Michael Saylor39:21
I think there's some catalysts that are impediments that will become accelerators. First of all, regulatory clarity. If you're seeing support, let's start with the most basic issue: is Bitcoin an asset or a currency? The word cryptocurrency is a very politically charged word because if Bitcoin was a currency, it's an opposition to the US dollar. If it's an asset, it's an opposition to gold. So just resolving the fact it's a digital asset, not a digital currency. Most public speakers, how many well-regarded investors have made negative comments about Bitcoin over the past 12 months because they're mistaken? They mistakenly think it's a currency and they think they're sticking up for the dollar. Many say, 'I prefer the dollar.' So if you understand it's a digital asset, a scarce store of value, a speculative digital asset, that's how politically correct people would refer to it. Anybody else would say it's just a digital asset or a store of value asset. The first impediment is just understanding that and educating the market as a digital asset. I think the second impediment is getting over the issue of whether it's a threat to the powers that be, will it be banned? So first, what is it? It's an asset. Second, will it be banned? No, we're not gonna ban cryptocurrency. We're not gonna ban Bitcoin. It's gonna be around. So those two check boxes are huge. I think the third check box is, can I actually buy it via my existing bank? Every publicly traded company has been doing business with probably the same bank for 30 years, Pomp. Some have been doing business with the same bank for 50 years, some for 100 years. To have adopted a new banking relationship is not a one-and-a-decade thing. Public companies don't change in a decade. So if I could buy this directly through Bank of America or JPMorgan or Citigroup, I think that makes a big difference. If I have to go to an institutional-grade Bitcoin exchange, that's a one-year exercise in due diligence. There's two issues. One is, before you give a billion dollars to a counterparty, you have to inspect their accountants, their legal teams, their licensing, their executive team. Would you give a billion dollars to a private company that's new? That's a huge hurdle. And the second is they're not FDIC insured. The imprimatur of being backed by the US government means that in a liquidity crisis, the Federal Reserve gives you $10 billion or $100 billion. How much money did you need? That's what the big licensed banks have. The last holdout that wasn't doing that was Goldman Sachs, and in the great financial crisis they broke down and they became a bank. It matters. So if you want to move huge sums of capital, at the point that some of the major banks handle the asset, that makes a big difference because it checks a lot of boxes, and people are pretty conservative about that. I think the next hurdle is accounting. Explain the accounting problem, because I don't think a lot of people understand how big of a problem this is. It's a source of massive inertia because every publicly traded company is running on GAAP accounting. We're publishing our GAAP balance sheet and our P&L every quarter. Investors are reading the P&L. The whole point of GAAP accounting is, in theory, I ought to be able at a glance in 30 seconds look at your balance sheet and know how much capital you have, and in 15 seconds look at your P&L and know whether or not the business is well run. When the GAAP accounting aligns with the underlying business, you can do that. But when it gets out of alignment, you have to adjust it with pro forma accounting, non-GAAP accounting, or adjusted accounting. When you get to adjusted accounting, it goes from being a 30-second inspection to a 30-minute thing. And you know how difficult it is to communicate a 30-minute concept to the world. Very challenging. So the issue right now, and the issue when we got into Bitcoin, is no publicly traded company held any material Bitcoin. So the accounting treatment was probably appropriately conservative. The most conservative accounting treatment you could imagine is indefinite intangible. What indefinite intangible accounting means is you buy something, you test it against the market continually, you take the lowest bid, and you mark the value of the asset down to the lowest bid at any point in the history of your ownership. And you treat that not as an investment, but you treat that as a loss in the core business, the operating business. So if you have a business that makes $100 million a year and it's run perfectly with a perfect pegged 20% operating margin, if you buy Bitcoin and Bitcoin trades down for one hour and trades back up again, you might have a $100 million operating loss. And then you would be showing the business made no money this year on a GAAP basis. So now you're an outside investor and you're saying, what happened to the software business? It looks like the operation got wrecked. If I made a million decisions poorly, I probably couldn't go from $100 million in cash flow to zero. Or if I did, it'd be challenging. But on a Saturday night, someone could flash crash something and you would have a $100 million loss showing on the operating statement. So indefinite intangible means you take the volatility as an operating loss on your P&L. And you take the theoretical worst case. The theoretical worst case would be I buy Bitcoin and I wait for the lowest price ever and I sell it all. You take the theoretical worst case and you represent that as the status. So when you print your quarterly results, you print your annual results.
You want a simple example. You buy a billion of bitcoin, it trades down to 500 million, then it increases to a billion, then increases by a factor of 10 to 10 billion. If that's the fact pattern, when you close your books under indefinite intangible, your books say you have 500 million dollars of assets, and it says that you lost 500 million dollars in the operating business, and the money's gone. That's what GAAP accounting says. In actuality, you might have a statement that says you have 10 billion dollars of assets, and it looks to the casual observer like you generated a 9 billion dollar investment gain. So how do you fix it? Pro forma adjusted accounting, you have to create a schedule, a reconciliation. But now what have you done? First of all, you've made the investor's job 100 times harder. Investors have to read all the pro formas, think about it, figure it out, then they've got to reverse it out and figure out what really happened in the rest of the business. And then they've got to figure out what your balance sheet really looks like. And the second problem you have is your statements become non-comparable over time. For example, I can't look at my balance sheet on a GAAP basis today versus a year ago. Bitcoin could go up by a factor of 100, the balance sheet doesn't change. So when you're comparing quarter versus quarter, there's no information there because you're suppressing it. And then if two companies have bitcoin, one company has 100,000 coin and one company has 10,000 coin, and bitcoin goes up by a factor of 10, neither company shows an investment gain, neither company shows a balance sheet adjustment. So how do you compare one company to the other company if you're trying to make a rational investment decision? Things become non-comparable across securities and they become non-comparable across time. And you're invited as an investor to create your own set of pro-forma systems to compare yourself, which is 1000 times harder. So that's an impediment for a public company or for a company that relies upon GAAP accounting. But here's what's really an impediment. Why can MicroStrategy do it? Well, because we rotated our shareholder base to be long bitcoin, and because fortunately enough, we were able to build a substantial bitcoin position. So now if you know that MicroStrategy has 114,000 bitcoin, all you have to know about MicroStrategy is take 114,000 and multiply by the price and you know that we've got that much. But let's say that you were Google, or Apple, or Facebook, or Amazon. You've got all these other businesses, and now you're trying to decompose the businesses. If they buy a big bitcoin position, then what looks like a pristine P&L, everybody debates whether Apple's gross margin is going to be 38 or 38.5 percent this quarter, and that's a big deal. People take victory laps on getting within one percent of the gross margin. Well, your gross margins would totally get blown out of the water from the volatility, the accounting volatility of the bitcoin.