Naval Ravikant38:55
Yeah, I mean, this is going to, I don't mean to drop into like one percent privilege, but I think most people are working too hard. I think most people are just basically spinning wheels and spending a lot of time in make-work. And the older you get, the better you get at just declining work that you know is useless. Like, I have this theory that 99% of work that you do is useless. You still have to do it because it's iterating your way to the 1% that is useful. But in an ideal world, if you're omniscient, you would just cut to the 1%. So for example, 99% of people that you went on dates with, you didn't end up marrying, so that wasn't the final answer. 99% of stuff you learned in school, you've forgotten, you weren't really curious about, it doesn't apply to your life anymore. 99% of the presentations you did at work, the spreadsheets, the code that you wrote, got thrown away, didn't account for the returns. Now, of course, you had to do that to build up the expertise for the 1% that worked, or perhaps it was trial and error, you should do it to find the 1% that worked. But as you get older, you just get better at figuring out, well, actually, instead of taking a hundred shots on goal to get the one that works, I'm actually going to narrow it down so I take 10 or 20 or 30. And a lot of judgment is just knowing not what to do in the first place. The ability to say no and be correct that that was a no is a superpower. You want to be able to filter out things very efficiently, and that just comes to experience. But if you're becoming more and more experienced and you aren't filtering projects, and firing customers, and not pursuing certain marketing strategies, and declining working with certain kinds of people, and even turning away the money when it doesn't make sense, if you're not doing that, then you're not going to scale properly. So I do think that a lot of people just end up spending a lot of time in busy work and make work. We're also in this odd society where we think that, well, every degree takes four years, isn't that a coincidence? Whether you're becoming an expert in art history or architecture or computer science or physics, it takes exactly four years. What a heck of a coincidence. Every job takes eight hours a day, five days a week, whether you're coding up the next cryptocurrency or whether you're marketing something or whether you're HR or whether you're a receptionist, it takes the same amount of hours. What a coincidence. Obviously, I'm being facetious, obviously that's not correct. So we have these one-size-fits-all rules that don't make any sense. And yet we look around and some of the most successful people in the world, Warren Buffett, you know, that guy makes like one decision a year that matters. He spends a lot of time reading books, a lot of time playing bridge, and he's one of the richest men in the world. So it's not really about hard work. Elon Musk is working around the clock, but he's also partying hard. He's dating, he's tweeting, he's running multiple companies, he's driving cars, he's moving around, he's engaging in politics, he's getting sued by the SEC. Busy guy. Where does he find the time for all this? The guy at the corner convenience store is working 80 hours a week. I don't see him being any more successful than Elon Musk, or even close to that. So clearly, hard work, although it's important, it's an element, it's one leg of the stool, it's probably not the most important one. And you can definitely make trade-offs as you get older and wiser about working less hard but working more smart. It's very, very true. And especially in the age of leverage that we live in, judgment just gets magnified. One little decision magnified a thousand times, hundred thousand times, million times. That's why you see such outsized fortunes. One person decides to code up a FaceMash at Harvard and they become Facebook. The other one decides to code up something that you've never heard of because it was close but not quite. It just hit number 100 in the app store for a week and then it was gone. So it's not really about hard work, it's about judgment. So hard work is important to the extent that it builds up judgment, but eventually when you have the judgment, you should be saying no all the time.