About Larry Ad
Larry Adam, Chief Investment Officer at Raymond James, has appeared frequently on financial news programs in 2025 and early 2026 to discuss market and economic conditions. He has described himself as "neutral" on small-cap stocks, stating that despite a recent rally, the sector has seen earnings estimates revised down by more than 10% in each of the last four years. Adam has also expressed surprise at the market's continued strength, noting that the S&P 500 had a strong summer rally and that pullbacks have been historically shallow. He has attributed some of the market's resilience to investors learning "not to overreact initially to policy initiatives," citing examples such as tariffs and deportations that he said did not have the negative impact some expected.
Adam has identified technology, industrials, and healthcare as his three favorite sectors, citing their strong earnings growth. He has stated that he believes the worst of the tariff situation is over but that tariffs will still impact the economy and earnings, leading him to forecast two Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025. He has also pointed to signs of a slowing economy, including weakening employment conditions and lower-end consumers feeling the "pinch of higher tariffs." While he has said he believes the bull market will continue, he has cautioned that valuations are in the 95th percentile and that a "digestive period" may be needed after a rapid recovery from earlier market losses.
Source: AI-verified profile updated from Larry Ad's recent appearances.
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✨ AI-enhanced transcript with speaker attribution
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Rick Santelli0:00
That equivalent level in a ten year. Brian.
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Brian0:03
Well, four and three quarters. I know a lot of potential home buyers hoping we do not get to that level. Rick Santelli, Rick, thank you very much.
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Rick Santelli0:12
All right, now let's get right back to the stock side of the money story. Joining us now is Larry Adam. He is Chief Investment Officer at Raymond James. And Larry, you say there's really three T's that kind of go into the market right now: time, technicals, and triggers. May I be so bold as to add a fourth one, which would be Tehran, because I'm sure your points are well noted, but there's this stuff happening in the Middle East that's pretty serious and dangerous that the market seems to be ignoring right now.
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Larry Adam0:43
Yeah, well, that Tehran would fall under the trigger, right? And there are some triggers that we have to be mindful of. And as you just mentioned, that is one thing that we continue to watch. But our base case, just like the rest of the market, is that we're probably going to see de-escalation over time, because you even heard the President today say that he doesn't know if Americans have the stomach to see much more of a kinetic type of action over there. And in fact, if you look at some of the missiles that are going off, they're really not damaging oil infrastructure. They're targeting other things. So our base case is hopefully that over the next month or so, we do get some form of de-escalation, a deal. And that by the end of this year, we'll see energy prices closer to like $75 per barrel. And that will be a good thing for consumers. Take off some pressure of inflation and, you know, less complicate things for the Fed.
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Rick Santelli1:35
Well, it's obviously clear and based on the conversations I had on and off the record a couple of days ago in DC, more oil is getting out of the Strait than maybe some of the official reports, if you will. There's also pipelines, reduce China demand. All in all, so oil is at 90. Is oil, and I'm not talking my book as the energy person, but is oil kind of running the show right now, or is it a sideshow to everything? AI?
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Larry Adam2:03
I think it's a sideshow because right now, when you look at the markets, the fundamental driver is the technology sector, right? I mean, if you just combine two sectors, which is technology and communication services, it's 50% of the index. But to your point, I don't think you should lose sight of energy because right now, if you look at those S&P hours, right, we're potentially going down to the lowest levels that we've seen pretty much in history, or at least over the last 40 years. And that's been one of the things that we've been using really to offset. To add to your point, some of the oil that's been going onto the market, the US increased production, some of the increased production you've seen from Canada, Venezuela, right, Norway that's been helping to keep prices contained as well. So I think that we can't lose sight of that. But for the market, remember, the market's not the economy. And it's really all about tech.
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Rick Santelli2:51
I love you said that. I've said that for years. It's so true, Larry. People say, well, the economy is this and that and the stock market. I'm like, they're separate things. They're related, right? There's a cousin that you've met a few times and maybe you know him or her pretty well, but they're not living in the same house. Are you keeping your 7650 target for the S&P 500 this year?
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Larry Adam3:11
Yes. I mean, the reason we put those three T's out is that we're approaching 7650. And we were just telling people to be a little bit more cautious here in the near term. You know, one thing that I would mention is when it comes to technology, right, the technology sector just entered correction stage yesterday. We're down more than 10%. But I've been telling investors that that's like deja vu. Because if you look back since we've been in this bull market over the last three and a half years, the technology sector has had six corrections of 10% or more. The S&P 500, in aggregate, has only had two. But over that time period, technology has rewarded you for being patient and staying committed to it. It's been up basically double the S&P 500. And then the other thing I tell people is that when it comes to technology, don't make your decisions during the non-earnings season. Because if you look back during the primary earnings season of tech companies, the tech sector has...
