Balaji Srinivasan0:05
All right, so I've got a little bit of a double header talk today. I'm going to talk about this concept. I just put out this book called The Network State, from new currencies and new companies to maybe new countries. And then the second part is: is Urbit part of this exit? Okay, so the first part is... is this clicker working? So, there's a full book, it's up at the networkstate.com. You can read it. You can just read the first sentence for the ad, you can read the first image, etc. Ada optimized. And I'm updating it constantly, and it'll be a big V2 hopefully next year with lots of new stuff. So I'm going to give the talk version, that's the book version. Okay, so first part is going to be about starting new countries, to show that it's possible, preferable, and profitable. And then the question on the second part is: is Urbit part of this exit? So let's start with the first. Okay, it's possible, preferable, and profitable. Possible is the big one, right? You know, we've started new companies like Google from a dorm room, from a garage rather. We start new communities like Facebook from a dorm room. We start new currencies like Bitcoin from a white paper. But is that it? Is that where the internet stops? We just stop there? We just flatline out? It's just new coins for all the world can see, as I can see. Or do we get something more? And I think we can actually potentially start new countries. And how would you actually do that? And so this is the concept in really one visual. This is what I call a network state. Okay, and it is a social network that crowdfunds territory. Okay, and that actually has a census, a real-time census at the top, that bar across the top, that shows its population, income, and real estate footprint. And it basically eventually achieves the scale to be comparable to a legacy nation state. We might call a fiat state. This is a crypto state, a crypto country, and those are fiat countries. And this builds out around the world. Here's how it actually can happen. I've given an example of it being 1,729,314, so 1729 and Pi. Okay, it's at a million person scale. But how did you actually get there from one person? So you start with somebody, for example in Japan maybe it's Satoshi, and they start building and they build it to 10 people, and 100 something people, and a thousand something people, 10,000, 100,000, a million. And each step there, the annual income and real estate footprint increases by roughly another 10x. And this is a true community. It's not like Facebook or Twitter where there's many different communities on Twitter. It's just a bunch of... it's like Fight Club, right? You just go there to fight every day. It's like a combination of Liberia and a library. But with something like this, it's a true community, a true social network where the people actually want to live with each other, which is a very high bar for what a social network is. You can call it a digital community, you could call it something which is more powerful. And as you can see, the buildings on the left-hand side get more and more sophisticated, because if you've got a thousand people, you can crowdfund a thousand person building. That kind of collective action we just haven't done frequently on the internet, but there's nothing preventing it in terms of laws of physics. Okay, so this is the concept in just a visual of how one would build up a network state. Every single piece of this is available today. We have social networks, we have crowdfunding, we have cryptocurrencies, we have remote work, we have dashboards, whatever, mobile phones to show the dashboard, all that type of stuff, right? Okay, so it's not like... I'm a big fan of space, you don't need to build rockets, you don't need to build seasteads. This is a way of building a digital country, as sympathetic as I am to space travel and sea setting and other things, right? Okay, to just put some more meat on the bones, to make this more plausible: most countries are actually small countries. If you go to the UN, more than half of the UN is less than 10 million people. There's 38 countries that are less than a million. And while not shown on the graph, there's 12 countries that are less than 100,000 people. We've built social networks that are far bigger than that. Even if most people live in big countries, most countries are actually small countries. And UN membership has actually grown over time. Most people don't think this is their mental model. They think countries have been flat for a long time, but as the British Empire broke up, the French Empire, all kinds of countries got independence. And most recently, the Soviet Empire broke up in 1991. So as empires decay, you get new countries. Okay, now the thing about this is, of course, this has been roughly flat for the last 30 years. There's been South Sudan and East Timor, but for the most part, new countries are not thought of as something that are cropping up on a daily basis. But then again, new currencies weren't either. New currencies kind of look like this, and then suddenly they took a dogleg up. At least you'd add Bitcoin and Ethereum to that class, but all the other coins that are perhaps above the market cap of an existing fiat currency, there's at least two, there's probably dozens if you have that threshold, right? So if the number of new fiat currencies has grown over time, maybe the number of new cryptocurrencies have grown over time, perhaps the number