Naval Ravikant26:22
Yeah, so this is a very deep topic that's worth exploring for a moment, but it's probably the single biggest driver of economics in our society today. I'm going to mute you for a second if you don't mind, or I'm going to move you to the audience so we don't have feedback. Thank you. So yeah, so there's a very important thing going on today which is that most of wealth creation, most of earning, is becoming digital. If you look at the top companies in the stock market today, they're all tech companies. And if you look at the tech companies, almost all of them are selling purely digital products, with maybe the exception of Amazon, and even Amazon, a lot of their market cap and a lot of their market power comes from things like AWS and from controlling the user wallet, which are actually digital elements. So money is now being made by ideas and ideas have tremendous leverage. So the people who are creative and have good ideas and can implement and execute them online, they know how to sell them and market them and how to code them, just have absurd earning power compared to people still operating in the physical domain. So we're going through a transition that is just as big as a transition to literacy in society or the transition to numeracy, and probably even larger, where a small percentage of people who are intelligent and know how to project themselves to the internet can command large amounts of money and power and influence. And this is an example of it. There's one of me up here talking to a thousand of you. Am I smarter than the average person? Yeah, maybe by a little bit. Am I a hundred times smarter than the average person? I don't even know how to measure that, but the answer is no. Like my IQ is not like 100x. So there's something here going on where even small advantages in the digital domain give you all the leverage and the power. As an example, if I pick the right thing to work on as opposed to the wrong thing to work on, if I pick the right software to build or the right idea to put out there, then that's almost infinitely more valuable than the wrong idea. So you have to throw the idea of hard work out the window. It's right work that matters. It's truth-seeking that matters, tying into what James and I talk about a lot, which is like if you're finding the correct answer, the true answer, then you're just going to get paid a lot more. So now let's get back to the original questioner's question, Sergey's question, which is you have a small set of people out there who can do a lot. And let's take software engineers by name. Software engineers, a term gets thrown around, developer gets thrown around as a term, but it's as broad of a field as a painter. You know, there's a painter who'll come and paint your house and there's another painter who'll paint a Picasso. And which one's more valuable? Well, the Picasso painter is far, far, far more valuable in the right context. And so the same way when we say developer, there's a developer who'll come in and just write like basic code according to instructions of what you told that person. And there's another developer who's the Einstein of developers, who's like a John Carmack who built id Software and Doom and Quake and Oculus, or it's Notch who built Minecraft, or it's Guido van Rossum who wrote Python, or it's just one of these super, super developers, or Satoshi Nakamoto or Vitalik Buterin who created Bitcoin and Ethereum. So these people are incredibly more valuable and it's not even 10x engineers. And I know in our current equity-based society it's hard to talk about 10x engineers, but these people are 100x or a thousand x or 10,000x or a million x engineers where they can just create huge amounts of value. So the best people out there are actually extremely creative and extremely powerful and they have the ability to create things that are just hundreds of thousands of times or millions of times more valuable than the average person. And some of it is luck for sure, but a lot of it is just having honed their craft over a long period of time, being obsessive about what they do, and also being naturals at it. And so to recruit a person like this can have a huge non-linear effect on your business and it almost doesn't matter what your business is as long as it has a software component. So recruiting these people is not something about how much you pay them, although sure, okay, if you pay a little bit more you have a slightly higher chance, but it's really about getting them to partner with you in the first place. And so there's this old trope that goes around like, oh, I only want to hire people to work for me who are better than me. Well, if they're better than you, why would they work for you? Why don't they just work for themselves, especially in this digital domain where it's so easy to create and spread your ideas? And the answer that they did work for you is either because they're too young and they just need their seed corn, or they don't know any better, which would be weird, they're very intelligent in one domain but they're like completely stupid in another, or they're really down in their luck, which happens but it's rare. But more likely they'll partner with you, or maybe you should be one of them in the first place. You want to attract those kinds of people and be able to work with them. So partnership may be a better model. I mean, what you may need to do in this specific case is you may need to find a developer partner who is really good and maybe you split equity in the business with them and you start an enterprise together. And then that person, a single developer can change the course of a company if they create the right thing. So maybe that person will create the right thing, or at the very least they'll know how to recruit the right people. Now, in terms of recruiting the right people, you're gonna have to look for arbitrages. They might be really young, they might not speak English, they might be in parts of the world where, you know, it's hard for them to even get their hands on a computer let alone do amazing work and code. But finding these talented software developers is the number one problem for any company today. They will, I believe that there will always be a shortage of software developers. There's a lot of people who think that coding will be automated. These people have never written serious code. There is no automaton that will create the next Bitcoin. There's no automaton that will create the next Quake. There is no automaton that will create the next Minecraft. It just does not exist. Those are creative efforts. Creativity cannot be programmed. We do not know how to program creativity. So finding creative individuals who are highly leveraged, it's not just a problem, it is the problem for any major business because these people can build entire businesses. So it's sort of like someone saying, hey, I want to write a great novel, I have a great idea for a great novel, do you know anyone who could write it for me? Or you know, saying, hey, I want to launch a new company, you have a great idea for a new company, do you know anyone who wants to build that company for me? No, that's impossible. Your best chance is partnering with those people, or in a rare case you can arbitrage something and find them when they're very young or down in their luck. The other thing is you just hire 10 or 20 really young people, really smart people who can execute on code and ideas, and you just see which one overperforms and you see which one is super creative. And maybe like, you know, nine out of ten are sort of just plotting along and doing their basic work and one out of the ten turns out to be brilliant and that's the person you reward big time. Because when you figure it out, it's not a long period of time until they figure it out. When they figure out, they're going to leave and they can start their own company or create their own effort. So you need to reward them in some very meaningful way, probably by making them a partner in the business before they leave. So this is the challenge. I don't have a simple solution for you, but you've identified the right challenge because if you can crack that challenge and with your own little hack in your own little part of the world, then you can do great things.
All right, let's see who's coming up next.