Mike Novogratz Reveals Bitcoin's MASSIVE Rally Coming

I have been saying here in my office, great markets, great bubbles end with something symbolic. You got to keep dancing when the music's playing and be very quick to get out. Like, you know, if you want to short things now, you don't short them, you actually buy puts.

Oil will get to the back end, oil will get to the 60s.

Okay, so I mean that gives our friend Kevin Warsh some amplitude, right? Right to cut rates, right?

Happens, Europe's only raising 25, Warsh is starting to change his tune, and by the end of the year he's cutting rates, right? Not just fighting off people who want to hike. And so that could be the last juice that this market needs to have it rip your face off.

I have been saying here in my office, great markets, great bubbles end with something symbolic. The Nasdaq bubble ended with the merger of AOL and Time Warner. The '97 Asia miracle ended with the Hong Kong handover and all those fireworks. What could be symbolic is the IPO of SpaceX or the three of them together. It's 4 trillion of market cap. It'll be 125 billion of new money needed to fund those IPOs or more, 150 billion. That's just a huge amount of supply coming on the market. And so if we look back and SpaceX was the high, it won't surprise anybody with hindsight, right? That's how markets end. Something symbolic. And it's a pretty symbolic largest IPO of all time. And it's not just largest, it's the guy who's a trillionaire who's seeing into the stars and saying I'm going to do data centers in the stars, we're going to Mars, we're going to have colonies on the moon. Like we really are going into the future in Elon's story. And that's what inspires investors and at one point everyone's in and there's no one else to buy. And so that's how the market very well could end. And I have been positioning, you know, you got to keep dancing when the music's playing and be very quick to get out. Like, you know, if you want to short things now, you don't short them, you actually buy puts. Like when I think about how you should approach a market that you think might be in a bubble. The number one trader of the freaking planet right now is King Leopold. You know, he was a young guy that left Anthropic and started a hedge fund and he has been hot as a pistol. And he publishes, you know, every quarter what he's long, short, and just recently he's spent a fortune on puts. I think he has got like four or five billion dollars of notional puts. That's what you're supposed to do. Not sell and get short a market that could rip your face off. But if you want to play for the reversal, if you think the SpaceX thing is the end, buy a bunch of puts and buy them out long enough that you've got some staying power in them. It's expensive, but it's a lot less expensive than selling Nvidia at 5 trillion and watching it go to 10 trillion. Couldn't Nvidia go to 10 trillion? Of course it could. That's what bubbles do. They get expensive.

You know, this is what we always say in our world, the market climbs a wall of worry. We're worried about these different things. But you know, the bull case is you get a deal or oil goes back down into the 80s. I mean it was trading in the high 50s, mid 60s, but oil will go down to the 80s. Oil will get to the back end. Oil will get to the 60s.

Okay, so I mean that gives our friend Kevin Warsh some amplitude, right? Right to cut rates, right?

Happens, Europe's only raising 25. Warsh is starting to change his tune and by the end of the year he's cutting rates, right? Not just fighting off people who want to hike. And so that could be the last juice that this market needs to have it rip your face off. You know, it's again, I wish I had a better crystal ball. I try to create ballets like potential stories and then see how the details fill in the what's of those stories. And the key is at this stage of a market you've got to be able to act quickly. And you want to have some protection, you know, some insurance. And that insurance is not going to bail you out, but it's going to give you courage when it starts working to say, 'Hey, that thesis is happening. The world might have changed. Therefore, let me actually let go of the stuff that I've been holding on so desperately to.' Cuz the way you get rich is to ride trends. And it's really hard to ride trends. We used to call it the pain of the gain. You have to handcuff yourself to the chair so you don't sell the thing that's going up every day.

There is going to be a revolution of sort, right? You don't know how it's going to show up, but pitchforks are at the voting booth or you know, can get people get ahead of with tax. The problem we have with our tax code is Jeff is right, right? 3% of the taxes come from that bottom 50%, and so it would be nice to give her that extra money. He also said, 'Hey, changing my tax rate won't do much.' If you look at the actual tax rates people play, not just income tax, but throw in payroll tax and social security tax, and we don't really have a progressive tax structure. We used to, right? The middle class pays as much if not more tax than the wealthy class because of the way income is calculated, right? Capital gains versus income. And so we really do need tax reform. And Bezos is smart cuz he's saying, 'Hey, I see the pitchforks coming and therefore let me give some ideas that will help.' And that idea would help and I give him credit for saying that, but it's going to have to go a lot deeper than that to make the tax code be perceived to be fair and to actually be fair. Why should capital gains be so much of a lower tax rate than income? What we're saying is the guy who's just investing his money in sharing, that's worth more than the guy is toiling in the factory or toiling at the investment bank. You know, Trump, I don't know if he meant to be smart, but he was smart in some ways. If you'd just been honest about what tariffs were, you say, 'Hey, we're going to institute tariffs, which are really a consumption tax.' And consumption taxes are regressive by definition, but they're taxes that people don't feel is a tax on them, right? It's just a tax on the system. That was raising so much revenue because it was a tax on everything imported. Right? We import a lot of stuff in America.

Well, listen, it was an international VAT is what it really was, right? I mean, if you buying something overseas, you got hit with it. So, even if you were in the black market economy, avoiding income taxes, you got hit with this consumption tax.

So, what we're going to have to do as a government, I keep thinking about this. If it's going to be the energy tax or you've got to have taxes that collect enough revenue to actually have our place function and not just keep having the debt grow asymptotically. That in some ways are hidden. That some ways don't feel like it's a direct assault on the wealthy or on the aspirational wealthy, right? I mean, most Americans, that's famous adage about most Americans look up the hill and saying, 'I want a house on the hill one day.' Not, 'Let's go burn the house down.'

Right, exactly.

And so, but it's challenging because there have been so many loopholes and so many ways that have benefited the top end of society that our actual tax rates are not near. You have people bitching all the time, 'I'm moving out of New York.' When you look at people's average tax rates, and I can show mine on the freaking TV, they're actually not nearly as high as the W-2 earner who makes a lot of money. And that's just because of capital gains and dividends and...

You, but I think I just like the fact that we're now speaking about it more openly and hopefully we'll come up with some constructive solutions.

That would be wildly bullish.

Oh, I see.

Yes, okay.

I think that's right around where clarity should be decided. I think I would, if you move that to the middle of July, I'd be bullish.

I think bullish, the timeline is probably going to be a lot further than people expect.

Yeah, I'll bullish it. Right now Anthropic looks to be the winner, maybe the greatest monopoly in history if they actually keep it, okay? Whoever gets this next leg up and gets to recursive. The question is, is that going to be a monopoly or will everyone else do it, too? I haven't figured that out yet. So, let's say the Anthropic guys are the first to get to recursive AI. Does that just mean, you know, you broke the 4-minute mile and I broke the 4-minute mile? And so...

Unfortunately, we will have one. Will the US, let's rephrase the question. Will the US use taxpayer dollars to buy Bitcoin? I think the answer is categorically no. Okay.

Will they find a way to do something symbolically? Yeah, 50/50.

But then if, do you sell gold to buy Bitcoin, which would be legal? I don't see that happening yet.