of crypto countries could as well. And the key concept here is: cryptocurrency is already ranked with fiat currency. So this is a funny site called fiatmarketcap.com. It's like CoinMarketCap, and it's comparing to fiat currencies. And you see Bitcoin is right there, just a few days ago between the Turkish lira and the Chilean peso. And at various other times it's been higher up, like at the peak I think it broke the top ten. Okay, and the thing about this is: cryptocurrency, this pure cloud phenomenon, is ranking with the land phenomenon, right? The new thing is starting to rank with the old thing. And so by analogy to that, here is the table of all the UN recognized countries in the world, okay, and their populations, just from Wikipedia. And exactly by analogy, here is a network state somewhere in between Latvia and Bahrain, with 1,729,314 people. Okay, and then on the right hand side you can see the change in that right hand column, you see it's like 15% population growth, because network states will want to rank on these dashboards. They'll actually want to have a pronatal policy. This is actually the way I think to get Type A personalities, tech people, etc. You can grow by immigration, you can also grow by reproduction, right? The new way and the old way. And so this is something where skilled immigration plus pronatal policy, your network state would rank on that leaderboard. Okay, and it's the opposite of the Singapore style IQ shredder. This is the opposite of that. So as much as I like Singapore, this actually solves several different problems at the same time. And the census that I talked about, the 1,729,314 people, that's how that pops in over here. And you just start every day you're showing your rank there relative to the fiat countries in the moment. The moment that you have a crypto country that is bigger than Kiribati with like 100,000 people, you're ranking. That's a huge, huge moment, okay. You could also put cities there as well. You could have a 10,000 person city, a small city, and you start ranking. So you extend this from just UN countries to other things, you start figuring out the scale of your thing. Okay, all right. Now, sufficient traction actually means diplomatic recognition. This is the other piece here to establish plausibility. GoDaddy has done a deal with the .tv domain. Nevada's done a deal with Tesla for the Gigafactory. El Salvador is using Bitcoin. So we can see sovereign cities like Miami, sovereign states like Nevada, sovereign countries like El Salvador and Tuvalu doing deals with companies and currencies. Okay, and so the question is: can a network state that is comparable to a company like Tesla, or a currency like Bitcoin, or a company like GoDaddy, can that similarly achieve some sort of win-win deal with a legacy state? I think it can. Okay, the land is already negotiating with the cloud. Okay, so that's the possible part, right? Now let's talk about preferable. I probably don't need to convince you too much of this, but there's basically both a push and a pull. Outside of the US, the energy scarcity and other things are leading to riots in many countries. That's Sri Lanka, that's Venezuela, that's Panama, okay, at the top. So there's these failed states and powerless people now have an alternative to failed states. Conversely, at the bottom, since expanding out of Africa, we've gone to... we've got the Statue of Liberty, we've landed on the moon. There's also the pioneering aspect, that's a pull, right? Are we just stuck in the states that we already have? Is a 200-something year old code base the best we can do? If we think we can land on Mars and even end death, can we not start new states? I think we can. Okay, so ambitious people now have an alternative in these frontier societies. So it's both a push and a pull, very similar to crypto itself, where it's for both those people who are powerless and for the power user. Okay, it's both at the same time. Finally, starting new countries is profitable, right? It's perhaps an obvious point, but just to give a comp. Okay, this is just stretching the point a little bit, but the ARPU of nation states, social networks, and network states. So social networks across the bottom, that's the number of people, and then on the y-axis is ARPU. And so the traditional ARPU is like annual revenue per user. And for a social network, it comes from ads. For a country, for a nation state, it would come from taxes. And so you can see that things like Facebook and LinkedIn and whatnot are pretty large in scale, but their monetization per user is only about $50 something. Conversely, there's many small countries like Israel, Estonia, etc. They're small in the number of people, but their monetization per person in terms of tax is actually quite high. Then in the upper right corner is both scale and the number of people, and that's the US and China. That's why they're the two big superpowers, right? So network states would kind of occupy this little bit over here, where you have relatively smaller scale but much higher affinity per person. And this is where the internet is going. In the 90s, it was eyeballs, people just looking loosely at websites. By the 2000s, we had DAUs, daily active users, you're logging in every day. Okay, by the 2010s, we have the concept of the crypto holder. You're not just logging in every day, you're holding a significant percentage of your net worth in this cloud currency. And by the 2020s, what