Naval Ravikant53:07
Yeah. People sometimes complain about how the markets, for example, look at the stock market, seems to get some things wrong. Well, it's volatile because it's absorbing all the information as it comes in. And that's actually, as markets become more efficient, they become more volatile, not less stable, because they're responding more and more quickly to more and more nuances and information happening in real time. So just because markets are incomprehensible to you doesn't mean they're not working. In fact, it's a clear sign that they're working, because if they were comprehensible to any single individual, we wouldn't need the market to give us the answer. And it's very important to distinguish between a mob of people demanding something versus a market demanding something. Just because they're a group doesn't mean they're the same thing. So the way I think about it is that a group of people who are hurting together, who are using social proof, who are doing something because other people in the group are doing it, that's a mob, and they're almost always wrong. Whereas a group of people who are acting independently, each making their own independent decision, and then you're collecting their independent decisions together to figure out the answers, that's a market. And that's what you get, for example, in voting or in the stock markets. Whereas a mob is what you get on Twitter. And this is where this idea really brings everything together. The idea that with knowledge creation, what we're about is error correction. So within science, what we're trying to do is to correct our errors in the theories that we have, the explanations we have. And each time we do correct errors, that enables us to make progress. And there's a perfect parallel there with the market. When the market apparently goes wrong, when there's a correction, it's called a correction for a very good reason, because there was something wrong there. The market is not a way of getting perfect economic progress every single day. What it's going to do is trial things out in the same way the scientist in the laboratory is going to conduct an experiment. They're going to try something out for the first time. It's going to fail. That's part of the process. So too, obviously, with innovation and entrepreneurship, you're going to try something and it's going to fail now and again. And that's just part of the process of making headway, making progress across any domain. As I like to say, the waste paper basket of the musical composer should be full. It's all the times they've tried and failed, but they're aiming for something objectively better than what went before. That's only by embracing the failure that you're able to enjoy the success when it comes. So I'm going to have to go to bed soon, but let me give kind of the grand unifying theory here of how this can improve your life, which is, and for those of you who are already aware of this, together, basically become an error-correcting machine in everything that you do. And always embrace error correction, especially when the feedback is from markets and from nature, because that's valid feedback from other people. But if it's from people making independent decisions, that's a market. If it's from nature, then that's invaluable, because that's nature, that's reality. And so error correcting in your politics means that you should always be looking to support, you know, turnover of incumbents, of voting the, you know, people out of office, changing your mind based on how well their policies have performed. Error correction in science is you should be looking for people who are open to conjecture and criticism. If they're not open to criticism, if they're saying 'believe in science', that's not science, that's religion, but using the name of science. And instead of using the realms of priests, they're using the white lab coats of a scientist, or so-called scientist. And in your own personal life, you should all, if you want to get good at something, you just iterate at it. You just try doing it as many different times as possible. But it's not the number of hours that you put in, it's the number of iterations. So always just change how you do it slightly. For example, if you're learning tennis and you're just brand new at it, just try all kinds of different things. Don't just do what your coach tells you to do. You know, one moment you're focusing on your swing, the next moment you're focusing on your footwork. Then once you've gone through that, you're basically maybe, you know, thinking hard about how the racket's going to make contact with the ball. And the next time, without thinking at all, try to go through as many different experiments as you can. And same way in your company, until you find product-market fit, you should be trying lots and lots of sharing new things, lots and lots of iterations until you find that product-market fit. Almost all of truth-seeking, without exception, is about fast iteration. And so you have to be very honest with yourself. You have to be honest with your team. You can't have too strong of an attachment to what happened in the past. You can't have an identity baked into it. You can't be afraid to look stupid. And one of the things that I always try and do is like, Brett is up here. Brett is way smarter than me at physics. Way, way, way smarter, orders of magnitude. I've already said things that I'm sure made him cringe and he's being kind, but I don't mind him contradicting me. I want to learn it. And the only way I'm going to learn it is by being a beginner and putting myself out there. And so I can't have this idea that, for example, that I'm good at physics, because there's always somebody like Brett out there. So you kind of have to go back to a beginner's mind. You have to start over. And you just have to be willing to be proven wrong. At the same time, you have to look at your authority figures and say they're wrong. Like Brett talked to Paul Davies. Davies is a god-like figure in physics. Davies gave him a bad explanation of why he thought multiverse theory was wrong. And Brett didn't say, 'Oh my god, Richard Feynman once said this, Karl Popper quotes this, so therefore I should believe that.' No, that's appeal to authority. That's a complete fallacy. It has to make sense to you. If it doesn't make sense to you because you don't understand it, then sure, make the effort to understand it. But if it doesn't make sense to you because it's possibly wrong, then who cares who said it? The more it matters who the speaker is, the less the content is relevant. Content on its own.