your power, you slow down your innovation, you start believing in science as opposed to being critical about science and doubting everything and thinking it through for yourself. And in society, you get held back and there's a real repercussion to that.
B
Brett Hall48:29
Yeah. And so this is one area that you would certainly be far better across than what I am. But what I am aware of is that as soon as you begin to regulate any particular industry, that's when the progress slows down. Areas which are not regulated, for example, I know something about smartphones. Okay, smartphones tend not to be regulated. It's not like the government is in the business of generally producing smartphones, and for good reason, they're incompetent. But we turn over certain other areas of human knowledge creation to them and we allow the government arbiters to come in and to try and make regulations for our safety. And this is true of pharmaceuticals. Now, a lot of people might think, well, be true, we need to have government regulation of pharmaceuticals, otherwise won't those evil pharmaceutical companies start putting poisons out there? Well, no, of course, customers, it's a really bad business plan to poison your customers. That's a good way to ensure there's going to be no return customers.
N
Naval Ravikant49:29
Yeah. In fact, anyway, anyone can see the bungling of the FDA and the CDC trying to make their own test kits, banning private testing, you know, preventing in-home instant tests. Even to this day, I know people illegally buying in-home antigen tests because the FDA has not authorized using them outside of your doctor, when they're actually quite helpful and quite safe and reasonably accurate. People couldn't do mask manufacturing because it didn't meet the stringent FDA standards. Even now, I'm sure the vaccine rollout is partially delayed because we are treating every vaccine dose as if it has to be made perfectly, as if we're in peacetime, as opposed to being in an emergency wartime situation. So it's just the regulator's ability to say no crushes innovation. And we see this across the board. In crypto, for example, the internet is finally moving into its own native payments mechanism because first it had to figure out how to decentralize away from the prying of regulators. There are companies like Uber and Airbnb that had to fight local regulations every step of the way. But there they kind of did a divide and conquer. You know, your neighboring town can make Uber and Airbnb legal, and the next town doesn't. So you get this iteration, this error correction, the feedback loop, where the denizens of the town say, actually, I want Uber or I don't want Airbnb, so they get to see the experiment run in parallel next door. But if you go up against federal regulators, you're dead meat. You have no chance. You're immediately illegal everywhere. So we're just constrained in where we can do innovation based on how much regulation is present. That's not to say there should be no regulation whatsoever. Obviously, you don't want like everybody flying a drone past your house, and there's such a thing as the commons, there are externalities. But at the same time, the level of regulations that most societies set is too high. What you actually would love to have is real competitive experimentation. You'd love to have neighborhood societies, states, door by door, state by state, neighborhood by neighborhood, that make their own choices. It's not a coincidence that if you look back in human history, most eras of innovation are done by city-states. In the US, it was done by federalism, right? Like different states allowed different levels of competition. For example, one of the reasons why California has a lot of the tech industry, as opposed to Massachusetts, where arguably more tech industry is born, is because in Massachusetts non-competes are enforceable. So if you work for IBM or DEC, you know, Digital Equipment Corporation, you can't go work for a competitor or you get sued by your former employer. And so that just prevented smart people from going off to start companies. But fortunately, California didn't have that. Essentially, in California, what seemed like a bug to the employer was actually a feature that allowed for innovation.
B
Brett Hall52:18
Defending the market has certainly become, defending the free market I should say, has certainly become very unfashionable. I hear a lot of people, there are a lot of other podcasters that I would otherwise respect saying that, well, the free market can't solve problem X, and so therefore there's some inherent flaw with the free market. But I regard the free market as being something similar to science. Science doesn't have the solutions to all problems, quite right, it doesn't. That's the whole point of science. It's an engine for finding solutions. It's not an engine for producing the final solution. And in the same way, the free market is there in order to find solutions for the needs of people. It's not going to be perfect. If it was perfect, then we wouldn't need a free market. We would just instantiate those perfect things that we all know happen to work. But that's never going to be the case. It's been tried and it's failed before.