comes after the digital currency in my view is the digital passport. You actually think of yourselves primarily as a netizen of this cloud country. And that's the next step. So from eyeballs to DAUs to holders to netizens of network states. And so this shows that it's profitable. And now economics, I think of as a tool, not the master per se, but this shows economic feasibility, not simply technological and political feasibility. You can make money doing this, and therefore we can align capital behind it. So I talked about this more at the networkstate.com. You can go and read that, or browse it, skim it, whatever. Give me feedback, and we'll make revisions for V2. Okay, so that's the first part of the double header. Okay, part two is: is Urbit part of this exit? Okay, can it be useful? So Justin Murphy, you might be here today. He tweets at me at times and trolls the internet, fine. So on August 8th, Justin predicted the first network state to have a GDP greater than one trillion will be built on Urbit. Okay, now the thing is, as other folks, perhaps somebody in this audience has observed, biology exists in superposition of first investor in Urbit and cognitive black hole. Okay, so why have I not talked that much about Urbit as the possible exit? So the reason is because Urbit is very unusual for something started 10 plus years ago. It is not a failure. Fail fast, CNN+ took our lessons of tech to heart. Okay, they fail fast. Okay, Bitcoin has just dramatically succeeded and was started roughly the same timeframe. Urbit is definitely not a failure, and it keeps improving every year, with this conference perhaps being a breakout moment. But it's not yet an obvious success. And why is that? And what are the limitations there? This is the kind of stuff that I poke Galen and Josh about, and so on. And let me poke all of you, okay. So basically, accessing the Urbit arena is a bit like taking the Chinese imperial exams. Okay, you learn many new words, it filters out many people: Arvo, Ames, Behn, Clay, Dill, Iergal, Iris, etc., etc. Okay, and the thing about this is there's a lot of good to this, because if you go from the hub and spoke model of the cloud to the Urbit vision of self-hosted ships securely and personally computing each other, it seems very compatible at first. Wouldn't it exceed? You have the sovereign individuals with their sovereign computers that group into sovereign collectives. Ta-da, seems like it should all work, right? But the issue is that the Web 2 and Web 3 alternatives to Urbit are more polished in most areas. Okay, Urbit wants to actually be a cathedral. It's a bit bizarre, but it's currently a bit of a bizarre cathedral, okay, or a bicycle MVP. And let me explain what I mean by that, right? So let's talk about the Web 2, Web 3, and Urbit alternatives in various areas. Okay, so namespace: for Web 2, it's URL; for Web 3, it's something like ENS; for Urbit, it's Azimuth. Like Dalvin, Robsten, you know, kind of stuff, right? As you guys know. Okay, language: obviously there's many languages for Web 2, just give an example is Python or Solidity. Okay, Hoon is fairly obscure. File store: AWS or IPFS. Clay, you've got a global path, you can address any object. Really cool thing about this global immutable namespace, this revision control namespace. The app store: you have the Apple App Store, you have web browsers, main things you could put there. For Web 3, kind of CoinMarketCap, where it's got a kind of a list of everything that's over there. You've got the urbit.org ecosystem. Okay, for tutorials, we've got all the O'Reilly books, zillions of programming books. For Web 3, we do have Mastering Bitcoin, Mastering Ethereum. That was actually a very important moment for crypto, was Andreas's book. We're going to need a Mastering Urbit if somebody here wants to step up and do that. I think that's an important moment for the ecosystem, where there's not a single word that is not explained in terms of something else. Like ideally, in my view, it should be like Google established a brand name, and then it was Google Maps, and it was Google Images, and Google this and Google that, right? You knew Google was search, and then there's these things. So rather than Arvo, it should be like Urbit OS. Rather than Hoon, it should be like Urbit language, or whatever, right? Everything should be kind of branded in this legible way. And if you want, you can preserve the old nickname in parentheses after that. Okay, but this way you only need to learn one word, and then you just make the surface area more understandable, minimum necessary overhead for people grasping it, right? Compiler: again, there's an infinite number of compilers, interpreters set on Web 2. Web 3, the canonical arguably is the EVM, even new chains or whatever, you see VM. Urbit has Nock. Okay, interop: lots of APIs in Web 2. And Web 3, there's atomic swaps, Chainlink, lots of interchange stuff being worked on. Urbit has Jets and HTTP in a sense. Jets for the C interface, HTTP for the web. Monetization: Web 2, again, SaaS is not the only thing, it's resilience of things here, but Web 3 coins. Urbit currently is ships, but you could imagine projects that issue tokens or stock or whatever, and build SaaS. And actually was not just pure ship-based monetization, or not just improving the namespace, but also had something that was specific to them. The blog: Web 2, again, there's tons of stuff, there's Substack. Web 3, Mirror. Urbit is