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Stephen Schwarzman
Chairman, Chief Executive Officer & Co-Founder, Blackstone Inc

Economy's slow a bit, but not a recession: Blackstone CEO

🎥 Jan 23, 2019 📺 Fox Business ⏱ 5m 👁 818 views
Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman on the outlook for the economy, the mounting popularity of socialism and the potential impact of the increasing use of artificial intelligence.
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About Stephen Schwarzman

Stephen Schwarzman, chairman and CEO of Blackstone, reported record financial results for 2025, including distributable earnings of $1.75 per share in the fourth quarter, a 20% increase in full-year distributable earnings to $5.7 billion, and assets under management reaching a record of nearly $1.2 trillion. On the company’s earnings calls, he described the current environment as one of “uncertainty around tariffs” that has “dramatically impacted investor sentiment,” while emphasizing that Blackstone’s model is “very well designed for periods of stress” due to its “virtually no net debt” and $177 billion in dry powder. He stated that “commercial real estate values bottomed in December 2023” and are “approaching a steeper point in that recovery curve,” with transaction activity increasing 25% year-over-year in U.S. logistics. Schwarzman highlighted several strategic initiatives, including a partnership with Wellington and Vanguard to “collaborate on integrated public private investment solutions,” and efforts to open the defined contribution retirement market to alternatives following a U.S. administration executive order. He noted that Blackstone raised $62 billion in inflows in the first quarter of 2025, the highest in three years, and emphasized the firm’s focus on “AI revolution,” “infrastructure,” and “life sciences.” On private credit, he argued that defaults in the sector have resulted from “bank-led and bank syndicated credits, not private credit,” and that the traditional private credit model involves “direct orig

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Transcript (11 segments)
✨ AI-enhanced transcript with speaker attribution
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Maria0:00
It has some flows in United States, but at the end of the day, a company like ours that drives responsible growth, that delivers for our teammates, delivers for our shareholders, and delivers for the communities, we'll be fine. That hump passes through the economy, then you'll get a slowing, and that's what that's going to look like. But more fundamentally, I think we're talking about the political social polarity, the wealth gap, and the like. So I think that the wealth gap and the opportunity gap is the biggest issue of our time. That was Bank of America CEO Brian Monahan and Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio talking about the economy, as well as Dalio mentioning that 70% marginal tax being proposed by Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Joining me right now to talk about all of the above is the Blackstone Group chairman and CEO Stephen Schwarzman. Stephen, it's great to see you.
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Stephen Schwarzman0:51
Great to see you, Maria. Thank you so much for being here.
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Maria0:53
So I saw your comments yesterday that you don't know where this whole idea of a recession came from.
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Stephen Schwarzman0:58
Well, I found it a little odd given that we have a large number of companies, over 100, with 600,000 employees, and what we're seeing is the economy slow a bit. Remember, it was at 4.2% growth, which is almost unheard of for a country our size in the second quarter, and then the third quarter we were at 3.5%. So it's going down. For next year, this year 2019, somewhere into the mid twos, you know maybe it'll be 2.5, 2.6, 2.7, I don't know. But that's not a recession. And we've sort of confirmed to the best of our ability that that's what our CEOs are looking at. Part of the reason I think the markets moved so adversely is that profits will probably only be up in the 5, 6, 7 area, right, all the way down from 25% last year. So that sort of shocked the markets, and it results in an adjustment of PE ratio. If the E is going to be a bunch lower but still growing, this isn't going backwards, it's growing but slower, then the P has got to come down, and that's how you get declining markets.
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Maria2:21
Steve, what about the political environment? I mean, I'm wondering what you think of these new ideas and this new focus by younger generations of socialism. I mean, you've got Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez coming out talking about a 70% tax rate, which of course would be double where we are right now in terms of the highest earners. We know that the highest earners already pay 80% of the tax. But what is your reaction to some of this new focus that we're seeing from the Democrats on socialism?
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Stephen Schwarzman2:50
Well, I think we need to go back and look over time at socialism and see what the outcomes have been for those kinds of economies. And for the most part, I think that has not worked out well. And as you go further out towards communism, as you move further left, that's resulted in failing almost everywhere economically. And so it seems to me that the balance of evidence says that would not be a wise thing.
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Maria3:29
I mean, you've given so much money away, and I made the point yesterday that when you have millionaires and billionaires having to give 70% of their income away, you have to question whether or not you're going to see the kind of philanthropy that we've seen in the world.
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Stephen Schwarzman3:43
Well, philanthropy aside, you know, if just in theory, if you move tax rates high enough, then you basically discourage people coming to the country who are entrepreneurs and other types of things. But it's a broader question than that. Socialism is a system that for the most part just simply hasn't worked.
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Maria4:10
Steve, let me ask you about your investment recently in MIT and what you're doing in terms of AI. You see AI as a real game changer, and you've tried to empower MIT to continue development. Tell us what you've done.
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Stephen Schwarzman4:24
Well, AI is going to really make a huge impact on the world. It's a bit like the printing press being invented or the internet being invented. And it will have overlays as well with additional technologies that'll make it even more powerful. And what's going to happen is there are going to be issues of jobs, because it'll create a lot of new jobs and it'll also obsolete jobs. And you know, there's some statistics that say that 40% of a workforce over time could be affected directly or indirectly by artificial intelligence and its applications. And so it's important also that some of the other technologies like quantum computing, which is super fast, unimaginably fast computing, that countries who obtain these technologies will be in a vastly advantageous position, which the US has a very strong position in, but so do some other countries. And so one of the reasons that I was interested in making a very large donation to MIT was to help stimulate investment in this area, strengthen MIT, and ultimately get the US government involved in a much more profound way.
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Maria5:51
Steve, great to have you on the program. Thanks for doing that. Steve Schwarzman is the chairman and CEO of the Blackstone Group.