N
Naval Ravikant53:07
Yeah. People sometimes complain about how the markets, for example, look at the stock market, seems to get some things wrong. Well, it's volatile because it's absorbing all the information as it comes in. And that's actually, as markets become more efficient, they become more volatile, not less stable, because they're responding more and more quickly to more and more nuances and information happening in real time. So just because markets are incomprehensible to you doesn't mean they're not working. In fact, it's a clear sign that they're working, because if they were comprehensible to any single individual, we wouldn't need the market to give us the answer. And it's very important to distinguish between a mob of people demanding something versus a market demanding something. Just because they're a group doesn't mean they're the same thing. So the way I think about it is that a group of people who are hurting together, who are using social proof, who are doing something because other people in the group are doing it, that's a mob, and they're almost always wrong. Whereas a group of people who are acting independently, each making their own independent decision, and then you're collecting their independent decisions together to figure out the answers, that's a market. And that's what you get, for example, in voting or in the stock markets. Whereas a mob is what you get on Twitter. And this is where this idea really brings everything together. The idea that with knowledge creation, what we're about is error correction. So within science, what we're trying to do is to correct our errors in the theories that we have, the explanations we have. And each time we do correct errors, that enables us to make progress. And there's a perfect parallel there with the market. When the market apparently goes wrong, when there's a correction, it's called a correction for a very good reason, because there was something wrong there. The market is not a way of getting perfect economic progress every single day. What it's going to do is trial things out in the same way the scientist in the laboratory is going to conduct an experiment. They're going to try something out for the first time. It's going to fail. That's part of the process. So too, obviously, with innovation and entrepreneurship, you're going to try something and it's going to fail now and again. And that's just part of the process of making headway, making progress across any domain. As I like to say, the waste paper basket of the musical composer should be full. It's all the times they've tried and failed, but they're aiming for something objectively better than what went before. That's only by embracing the failure that you're able to enjoy the success when it comes. So I'm going to have to go to bed soon, but let me give kind of the grand unifying theory here of how this can improve your life, which is, and for those of you who are already aware of this, together, basically become an error-correcting machine in everything that you do. And always embrace error correction, especially when the feedback is from markets and from nature, because that's valid feedback from other people. But if it's from people making independent decisions, that's a market. If it's from nature, then that's invaluable, because that's nature, that's reality. And so error correcting in your politics means that you should always be looking to support, you know, turnover of incumbents, of voting the, you know, people out of office, changing your mind based on how well their policies have performed. Error correction in science is you should be looking for people who are open to conjecture and criticism. If they're not open to criticism, if they're saying 'believe in science', that's not science, that's religion, but using the name of science. And instead of using the realms of priests, they're using the white lab coats of a scientist, or so-called scientist. And in your own personal life, you should all, if you want to get good at something, you just iterate at it. You just try doing it as many different times as possible. But it's not the number of hours that you put in, it's the number of iterations. So always just change how you do it slightly. For example, if you're learning tennis and you're just brand new at it, just try all kinds of different things. Don't just do what your coach tells you to do. You know, one moment you're focusing on your swing, the next moment you're focusing on your footwork. Then once you've gone through that, you're basically maybe, you know, thinking hard about how the racket's going to make contact with the ball. And the next time, without thinking at all, try to go through as many different experiments as you can. And same way in your company, until you find product-market fit, you should be trying lots and lots of sharing new things, lots and lots of iterations until you find that product-market fit. Almost all of truth-seeking, without exception, is about fast iteration. And so you have to be very honest with yourself. You have to be honest with your team. You can't have too strong of an attachment to what happened in the past. You can't have an identity baked into it. You can't be afraid to look stupid. And one of the things that I always try and do is like, Brett is up here. Brett is way smarter than me at physics. Way, way, way smarter, orders of magnitude. I've already said things that I'm sure made him cringe and he's being kind, but I don't mind him contradicting me. I want to learn it. And the only way I'm going to learn it is by being a beginner and putting myself out there. And so I can't have this idea that, for example, that I'm good at physics, because there's always somebody like Brett out there. So you kind of have to go back to a beginner's mind. You have to start over. And you just have to be willing to be proven wrong. At the same time, you have to look at your authority figures and say they're wrong. Like Brett talked to Paul Davies. Davies is a god-like figure in physics. Davies gave him a bad explanation of why he thought multiverse theory was wrong. And Brett didn't say, 'Oh my god, Richard Feynman once said this, Karl Popper quotes this, so therefore I should believe that.' No, that's appeal to authority. That's a complete fallacy. It has to make sense to you. If it doesn't make sense to you because you don't understand it, then sure, make the effort to understand it. But if it doesn't make sense to you because it's possibly wrong, then who cares who said it? The more it matters who the speaker is, the less the content is relevant. Content on its own.
B
Brett Hall59:18
I think that's a lovely way to put a capstone on this conversation, is the Latin motto of the Royal Society here, and I know you like this one: Nullius in verba, which means, I go check my profile for it. And it works across every single domain. It's simply an admission that you can question authority. You may not always reject authority, but it's a good rule of thumb to apply in your own life, to apply when you're watching things in the media, when you're listening to a scientist. Just because the person is credentialed, just because the person has higher status than you in some way, or actually has some sort of state authority, some sort of badge, does not mean they know better. It doesn't mean you always have to get into a stand-up argument with that person at that point in time. There might be better times and places in which to walk away and calmly think about what the person has said. But simply having credentials doesn't make you right. And simply being a person who's straight out of high school who otherwise doesn't have a particularly extensive education behind them doesn't mean that you can't come up with a better idea than anyone else has actually thought of up until this point. But that being said, don't fool yourself. An opinion is not a good explanation. A good explanation is falsifiable, it's hard to vary, and makes risky predictions. That's it. With that, we're out of here. Thanks everybody, goodbye.