Urbit Notes. The community: we've got Twitter, we've got Crypto Twitter, we've got the Urbit groups. And the killer app: again, there's an infinite number on Web 2, I could just go and list them. For Web 3, I think there's quite a few. Bitcoin: digital gold and DeFi are very large. And the big question is: what is that killer app for Urbit? Okay, so the thing is that when you look at this, Urbit wants to be this full stack thing, it wants to be this cathedral. But any individual road there is somewhat less polished than either the Web 2 or Web 3 alternatives. You have ENS alone is a giant project, they're just focusing on namespace. And so the alternative to Urbit is you take a bunch of things that are billion dollar market cap things and then you system integrate them, versus using Urbit which is living in this Galapagos Islands kind of thing. Okay, so just to understand from a developer who's outside the community, that's how they would think, right? So how do you fix that? Can you fix that? Okay, so one way of thinking about it is: this is a good post. When I talk about one of the individual elements of systems, someone will tell me another company is already building that, and they're usually right. What sets Urbit apart is we're building all these elements that want to work together seamlessly. That last bit is the key bit. It's not yet there, and in fact it's really, really, really hard to get there if you're doing something that is everything, because it's hard to polish the surface of the Earth. Okay, for it's another planet, you're like you can't buff Mars. Okay, so you need to actually find some piece that you actually get to being better than the Web 2 or Web 3 alternative that pulls people in. And so what is that? So I've thought about this a lot actually, and I actually do have an answer, which is that the killer app of Urbit is actually not related to its technology directly. Just as that Chinese imperial exam, the thing about it wasn't so much that you need to know about the past dynasties and what have you to become a Chinese bureaucrat, it is that that selected for those people who are competent enough to be Chinese bureaucrats. Okay, and so in the same way that the imperial exam filtered down a community, the Urbit exam has filtered and built all of you guys. Okay, Urbit's killer app is actually its community, not its technology per se yet. That bizarre test pulled all of these people in who wanted something like this, and now you might be able to LARP it into existence. And what I think the next step is is identifying the Urbit community is actually the killer app. But that's the thing: if you think about it, that's what keeps you coming back every day to bash through the various idiosyncrasies of Port or Urbit Notes or Urbit Groups. Like a lot of this stuff is not polished, but it's a community that's actually keeping people coming back if they are DAUs, which is non-obvious because that's not what the project started with, right? It started as a technology. It has become really a community first and foremost, related to the concept of the network state, where the community is actually the primary thing. It's not like the franc of France has some amazing tech, it is the currency of that community, and it is the community that's keeping people there. Okay, so when you have that lens on things, that Urbit's killer app is actually its community, then that's what we want to polish. Okay, this should get to the level of a Slack or a Discord. Urbit should be decentralized Discord. It could be a lot more. We should absolutely nail this. And the way you've nailed it is you go to somebody who's in Slack or in Discord and you go feature for feature. You don't say, "Oh, Urbit can do everything but it's not on this thing," but yet you buff this area of Mars. Okay, this is the thing in my view to focus on, because anybody who's doing a Web 3 Discord has private keys to manage, understand sovereignty. They'll want to run many programs within their chat environment that use local computing. You might want to do a digital signature or something like that. You'll need to build the equivalent of slash commands in Discord and make it as backwards compatible as possible. If you notice, for example, new projects in crypto, backwards compatibility is a huge thing. The EVM is something where people market new projects as being EVM compatible. Windows, or rather Microsoft, for years made Word files backwards compatible. So what you should do is really go and look at Slack, look at Discord, and make Urbit a better decentralized Discord. Your community is already there every single day poking each other. This is a thing that will make it better. Once you've got a better decentralized Discord and you've proven extreme strength in one thing where you can win against Slack and Discord on the merits, not on the potential but on the realized potential, then I think you'll actually have something. So this is what I would encourage everybody here to focus on. Okay, so that's how I think Urbit can be part of the exit. Because if so, you don't just have a network of little personal servers, you don't just have a bunch of sovereign individuals, you have a bunch of sovereign collectives within the larger Urbit community. And that's the kind of thing which can potentially give rise to network states. So thank you very much.
Should I take any questions or go next? Eye, Josh. Good, go take questions. All right, go ahead.