Gary Gensler, former Chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission, says SpaceX’s blockbuster IPO is part of a new era of mega-IPOs, raising questions about valuation, governance and what future AI debuts could look like. He also warns AI models could create a financial stability event and discusses the regulatory fight over prediction markets. He speaks with host Kailey Leinz.
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What Gary Gensler said
Written from the verified transcript and checked against it. Every figure links to the moment it was said.
Gary Gensler, former SEC chair, discussed SpaceX's debut and mega IPO risks. He noted NASDAQ changed rules so index providers can count SpaceX shares once about 33% of stock is unlocked, possibly by July 2026, faster than the traditional 180-day lockup. He highlighted SpaceX's valuation at about 120 times revenues with no profit, and that its launch and Starlink businesses generated only about $16 billion in revenue over the last 12 months. He said Grok is not among the leading three AI models, which he listed as Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic. Gensler flagged governance shifts, including moving incorporation to Texas and requiring shareholder arbitration. On prediction markets, he said he filed an amicus brief in the Sixth Circuit arguing sports bets are not swaps and the CFTC is not the regulator, and predicted the Supreme Court will decide. He warned of a future financial stability event driven by AI reliance and ransomware threats.
Key takeaways
SpaceX shares could enter the NASDAQ 100 as soon as July 2026 once about 33% of stock is unlocked, faster than the traditional 180-day lockup.
SpaceX trades at about 120 times revenues with no profit; its launch and Starlink businesses had only about $16 billion in revenue over the last 12 months.
Gensler filed an amicus brief in the Sixth Circuit arguing sports bets are not swaps and the CFTC is not the federal regulator for prediction markets.
Gensler predicts a financial stability event will occur, possibly from banks and trading shops relying on the same AI model that goes offline.
SpaceX governance shifted: incorporation moved to Texas and shareholders must use arbitration instead of suing the company.
Numbers and commitments
Figure
What it refers to
Type
At
33%
Portion of SpaceX stock that unlocks to trigger index inclusion
1:42... so many ways, do you see this as being unique to SpaceX and an Elon Musk-led company and changes being made with that in mind, or is this really setting new precedent and this is the way we're going to see these things work going forward?
4:41I know the CFTC is looking into this, but do you think people should be concerned that the US capital markets, which are renowned for their transparency, that perhaps some people are getting an edge that others don't have?
6:11Do you believe that ultimately prediction markets should be overseen by federal regulators versus the states?
7:11... power some of these artificial intelligence models have in the cyber space specifically, how concerned are you that the things that are supporting our capitalism and financial markets actually could create great financial stability risk?
And joining me now for more on this here in our Washington DC studio is Gary Gensler, the former chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Mr. Chairman, welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio.
It's good to see you. It strikes me that we did see SpaceX debut today after Senator Elizabeth Warren wrote to the SEC and requested a delay over concern about the valuation, concern about how this could impact retirement accounts. If you were still helming the SEC, would you have shared those concerns? Would you have let this go forward?
Other people are in that job right now, but some of the concerns that I think she also wrote another letter to the index providers and Roma was just speaking about that. One of the things is that NASDAQ made an accommodation. They changed their rules, and for your listeners this is important because it's when do the index companies purchase these securities. What's interesting is at SpaceX, they have an arrangement where a lot of their insiders and venture capital firms aren't going to have the traditional lock up for 180 days. It will be a faster phasing of this. In fact, what will be interesting under the NASDAQ rules, once about a third of the stock, 33%, is no longer locked up, which could happen as quickly as July of this year, then they count all of it in the index. So all of a sudden pop into the NASDAQ 100.
So let me ask you this. As you speak to the unique nature of this in so many ways, do you see this as being unique to SpaceX and an Elon Musk-led company and changes being made with that in mind, or is this really setting new precedent and this is the way we're going to see these things work going forward?
Well, we're in this little era of mega IPOs, and we don't know what will happen with Anthropic and OpenAI. We just have this Google offering of $85 billion. That's a sign of this enormous interest in artificial intelligence and in this case in space. I do think there's a shift that's gone on here in this particular offering. I mean, the valuations, Kaylee, with the 19% pop today, are about 120 times revenues, not earnings. There's no profit here. And two of the businesses are pretty understood. Their space launch business and their Starlink, which is called connectivity. Those two businesses combined only had about $16 billion in revenues in the last 12 months. Their artificial intelligence business, Grok, is not currently thought of as one of the leading three. That's Google, OpenAI, Anthropic, and don't count the Chinese models out. So you know, where does that play out over the next 2 to 5 years, and are these valuations taking some of those risks into account?
Well, and I also wonder how much of the valuation is valuing the man at the top. Elon Musk, he's going to have 85% of the voting share here. There are major governance questions that were raised as this company went public. How great of a concern is that to you?
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Gensler, G. (2026, June 12). Former SEC Chair Gary Gensler Talks SpaceX & Mega IPO Risks | Bloomberg Talks [Interview transcript]. Bloomberg Podcasts. CEOInterviews.AI. https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/979833/
MLA
Gary Gensler. "Former SEC Chair Gary Gensler Talks SpaceX & Mega IPO Risks | Bloomberg Talks." Bloomberg Podcasts, 12 Jun. 2026. Transcript, CEOInterviews.AI, https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/979833/.
BibTeX
@misc{gensler2026_979833,
author = {Gary Gensler},
title = {Former SEC Chair Gary Gensler Talks SpaceX \& Mega IPO Risks | Bloomberg Talks},
howpublished = {Interview transcript, Bloomberg Podcasts. CEOInterviews.AI},
year = {2026},
month = {jun},
url = {https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/979833/},
note = {Speaker-attributed transcript with timestamps}
}
